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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 04:07:09

asg70 wrote:This thread is devolving rapidly into pointless chest-beating and d*ck-wagging.

Don't they all?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 23 Jan 2020, 06:29:54

To get back on topic. New rebate program adopted by of all places New Jersey.
New Jersey made a big move last week to back up its Garden State motto, with one of the greenest state plans for encouraging electric vehicles in the nation.

The legislation, passed last Monday and then signed by New Jersey governor Phil Murphy on Friday,

Under it, a state program, which takes effect immediately, allocates $300 million over 10 years and will start offering those who buy electric vehicles up to a $5,000 cash-on-the-hood rebate.

The most controversial move within the law may well be how it allocates that rebate. For the first year it’s offered, the amount of the incentive “shall be equal to $25 per mile of EPA-rated electric-only range up to a maximum of $5,000 per eligible vehicle,” according to the legislation.

.......
With the legislation, New Jersey aims to make at least 330,000 of its light-duty vehicles electric by the end of 2025 and at least 2 million of them electric by the end of 2035—and 85% of leased vehicles all-electric by 2040.

The state has an uphill climb to get to those numbers. According to the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, fully electric vehicles made up just 12,106 total registrations in the state, as of the end of 2018, with EVs making up less than 1% of sales in 2018 versus nearly 5% then in California—and well over 5% in 2019.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/11 ... TUGjKZq3og
I wonder where the money is coming from to pay for the program but I like how they structured the rebate on a miles of electric range basis.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 19:54:40

vtsnowedin wrote: I wonder where the money is coming from to pay for the program but I like how they structured the rebate on a miles of electric range basis.

I agree with that. But back of the envelope, $5000 per car (assuming the vast majority of people want 200 miles or more of range), that's 200 cars per $million allocated. With a decade long program funded at $300, million, that's only 300 * 200 or 60,000 cars.

To me, 60,000 cars over a decade won't BEGIN to meet the lofty stated goals of the program, but maybe I'm too pessimistic, and enough to kick-start more BEV buyers will help the goals once the money runs out and people are thinking BEV.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 20:39:57

You never heard of a government program running over budget? :o
You are correct though. 60,000 would be just two percent of the 2.8 million vehicles registered and on the roads of New Jersey.
But consider that all they have to do is wack the other 2.7 million cars $110 each over the life of the program to raise the cash. Will the taxpayers notice $12.00 a year increase on their registrations?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 27 Jan 2020, 18:17:09

Things are moving ahead for GM. Putting a BEV promotion on the Superbowl is exactly what is necessary to soften the stubborn truck-nutz demographic up to the inevitable transition. We'll see what's actually in that spot.

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/ ... e-n1124086

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 07:52:09

asg70 wrote: the inevitable transition.


the inevitable transition will be a transition to motorcycles and very light cars. Think 3rd world.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 07:58:46

mousepad wrote:
asg70 wrote: the inevitable transition.


the inevitable transition will be a transition to motorcycles and very light cars. Think 3rd world.

The bigger transition will be to reconfigure communities so that home, work, school and stores are all within walking distance of each other making the transportation vehicle much less important. Think 1890 America.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 08:37:37

vtsnowedin wrote:
mousepad wrote:
asg70 wrote: the inevitable transition.


the inevitable transition will be a transition to motorcycles and very light cars. Think 3rd world.

The bigger transition will be to reconfigure communities so that home, work, school and stores are all within walking distance of each other making the transportation vehicle much less important. Think 1890 America.

Agree.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 11:42:54

vtsnowedin wrote:
mousepad wrote:
asg70 wrote: the inevitable transition.

the inevitable transition will be a transition to motorcycles and very light cars. Think 3rd world.

The bigger transition will be to reconfigure communities so that home, work, school and stores are all within walking distance of each other making the transportation vehicle much less important. Think 1890 America.


1890s america had a fraction of today's population (63 million vs. 331). It was also a time when jobs were the local baker, cobbler, and the candlestickmaker, not today where almost every job involves little more than banging away at a keyboard and staring at a screen. The clustering going on near metro areas (whether it's inner-rung suburb or not) is what's unsustainable. Kunstler-style new urbanism is simply cost prohibitive for anyone other than 1%ers. Look at places like San Francisco with the crushing cost of living and the homeless pooping in the streets. The future needs to involve breaking the relationship between jobs and geography through telecommuting. If you can outsource work to a call-center in India then your domestic workforce should be able to work where housing is cheap. Products can always be delivered to the hinterlands via electric trucks like what Amazon is doing with Rivian.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 12:12:05

Funny you mention Amazon. How many of their warehouse employees spend their day pounding on a keyboard? How about the drivers that actually deliver the boxes to your door? The idea that the majority of jobs today are keyboard related is just silly. many people never touch a keyboard at work and quite a few more only touch one to make out their time sheet.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 13:37:23

vtsnowedin wrote:You never heard of a government program running over budget? :o
You are correct though. 60,000 would be just two percent of the 2.8 million vehicles registered and on the roads of New Jersey.
But consider that all they have to do is wack the other 2.7 million cars $110 each over the life of the program to raise the cash. Will the taxpayers notice $12.00 a year increase on their registrations?

Good point re it not being difficult to raise more money IF they have the political will to DO it. My concern over so many well-intentioned govt. programs is that it's far easier to spend money and brag about it, than PAY for it with taxes, and risk pissing off voters. With the obvious trend re debt over time.

If TPTB were serious about combating climate change, they could even make the registration cost vary by vehicle type, inversely proportional to their fuel efficiency or something, and use the extra revenue to provide more incentive to EV's.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 18:09:46

vtsnowedin wrote:How many of their warehouse employees spend their day pounding on a keyboard?


How many warehouse employees are actually even flesh and blood anymore?

vtsnowedin wrote:How about the drivers that actually deliver the boxes to your door?


You mean like the drones Amazon wants to use for last-mile? How about the self-driving features being pushed for trucks like the Semi?

vtsnowedin wrote:The idea that the majority of jobs today are keyboard related is just silly


Predicting some return to 19th century way of life is what's silly. The whole "the future will resemble the past" narrative ignores all the changes that have occurred in the world. It won't happen outside of a Mad Max style crash. But hey, I know that vision of the future is a tough one to shake.

In the old days the image of the white collar worker was you commuted to work, sat in your cubicle next to your phone and pushed paper around. Today none of that kind of work can't be done as well or better remotely. And these white-collar workers are just the type who populate the dreaded suburbs. They could live anywhere they wanted if not for corporate tradition.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 19:54:02

asg70 wrote:Predicting some return to 19th century way of life is what's silly.
I am not predicting that. Rearranging housing , workplaces,schools etc. to make them none auto dependent would not return you to the 19th century. You would still have the electric grid and cable TV plus Wifi and all the other innovations we have invented and adopted. All we would give up is the long daily commutes and the energy that requires.
You seem to think that white collar workers pushing paper around at the office or at their home computer get things done. Without real hands on workers on the factory floor or on the job site their paper shuffling amounts to nothing.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 28 Jan 2020, 23:30:35

vtsnowedin wrote: You seem to think that white collar workers pushing paper around at the office or at their home computer get things done. Without real hands on workers on the factory floor or on the job site their paper shuffling amounts to nothing.


Last time I checked, at least in the US, factory work is a pretty small part of the total workplace. So why are you fixating on it?

I stand by what I said. Population size being what it is, new urbanism ain't gonna happen. Too many people to pack in too few spaces and real estate values too high.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 10:40:49

asg70 wrote:Last time I checked, at least in the US, factory work is a pretty small part of the total workplace. So why are you fixating on it?

Hard to say. The only statistic I found is from 2003 showing roughly 50% use a computer at work.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ciuaw.nr0.htm
And if we assume that "use a computer" also means trivial tasks like filling out time sheets and reports, then the actual number of workers using computers qualifying for telecommute is small.

I stand by what I said. Population size being what it is, new urbanism ain't gonna happen. Too many people to pack in too few spaces and real estate values too high.


I thought we have an energy problem on the horizon? Don't we?
Lack of energy, expensive energy, urbanism will come back naturally, we don't even have to do anything about it. Think slums around major cities. Ain't it already happening ?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 11:04:17

mousepad wrote:I thought we have an energy problem on the horizon?


No. We have a fossil fuel energy problem on the horizon (hence the EV thread).

Actually, I think the risks of an oil shortage at this point are rather low. It would require a cliff-like drop off the plateau. Trying to conserve travel is a nice to have, especially in terms of emissions, but not a must have.

I agree that I haven't done a ton of research on the subject, but here's something that popped up in google news:

https://www.bizjournals.com/kansascity/ ... tible.html

The Census Bureau survey also found that half of American jobs are compatible with telecommuting at least part of the time.


That's a significant percentage. Imagine how that could change the energy and housing landscape.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 11:14:55

If you care to see how many are in each job type look here.
https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employme ... sector.htm
Manufacturing ,construction and mining are 20.6 million. out of a total of 161 million.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby mousepad » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 11:33:45

asg70 wrote:No. We have a fossil fuel energy problem on the horizon (hence the EV thread).

I'm not so sure about that.
Especially since coal/gas/oil make approx 90% of total worldwide energy use.
It seems a fossil fuel problem is an electricity problem, too.

asg70 wrote:The Census Bureau survey also found that half of American jobs are compatible with telecommuting at least part of the time.

That's a significant percentage. Imagine how that could change the energy and housing landscape.


I don't think it's that simple. Many people don't work well from home. Also many don't want to work from home. A reasonable model seems to be a few days at home, a few days in the office. In that case the saving is not that great. And if you have to heat/AC your home because you're at home now, and the business also heats/ac your office, then there's no saving at all, might even be a net energy increase.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 15:07:52

mousepad wrote:
asg70 wrote:No. We have a fossil fuel energy problem on the horizon (hence the EV thread).

I'm not so sure about that.
Especially since coal/gas/oil make approx 90% of total worldwide energy use.
It seems a fossil fuel problem is an electricity problem, too.

asg70 wrote:The Census Bureau survey also found that half of American jobs are compatible with telecommuting at least part of the time.

That's a significant percentage. Imagine how that could change the energy and housing landscape.


I don't think it's that simple. Many people don't work well from home. Also many don't want to work from home. A reasonable model seems to be a few days at home, a few days in the office. In that case the saving is not that great. And if you have to heat/AC your home because you're at home now, and the business also heats/ac your office, then there's no saving at all, might even be a net energy increase.

Most homes and offices are kept at comfortable temperatures all the time occupied or not so I would not expect an change there. The savings will come entirely from the commuter miles not traveled both in fuel and and wear and tear on the vehicles. Two of my three daughters telecommute a few days each week but the third is a teacher and has to be in the class every work day. The telecommute days are used to write up reports generated by work done on the other days so that work runs out if there are no office days in between.
My wife's job and mine (when I work it) are both got to be there every hour to do the job. We both use computers for record keeping but can't bring the job home with us.
I think telecommuting is probably only practical for one out of five jobs and then only two days out of five on average. But that said if done to practical limits would save millions of barrels of fuel.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 29 Jan 2020, 15:25:24

vtsnowedin wrote:Most homes and offices are kept at comfortable temperatures all the time occupied or not so I would not expect an change there.

But most isn't all. (My place is certainly an exception). And over time, I suspect "most" may no longer be the case.

With automation (including programmable thermostats) very much "a thing" now, especially with the rise of the tech. savvy generations coming to the fore, unless energy gets to be too cheap to meter (not to mention wear/tear on the heating/cooling systems), I'd expect more and more adjustment to be made, re comfort vs. savings, largely with automation / rules making doing that quite simple for the majority of the cases.

Heck, soon systems ought to be smart enough to generally deduce whether anyone is home and make such adjustments automatically (according to default, or owner-modified rules).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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