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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 00:21:52

StarvingLion wrote:
Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.


Kewl. More GrowOps and BirdNest Remediators on the way. The Solution is more Automation to make EV's, of course.

Bad news for Tesla. Doesn't matter to the EV industry overall, at all. In fact, the more Tesla stumbles, the better for Tesla's emerging wave of BEV competitors.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 06:14:51

Here is the energy curve of the baha residence. I know it's too big, open it in another window. Red is grid usage, green is PV production, white is self consumption, purple is the EV charger. The charger is connected directly to the grid. It is not backed up by the Powerwall. I don't want the Powerwall to try to charge the car. It would suck it dry in no time. But that means when the grid is down I can't charge. But don't worry, I have two plans.

Plan 1: I will install a 30 amp dryer plug behind the transfer switch that will allow me to charge from solar but I will have to manually control the charge rate. I can also use that plug for my welder.

Plan 2: Tesla is working to establish a comm link between the EV charger and the Energy Gateway (smart transfer switch). They both have an RS-485 interface and a CPU. Then the EV charger will be controlled by the Gateway and can automatically charge from solar as a software setting. I brought this up in the last installer web meeting. They said they are working on it.

The purple spike in the morning is pre-heating the car. At 6am, when the rate goes to 24 cents/kwhr, the Powerwall takes up all the house load. By 9am the solar inverter is carrying the load. The Powerwall absorbs the excess solar production until it is fully charged at 12:30pm. Then the excess is exported to the grid. When the sun goes down the Powerwall again picks up the load until 8pm. At 8pm the rate goes to 6 cents/kwhr. The EV charger automatically comes on and starts charging the car. All this is a software setup that now runs automatically. On this day it took exactly 4 hours to fully charge (30.4 kwhrs). That is $1.82 worth of power to cover one days commute. We went out to dinner after she got home so this day was over 100 miles.

At this point I am using power I have stored on the grid. In May, Duke will zero out my saved power and I will be operating very close to neutral. So I set this all up for maximum efficiency and minimum costs. It will run unattended from now on.

What I want is the area in green to equal the area in red. Netzero. That won't happen in winter, but I should generate some excess the rest of the year.

You should know...The PV has been running for a year and a half. The Powerwall has cycled over 500 times. I still haven't cleaned the panels the first time. I have done ZERO maintenance on the equipment. It just works :)
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 11:22:53

Looking at the area under the curves, you are still consuming more than you produce with the EV charging at night. I understand the advantages of the variable rate, but obviously you are more grid-dependant than before the EV.

The next step towards "off-grid" capability requires both more energy production and more storage. Perhaps a medium-sized active tracking array and a second Powerwall. That of course is not very economical, and it's unlikely you can produce your own power at 6 cents per kwh. Note that I said "active tracking" to make power production more linear and fill in the corners on the energy production curve.

I guess you really need to decide what your overall objective is. If off-grid living is what you desire, the EV did not improve the power situation. If just understanding the limitations was the objective, you are there.

Have you considered a wind turbine? Turbines often produce usable power all night long.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 11:38:46

KaiserJeep wrote:Looking at the area under the curves, you are still consuming more than you produce with the EV charging at night. I understand the advantages of the variable rate, but obviously you are more grid-dependant than before the EV.


All true. But this is January. I expect by March to be making more than I use.

As far as going off-grid. That was the initial plan ten years ago but plans change. What I really want is to be FF and CO2 free. Since I live about 15 miles upwind of a Nuclear power plant my net-metering is truly CO2 free. I am very close to my goal.

Remember, the car IS storage. What I need is better integration and a flexible schedule. It will all come with time.

There is no wind to speak of around here. The trees around me are 100' tall :(

Something that gets overlooked in these discussions is the flexibility of electric power. It doesn't matter what wacky power sources they come up with in the future. Just hook me up to a 240vac feed and I'm good. If it's small, quiet, and clean I'll put one in the backyard.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 12:57:15

baha wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Looking at the area under the curves, you are still consuming more than you produce with the EV charging at night. I understand the advantages of the variable rate, but obviously you are more grid-dependant than before the EV.


What I really want is to be FF and CO2 free. Since I live about 15 miles upwind of a Nuclear power plant my net-metering is truly CO2 free. I am very close to my goal.


You are simply outsourcing your CO2 emissions. The manufacturing and transportation of all the equipment and vehicles you use to live "CO2 free" has released a tremendous amount of CO2 into the atmosphere, it's there now and will be there for a 100 years if junk science is to be believed. When we use the technology of the world we are also responsible for a percentage of the world's pollution, that comes with the things we buy.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 13:37:15

jawagord wrote:When we use the technology of the world we are also responsible for a percentage of the world's pollution, that comes with the things we buy.


So true. I am a victim of the system. But the choices I make and the things I buy are designed to lower my CO2 footprint. As an individual, that is the best I can do. As a professional, I am working to change the system. What are you doing?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 14:13:16

You are among the few who don't mind a nearby nuke. I have my eye on some cheap beachfront property between two Nuke plants in Wisconsin. By the same reasoning, I would not want to ever live near a coal power plant, which spews toxics in a "deathprint" for tens of miles around the stacks. The coal plant is an assured killer, the nuke plants are the safest form of power genneration known.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 21:17:44

baha wrote:
jawagord wrote:When we use the technology of the world we are also responsible for a percentage of the world's pollution, that comes with the things we buy.


So true. I am a victim of the system. But the choices I make and the things I buy are designed to lower my CO2 footprint. As an individual, that is the best I can do. As a professional, I am working to change the system. What are you doing?


Here is baha's "change":

1. Put the local nuclear pp out of biz and put proceeds in own pocket
2. Make claim on FF's with fake "renewable" "energy" devices that are industrially useless
3. Export inflation from #2 to Oil Companies

In other words,

baha is flat broke.

Thats why Venezuela like oil production is guaranteed for the whole world. Replace Maduro with "Federal" "Reserve" and Venezuela with World Idiocracy and the result is the same: Monstrous drop in oil production.

The Shark Fin lays straight ahead.
The "Federal" "Reserve" has no clothes!
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 22 Jan 2019, 21:21:30

When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?

Answer: Solar+Wind+Batteries is industrially useless junk and the demand is from broke people making claims on oil that will never exist.

The poorz people cannot afford Kerosene.
The Yellow Jackets cannot afford Diesel.
The Ultra Rich are dirt poor. They got paper money rich by shutting down Power Stations. What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 00:31:14

StarvingLion wrote:When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?


Why is it my job to explain this? Have I not been critical enough of Tesla lately?

StarvingLion wrote:What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?


Here's a simple question for you. Is there anything, anything at all, that you like? Obviously you're suffering from some profound amount of unhappiness in your life because there isn't a shred of joy in your life outside of how much you can attempt to killjoy anything and everything.

Do you really expect everyone else to adopt this sort of attitude?

Life really isn't worth living when you adopt an "everything sucks then ya die" attitude. With all of the George Carlin worshipping that doomers do here do you all know how drugged up the guy was through most of his life? And don't even get me started on Mike Ruppert, RIP.

Image

No matter how hopeless the situation may be, it would be better to pick a hill and make your last stand on it as a matter of principle. For most, that's going to be at least cheerleading BEVs and renewables, despite their limitations. But to bash everything the way you do, well, I don't know why you haven't already downed a handful of sleeping pills already.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 23 Jan 2019, 21:52:50

asg70 wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:When will asg70 explain why Tesla Motors had to cut prices in the Model 3 when world demand for EV's outstrips supply?


Why is it my job to explain this? Have I not been critical enough of Tesla lately?

StarvingLion wrote:What are they doing, urinating diesel fuel from their liimp dicks while pressing the letter 'O' for Oil on their computers?


Here's a simple question for you. Is there anything, anything at all, that you like? Obviously you're suffering from some profound amount of unhappiness in your life because there isn't a shred of joy in your life outside of how much you can attempt to killjoy anything and everything.

He doesn't listen. He doesn't learn. He doesn't debate like an adult. He just rants. Both you and I have been plenty critical of Tesla, while saying we like EV's overall.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 02:46:46

BTW, if you go back on some of these EV threads, the open question was whether Tesla would succeed with the Model 3 or go down as merely a catalyst for the rest of the industry. From my vantage point it appears the latter is actually starting to play out. They are hurting in just about every area. And supposedly Porsche is saying the majority of those signing up for reservations for Taycans are Tesla customers looking to leave the brand. The same is probably true of Audi eTron and Jaguar iPace. The bloom is off the rose for a lot of one-time loyal customers.

For the longest time EV nuts put all their faith in Tesla and Tesla alone but we're on the cusp of an era where EVs are here to stay. There will be choice. More vehicles, larger production runs, lower price-points. Better features (like dual motor and faster charge speeds). More standardized CCS charging stations. All this will take place under the backdrop of Tesla continuing on this slow-motion trainwreck in which fanbois will continue to strain themselves to avoid conceding how mismanaged it is under Musk.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 07:55:16

asg70 wrote:There will be choice. More vehicles, larger production runs, lower price-points. Better features (like dual motor and faster charge speeds). More standardized CCS charging stations.


I appreciate your speculation. I think your right, but I also think they are overestimating the market and will be disappointed. They will not make profit for several years. We'll see if they stick it out. (whoever 'they' are)

What is their motivation? Are they trying to change the world...or just make profit? Does it matter? I think it does. It matters to me!

The Porsche has a speculative starting price of $80,000. That can only compete with the Model X. Does it seat 6? I don't know. I don't pay attention to cars that don't exist yet. It clearly is not intended to be a car for the masses. Porsche has never made a car for the masses. So no threat to the Model 3 here.

ASG - By your own criteria this means Porsche can never be successful.

VW has a chance. What year is it that they said a car will be available? I hate to tell you but German cars have electrical problems. I wonder if they have fixed that. 6 volt VW beetles used to burst into flames. I wonder what a 128 volt VW will do :twisted:

I'm not really arguing with you. I'm just pointing out some clear biases you have. The EV transition is off and running. It's a good thing :)

And I have been running experiments...The Model 3 gives you all kinds of information on energy usage. The multiple trip meters record milage, kw-hrs, and watts/mile. There is a graphical report of each trip showing acceleration and braking. It's pretty cool. But it's not totally accurate. It only counts battery to wheels.

I can count grid to battery...On the day I analyzed it was 18f in the morning and it didn't get above freezing all day. The car showed 83.2 miles, 28 kw-hrs, and 331 watts/mile. If I calculate the usage from preheating and charging I get 32.7 kw-hrs and 393 watts/mile. That means the return efficiency of the battery is 84% in winter. I'll do this again when it warms up.

Are legacy car makers motivated by efficiency? Not that I can tell. They don't care about energy in and energy out. They care about profit and competition. The holy grail of EVs is watts/mile. That is what they need to compete with. Our future will be energy constrained.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 09:25:00

baha wrote:....... The holy grail of EVs is watts/mile. That is what they need to compete with. Our future will be energy constrained.


That would be watt-hrs/mile (or kWh/mile). Sorry. I'm a stickler for proper units, especially in technical discussions.

Thanks for the updates from the real world (such as it is), Baha. I enjoy hearing about your experiences.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 09:46:30

baha wrote:Our future will be energy constrained.


If you're that concerned then one of Revi's quadricycles is what you're after.

The main reason to max out efficiency is the cost of batteries, not electrons.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby baha » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 17:05:19

GHung wrote:That would be watt-hrs/mile (or kWh/mile). Sorry. I'm a stickler for proper units, especially in technical discussions.


Absolutely. I guess I was caught up in the heat of the moment.

asg70 wrote:The main reason to max out efficiency is the cost of batteries, not electrons.


True, for now. But I am trying to produce my own electrons and live within my means. It's an experiment.

asg70 wrote:If you're that concerned then one of Revi's quadricycles is what you're after.


Also true but I'm not that Gung-ho. I really want an experimental electric antique VW...with mud tires :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
I will see your google and raise you an infinity!

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 24 Jan 2019, 21:00:57

The truth is, EV's are a Diesel Car in Disguise.

They loot the Power Grid until massive #'s of Diesel Stations are required to stabilize it. The EV Crook makes claim on the Diesel while taxing the shit out of Diesel Trucks that do the actual work.

So the story goes that EV growth = Diesel Fuel Growth...nothing has changed.

Where does the Diesel come from?

Ans: Bankrupting the Oil Companies.
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Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 01:37:41

baha wrote:The Porsche has a speculative starting price of $80,000. That can only compete with the Model X. Does it seat 6? I don't know. I don't pay attention to cars that don't exist yet. It clearly is not intended to be a car for the masses. Porsche has never made a car for the masses. So no threat to the Model 3 here.

ASG - By your own criteria this means Porsche can never be successful.

The Tesla Model S starts at around $84,750 per the Tesla Model S design website.

https://www.tesla.com/models/design?#battery

Porsche just announced doubling their manufacturing rate on the Taycan to 40,000 units a year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/this-is ... p-for.html

That puts it right up with the Model S in rough volume. Maybe ahead, given that Musk just laid off a bunch of Model S (and X) workers. And of course, Tesla recently discontinued the Model 75 KwH versions of the Models S and X (apparently to distinguish them from the Model 3 better).

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/tesla-l ... ction.html

Although Model 3 prices can exceed $80,000 at the top end, I don't think Porsche wants or needs to compete with the 3 -- it's the S that the Taycan will initially compete with.

I'm not buying your claims that Porsche can't compete with Tesla luxury or that it can't produce in volume needed to compete. They're just getting started in the BEV business.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 10:03:13

Porsche has a lot of experience on how to do everything other than the electric drivetrain. Tesla had the drivetrain and has struggled to learn how to do...everything else (manufacturing/qc/customer service, etc...). Which gap in knowledge is harder to bridge? Note that they're building the Taycan as a trackable car, not just good for drag racing. They know better how to build cars for handling. And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group, hence the Audi eTron GT (glorified badge engineering) and various other tech sharing down the line.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 25 Jan 2019, 14:06:39

asg70 wrote:And Porsche is only part of the larger VW group

That's a huge point. Not only can Porsche fall back on the profits from its own ongoing ICE cars, but from VW's ICE cars as a whole, while it ramps up its knowledge base re the BEV platform.

Given how great many of its cars are (if only money were no object), it's certainly easy to have confidence in their engineering team over time.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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