Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Eagle Ford Shale

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 13:59:34

ROCKMAN wrote:ennui - True but the rage can be very entertaining. The angry kitty is one of my favorites and I always look forward to his next post.

Ireland had the Celtic Tiger, peak oil has a hungry pussy! :lol:
The Celtic Tiger is now extinct, I wonder how long the hungry pussy will last??
Image
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3854
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 14:06:44

The Energiewende SCAM is dead. Batteries are dead. Solar SCAM is dead.

Electricity is NOT money. Neither are deadbeats with their auto pilot ev's.

Shipping boatloads of batteries to Mexico isn't going to save Mexico.

All this lab-scale "innovation" in the commie joints is a complete waste of time.

Semiconductor derived crap is worse than useless. The biggest xxxing waste of resources in the history of the world.

Are you people actually adults or not?
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
permanently banned
 
Posts: 2698
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 16:00:26

StarvingLion wrote:The oil idiots don't know what they are doing. They are totally reliant on that seismic software crap. There is tons of oil in the arctic and Shell is simply too stupid to find it.

This problem of stupidity is compounded with shale. They drill in the shales with no intelligence whatsoever. Costs are 10x what they need to be.

These oil idiots make me laugh with their "look at the price of oil" bullshit. It means absolutely nothing. The prices are completely fabricated on demand.


Ranting might be entertaining and all but do you have any data to back up your claims or is it all just a bunch of hot air?
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16248
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 16:47:02

The pace and near rhythm of SL's comments make me think he is only doing the rant dance to watch the responses to it. Very entertaining.
But I don't believe, he believes, even 10 percent of his statements in his rants.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1468
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby h2 » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 19:43:21

Interesting stuff rockman, thanks.

StarvingLion sounds like he's just whiny because ron banned him, otherwise why keep referring to someone else's blog here?

However, after rereading him, I came to suspect you are all being too hard on him, he's clearly got his finger on the future here, I mean, industrialization, why didn't we think of that? And all those incompetents in the oil business unable to find the oil that SL can point us to with little or no difficulty, we've been fools to see any problems when the solution is so simple, and clear, if only narrow minded people would open their eyes.

Now of course, the real mystery is why SL isn't taking advantage of his information to exploit these oil pools himself. Maybe a funding issue? He's probably having to face skepticism from VC types, and banks, but if only people would listen, our energy and other issues would be over.

I had always suspected there was something suspect in the story we are telling ourselves, and SL points out what those wrongs are. We should be grateful, I mean, I was actually starting to get worried.

So all we have to do is industrialize further, I mean, that should work well, so yes, why not? And drill all that oil that is all over the place to fuel it. Clearly the world needs more visionaries like SL and fewer stick in the mud neo-realists like the rockman, now it's clear to me. I feel foolish for having thought that a guy like rockman -- who has worked, obviously foolishly, and cluelessly, looking for little pools of leftover oil most of his life, when there are these huge pools just waiting to be exploited if battery loving 'EV proponents would just let us access them -- was worth reading, when he's clearly part of the problem.

I think I've got it more or less. Oh and fusion power? Or high temp nukes? Are those different from the low temp stuff we must be running? Silly me for having thought nukes were high temp to begin with. Maybe thorium is the key though, or fusion fueled thorium? H20 provides both hydrogen and oxygen, and oxygen catalyzes combustion, as we all know, so clearly what we should be doing is splitting h2o into its component parts, using high temp fission, or low temp fusion? I get confused, but SL will point us towards the new true path forwards I feel confident, at least if skeptics stop their negative attitudes and let him explain further how the entire world has been confused and how the solutions are really that easy.

So there's no problems, water is in plentiful supply, california forests are not burning, etc. I knew those darned liberals had their tentacles in the causes of our current issues, now I"m clear on just what those tentacles are doing.

And all that silicon, now I see it more clearly, we've been fooled, all those deep seismic things we see pictures of, and those drilling logging programs, all part of the problem, now I see it clearly, that tech actually held back development of the real oil finds, it didn't enable it. And who can argue that a chip filled car sucks? I mean, has anyone ever tried to fix one? And computers, give me a break, it's time to go back to the 1890's, when men were men and factories factories and coal coal, and we made things, things that worked. I'm liking SL more and more, it all makes sense, you see, the high tech stuff, just hiding the true path from us, forcing us into weird unnatural ways of being, and who can truly argue that point? Last guy I heard put some of these points like this was the unibomber, except for the high temp fission parts, and increased industrialization, but that's what cutting edge thinking looks like, we're lucky to have it here, that's for sure.

Thank heavens there's at least one voice of reason here...

On the other bright side, do I see that your resident troll desumaiden is gone? the damage he did is pretty obvious looking at the forums today vs a year ago.
h2
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 111
Joined: Fri 31 May 2013, 16:15:15

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 23:19:14

Oil Idiots: "Supply and demand, blah, prices, blah...."...all a bunch of worthless crap.

Unfortunately, it is a fact of American business today that policy is often dictated to corporate boards by hedge-fund managers & other “activist investors” who do not have the good of the company or the public at heart, nor any long-term stake, but simply wish to make a quick buck — off the collapse of the company, if that’s the easiest thing to engineer.

Consider the case of “California Resources Corporation”. Under heavy pressure, the management of Occidental Petroleum spun off their underperforming California operations. The new company was required to borrow several billion dollars to pay a “Special Dividend” to OXY shareholders, & the bonds were cleverly packaged for sale as apparently good-quality securities. As you might guess, CRC has been repeatedly downgraded by the credit agencies, & there’s little question that everyone who bought their debt is going to take a bath, while the middlemen who handled the transaction make out very nicely.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
permanently banned
 
Posts: 2698
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Oct 2015, 23:31:45

All this climate change and oil scarcity bullshit is just to con you halfwits which is so easy to do.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat ... 5/844.aspx

Carney the Clown has you suckers bent over and is robbing you blind.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat ... 5/844.aspx

"Our societies face a series of profound environmental and social challenges.

The combination of the weight of scientific evidence and the dynamics of the financial system suggest that, in the fullness of time, climate change will threaten financial resilience and longer-term prosperity.

While there is still time to act, the window of opportunity is finite and shrinking. "

Hahahahaha...what a bleeping two bit con artist, that low life degenerate is.

While you dopes head for third world status, Carney the Clown and his ilk will take in a big piece of a global carbon credits trading system SCAM.

You sun worshipping idiots will be digging holes on "your" collective farms while Pol Pot Obama reads the Carbon Emission Bible to you. Limiting carbon emissions through a progressive tax is intended to be a win-win for both alternative energy special interests and the peddlers of this economic and prosperity destroying ideology.

Have fun with your Peak Oil Bullshit scare.
Outcast_Searcher is a fraud.
StarvingLion
permanently banned
 
Posts: 2698
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 18:59:17

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 00:04:42

Who you pushing the barrow for then? Getting upset isn't helping your point.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9280
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 04:00:00

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 06:52:55

StarvingLion wrote:Rockman is out of his mind. Reminds me of that idiot Ron "I killed the planet, I killed the planet" Patterson...lol.

Shale and tar sands are everywhere.

Synthetic fuels and chemicals from cheap electricity will soon be everywhere.

The world has a lack of space problem, a suicidal anti-industrialist attitude brought on by computers and the space problem, a corruption problem due to fake money, and hordes and hordes of stupid people.

Nobody with a brain believes batteries are the solution.

The climate change crooks are a bunch of deadbeat rentiers.

Peak Oil is a FRAUD.


Peak oil isn't about shale, etc., being everywhere. And the fact that we are now referring to shale makes the claim that peak oil is not true ironic.

And given your posts, now adding you to my ignore list.
User avatar
ralfy
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5210
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 11:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 07:24:12

ralfy wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:.....


Peak oil isn't about shale, etc., being everywhere. And the fact that we are now referring to shale makes the claim that peak oil is not true ironic.

And given your posts, now adding you to my ignore list.

Shale oil is just a pimple on the top of peak oil production, without it the plateau would have been flatter and by now it would have most probably started a downwards trend while the price remained high due to the lack of new supply.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
Hungrymoggy "I am now predicting that Europe will NUKE ITSELF sometime in the first week of January"
User avatar
dolanbaker
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3854
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 10:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 08:00:14

dolanbaker wrote:
ralfy wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:.....


Peak oil isn't about shale, etc., being everywhere. And the fact that we are now referring to shale makes the claim that peak oil is not true ironic.

And given your posts, now adding you to my ignore list.

Shale oil is just a pimple on the top of peak oil production, without it the plateau would have been flatter and by now it would have most probably started a downwards trend while the price remained high due to the lack of new supply.


A statistical look at the data certainly supports your point Dolan. Pops kept pointing out to all of us that the LTO from North America was essentially all of the oil production growth over the last five years. Even though the oil production from Libya and Iraq and Iran has been somewhat unpredictable because of the chaos in those locations it has not been zero and at times fairly high, but not enough to grow world production levels. Even if all three had been producing full out for the last five years they would not have supplied as much as the LTO boom in North America supplied.

Given that simple fact of supply and demand and the fact that world growth outside of North America and the EU continued even at the high prices of the last five years, and add in the fact that even at these high prices the major oil corporations and national oil companies were reducing their exploration and development budgets? It sure looks like the $90-110/bbl range was economically sustainable but not enough to develop additional oil other than the LTO boom driven by extremely easy financing.

Now for my opinion, if financing had been less aggressive in North America and the LTO boom had been a sustained development pattern instead of a bubble a lot of exploration would have still been done, but only the oil that was economically viable would have been put into the market. Judging by drilling activity over the last six months somewhere around half of the drilling that took place in 2013-2014 would not have taken place without risky high interest loans to the fracking industry. The USA tertiary peak caused by LTO would still exist because high prices and deployment of technology into the known sweet spots would have taken place in the same fashion as it did. Some new sweet spots would have been discovered by the exploration teams combing through the shale plays looking for them, but thousands of price marginal wells would not have been drilled yet because prices have not been high enough to sustain those wells. Take away the easy money and the sweet spot vs average spot drilling ratio would be skewed much further to the sweet end of the spectrum. There would still be dry holes and weak producers, but nowhere near as many as we have today.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16248
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 08:59:53

"I think he is nuts. We must attract that sort?". Hey...I resemble that remark! Sorry...I meant resent.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11304
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 09:23:04

T - "Judging by drilling activity over the last six months somewhere around half of the drilling that took place in 2013-2014 would not have taken place without risky high interest loans to the fracking industry." Of course not. I'm not sure if folks think I'm kidding when I tell them the vast majority of oil patch management knew it was on the road to ruin. But it didn't matter as long as they were able to monetize their personal benefits before the bubble popped. Many times we've talked about the pressure of quarter to quarter improvements over long term gains for the pubcos. The motivation was simple. Maybe too simple for some folks to accept: make a sh*t load of money as fast as possible because we're likely setting the company up for a monumental failure long term. Lots of folks think oil patch management is a bunch of evil bastards only interested in their financial well-being. Well...Da!!! How is that different than the vast majority of management in all businesses? Trust me: the Rockman is really a nice guy. But the primary reason he does this sh*t is for his personal benefit and that of his family.…just like 99.9% of Americans do in their own little world. But he doesn’t lie or even misrepresent the facts to the folks who invest in his projects. Just one more reason he never got into the EFS play. LOL.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11304
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Synapsid » Fri 02 Oct 2015, 19:13:55

For all:

There's a nice clear article on Rigzone today describing Encana and others in the oil patch talking about choking back initial production from LTO wells, since that will mean more stable production and greater ultimate recovery.

What a good idea.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 03 Oct 2015, 23:10:11

Folks really need to think about the simple math for a minute: "The difference can be seen in Karnes County, Texas, the heart of the state’s Eagle Ford shale region. EOG Resources Inc. drilled there last fall, delivering an average 2,000 barrels of oil a day in their first month. For its part, Encana wells produced about a third of the output in the equivalent period." So EnCana has wells that could produce 2,000 bopd but they choke them back to 700 bopd initially. Hello!!!! Can we say a 70% decline rate it one day...not 1 year. Of course the f*cking pressure declines slower: these are fixed volumes of pore space that produce by pressure depletion: slow down the production volume and slow down the pressure decline. As far as increasing URR by the magnitude they toss out I've never seen a single model offer anything close to that possibility. And yes: produce a frac'd well too hard and you can pull in frac sand. Which is operators made a point of not doing so since the first wells were frac'd over half a century ago.

Just more BS so management can boost the value of their stock options before they go further down the toilet. Choke the wells back and there's one absolute certainty: cash flow will suffer. But here's the real benefit they don't want you to understand: they don't decrease proven reserves as quickly so there's less demand to replace them y-o-y. And that's a key metric Wall Street uses to value pubcos.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11304
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Synapsid » Sat 03 Oct 2015, 23:49:01

ROCKMAN,

They do say that decline will be less steep, but, as you point out, that isn't expressed in terms of 1) effect on reserves, or 2) the Wall Street connection, but that is seldom mentioned in these public announcements, is it?

I like to take the article as reflection on the drawbacks of the hell-for-leather approach to LTO that we've been watching, whether that reflection was intentional or not.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 14:21:11

Syn - Just a reminder of the most critical factor in determining the economic viability of any shale producer: the initial cash flow rate. Which is obviously dependent upon the initial production rate. Da! LOL. Significantly reduce that IP rate and you significantly reduce the rate of return. In fact (if you understand how companies calculate NPV...net resent value) reducing the viable IP rate enough and a potentially positive return well becomes a money loser. And understand how this effects the economic evaluation of an undrilled well: it reduces the economic viability of every drilling proposal.

If they artificially reduce the expected IP rate of proposed prospects they will kill more wells then the lower oil price alone would have done. So again understand the goal: by arbitrarily reducing the production rate of existing wells they are trying to confuse investors into not noticing the company's diminishing value. A truly amateurish effort to misrepresent reality to the investors IMHO.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11304
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby Synapsid » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 17:30:01

RCKMN,

Let's see: If they'd reduced that initial IP rate back in the day then many of the wells that have caused the overkill would not have been drilled and the LTO situation might not have been nearly as dire as it is.

I'm not saying that the choking article makes sense now, just that it would have been nice if it had been the view at the time of the LTO takeoff. I can see why it wasn't, as you point out: looking at those juicy high IP rates and the rapid cash flow that allows drilling more wells for more rapid cash flow...

Plus lenders looking at interest rates of zip and handing out money like there's no...oh...wait...
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 21:21:50

Re: The Eagle Ford Shale Today

Unread postby wildbourgman » Sun 04 Oct 2015, 22:43:01

As far as increasing URR by the magnitude they toss out I've never seen a single model offer anything close to that possibility.


I read the article too but, I would like to see EnCana's URR results in a few years versus other companies in similar areas before I would say anything one way or another. It seems logical that having prudent reservoir management controls in place will help the URR in Shale plays as it does in some conventional plays. I realize that they are saying a lot more in the article but in time the results will speak for themselves.
wildbourgman
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 483
Joined: Sun 07 Jul 2013, 10:05:52

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests