asg70 wrote:As strange as it sounds, Tesla is both demand AND production constrained. It can't build enough cars that it currently offers that people want and it can't/won't make the ones that prospective buyers want (entry level 3 and Model Y). It also made things that much worse by retiring the base model S and X. Meanwhile, the tax credits phase out and competition starts coming around from all sides. They also may still have a huge inventory of RWD Model 3s which they had seriously overproduced and nobody wants, plus all those cars rejected for quality issues that are in no-man's land. Seems like the only thing that's really propping them up right now is entering the european market but I think the (upscale) market in the US is at or near saturation with most sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper cars and/or the Model Y with reservations canceling left and right.
Well, you're certainly reflecting several of the points the bears / shorts make on investment discussion / article sites like Seeking Alpha.
Some of these things they're doing to themselves re production limitations, etc. are simply due (IMO) to lack of capital, which the bears have been screaming is a huge problem, for years.
At some point the pendulum will have to swing one way or the other, and, as always, it will all seem PERFECTLY "obvious" in hindsight. Yet as one who invests regularly, and speculates a little (for both fun and attempts at profit) -- I just don't know how to approach Tesla for that. It's an enigma shrouded in much shouting and too little (and too infrequent) transparent disclosure, IMO.
It's easy to speculate that demand is a big problem. But is it really, especially over time? I contend that's the biggest fundamental difference between the fanbois and the shorts. The fanbois believe that massive cumulative demand over time, several "skazillion" cars sold over time, costs lowering due to learning and volume, and a huge first-mover advantage will win out over ALL the issues. And that Tesla will be wildly profitable in time, and the stock will command some huge price. Like an Amazon, a Microsoft, an Intel, etc. -- a tech triumph. The shorts / big bears think the problems will outweigh Tesla's ability to rapidly grow, and that the joke about making up for losses with volume spells disaster for Tesla down the road. Capital constraints (causing them to miss MANY goals, especially re being very late), quality problems, and increasingly obvious (to the mainstream media) serious service issues, are the main sign posts they use to confirm they're right.
Looking at the sites like Seeking Alpha and the article comments, I'd estimate I'm one of the TINY minority who admits it's too hard to tell. ("A strange game, the only way to win is not to play" -- The Wargames computer, Joshua (if memory serves)).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.