[Outcast_Searcher]

Once again, these folks have real insight into the automotive world. And they recognize that the EV world is different. At 46 minutes he talks about the coming crash...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5gd2JElzYg

They also talk about the fact that hybrid technology is not worth the trouble. EVs will pass it by so fast they won't ever make money.

If the comment about the big BEV crash is true, then that will be GOOD for HEV's in the mean time. For the umpteenth time -- that's a TRANSITIONAL technology until BEV's are truly ready for prime time.

I think the primary variable for the HEV is simply the cost of gasoline over time. Toyota and Honda, to name two examples, already have the technology down very will in solid middle class cars -- at VERY reasonable prices, given the mileage improvements over the pure ICE versions.

...

I guess I hope the BEV price crash prediction comes true. I'd love to buy a fine BEV in 5 years for next to nothing -- but from a mainstream manufacturer who is servicing them well.

[dolanbaker]

A new battery technology that will improve on Tesla's current batteries.

Tesla has announced the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies ($MXWL), a San Diego-based battery technology company for $218M, in an all stock deal. Maxwell specializes in ultracapacitors & has recently validated its breakthrough Dry Battery Electrode technology. Will Tesla leverage Maxwell's IP to bring longer range, more efficient BEVs to market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60EiAklzj9I

Looking at Maxwell's stock, Maxwell was failing. If they have great technology, why can't they sell it profitably? I'll believe there is something truly meaningful to come out of this deal for Tesla when I see it.

I think Musk is either throwing some money at hoping for a hail Mary on some battery improvement, or it's just another distraction. Look how well Solar City is working out (NOT).

I assume you didn't watch the video, it appears that Maxwell are dumping all their other technologies to concentrate on their emerging battery/ultracapacitor technology, it is the ultracapacitors that make fast charging possible.

[Outcast_Searcher]

A new battery technology that will improve on Tesla's current batteries.

Tesla has announced the acquisition of Maxwell Technologies ($MXWL), a San Diego-based battery technology company for $218M, in an all stock deal. Maxwell specializes in ultracapacitors & has recently validated its breakthrough Dry Battery Electrode technology. Will Tesla leverage Maxwell's IP to bring longer range, more efficient BEVs to market?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60EiAklzj9I

Looking at Maxwell's stock, Maxwell was failing. If they have great technology, why can't they sell it profitably? I'll believe there is something truly meaningful to come out of this deal for Tesla when I see it.

I think Musk is either throwing some money at hoping for a hail Mary on some battery improvement, or it's just another distraction. Look how well Solar City is working out (NOT).

I assume you didn't watch the video, it appears that Maxwell are dumping all their other technologies to concentrate on their emerging battery/ultracapacitor technology, it is the ultracapacitors that make fast charging possible.

I'm aware they're focusing on ultracapacitors. I'm also aware that various untracapacitor efforts have come and been bankrupted, rather than changed the car world. Just like hot fusion might someday succeed, but just because folks are working on it is FAR from it being a done deal.

Enthusiasm, especially re Tesla, does NOT mean unqualified success.

Again -- I believe there is a reason the Market was saying it lacked confidence in Maxwell, given the way its stock price had behaved for years.

I'm not saying good things MIGHT not come from this. But watching an obvious Tesla fanboi wave his arms and make predictions on Youtube isn't exactly how you'd want to invest your pension funds.

[KaiserJeep]

Baha, get a clue. In the vast majority of counties and states across the country, single power companies have a monopoly. That would be because they built and own and maintain the power distribution grid. That grid is the major asset owned by a power company, they have many times the money required for their power plants invested in the power grid. This dates back to the competition between Edison and Westinghouse in the area around Niagra Falls, when several cities had both AC (Westinghouse) and DC (Edison) power grids. Edison subsequently lost.

The monopoly power companies are regulated by PUCs - Public Utility Commisions. Often these also regulate gas companies and water utilities. These PUCs are made up of politicians, directly elected or appointed by elected officials, which are answerable to the voters like yourself.

If you are unhappy about the rules, start a PR campaign to replace elected officials with others that share your views. Then volunteer to serve on the Committee making the new rules. Blaming the power company is useless and inappropriate.

Nor will you necessarily be happier with new rules. YES, California deregulated power and we have multiple power companies. We also have Net Metering and time-of-day power rates. However, the grid is being neglected, which sparked last year's terrible wildfires, killing 79 people.

[dolanbaker]

Sorry, I have strayed off topic. The car has almost 4000 miles on it. I wish that AI knew how to wash itself.

Just plot a return route to the nearest car wash and send it off.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Sorry, I have strayed off topic. The car has almost 4000 miles on it. I wish that AI knew how to wash itself.

Just plot a return route to the nearest car wash and send it off.

If/when true level 5 FSD is for real and the rules, insurance, cops, etc. allow it, sending my car in for maintenance, and having it return when done, and I never have to fiddle with it, seems really nice.

I still think we're decades away from that, except for very limited/specialized areas. Even the experts who are actually working on the problem (vs. the random clueless peanut gallery) are highly divided on the real world timeframe for true level 5 FSD.

It reminds me of the Lewis Black joke re flying cars. He figures they'll be available for his funeral.

[Outcast_Searcher]

This is a terrible situation. I have been talking about this for years. I am not going to accept a monopoly for any reason. If the current business model doesn't support me in an effective way...change it!

OTOH, there's a reason the PSC system exists. In some cases, natural monopolies make sense.

I have a friend who has spent decades fighting quasi-government entities like utilities and losing. Losing jobs. Spending time in jail. Losing customers, because powerful people his pisses off whisper in their ear.

Aside from annoying some people with nuisance lawsuits, which are almost always rejected for lack of foundation, improper scope, or just being loony (my impression/opinion), it's not like he's changed things.

So good luck fighting the monopolies. However, if the smart green grid really does get fleshed out and widespread and works well, competition over time will do the job FOR you, just like it already has to some extent in various utilities.

Example: AT&T compared to what it was 40 years ago. When the time came, I happily fired AT&T, and I didn't have to do anything more strenuous than make a brief phone call.

[dolanbaker]

Sorry, I have strayed off topic. The car has almost 4000 miles on it. I wish that AI knew how to wash itself.

Just plot a return route to the nearest car wash and send it off.

If/when true level 5 FSD is for real and the rules, insurance, cops, etc. allow it, sending my car in for maintenance, and having it return when done, and I never have to fiddle with it, seems really nice.

I still think we're decades away from that, except for very limited/specialized areas. Even the experts who are actually working on the problem (vs. the random clueless peanut gallery) are highly divided on the real world timeframe for true level 5 FSD.

It reminds me of the Lewis Black joke re flying cars. He figures they'll be available for his funeral.

I think that in reality, the level 5 vehicles will at best be limited to motorways and trunk roads where other road users & pedestrians are banned and I also expect that most of the self driving vehicles will be artics driving between distribution depots, where they'll exchange container trailers before recharging and then going to the delivery depot.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-

This is a terrible situation. I have been talking about this for years. I am not going to accept a monopoly for any reason. If the current business model doesn't support me in an effective way...change it!

Providing solar power to poor people seems to be a hot topic around here. It is common for people to dismiss solar power because it is too expensive up front, even though it is cheaper over a 20 year period. Allowing me to install solar for free and then charge a monthly fee is a way for all people to afford clean energy.

But the rich shareholders are threatened by that. They better be...because I am going to put them down.

Sorry, I have strayed off topic. The car has almost 4000 miles on it. I wish that AI knew how to wash itself.

The deal you mention is similar to the PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) that I have in place for my rooftop solar. Sunrun Corporation paid for the solar panels, inverter, cellular modem, installation, etc. and PG&E manages the power production. So far, that means that they turn off the inverter to avoid backfeeding the grid while they work on it - which has not happened yet. The default behavior during a power outage is to wait 5 minutes after the power is restored, then go online. That HAS happened a couple of times.

Effectively I am leasing the panels for $92/month. That was 90% of the average monthly power bill for the 36 months prior to the Solar PV install. Then I retired my pool pump and attic ventilator, and now I produce more power than I use, and get electric credits which offset some of the gas which is in the same bill as electricity.

As for your Tesla Model 3, after the recent layoff of 7% of the workforce in nearby Fremont, Musk announced that the Model 3 base price was reduced by $2000 effective January 1, and by another $1100 effective February 7. He hasn't yet met the boasted $35K base price, but he's getting closer: $44,100 after adding delivery charges.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-

This is a terrible situation. I have been talking about this for years. I am not going to accept a monopoly for any reason. If the current business model doesn't support me in an effective way...change it!

Providing solar power to poor people seems to be a hot topic around here. It is common for people to dismiss solar power because it is too expensive up front, even though it is cheaper over a 20 year period. Allowing me to install solar for free and then charge a monthly fee is a way for all people to afford clean energy.

But the rich shareholders are threatened by that. They better be...because I am going to put them down.

Sorry, I have strayed off topic. The car has almost 4000 miles on it. I wish that AI knew how to wash itself.

The deal you mention is similar to the PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) that I have in place for my rooftop solar. Sunrun Corporation paid for the solar panels, inverter, cellular modem, installation, etc. and PG&E manages the power production. So far, that means that they turn off the inverter to avoid backfeeding the grid while they work on it - which has not happened yet. The default behavior during a power outage is to wait 5 minutes after the power is restored, then go online. That HAS happened a couple of times.

Effectively I am leasing the panels for $92/month. That was 90% of the average monthly power bill for the 36 months prior to the Solar PV install. Then I retired my pool pump and attic ventilator, and now I produce more power than I use, and get electric credits which offset some of the gas which is in the same bill as electricity.

As for your Tesla Model 3, after the recent layoff of 7% of the workforce in nearby Fremont, Musk announced that the Model 3 base price was reduced by $2000 effective January 1, and by another $1100 effective February 7. He hasn't yet met the boasted $35K base price, but he's getting closer: $44,100 after adding delivery charges.

[Outcast_Searcher]

As for your Tesla Model 3, after the recent layoff of 7% of the workforce in nearby Fremont, Musk announced that the Model 3 base price was reduced by $2000 effective January 1, and by another $1100 effective February 7. He hasn't yet met the boasted $35K base price, but he's getting closer: $44,100 after adding delivery charges.

Lowering the price $3100 to mostly offset the loss of $3750 in FITC (so far) is one thing. Making a meaningful profit margin on the $35K cars, including the debt load, is another.

Tesla is highly production constrained. It is barely at 50% (reliably) of the projected 10K Model 3 production per week rate Musk was so adamantly confident about for 4Q 2018. It needs a LOT of capital to expand the infrastructure for promised (fairly soon now) Model Y production, pickup truck production, Semi Truck production, Roadster production, charger network buildout, service center buildout, parts inventory buildout, improving service getting an increasing amount of negative attention from the media, etc. Oh, and the quality / durability issues causing the need for so much service -- those need to be fixed ASAP as well, of course.

There is, it seems to me, a HUGE gulf projected by the Tesla fanboi base and the Tesla stock short base (who keep projecting short term bankruptcy, which makes them even sillier than the fanbois, IMO). I'm smack in the middle re my assessment, but facts matter. And the longer Tesla takes to either address the issues so it can grow rapidly, or become a quality niche player for rich folks -- the competition, which is accelerating rapidly, constrains their profit margins more and more.

[asg70]

As strange as it sounds, Tesla is both demand AND production constrained. It can't build enough cars that it currently offers that people want and it can't/won't make the ones that prospective buyers want (entry level 3 and Model Y). It also made things that much worse by retiring the base model S and X. Meanwhile, the tax credits phase out and competition starts coming around from all sides. They also may still have a huge inventory of RWD Model 3s which they had seriously overproduced and nobody wants, plus all those cars rejected for quality issues that are in no-man's land. Seems like the only thing that's really propping them up right now is entering the european market but I think the (upscale) market in the US is at or near saturation with most sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper cars and/or the Model Y with reservations canceling left and right.

[Outcast_Searcher]

As strange as it sounds, Tesla is both demand AND production constrained. It can't build enough cars that it currently offers that people want and it can't/won't make the ones that prospective buyers want (entry level 3 and Model Y). It also made things that much worse by retiring the base model S and X. Meanwhile, the tax credits phase out and competition starts coming around from all sides. They also may still have a huge inventory of RWD Model 3s which they had seriously overproduced and nobody wants, plus all those cars rejected for quality issues that are in no-man's land. Seems like the only thing that's really propping them up right now is entering the european market but I think the (upscale) market in the US is at or near saturation with most sitting on the sidelines waiting for cheaper cars and/or the Model Y with reservations canceling left and right.

Well, you're certainly reflecting several of the points the bears / shorts make on investment discussion / article sites like Seeking Alpha.

Some of these things they're doing to themselves re production limitations, etc. are simply due (IMO) to lack of capital, which the bears have been screaming is a huge problem, for years.

At some point the pendulum will have to swing one way or the other, and, as always, it will all seem PERFECTLY "obvious" in hindsight. Yet as one who invests regularly, and speculates a little (for both fun and attempts at profit) -- I just don't know how to approach Tesla for that. It's an enigma shrouded in much shouting and too little (and too infrequent) transparent disclosure, IMO.

It's easy to speculate that demand is a big problem. But is it really, especially over time? I contend that's the biggest fundamental difference between the fanbois and the shorts. The fanbois believe that massive cumulative demand over time, several "skazillion" cars sold over time, costs lowering due to learning and volume, and a huge first-mover advantage will win out over ALL the issues. And that Tesla will be wildly profitable in time, and the stock will command some huge price. Like an Amazon, a Microsoft, an Intel, etc. -- a tech triumph. The shorts / big bears think the problems will outweigh Tesla's ability to rapidly grow, and that the joke about making up for losses with volume spells disaster for Tesla down the road. Capital constraints (causing them to miss MANY goals, especially re being very late), quality problems, and increasingly obvious (to the mainstream media) serious service issues, are the main sign posts they use to confirm they're right.

Looking at the sites like Seeking Alpha and the article comments, I'd estimate I'm one of the TINY minority who admits it's too hard to tell. ("A strange game, the only way to win is not to play" -- The Wargames computer, Joshua (if memory serves)).

[asg70]

It's easy to speculate that demand is a big problem. But is it really, especially over time?

Technically speaking there shouldn't BE any demand for EVs because oil prices aren't high enough. In that respect the glass is half-full. But in terms of the line of reservation holders who piled up almost three years ago with the hopes of a $35K Model + incentives, Tesla has squandered that goodwill.

More on the topic here. Chock full of red flags.

As far as the "over time" goes, I think it was Mark Cuban who says that success in business has mostly to do with timing. You can have a good strategy but if you don't move at the right time, you're screwed. I think Tesla is at the extreme end of its window of opportunity to become the sort of success that evangelists have been clinging to all this time. Success to them may begin to shift over to avoiding bankruptcy and settling into being a boutique player rather than a dominator who puts the old guard out of business.

The problem with fanbois is they don't appreciate timing. Their Tesla narratives were set back before Tesla burned through so much capital and made so many errors and before the majors started getting serious with EV roadmaps. It's similar to how so many doomers here are still carrying over mindsets from "Drill baby drill" 2008 hysterics. The situation has changed but they haven't acknowledged those changes. It's a frog in the pot syndrome. Slow change tends to be ignored.

[EdwinSm]

In the latest BP Energy Outlook (2019) they make an interesting comment on measuring EV penetration. This is under their "ET" model (evolving transition, which I take to being close to BAU)

The use of electric passenger cars is amplified by the emergence of autonomous cars (AVs) from the early 2020s offering low cost, shared-mobility services, predominantly in electric cars. As a result, around 25% of passenger vehicle km are powered by electricity in 2040, even though only 15% of cars are electrified.

So maybe we should not be looking at just the sales figures.

At the end of the report they highlight differences from last year's report. Interestingly Renewable Energy seems to be growing faster than they previously estimated (reducing use for oil). Go Brother Son and Sister Wind

Link to browse or download the report: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html

[KaiserJeep]

You also have to acknowledge that Tesla's all look alike, with the single exception of the out-of-production Roadster. The Model S looks like the SUV which looks like the Model 3. Nice enough looking cars, and the shape and aerodynamics are necessary parts of the design. But every few years the other brands get restyled and look fresh, the Tesla does not.

What Tesla has not addressed and probably never should address is the needs of the booney-dwellers and suburbanites. We need 4WD, strong cold weather performance, high ground clearance, off-road capability, and cargo capacity. My Jeep Wrangler meets 90% of my needs, including daily transport and extreme off-road performance, and when it doesn't, it has a tow hitch and will pull a small trailer. It's major shortcoming is poor fuel efficiency and there is no helping that, it weighs 2.5 tons loaded, and has cast iron powertrain and suspension pieces for ruggedness, and all the aerodynamic efficiency of a tall wide brick with it's flat windshield.

Even more popular than Jeeps, for those who don't need extreme offroad performance, are 2WD and 4WD light trucks in the under-1-ton cargo capacities. The Ford F-150 fulfills a real need that city dwellers just do not have, and few even understand. It carries anything you want in the bed, from motorcycles/ATVs/Jet Skis to bulk topsoil for your yard or vegetable patch, or hay for your horses.

Tesla has saturated his market for luxury sedans. He should now make a sportier vehicle which can be had in both 2-door and 4-door versions, with options for hardtop, soft top, and Targa. This will attract younger buyers.

I did sit in the Model 3 when it was new. To me, it felt more like something I would buy for my daughter (while she was in school) rather than myself. However, my kid chose a 4-cylinder Jeep Wrangler for her first car, in blue. Her mother owned a White Jeep Cherokee, while I had the vintage Kaiser Jeepster in flaming Ferrari Red. Red, White, and Blue Jeeps, sitting out front, made a statement in my neighborhood.

Feeling sad today, I sold the Jeepster, and we are having the Open House for our California home this weekend, starting in about 4 hours. The realtors have been making swoops like birds of prey attacking a food critter.

[rockdoc123]

What Tesla has not addressed and probably never should address is the needs of the booney-dwellers and suburbanites. We need 4WD, strong cold weather performance, high ground clearance, off-road capability, and cargo capacity.

There are a number of new options for off road capable electric or hybrid vehicles. Range Rover now makes both the Range Rover and Range Rover Sport in a PHEV model (plug in hybrid electic). Jaguar makes the i-Pace which is a fully electric SUV. Audi just came out with the e-tron, a fully electric SUV. Mercedes has the fully electric EQC compact SUV (apparently already sold out for the year). KIA is supposed to be coming out with an electric version of it's Niro compact SUV. BMW has the iX3 fully electric SUV which is very similar to the X3.

To be honest I don't know why folks are fixated on Tesla. I've had a look at the RR PHEV, the Jaguar i-Pace and the Audi e-tron and they are all very well built vehicles with specs that are more than adequate for the normal "booney-dweller/surbanite (I are one) and at a price point that is very competive (in fact cheaper by a long shot than Tesla's SUV). Now if you want something that will go 0-60 in a nano-second then maybe that is why you might be more interested in Tesla, although honestly I don't know why someone would need that.

[asg70]

I guess the demand isn't based on economics, it's CO2 and guilt.

You'd be guessing wrong. Green yuppies are a very small minority and it's not something Tesla can count on. People may switch over from ICE once the economics make sense...which it doesn't with Tesla.

They have created this transition and I am riding the wave.

Yep, this thread is all about you.

You still haven't acknowledged the fact that the Tesla is a superior vehicle.

Look at the whole picture. Check out the quality and reliability data. Tesla is seriously lacking in those areas. If you even look at your paint funny it will nick because it's probably only a nanometer thick and it's probably got hairs and dust embedded in it from being built under a tent, etc...

[asg70]

KIA is supposed to be coming out with an electric version of it's Niro compact SUV.

The Niro and the Kona are both FWD-only. The form-factor of the Hyundai/Kia chassis is that they're flexible enough to support ICE or EV but the downside is it can't be dual-motor. The ICE 4WD is implemented via the axle which is an approach EVs don't use (presumably due to needing room underneath for the battery pack).

To be honest I don't know why folks are fixated on Tesla. I've had a look at the RR PHEV, the Jaguar i-Pace and the Audi e-tron and they are all very well built vehicles with specs that are more than adequate

The reason for the fixation is some here feel if Tesla fails it should indicate EVs overall will fail and we can finally get back to proper old-fashioned Mad Max peak oil doomerism!

Well, it's possible for Tesla to fail and EVs to just march onward regardless.

[GHung]

........ The Ford F-150 fulfills a real need that city dwellers just do not have, and few even understand. It carries anything you want in the bed, from motorcycles/ATVs/Jet Skis to bulk topsoil for your yard or vegetable patch, or hay for your horses. .......

Ford confirms all-electric F-Series pickup truck coming

https://electrek.co/2019/01/16/ford-all ... kup-truck/

...... oh, and enjoy your Fiats.