Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 9

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 15:40:44

KaiserJeep wrote:I sat in a Model 3 and drove it briefly when it was new. Frankly, it pinched my butt, it was too small, and the interior was stark and not that appealing. I was not willing to pay the sticker price which on the one I drove, was $68,000.

And how many practical, non preening people would be?

Even if it was $50,000, when you can get similar or more car in terms of pretty much everything but acceleration and fuel cost for roughly $30,000, with gasoline getting close to $2 a gallon on average in the US, there just isn't the value -- unless you value showing off your Tesla / being seen in your Tesla A LOT.

Now, if offerings from the likes of VW, Ford, Nissan, etc. have solid 200+ mile range BEV's with solid reputations for more like $20,000 net after the FIT credit within a few years, that might be a completely different story, re value.

I think it will be REAL interesting to see if Tesla can compete for the middle class within a few years, given its performance so far. (The middle class won't pay $30,000 to $50,000 or even more to look "cool" in meaningful numbers, IMO, especially once BEV's become relatively common.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 14 Jan 2019, 19:51:05

KaiserJeep wrote:I sat in a Model 3 and drove it


I took a test drive in a dual-motor performance and it was a good drive but it didn't change how I feel about the interior or the poor bang-for-buck quotient. Plus just buying a car can be a Kafka-like nightmare to make anyone prefer traditional dealership experience. There is so much organizational dysfunction at Tesla I'm surprised they're able to function at all.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2407
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Jan 2019, 03:30:47

asg70 wrote: Plus just buying a car can be a Kafka-like nightmare to make anyone prefer traditional dealership experience. There is so much organizational dysfunction at Tesla I'm surprised they're able to function at all.

That's interesting, and I wondered about that after hearing wildly varying accounts of the experience from several sources. Tesla fanbois act like not having dealers is the greatest thing since sliced bread. But if one is buying a car and things get more screwed up than they would at a dealer, somehow the dealers aren't looking so bad anymore.

I was HIGHLY amused at the usual fanboi BS reaction near the end of the video -- Tesla could destroy half the planet, and Tesla fanbois would say it was a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 15 Jan 2019, 21:17:59

Now asg70 wants to sacrifice VW so his EV fantasy world can continue.

VW will very quckly go broke making EV's.

They have to be $5000 Recyclable Applicances.

Baha will soon be looking for a Greater Fanboy to cut his financial losses on his absurd abomination.

The Model 3 isn't luxury, it isn't value, it isn't range, it isn't anything at all except an internet crook stuffing hundreds of billions into his own pocket. The Model 3 has a massive CO2 footprint, wwrong battery chemistry, and yet this scam stock floats. Its total fraud.
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1294
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 15 Jan 2019, 22:16:32

StarvingLion wrote:Now asg70 wants to sacrifice VW so his EV fantasy world can continue.

VW will very quckly go broke making EV's.

They have to be $5000 Recyclable Applicances.

Baha will soon be looking for a Greater Fanboy to cut his financial losses on his absurd abomination.

The Model 3 isn't luxury, it isn't value, it isn't range, it isn't anything at all except an internet crook stuffing hundreds of billions into his own pocket. The Model 3 has a massive CO2 footprint, wwrong battery chemistry, and yet this scam stock floats. Its total fraud.

You know that VW isn't Tesla, right?

Go ahead and demonstrate with facts and figures how VW will go bankrupt selling BEV's, especially "very quickly". (Hint: Unlike Tesla, VW can sell a hell of a lot of ICE's to generate lots and lots of cash and quite a bit of segment profit in the next several years. They don't need a profit in the short to intermediate term on BEV's to do just fine as a company.) I'm certain that you can't demonstrate squat, but thanks for your usual spreading of FUD, because it's SO constructive. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 16 Jan 2019, 15:37:28

Uber, trying to encourage their drivers to use EVs

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-46889176
Uber fares in London have gone up to help drivers buy electric cars, the company said.

A clean air fee of 15p per mile will be added to every trip taken in the capital from Wednesday.

The ride-hailing firm expects the scheme to raise more than £200m in the coming years, which will be used to help drivers convert to electric cars.

Uber said it was "keen to expand" the initiative to other UK cities to help curb air pollution.

The fee would add about 45p to the average London journey, it added.

A London driver using the app for an average of 40 hours per week would be given around £3,000 towards buying an electric car in two years, according to the company.

The clean air fee will not include miles travelled to a passenger's pick up location and will not be affected by dynamic pricing.


Meanwhile, major car makers need to sell large numbers of gas guzzlers to fund their EV projects.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46872928
Electric vehicles have been the number one topic of discussion at the Detroit auto show. But big fuel guzzlers are still crucial as carmakers need traditional vehicles to fund their electric dreams.

Even before the auto show opened, General Motors and Ford had announced plans to grow their electric vehicle line-ups.

Ford said it would invest $11bn (£8.5bn) by 2020 to create a line of 40 hybrid and fully electric cars.

Cadillac, a brand owned by GM, also unveiled plans for new electric vehicle architecture.

Cadillac president Steve Carlisle says the design allows battery packs to fit into the car, the way "ice cubes fit into a tray".
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3628
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 09:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 02:13:33

They're in the CAR business. They have to make CARS. If they didn't have an EV project they would sell ICE cars by default anyway, so they might as well put the money to good use.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2407
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Jan 2019, 15:20:25

asg70 wrote:They're in the CAR business. They have to make CARS. If they didn't have an EV project they would sell ICE cars by default anyway, so they might as well put the money to good use.

Right. For them (and us, IMO, given Tesla's struggles), it's GOOD that they can sell ICE cars in the mean time. We want to end up with a robust, competitve, BEV industry, with great BEV's available for all consumers. To get there is going to take a LOT of money. ICE buyers are a logical, and huge source of such money, and they're paying voluntarily.

IMO, only unrealistic purist Tesla fanboi types would hate that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 08:52:51

Ford to make all-electric version of its F-150 truck

America's most popular vehicle is going electric. Ford will make an all-electric plugin version of the F-150 pickup truck.
"We're going to be electrifying the F-series — battery electric and hybrid," Jim Farley, Ford's president of global markets, said at a Deutsche Bank conference in Detroit Wednesday.
The company isn't giving any details on the truck yet, including when it will go on sale. .....

....... Ford had previously announced it would make a hybrid version of the F-150. The all-electric truck would be in addition to that.
Ford also plans to make an all-electric version of the Transit van, Farley said. .....

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/business ... index.html
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2748
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 13:02:42

The news from nearby Fremont, CA this morning: Tesla will lay off another 3000 employees, about 7% of the current workforce. This is an attempt to make the Model 3 more price-competitive, by reducing the base model from $40K to $35K. This reduction hardly matters, since they don't actually build base models. The cheapest Model 3's have the larger battery (in theory an option) and most of the remaining features are implemented via software changes. They are suffering from reduced demand due to the expiring government price incentives.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5971
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby GHung » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 13:25:44

The future driver of EV adoption will be cost-effective short-haul fleet vehicles like the F-150; not the early adopters buying the premium status cars that have kept Tesla afloat (such as it is).
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2748
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 15:38:49

KaiserJeep wrote:This is an attempt to make the Model 3 more price-competitive, by reducing the base model from $40K to $35K.


It's encouraging that Tesla is at least acknowledging that they are failing in their mission. But I'm not sure they're really capable of making it happen.

Moral of the story: timing matters.

They weren't able to get the base model out in time to benefit from the tax credits and if they can't release the base model soon then VW and others will eat their lunch. If they don't seize the bottom end then they will be relegated forever as a boutique carmaker.

If they can't also fix their QC/reliability/customer-service problems then they may also lose the luxury market as well since competitors like Audi, Porsche, Jaguar, etc... are gunning for that first.

The fanbois who kept insisting we give Tesla time to find its footing don't realize that competition doesn't stand still. Eventually the window of opportunity closes.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2407
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:09:56

The worst case scenario is that Tesla goes under and their battery gigafactories are bought by other car manufacturers to enhance their own BEV plans.
It's often the way with new companies with innovative ideas trying to muscle in on an existing crowded market.

I don't see that happening though, the demand for EVs is too high and the supply is still lacking in the volumes needed.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Planned obsolescence, one of the largest contributors to the man made element of climate change, but the one least discussed: dolanbaker
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3628
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 09:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 16:20:20

dolanbaker wrote:The worst case scenario is that Tesla goes under and their battery gigafactories are bought by other car manufacturers to enhance their own BEV plans.
It's often the way with new companies with innovative ideas trying to muscle in on an existing crowded market.

I don't see that happening though, the demand for EVs is too high and the supply is still lacking in the volumes needed.

Right. It's not like Tesla's expertise re BEV's will disappear. It really doesn't matter, in the big scheme of things, whether Tesla makes it as a niche player (which they well might, IMO), ends up big, or goes bankrupt. In a decade, and in 3 decades, EV's will be about the same proportion of the car market overall, regardless.

Now, the impact to Tesla fanbois vs. Tesla shorts and their pocketbooks, that's a different story.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 20:57:50

EV Pseudo: "We have to buy an EV now in order to avoid the massive inflation from EV's"

Ford Motor Company: "We have to sell more ICE now as to enable the EV translation later"

Here is baha in the very near future:

[Burger Joint]: "Hi, can I take your order"

[Baha]: "Can I exchange my Model 3 for a Hamburger. I'm hungry"

[Burger Joint]: "Sorry, the resale value of the Model 3 is currently 0.38 cents. We have nothing on the menu except napkins for that price"
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1294
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Cog » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:01:57

Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12310
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:09:03

GHung wrote:
Ford to make all-electric version of its F-150 truck

America's most popular vehicle is going electric. Ford will make an all-electric plugin version of the F-150 pickup truck.
"We're going to be electrifying the F-series — battery electric and hybrid," Jim Farley, Ford's president of global markets, said at a Deutsche Bank conference in Detroit Wednesday.
The company isn't giving any details on the truck yet, including when it will go on sale. .....

....... Ford had previously announced it would make a hybrid version of the F-150. The all-electric truck would be in addition to that.
Ford also plans to make an all-electric version of the Transit van, Farley said. .....

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/17/business ... index.html


The last time I was in the local Ford Stealership, the Proprietor Dude had his head in his hands and was balling. Not advertising any more, shitcanned the sales staff. I mentioned 'EV' and it was like fingernails on a chalkboard to his ears.

The Coal plants were Fords lifeline...now they are going out of bidness within 2 years. The gas pumps in my bankrupt Coal town (now Weed Economy), will be gone in 2 years time.

MMT is sure working great. Next stop, Banana Republic.
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1294
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 18 Jan 2019, 21:18:59

Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.


Kewl. More GrowOps and BirdNest Remediators on the way. The Solution is more Automation to make EV's, of course.
Its only an Apocalypse. Whats the big fuss?
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1294
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: EVs are just better!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 19 Jan 2019, 00:19:17

Cog wrote:Tesla stock took a -13% hit today. Going to cut 7% of his workforce. Normally a workforce cut makes a stock go up. Interesting day.

This might be why:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-h ... -cash.html

Tesla has $920 million in debt that's coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company's cash

•About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share.
•Tesla's stock hasn't traded above $359 for weeks, which could leave the automaker on the hook for an all-cash payout.
•The company continues to reveal pressure to maintain profitability, and announced Friday it would cut 7 percent of its full-time workforce.

Cog, that $920 Billion convertible debt due is old news. The main thing that today did re that event was, with a 13% drop in the price and bad news on earnings projections, makes it look a LOT more likely they're on the hook for the full amount in cash -- which would consume about a third of their available cash, per the pundits. Bulls had been much more sanguine about the $360ish price earlier.

What looks different is the earnings outlook, due to Musk's letter to employees today, re the layoffs, etc.

First, much lower 4Q profit likely than earlier expected. Much smaller than 3Q profit, where the bulls had been projecting a higher profit.

Second, and a much bigger deal, IMO, is that Musk stated that profits in '19 were going to be tough to attain, and take things going right (I am paraphrasing). This is in sharp contrast to his earlier confident claims that it was pure profits as far as the eye can see from now on (again, I'm paraphrasing).

Small profits or even losses is a VERY big hit to the expansion plans Musk had been projecting re the supercharger network, more factories, more parts inventory, more service centers, and for producing the Model Y, Roadster V2, Semi Truck, etc. by the planned dates.

...

So now it looks like Tesla either has to raise a lot of cash at junk bond interest rates in a rising rate environment (despite claims it wouldn't), or it has to cut back a lot on plans, which will hurt service, revenues, growth, etc.

I don't blame shareholders for viewing that unexpected news quite negatively.

And you're right, in isolation, just the 7% workforce cut to save on costs would have likely been seen as a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6636
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests