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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 27 Mar 2021, 12:50:11

vtsnowedin wrote: Say the goal is 100,000,000 EVs to totally replace the current US personal vehicle fleet driven the current average 13,600 miles a year. Also assume no improvement over current battery size and range of a Tesla (75kwhs and 300 mile range per charge) so 46 charges per year or 3450 KWH/year per car. Now take your average current tech commercial wind mill producing six million KWHs per year you get that each mill can support 1740 cars so with a bit of rounding a full EV fleet would require 58,000 average commercial wind mills to fuel the fleet. That would total some 350 billion KWHs of electric production but considering the current number of wind mills 67,000 with an annual production of 300 billion KWHs (not all existing are the size of what is being installed today) it would not take much of a building program to have the entire US vehicle fleet powered by wind power alone as fast as the cars are built and put into service.


I like your positive atttitude on this.

But what about the money needed? 100,000 EVs at, say, $50,000 each comes to $5,000,000,000 dollars----thats 5 trillion dollars---a not inconsiderable sum even for the Ds.

And then there's the 58,000 commercial windmills you say are needed. Modern 2-4 Mw commercial windmills cost about 2 million dollars each, so the windmill cost would be about 100,000,000,000. Thats 100 TRILLION dollars. Even Joe biden would have a hard time printing up that much money.

And you've still got to buy or least the land for the windmills, and build the power lines and other infrastructure to distribute the power across the country (because good wind power sites don't occur everywhere). Lets roughly estimate that at about 50 trillion dollars.

So we're up over 150 trillion dollars......and thats before the massive inflation that Biden is already going to kick off with his huge deficit spending, and this would be a government project....so double that price.

Now we're up to 300 trillion dollars for the Biden green EV plan.

And it will only make things worse anyway, because manufacturing an EV produces much more CO2 footprint than manufacturing an ICE car.

So we're going to spend 300 TRILLION to make greenhouse warming worse?

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DANGER! DANGER! DO THE MATH FIRST! DO THE MATH FIRST BEFORE SPENDING 300 TRILLION TO MAKE THINGS WORSE! DANGER!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 27 Mar 2021, 14:35:03

Well for starters the fleet is worn out and replaced about every fifteen years anyway so as long as unit cost is close to comparable which it is there is no new costs there.
And then there's the 58,000 commercial windmills you say are needed. Modern 2-4 Mw commercial windmills cost about 2 million dollars each, so the windmill cost would be about 100,000,000,000. Thats 100 TRILLION dollars. Even Joe biden would have a hard time printing up that much money.

You are off by a factor of ten there. 9 zeros is billion not trillion. And 67,000 wind mills already exist producing 300 billion KWHs per year so you only need 8400 additional ones at 3 million each which would include the land leases which amounts to 25 billion.
That would be a good investment unlike much of the other wish list items the bill is being loaded with.
I have long ago concluded that the level of spending matters much less then what they actually buy with our money.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 27 Mar 2021, 21:31:41

"Hydrogen fuels a revolution in Chinese trucking"
https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/hydrogen- ... -trucking/

"But while hydrogen fuel cells are just beginning to provide serious competition to battery powered vehicles in personal transportation, they are making a large impact in the heavier vehicle commercial transportation space where large loads have to be carried over long distances. That’s where hydrogen has the advantage.

And that’s where China, just getting to be competitive with the likes of Tesla in snazzy passenger cars, is poised to seize the lead with hydrogen-powered trucks.

The hydrogen fuel cell is a rare example of a long-established technology turning into a game-changing disrupter. It has powered spacecraft and submarines for decades but made little headway in ground transportation because governments balked at the cost of building fueling infrastructure, and because the cost of producing the raw materials was prohibitive.

That’s changing in a big way, mainly because China has made hydrogen-powered ground transport one of the top priorities of its $560 billion a year technology investment budget.

Europe and Japan – Germany has declared 2021 the year of hydrogen technology – are running only slightly behind China. For the next decade or so, battery-powered passenger vehicles will dominate the market for low-carbon substitutes for the internal combustion engine. But batteries can’t power long-range freight transportation by truck and rail, and China is making a decisive commitment to hydrogen."

The Chinese have built the world's largest highway network, high speed rail network, HV electrical transmission network, and 4G and 5G communications networks in the last decade, so when they say they will build a fuel cell network in the next one, I take them at their word. I expect China to have the world's largest fuel cell network in the world before this decade is over. They are already in the lead, apparently, ahead of the EU and Japan.
Last edited by JuanP on Sat 27 Mar 2021, 21:41:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 27 Mar 2021, 21:41:16

vtsnowedin wrote: You are off by a factor of ten there. 9 zeros is billion not trillion.


Not if you do the math correctly.

Think about zeroes again. We are calculating 58,000 times 2,000,000. Yes, if you multiply those two numbers you can start by "counting the zeroes" and see 9 zeroes....but you also have to multiply 58 x 2.....that is equal to 116 which, if you are thinking in terms of powers of ten (or "zeroes" as you put it) adds two more zeroes for a grant total of 11 zeroes, i.e. roughly a bit more then 100,000,000,000 dollars, i.e. 100 TRILLION dollars just as I said.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 08:23:50

Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: You are off by a factor of ten there. 9 zeros is billion not trillion.


Not if you do the math correctly.

Think about zeroes again. We are calculating 58,000 times 2,000,000. Yes, if you multiply those two numbers you can start by "counting the zeroes" and see 9 zeroes....but you also have to multiply 58 x 2.....that is equal to 116 which, if you are thinking in terms of powers of ten (or "zeroes" as you put it) adds two more zeroes for a grant total of 11 zeroes, i.e. roughly a bit more then 100,000,000,000 dollars, i.e. 100 TRILLION dollars just as I said.

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Cheers!

(58*10^3) * (2*10^6) = 1.16*10^11 = 116*10^9 = 116 Billion.
It ain't that hard.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 12:15:11

mousepad wrote:(58*10^3) * (2*10^6) = 1.16*10^11 = 116*10^9 = 116 Billion.
It ain't that hard.


As usual, mousepad is 100% right.

Or is that 1000% right, as the Ds like to say.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 12:40:51

"Chinese smart EV maker Nio shuts factory temporarily amid chip shortage"
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202103/1219666.shtml

Well, the Chinese don't waste any time dealing with this kind of problems. After the USA blocked the sale of 7nm chips to Huawei, they realized they could experience the same problem with vehicle semiconductors, which are mostly 28nm. So, even before this global vehicle chip shortage started the Chinese had already started purchasing all the equipment needed to make their own, and expanding and building vehicle semiconductor factories. China, only manufactured 2.5% of global vehicle semiconductors in 2020, and imported most of the ones they needed from the EU, Japan, and the USA.

Now, they will have the capacity to supply their whole domestic vehicle manufacturing industry with domestically manufactured chips as of the next trimester, and will begin exporting them next year, too. They intend to become the global industry leaders in this area before 2025. They achieved this by integrating both upstream and downstream their vehicle manufacturing and semiconductor manufacturing industries. They also did the same with all vehicle parts supply chains. The global vehicle chip manufacturing industry was worth around $50 billion in 2020. I never cease to be amazed by how smart those f***ing Chinese are!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 13:28:21

You might find this interesting.
China would dearly love to up its game. TSMC is China’s biggest contract supplier, making chips for the likes of smartphone giant Xiaomi, computer manufacturer Lenovo, and electric-vehicle makers. Recently Beijing has accelerated its push for silicon independence. China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC), a company founded in 2000 with government support, secured $2.5 billion in state funding this May and raised another $6.6 billion in July through a share offering in Shanghai. But SMIC’s technological capabilities remain generations behind TSMC’s. So do its sales: In 2019, SMIC had revenue of roughly $3 billion, while TSMC sold $7 billion worth of chips in mainland China alone.

https://fortune.com/2020/08/10/us-china ... hipmakers/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 14:45:06

JuanP wrote: I never cease to be amazed by how smart those f***ing Chinese are!


ChiComs sure are smart!! Ever since Nixon turned them on to how cool it was to be modern, they have been just zipping right along! :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 14:56:23

mousepad wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: You are off by a factor of ten there. 9 zeros is billion not trillion.


Not if you do the math correctly.

Think about zeroes again. We are calculating 58,000 times 2,000,000. Yes, if you multiply those two numbers you can start by "counting the zeroes" and see 9 zeroes....but you also have to multiply 58 x 2.....that is equal to 116 which, if you are thinking in terms of powers of ten (or "zeroes" as you put it) adds two more zeroes for a grant total of 11 zeroes, i.e. roughly a bit more then 100,000,000,000 dollars, i.e. 100 TRILLION dollars just as I said.

Image

Cheers!

(58*10^3) * (2*10^6) = 1.16*10^11 = 116*10^9 = 116 Billion.
It ain't that hard.

Wrong.

Or just back of the envelope common sense checking, a trillion is a million (1*10**6) squared. Or 1 * 10**12 (12 zeros). So planty is off by a factor of a thousand, doesn't even bother to check himself, etc.

It's such a familiar approach from him, who will almost NEVER admit it when he's wrong, even blatantly wrong, and instead try some nonsensical convoluted argument as though if he spins fast enough that will make educated people assume he must be right. :roll:

Oh, and I did check myself, just to be sure, since I'm claiming I'm right. Unless it's a conspiracy and the internet is wrong on this, of course.

He did get one thing right. Math rocks. But math has objective rules and requires correct computation and understanding of the rules. For example, re numbers with lots of zeros:

http://www.math.com/tables/general/numnotation.htm
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 17:48:38

TSLA is going to 0. F is going to 0. GM is going to 0. Fiat Chrysler is going to 0.

Already my local Ford dealership is a shell. No inventory. No mechanics. No salespeople. No lot attendants. Zip. They pumped their stock from $2 to $12 via deindustrialisation (plants to mexico, hollowing out dealerships, etc).

When are you morons going to deal with this simple fact?

Your love for electricity isn't worth a dime literally.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 19:01:32

OK for those that flunked fourth grade. This( 1,000) is one thousand, this (999,000) is nine hundred and ninety nine thousand. This (1,000,000) is one million. This (1,000,000,000) is one billion. This(100,000,000,000,000) is one hundred billion. And this (1,000,000,000,000) is a trillion. You count the digits to the right of the first comma. 3 for a thousand 6 for a million, 9 for a billion and 12 for a trillion.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby JuanP » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 19:42:50

vtsnowedin wrote:OK for those that flunked fourth grade. This( 1,000) is one thousand, this (999,000) is nine hundred and ninety nine thousand. This (1,000,000) is one million. This (1,000,000,000) is one billion. This(100,000,000,000,000) is one hundred billion. And this (1,000,000,000,000) is a trillion. You count the digits to the right of the first comma. 3 for a thousand 6 for a million, 9 for a billion and 12 for a trillion.


You actually got it wrong! But I know it was just a typo, and not lack of understanding. :-D

You said "This(100,000,000,000,000) is one hundred billion.", when that is actually 100 trillion. But you got it right when you more or less explained that a 1 followed by 12 zeros was a trillion; at least the intention behind your explanation was clear, even if the explanation was not.

I will also add, just to confuse things even more, that in some other languages the definitions of billions and trillions are actually different, which makes this even harder for multilingual people. Un billón (which means one billion in Spanish) is 1.000.000.000.000. What English speaking people call a billion is called a thousand millions by most non English speakers of the world. And what English speakers call a trillion is called a billion by most non English speakers. We live in a truly f***ed up world!

The original definition of the word billion was one million squared or 1,000,000 * 1,000,000. The "bi" in billion stands for "to the second power" or "squared" in Latin. That is the same root word as the one used for binomial or binary, for example, in both cases the "bi" meaning 2, as in two terms and two numbers.
Last edited by JuanP on Sun 28 Mar 2021, 20:02:07, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby mousepad » Sun 28 Mar 2021, 19:50:30

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mousepad wrote:(58*10^3) * (2*10^6) = 1.16*10^11 = 116*10^9 = 116 Billion.
It ain't that hard.

Wrong.


what you mean wrong? are you crazy?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 29 Mar 2021, 04:33:48

Mousepad
You actually got it wrong! But I know it was just a typo, and not lack of understanding.
You are correct. A typo. :oops:
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 02 Apr 2021, 16:04:31

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mousepad wrote:(58*10^3) * (2*10^6) = 1.16*10^11 = 116*10^9 = 116 Billion.
It ain't that hard.

Wrong.


what you mean wrong? are you crazy?

You're right. I made a mistake in the midst of the planty madness, thinking you were backing planty.

MY BAD.

116*10**9 is 116 billion. Clearly in the context of what I was trying to point out to the planty reality evasion scenario around that time, when he was trying to claim 1*10**9 is a trillion, re other posts.

Unlike many on this site, when I screw up and that is pointed out with DATA instead of empty insults, I tend to acknowledge when I screw up (generally by a contextual mistake in the middle of an argument with a fact free poster like planty).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 02 Apr 2021, 17:34:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:You're right. I made a mistake


Thank you for admitting that you made a mistake.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:MY BAD.


Its OK. Don't worry about it. Everyone makes a mistake now and then.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Unlike many on this site, when I screw up and that is pointed out with DATA instead of empty insults, I tend to acknowledge when I screw up


Thats true. On the other hand you have much more experience in screwing up than most other posters, so you have a certain advantage over the rest of us in needing to apologize for screwing up.

But the bottom line here is you've stepped up and you've made an apology for your errant ways and that settles the matter as far as I'm concerned.

Cheers!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 02 Apr 2021, 17:42:21

Solid state EV batteries promise to be the next big thing in EVs

how-solid-state-batteries-can-transform-electric-cars

I bought some Quantumscape stock a while back on their promise to manufacture a solid-state EV battery. Quantumscape is tied with Volkswagen's EV program.

Foxconn is also talking about building a solid-state EV battery, possibly for an APPLE I-Car.

And Toyota just put out a press release on their solid state EV program.

If any of these companies gets it going, this could be a real problem for Tesla, because solid state batteries will greatly outperform the Li-battery technology being used by Tesla. Its just better technology.

Image
Solid state EV batteries promised MUCH BETTER performance then existing EV battery technology

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 03 Apr 2021, 12:40:41

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You're right. I made a mistake


Thank you for admitting that you made a mistake.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:MY BAD.


Its OK. Don't worry about it. Everyone makes a mistake now and then.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Unlike many on this site, when I screw up and that is pointed out with DATA instead of empty insults, I tend to acknowledge when I screw up


Thats true. On the other hand you have much more experience in screwing up than most other posters, so you have a certain advantage over the rest of us in needing to apologize for screwing up.

But the bottom line here is you've stepped up and you've made an apology for your errant ways and that settles the matter as far as I'm concerned.

Cheers!

Do YOU ever apologize for such mistakes you make, or have I just missed it? Do you have the right to issue judgements if you don't admit such errors when you make them?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 11

Unread postby aadbrd » Sat 03 Apr 2021, 16:11:08

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Do YOU ever apologize for such mistakes you make...


Save yourself the stress and just use the ignore filter. He feeds on drama.
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