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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 15:20:25

asg70 wrote:They're in the CAR business. They have to make CARS. If they didn't have an EV project they would sell ICE cars by default anyway, so they might as well put the money to good use.

Right. For them (and us, IMO, given Tesla's struggles), it's GOOD that they can sell ICE cars in the mean time. We want to end up with a robust, competitve, BEV industry, with great BEV's available for all consumers. To get there is going to take a LOT of money. ICE buyers are a logical, and huge source of such money, and they're paying voluntarily.

IMO, only unrealistic purist Tesla fanboi types would hate that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 08:52:51

Ford to make all-electric version of its F-150 truck

America's most popular vehicle is going electric. Ford will make an all-electric plugin version of the F-150 pickup truck.
"We're going to be electrifying the F-series — battery electric and hybrid," Jim Farley, Ford's president of global markets, said at a Deutsche Bank conference in Detroit Wednesday.
The company isn't giving any details on the truck yet, including when it will go on sale. .....

....... Ford had previously announced it would make a hybrid version of the F-150. The all-electric truck would be in addition to that.
Ford also plans to make an all-electric version of the Transit van, Farley said. .....

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/business ... index.html
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 13:02:42

The news from nearby Fremont, CA this morning: Tesla will lay off another 3000 employees, about 7% of the current workforce. This is an attempt to make the Model 3 more price-competitive, by reducing the base model from $40K to $35K. This reduction hardly matters, since they don't actually build base models. The cheapest Model 3's have the larger battery (in theory an option) and most of the remaining features are implemented via software changes. They are suffering from reduced demand due to the expiring government price incentives.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 13:25:44

The future driver of EV adoption will be cost-effective short-haul fleet vehicles like the F-150; not the early adopters buying the premium status cars that have kept Tesla afloat (such as it is).
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 15:38:49

KaiserJeep wrote:This is an attempt to make the Model 3 more price-competitive, by reducing the base model from $40K to $35K.


It's encouraging that Tesla is at least acknowledging that they are failing in their mission. But I'm not sure they're really capable of making it happen.

Moral of the story: timing matters.

They weren't able to get the base model out in time to benefit from the tax credits and if they can't release the base model soon then VW and others will eat their lunch. If they don't seize the bottom end then they will be relegated forever as a boutique carmaker.

If they can't also fix their QC/reliability/customer-service problems then they may also lose the luxury market as well since competitors like Audi, Porsche, Jaguar, etc... are gunning for that first.

The fanbois who kept insisting we give Tesla time to find its footing don't realize that competition doesn't stand still. Eventually the window of opportunity closes.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:09:56

The worst case scenario is that Tesla goes under and their battery gigafactories are bought by other car manufacturers to enhance their own BEV plans.
It's often the way with new companies with innovative ideas trying to muscle in on an existing crowded market.

I don't see that happening though, the demand for EVs is too high and the supply is still lacking in the volumes needed.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:20:20

dolanbaker wrote:The worst case scenario is that Tesla goes under and their battery gigafactories are bought by other car manufacturers to enhance their own BEV plans.
It's often the way with new companies with innovative ideas trying to muscle in on an existing crowded market.

I don't see that happening though, the demand for EVs is too high and the supply is still lacking in the volumes needed.

Right. It's not like Tesla's expertise re BEV's will disappear. It really doesn't matter, in the big scheme of things, whether Tesla makes it as a niche player (which they well might, IMO), ends up big, or goes bankrupt. In a decade, and in 3 decades, EV's will be about the same proportion of the car market overall, regardless.

Now, the impact to Tesla fanbois vs. Tesla shorts and their pocketbooks, that's a different story.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 20:57:50

EV Pseudo: "We have to buy an EV now in order to avoid the massive inflation from EV's"

Ford Motor Company: "We have to sell more ICE now as to enable the EV translation later"

Here is baha in the very near future:

[Burger Joint]: "Hi, can I take your order"

[Baha]: "Can I exchange my Model 3 for a Hamburger. I'm hungry"

[Burger Joint]: "Sorry, the resale value of the Model 3 is currently 0.38 cents. We have nothing on the menu except napkins for that price"
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:01:57

Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:09:03

GHung wrote:
Ford to make all-electric version of its F-150 truck

America's most popular vehicle is going electric. Ford will make an all-electric plugin version of the F-150 pickup truck.
"We're going to be electrifying the F-series — battery electric and hybrid," Jim Farley, Ford's president of global markets, said at a Deutsche Bank conference in Detroit Wednesday.
The company isn't giving any details on the truck yet, including when it will go on sale. .....

....... Ford had previously announced it would make a hybrid version of the F-150. The all-electric truck would be in addition to that.
Ford also plans to make an all-electric version of the Transit van, Farley said. .....

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/business ... index.html


The last time I was in the local Ford Stealership, the Proprietor Dude had his head in his hands and was balling. Not advertising any more, shitcanned the sales staff. I mentioned 'EV' and it was like fingernails on a chalkboard to his ears.

The Coal plants were Fords lifeline...now they are going out of bidness within 2 years. The gas pumps in my bankrupt Coal town (now Weed Economy), will be gone in 2 years time.

MMT is sure working great. Next stop, Banana Republic.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:18:59

Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.


Kewl. More GrowOps and BirdNest Remediators on the way. The Solution is more Automation to make EV's, of course.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 00:19:17

Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.

Cog, that $920 Billion convertible debt due is old news. The main thing that today did re that event was, with a 13% drop in the price and bad news on earnings projections, makes it look a LOT more likely they're on the hook for the full amount in cash -- which would consume about a third of their available cash, per the pundits. Bulls had been much more sanguine about the $360ish price earlier.

What looks different is the earnings outlook, due to Musk's letter to employees today, re the layoffs, etc.

First, much lower 4Q profit likely than earlier expected. Much smaller than 3Q profit, where the bulls had been projecting a higher profit.

Second, and a much bigger deal, IMO, is that Musk stated that profits in '19 were going to be tough to attain, and take things going right (I am paraphrasing). This is in sharp contrast to his earlier confident claims that it was pure profits as far as the eye can see from now on (again, I'm paraphrasing).

Small profits or even losses is a VERY big hit to the expansion plans Musk had been projecting re the supercharger network, more factories, more parts inventory, more service centers, and for producing the Model Y, Roadster V2, Semi Truck, etc. by the planned dates.

...

So now it looks like Tesla either has to raise a lot of cash at junk bond interest rates in a rising rate environment (despite claims it wouldn't), or it has to cut back a lot on plans, which will hurt service, revenues, growth, etc.

I don't blame shareholders for viewing that unexpected news quite negatively.

And you're right, in isolation, just the 7% workforce cut to save on costs would have likely been seen as a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 00:21:52

StarvingLion wrote:
Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.


Kewl. More GrowOps and BirdNest Remediators on the way. The Solution is more Automation to make EV's, of course.

Bad news for Tesla. Doesn't matter to the EV industry overall, at all. In fact, the more Tesla stumbles, the better for Tesla's emerging wave of BEV competitors.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 11:22:53

Looking at the area under the curves, you are still consuming more than you produce with the EV charging at night. I understand the advantages of the variable rate, but obviously you are more grid-dependant than before the EV.

The next step towards "off-grid" capability requires both more energy production and more storage. Perhaps a medium-sized active tracking array and a second Powerwall. That of course is not very economical, and it's unlikely you can produce your own power at 6 cents per kwh. Note that I said "active tracking" to make power production more linear and fill in the corners on the energy production curve.

I guess you really need to decide what your overall objective is. If off-grid living is what you desire, the EV did not improve the power situation. If just understanding the limitations was the objective, you are there.

Have you considered a wind turbine? Turbines often produce usable power all night long.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 12:57:15

baha wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Looking at the area under the curves, you are still consuming more than you produce with the EV charging at night. I understand the advantages of the variable rate, but obviously you are more grid-dependant than before the EV.


What I really want is to be FF and CO2 free. Since I live about 15 miles upwind of a Nuclear power plant my net-metering is truly CO2 free. I am very close to my goal.


You are simply outsourcing your CO2 emissions. The manufacturing and transportation of all the equipment and vehicles you use to live "CO2 free" has released a tremendous amount of CO2 into the atmosphere, it's there now and will be there for a 100 years if junk science is to be believed. When we use the technology of the world we are also responsible for a percentage of the world's pollution, that comes with the things we buy.
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 14:13:16

You are among the few who don't mind a nearby nuke. I have my eye on some cheap beachfront property between two Nuke plants in Wisconsin. By the same reasoning, I would not want to ever live near a coal power plant, which spews toxics in a "deathprint" for tens of miles around the stacks. The coal plant is an assured killer, the nuke plants are the safest form of power genneration known.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 21:17:44

baha wrote:
jawagord wrote:When we use the technology of the world we are also responsible for a percentage of the world's pollution, that comes with the things we buy.


So true. I am a victim of the system. But the choices I make and the things I buy are designed to lower my CO2 footprint. As an individual, that is the best I can do. As a professional, I am working to change the system. What are you doing?


Here is baha's "change":

1. Put the local nuclear pp out of biz and put proceeds in own pocket
2. Make claim on FF's with fake "renewable" "energy" devices that are industrially useless
3. Export inflation from #2 to Oil Companies

In other words,

baha is flat broke.

Thats why Venezuela like oil production is guaranteed for the whole world. Replace Maduro with "Federal" "Reserve" and Venezuela with World Idiocracy and the result is the same: Monstrous drop in oil production.

The Shark Fin lays straight ahead.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 21:21:30

When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?

Answer: Solar+Wind+Batteries is industrially useless junk and the demand is from broke people making claims on oil that will never exist.

The poorz people cannot afford Kerosene.
The Yellow Jackets cannot afford Diesel.
The Ultra Rich are dirt poor. They got paper money rich by shutting down Power Stations. What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 00:31:14

StarvingLion wrote:When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?


Why is it my job to explain this? Have I not been critical enough of Tesla lately?

StarvingLion wrote:What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?


Here's a simple question for you. Is there anything, anything at all, that you like? Obviously you're suffering from some profound amount of unhappiness in your life because there isn't a shred of joy in your life outside of how much you can attempt to killjoy anything and everything.

Do you really expect everyone else to adopt this sort of attitude?

Life really isn't worth living when you adopt an "everything sucks then ya die" attitude. With all of the George Carlin worshipping that doomers do here do you all know how drugged up the guy was through most of his life? And don't even get me started on Mike Ruppert, RIP.

Image

No matter how hopeless the situation may be, it would be better to pick a hill and make your last stand on it as a matter of principle. For most, that's going to be at least cheerleading BEVs and renewables, despite their limitations. But to bash everything the way you do, well, I don't know why you haven't already downed a handful of sleeping pills already.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:52:50

asg70 wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?


Why is it my job to explain this? Have I not been critical enough of Tesla lately?

StarvingLion wrote:What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?


Here's a simple question for you. Is there anything, anything at all, that you like? Obviously you're suffering from some profound amount of unhappiness in your life because there isn't a shred of joy in your life outside of how much you can attempt to killjoy anything and everything.

He doesn't listen. He doesn't learn. He doesn't debate like an adult. He just rants. Both you and I have been plenty critical of Tesla, while saying we like EV's overall.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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