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The Eagle Ford Shale

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 09:49:44

ROCKMAN wrote:"The pressure drop along the propped fracture allows hydrocarbons to flow from the shale in the immediate proximity of the created fracture into the fracture." I've never seen a single flow model that allowed the extremely low permeability of any shale formation to flow a commercial volume of hydrocarbons from the shale matrix alone. I would be thrilled if you could show me one


Would commercial production from an open hole and non-stimulated Devonian shale well from the 70's suffice? No proppant, no stimulation, no production casing, hit it natural and produced for decades afterwards.

Producing interval confirmed by production and camera log, and the simulator and production decline analysis says, as Rocdoc has mentioned, that fracture storage (in this case only the natural system evident in this well) can account for no more than 4% of the cumulative production to date (drainage area of 50 acres calculated from a Fetkovitch analysis).
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 09:58:21

ROCKMAN wrote:Sam - So I take it you consider ever accident evidence of malfeasance: every industrial accident, every airline accident, every school bus accident as wee as every other automobile accident.


Of course not. I am saying that those who want to stop some activity they do not like will do their best to cast it in the worst possible light. With Macondo still fresh on everyone's mind, it is easy for them to now use that example as their whipping boy for ALL blowouts.

Look how this works, you mentioned an Eagleford blowout, the response is "it could have been as bad as Macondo if they were drilling for oil, I wonder what safety practice wasn't followed like on Macondo". Everything just gets turned into a Macondo example because it is the boogeyman blowout they will use to drive home how all blowouts are based on malfeasance, neglect or negligence. Why? Because they want all drilling to stop, and the only way it can continue is if it is "safe".

There is no way to meet this particular impossible standard for any industry, but it sounds good, and they want drilling to stop in general, so this is the way they want to drive the debate.

Rockman wrote:
As I've said before: the only way to prevent all future blow outs is to stop all drilling.


And that is what they want. Therefore, all blowouts must be like the Macondo, and must be made completely safe. Knowing this will give them the answer they are looking for.

They haven't gotten around to figuring out what that means to their personal transportation and energy use habits yet, but no one said they are all that smart in the long run, obviously unicorn farts will come along after all that nasty drilling stops and save the day.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 10:50:19

Rockman wrote:
I've never seen a single flow model that allowed the extremely low permeability of any shale formation to flow a commercial volume of hydrocarbons from the shale matrix alone. I would be thrilled if you could show me one


There is a plethora of literature dealing with this subject, here are some examples:

Javadpour, F., 2009, Nanopores and apparent permeability of gas flow in mudrocks (shales and siltstone) Journal of Canadian Petroleum Technology, V48, 8, pp 16-21

Abstract
Gas-producing mudrock systems are playing an important role in the volatile energy industry in North America and will soon play an equally important role in Europe. Mudrocks are composed of very fine grained particles, and their pores are very small, at the scale of nanometers. Gas production from these strata is much greater than what is anticipated given their very low Darcy permeability. In this paper, images of nanopores obtained by Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) are presented for the first time. Gas flow in nanopores cannot be described simply by the Darcy equation. Processes such as Knudsen diffusion and slip flow at the solid matrix separate gas flow behaviour from Darcy-type flow. We present a formulation for gas flow in the nanopores of mudrocks based on Knudsen diffusion and slip flow. By comparing this new gas flow formulation and Darcy flow for compressible gas, we introduce an apparent permeability term that includes the complexity of flow in nanopores, and it takes the form of the Darcy equation so that it can easily be implemented in reservoir simulators. Results show that the ratio of apparent permeability to Darcy permeability increases sharply as pore sizes reduce to smaller than 100 nm. Also, Knudsen diffusion's contributions to flow increase as pores become smaller. Unlike Darcy permeability, which is a characteristic of the rock only, permeation of gas in nanopores of mudrocks depends on rock, gas type and operating conditions.



Ozkan, E. Raghaven, R, Apaydin, O.G., 2010, Modeling of Fluid Transfer from Shale Matrix to Fracture Network. SPE 134830-MS, 10.2118/134830-MS

abstract
The objective of this paper is to incorporate a more detailed description of flow in shale matrix to improve modeling of production from fractured shale-gas reservoirs. Currently, most modeling approaches for shale-gas and –oil production are based on the dominance of Darcy flow in both natural fractures and matrix. We improve the description of matrix flow by considering diffusive (Knudsen) flow in nanopores. In our dual-mechanism approach, when Darcy flow becomes insignificant due to nanodarcy matrix permeability, Knudsen flow takes over and contributes, substantially, to the transfer of fluids from matrix to fracture network.
Furthermore, we consider stress-dependent permeability in the fracture network. Therefore, incorporating Darcy and diffusive flows in the matrix and stress-dependent permeability in the fractures, we develop a dual-mechanism dual-porosity naturally fractured reservoir formulation and derive a new transfer function for fractured shale-gas reservoirs. The dual-mechanism dualporosity formulation presented in this paper can be used for numerical or analytical modeling purposes. We use the new formulation of matrix to fracture fluid transfer with an analytical model and demonstrate the differences from the conventional formulation.


Swami, V, Settari, T, 2012, A pore scale gas flow model for shale gas reservoir, SPE 155756-MS, 10.2118/155756-MS

Abstract
It has been observed that the shale gas production modeled with conventional simulators/models is much lower than actually observed field data. Generally reservoir and/or stimulated reservoir volume (SRV) parameters are modified (without much physical support) to match production data. One of the important parameters controlling flow is the effective permeability of the intact shale. In this project we aim to model flow in shale nano pores by capturing the physics behind the actual process. For the flow dynamics, in addition to Darcy flow, the effects of slippage at the boundary of pores and Knudsen diffusion have been included. For the gas source, the compressed gas stored in pore spaces, gas adsorbed at pore walls and gas diffusing from the kerogen have been considered. To imitate the actual scenario, real gas has been considered to model the flow. Partial differential equations were derived capturing the physics and finite difference method was used to solve the coupled differential equations numerically. The contribution of Knudsen diffusion and gas slippage, gas desorption and gas diffusion from kerogen to total production was studied in detail. It was seen that including the additional physics causes significant differences in pressure gradients and increases cumulative production. We conclude that the above effects should be considered while modeling and making production forecasts for shale gas reservoirs.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 12:32:42

Sam - There are many thousands of wells that have produced a lot of oil/NG which were never frac'd. That wasn't what I said, was it? Some of the best wells produced from tite reservoirs did so from naturally occurring fractures. In 1979 I completed a well on the Carmine lease outside of Giddings that flowed 600 bopd from the non-frac'd Austin Chalk. This well offset a well drilled by Mosbacher. They had such severe lost circulation from the natural fractures the had to junk and abandon it.

As far as doc's respond it didn't answer my request: show me just one flow calculation where a commercial rate of hydrocarbon can be achieved from an unfractured (manmade or natural) from any rock matrix with a permeability measured in a thousanths or even a hundredth of a milladarcy.

I wish I could give all the non-geogeeks here some everyday examples of what were debating. Some of the materials in your homes that you wouldn't think much fluid could easily flow thru is a permeable as a spaghetti sieve compared to NON- FRACTURED shale.

I'll make it easy: show me the flow calculation of a 3,000' lateral hole thru an unfractured shale with a perm of 0.1 md assuming dry gas. I'll even let you pick a ridiculously high pressure differential. Just show me a commercial flow rate and you win.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 14:01:57

Sam - Sorry...misread your emphasis. Just for the fun of it I looked up the stats. During the last 5 years between 11 and 18 hands per were killed on rigs as a result of "fires and explosions". That includes accidents other than blow outs but the B. Of Labor Stats didn't break it down further. By comparison last year in the US:

6000 killed texting while driving
8 children killed while riding a school bus
54 folks were killed by dogs
20 were folks killed by ants
82 folks died from falling out of their beds

Obviously I left out the biggies out like car and all other on the job accidents. That would be to easy. I wonder what the public attitude would be about flat screen TV's and unattended mop buckets that are responsible for more child deaths per year than from all the blow outs on the planet during the average year if they gave those accidents the same coverage.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 17:19:23

ROCKMAN wrote:Sam - There are many thousands of wells that have produced a lot of oil/NG which were never frac'd. That wasn't what I said, was it?


No. This is what you said.

I've never seen a single flow model that allowed the extremely low permeability of any shale formation to flow a commercial volume of hydrocarbons from the shale matrix alone. I would be thrilled if you could show me one.


I was just wondering why make a challenge using a flow equation when we have actual commercial wells, never been fracked, vertical, open hole completion, Devonian shale wells as proof. Particularly one with enough decades of production history to be able to calculate the fracture and matrix storage components, showing that natural fracture storage only accounted for a small percentage of production, and the matrix the rest.

Down with calculations! Give me producing wells showing that low permeability can work or give me death!!


Rockman wrote:I wish I could give all the non-geogeeks here some everyday examples of what were debating. Some of the materials in your homes that you wouldn't think much fluid could easily flow thru is a permeable as a spaghetti sieve compared to NON- FRACTURED shale.


Shale sucks for permeability. Good thing that A) natural fractures are common and B) connect this crappy rock rather extensively and C) producing sorbed gas doesn't require travel THROUGH permeability. Just touch it with a low enough pressure and let the Langmuir isotherm deliver what you wish!

Give me a calculation which correctly accounts for matrix shrinkage (and the resultant change in micro-scale permeability) because of the Langmuir isotherm or give me death!! Again!

You wild and crazy Texas guys...I'll bet you even think you figured out how to drill horizontal wells first! :-D
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 17:23:13

ROCKMAN wrote:Obviously I left out the biggies out like car and all other on the job accidents. That would be to easy. I wonder what the public attitude would be about flat screen TV's and unattended mop buckets that are responsible for more child deaths per year than from all the blow outs on the planet during the average year if they gave those accidents the same coverage.


It is unfair, the burden that the oil and gas industry must bear, particularly when you consider how much of the economy it makes up, how important it is, how well paying the jobs are, how valuable the taxes.

But some people just seem to think it should all go away because, oh goodness, it is icky and sometimes people get killed and they have these dramatic events called BLOW outs, and stuff burns and everything!!

I say that anyone who cannot explain how they heat their homes and food and what powers their car and where all that energy comes from should be deprived of the thing itself, and see for themselves what happens to the quality of their lives.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 18:17:54

as far as doc's respond it didn't answer my request: show me just one flow calculation where a commercial rate of hydrocarbon can be achieved from an unfractured (manmade or natural) from any rock matrix with a permeability measured in a thousanths or even a hundredth of a milladarcy.


I did not say that the shale flows at commercial rates on its own, what I said was the shale matrix permeability replenishes the created fractures. You do not need natural fractures present. And the papers that I pointed to describe that mechanism in detail.

What you had said was:

A point for folks who haven't heard it before: you can frac a shale until the cows come home but if you don't tap into a naturally existing fracture you won't make a well. The shale rock itself isn't producing all that oil/NG. It is coming from those natural fractures that have taken millions of years to accumulate the hydrocarbons in them.


which as I point out is completely incorrect.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Sat 31 Aug 2013, 20:16:13

rockdoc123 wrote:
The shale rock itself isn't producing all that oil/NG. It is coming from those natural fractures that have taken millions of years to accumulate the hydrocarbons in them.


which as I point out is completely incorrect.


Yeah, that is a bit of a tough pill to swallow. Of course the shale matrix produces, what I think is neat is when you see it in a camera log. Do they even run those anymore? I've got 3 or 4 wells we ran those things on way back when, watching the shale "sweat" oil and gas was just wild-cool for investor presentations.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 03 Sep 2013, 14:35:33

doc/sam - That's great. I'm still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm. As I said earlier I'll even allow an unrealistic high pressure differential. Now show me how much oil/NG will flow out of a 6" diameter hole through 100' of unfractured shale matrix. I await with baited breath. LOL.

And though it's been a while I once saw the juice flowing out of the formation in a TV vid. And it was coming from fractures that clearly showed up on the Schlumberger FMI log. But could really see the fractures on the vid itself. So I suppose it would look like it was coming out of the matrix.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 03 Sep 2013, 15:02:01

I'm still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm.


not sure why I bothered to give the references I did if you can't be bothered to look at them. They speak directly to your question....they model flow from the shale matrix to the fractures. Not sure what else you could possibly be looking for.

As I said if you are arguing there is no flow from the matrix to the fractures then you are arguing that the only storage capacity is in natural fractures. That would mean there is very, very little hydrocarbons possibly recoverable from shale formations...almost certainly much less than has been produced. As a sense check a natural fracture that is 1/8 inch in aperature (that is wide for the depths considered) and extends 500 feet in both directions would hold 500 bbls of oil. Given the Eagle ford average EUR/well is about 250,000 bbls that means you would need that well bore to connect with ~50,000 fractures of that size. If you believe that is possible I have a bridge you might also be interested in buying.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale Blow Out

Unread postby SamInNebraska » Tue 03 Sep 2013, 20:24:35

ROCKMAN wrote:doc/sam - That's great. I'm still waiting to see the simple flow calculation as to how much oil/NG can flow out of an unfractured shale matrix with just a fraction of a md perm.


Wait all you'd like, I got the well, sure don't need a calculation to prove these things work just fine.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 09 Nov 2013, 23:37:37

The interesting side note to the expansion of EFS oil production isn't the volume but where it's going. From Rig Zone: " Energy Transfer Partners will convert a Texas natural gas pipeline system to move Eagle Ford shale crude and condensate to Trafigura's Corpus Christi terminal, the companies said on Thursday. The agreement calls for Energy Transfer to convert the 82-mile (132 km) pipeline system to move about 100,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate from the prolific shale oil play to Trafigura's growing terminal operation. The converted South Texas pipeline system is expected to start up in the next nine months to a year. They are also is building a second deepwater dock, 850 feet long with a 45-foot draft, capable of loading an Aframax vessel at the Corpus Christi terminal. When finished by the first quarter next year, the second dock, combined with existing infrastructure, will allow Trafigura to berth three medium-range tankers and two inland barges simultaneously. The terminal's capacity also will increase. Since mid-2011, Trafigura has delivered Eagle Ford crude and condensate, offloading output from trucks onto barges for shipment to U.S. Gulf Coast terminals. Jeff Kopp, Trafigura's director of oil for North America, said the project will give Eagle Ford producers the "maximum amount of flexibility" to get their output to markets.

What's interesting is that they don't care to explain the "maximum amount of flexibility" aspect. It's the ability to not only haul oil to Gulf Coast refineries but also to ones in eastern Canada. Thanks to another previously reversed pipeline at least 50,000 bbls per day of EFS oil is being shipped to Corpus Christi where tankers wait 10 - 20 days to be loaded before they haul the oil up the east coast to the Canadian refineries. As described below it's more profitable, despite the shipping costs, to do so.

And another surprise for folks who have been distracted over the plans for the Keystone Pipeline system to ship Alberta oil to the US: were you aware that almost 200,000 bbls of US oil has been shipped via a pipeline to Alberta with plans to increase to over 300,000 bpd? From Rig Zone again: How to Profit From Canada's Crude Oil Shortage

"Yes, you read that headline correctly. In spite of surging production from the Alberta oil sands, Canada is in the midst of an oil shortage. According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, bitumen output from the Alberta oil sands is projected to double by 2022 to 3.8 million barrels per day. The problem with bitumen is that it's too thick to flow freely on its own. It must be mixed with a super-light oil called condensate so that it can be shipped through pipelines. With growing oil sands production, condensate demand is poised to sky-rocket as well. Based on estimates provided by the Energy Resource Conservation Board, the demand for condensate in Alberta could double to 650,000 bpd within the next decade. Today, condensate is the most prized hydrocarbon in Alberta with the light oil trading for a 10% premium over West Texas Intermediate. Analysts fear shortages could result as imports struggle to keep up with demand.

Yet south of the 49th parallel, the United States is facing a condensate glut. In the Texas Eagle Ford, condensate production accounts for as much as 30% of output. With forecasters projecting Eagle Ford production to exceed one million barrels per day by next year, much of that will be condensate. But here's the problem. Nearby Gulf coast refineries aren't well equipped to handle the super light oil bubbling out of the Texas shale. Over the last decade, refineries spent billions of dollars outfitting their plants to process heavy sour blends. Additionally, refining condensate isn't profitable. The light oil doesn't produce the higher value distillates used to make diesel or jet fuel. So with an unexpected surge in condensate production and low demand from refineries, you have a recipe for low prices. In general, Gulf coast refineries have been paying $15 per barrel less for condensate than light oil varieties. That's great for downstream marketers. But that discount is coming right out of the pockets of shale producers.

Canada needs condensate. The U.S. has too much of the stuff. The challenge is moving it. Who's poised to profit? At the moment, the only way to export condensate to Canada is through the Enbridge Southern Lights pipeline which transports 180,000 bpd from Illinois to Alberta. The problem is shipping condensate from Texas to Patoka, Illinois where the line begins. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners is trying to position itself as the leading condensate shipper. The company built a condensate pipeline that can move 300,000 bpd from the shale basin to the Houston area. From Houston, condensate can be shipped through a third-party Explorer pipeline to Hammond, Illinois. Admittedly Illinois is still on long way from northern Alberta. To get the condensate the rest of the way Kinder Morgan has two strategies. First, extend the Explorer pipeline to connect with Southern Lights. That link should be in service by 2014. Second, connect Explorer to the company's existing Cochin pipeline. Propane volumes along the route have been in decline anyway. The company is looking to reverse and expand Cochin to start shipping condensate to Alberta.
At the moment, the only way to export condensate to Canada is through the Enbridge Southern Lights pipeline which transports 180,000 bpd from Illinois to Alberta. The problem is shipping condensate from Texas to Patoka, Illinois where the line begins."

And since none of these plans require a new border crossing pipeline no approval of the POTUS is required. Also notice the flexibility to ship EFS oil via tanker to Houston from where it can be pipelined to Alberta. This might seem like an exorbitant amount of oil movement but remember it's a system designed to handle not $billions of future commerce but $TRILLIONS.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 06 Dec 2013, 10:36:05

Go Eagle Ford!!! Interesting that even with the production surge oil is still very pricey. From RigZone;

Texas produced oil at a record rate in September, according to data by the EIA. Daily crude oil production in the Lone Star State for the month averaged 2.7 million barrels of oil, the highest figure since the EIA began tracking monthly figures in 1981. In less than three years, Texas has more than doubled its year-on-year daily oil production, based on the September daily average figure. University of Michigan economist Mark Perry noted that oil production in Texas had increased by more than 25% year-on-year for 25 months in a row. “Output in America’s No. 1 oil-producing state – Texas – continues its phenomenal, meteoric rise,” Perry wrote. “That production surge has to be one of the most significant increases in oil output ever recorded in the U.S. over such a short period of time.” The all-time monthly Texas record for oil production was 3.4 million barrels of oil per day in 1972, according to the Texas Railroad Commission. However, production has been on the decline since at least 1981.

But it's also good to remember the risk of being put on a high pedestal: it can lead to a long painful fall one day.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 Dec 2013, 16:07:19

The shallower parts of the EF are now producing oil using waterless fracking. These shales contain clays that hydrate and expand and decrease permeability if tracked using water but produce just fine w waterless fracking

This opens up a large new area of the EF to development

waterless fracking in the EF delivers oil
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 06 Dec 2013, 17:21:23

P – Interesting. Must be a very new well since the TRRC has no report of any recent EFS well coming on line in Maverick County since Newfield brought in the # 2806H Cage Ranch well one year ago. Initial production rate was 9 bopd with no NG reported. The only other EFS producers coming on line in the county in the last three years were a total of 7 that had initial production rates of 1, 1, 2, 9, 31, 34 and 165 bopd. After 2.2 years that 165 bopd well has made 22k bo and is down to 10 bopd.

No mention of any well operated by Terrace Energy at all. But the TRRC is usually several months behind in their postings. I did find one report that the well produced 11,500 bo in the first 15 days. Time will tell about the decline rate. Oil-based fracs for water sensitive formations is a decades old method. Did my first one about 20 years ago. Maybe they’ve discovered a magic bullet for the EFS in Maverick County. They’ll need it: folks have been poking the EFS in that county for a long time. There have only been 36 wells completed in the EFS in Maverick County since the beginning of the oil age. The best well has made 39k bo since it went online in April of 1980. The best hz well came on in Aug 2010 and has made 26k bo. It came on at 200 bopd and is now down to 45 bopd. Maverick Country has not been a very good place to drill the EFS.

Time will tell if those Canadian lads will change the story. But I might wait a year to see where that well is at before I would start counting those eggs.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 06 Dec 2013, 19:05:28

ROCKMAN wrote:No mention of any well operated by Terrace Energy at all. But the TRRC is usually several months behind in their postings. I did find one report that the well produced 11,500 bo in the first 15 days. Time will tell about the decline rate. Oil-based fracs for water sensitive formations is a decades old method. Did my first one about 20 years ago. Maybe they’ve discovered a magic bullet for the EFS in Maverick County. They’ll need it: folks have been poking the EFS in that county for a long time. There have only been 36 wells completed in the EFS in Maverick County since the beginning of the oil age. The best well has made 39k bo since it went online in April of 1980. The best hz well came on in Aug 2010 and has made 26k bo. It came on at 200 bopd and is now down to 45 bopd. Maverick Country has not been a very good place to drill the EFS.


What do you think the upper limit on EFS will be? 1 MMbbl/d, 2 MMbbl/d?
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 08 Dec 2013, 11:44:59

Sub - That requires assuming a number of factors. Obviously oil price determines if drilling activity continues at the current pace. Then there's a question of continued capex availability by the oil patch. And finally it doesn't matter how high the price of oil and how much capex we have to spend, once the majority of viable locations are drilled production will fall. Every trend ever developed eventually gets drilled up.

So I can offer a wide range of answers depending upon what assumptions I choose to make. And since I don't have that magical ability of accurately predicting future oil prices I don't have a freaking idea what/when PEFS is reached.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby John_A » Sun 08 Dec 2013, 12:29:38

ROCKMAN wrote:But it's also good to remember the risk of being put on a high pedestal: it can lead to a long painful fall one day.


Tell us how your company and owner wouldn't LOVE to have all that production Rockman. Regardless of his knowledge, and yours, that underneath all of this production increase, already eating away at the total, holding it back every day, never stopping, never resting, coiled up within the numbers like Smaug in his gold, is the decreasing reservoir pressure that comes with it.

As it was before you and I were born, so it shall be after we are gone.

There is no "can lead to a fall", there is just...the inevitable consequence of reducing reservoir pressure. There is no painful, it is not a surprise, it is known BEFORE production starts, and it is only the amateurs who think it is new, who think it only begins happening when the aggregate rate declines.

Just because, like a goldfish, it is new to them when they learn of it, forget it, and learn it again, that is not how you, you owner, or anyone who knows anything about reservoir management, Fetkovitch analysis, or Darcy's Law thinks about it. You, him, and them, already know, and it has been a part of your lives since Day 1 in the industry.
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Re: Eagle Ford Shale may soon reach 1 million barrels per da

Unread postby John_A » Sun 08 Dec 2013, 12:32:20

ROCKMAN wrote:Sub - That requires assuming a number of factors. Obviously oil price determines if drilling activity continues at the current pace. Then there's a question of continued capex availability by the oil patch. And finally it doesn't matter how high the price of oil and how much capex we have to spend, once the majority of viable locations are drilled production will fall. Every trend ever developed eventually gets drilled up.

So I can offer a wide range of answers depending upon what assumptions I choose to make. And since I don't have that magical abilityg of accurately predicting future oil prices I don't have a freaking idea what/when PEFS is reached.


The EIA utilizes a price path for oil, CapEx available from their demand side modeling, the amount of productive area available, the size and decline of the wells. Sounds like they've got the bases covered Rock, if this is all that is needed to begin projecting. This is a good thing, having their system independently validated by industry folks.
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