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The death of Globalism

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 04 May 2020, 17:26:06

I think NY to London was costing $1,000 or so before the virus. More like $3,000 to $4,000 now.

There are yachts and yachts. Some are everything you imagine. But many are folks squishing a nickel to make it work. For them, and me, it’s a low cost way to live. Low energy impact, small foot print. Low end folks exist, and travel, for $1,000/month. That’s pretty lean for we two.

Try reading “Voyaging in a Small Income” to get some sense of the matter.

Here’s a joke to explain how cheap we are.

A traveling salesman walks into a shoreside bar at about 3:00 in the afternoon and asks for a drink, a Manhattan. The bar tender sets him right up and says that’ll be 50¢. FIFTY CENTS you say? That’s crazy cheap. The bar keep replies, “Yeah, well I won a mega lotto some years ago so I don’t need the money. I just want to make folks happy so I run at a loss.” The salesman says. “OK, but I see a bunch of guys sitting at a table over there with no drinks, what’s up with that?”

“Oh, that’s the local cruisers, they are waiting for Happy Hour.” 8)
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 04 May 2020, 17:30:29

Newfie wrote:
“Oh, that’s the local cruisers, they are waiting for Happy Hour.” 8)


Sounds like the local American expat community here in Panama.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby C8 » Thu 28 May 2020, 23:46:27

This thread is called the Death of Globalism- I can remember reading 10 years ago how robots were going to make things cheaper in the US than outsourcing to China, etc.

What happened?
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 29 May 2020, 06:51:28

C8 wrote:This thread is called the Death of Globalism- I can remember reading 10 years ago how robots were going to make things cheaper in the US than outsourcing to China, etc.

What happened?

China is building and owning the robots.

C8, do you read anything else after you get done reading every word zerohedge cranks out each day?
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby C8 » Fri 29 May 2020, 15:17:14

vtsnowedin wrote:
C8 wrote:This thread is called the Death of Globalism- I can remember reading 10 years ago how robots were going to make things cheaper in the US than outsourcing to China, etc.

What happened?

China is building and owning the robots.

C8, do you read anything else after you get done reading every word zerohedge cranks out each day?


vtsnowedin. do you attack everybody after your inflatable wife springs a leak?
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 29 May 2020, 17:34:09

C8 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
C8 wrote:This thread is called the Death of Globalism- I can remember reading 10 years ago how robots were going to make things cheaper in the US than outsourcing to China, etc.

What happened?

China is building and owning the robots.

C8, do you read anything else after you get done reading every word zerohedge cranks out each day?


vtsnowedin. do you attack everybody after your inflatable wife springs a leak?
Why do you consider that question an attack that requires a crude rebuttal?
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 May 2020, 17:50:50

Globalization is finished. It will be working in reverse henceforth. The Pandemic and ensuing Grest Depression 2.0 are the catalysts. Peak oil is the final nail in the coffin
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 May 2020, 19:03:48

onlooker wrote:Globalization is finished. It will be working in reverse henceforth. The Pandemic and ensuing Grest Depression 2.0 are the catalysts. Peak oil is the final nail in the coffin


Good job. Spoken like a good doomer NPC.

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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 May 2020, 20:06:47

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:Globalization is finished. It will be working in reverse henceforth. The Pandemic and ensuing Grest Depression 2.0 are the catalysts. Peak oil is the final nail in the coffin


Good job. Spoken like a good doomer NPC.

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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby REAL Green » Tue 02 Jun 2020, 06:04:30

I call the results of the recent economic shock globalism2 because it is my opinion reviewing the broad range of decline variables that the economic dimension will not recover to former output and at the same time there will be a lag with population adjustments. This means not only is output dropping but per-capita output drop is even worse. I am taking these US results and extrapolating to the world mainly because all major economic blocks have suffered similar results from Covid.

“Comparison of CBO’s May 2020 Interim Projections of Gross Domestic Product and Its January 2020 Baseline Projections”
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56376?u ... 1_14:30:00

CBO’s May projection of real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 was $724 billion (or 13.3 percent) lower in 2019 dollars than the agency’s projection from January. Beyond the second quarter of 2020, the difference between those projections of real GDP shrinks, to $422 billion in 2019 dollars (7.6 percent lower in the more recent projection) by the end of 2020 and roughly disappears by 2030. As a result of those differences, CBO projects that over the 11-year horizon, cumulative real output (in 2019 dollars) will be $7.9 trillion, or 3.0 percent of cumulative real GDP, less than what the agency projected in January.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 02 Jun 2020, 10:35:25

I am taking these US results and extrapolating to the world mainly because all major economic blocks have suffered similar results from Covid.


It may be convenient to blame the crash on a super mutated killer pathogen. In reality there has been no killer bug. This year's flu epidemic has been no more lethal, with much fewer infections than last year, and much, much less than many years over the last few decades. This crash resulted from an exploding, and unmanageable world debt. That debt has now reached $360 trillion, and is growing by $48 trillion a year.

The central banks have been converting existing assets into consumables through excessive currency creation. Those existing assets have now declined to a level that makes further conversion impossible. We have now come to the end of the era where we can consume our seed corn to supply the illusion of economic growth.

The world has reached its limit of economic expansion because of resource constraints. Fossil fuels, water, metals, and arable land now provide insurmountable barriers to economies. Extrapolations from petroleum production show a present maximum world economic potential of $62 trillion a year, and without major adjustments in how we do business that will continue to decline in the coming years. The central banks ability to effect economies through currency manipulation has now ended. The end game can be mapped by observing the world's energy flows. Some economic blocks will do better than others for a period; they will all deteriorate significantly. For raw materials the earth is a closed system, and modern civilization has reached the limit on how much of those raw materials it can extract.

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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 17:11:36

Globalism could survive if the cost of shipping were to get significantly cut. For example the Arctic Sea Route will cut costs a lot even if nothing else changes. Then add in something like say nuclear tugboats to allow conventional ships to transit the arctic without releasing emissions from fossil fuels. Just picture a nuclear tugboat/icebreaker that could latch onto a conventional freighter drag it safely through the sea ice going east from Europe. Then once it is past the sea ice it releases thd east bound freighter to finish its run independently while the icebreaker/tug latches onto a west bound freighter and takes it back through the ice westbound to Europe.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 22 Jul 2020, 20:52:09

Real Green"
CBO’s May projection of real GDP in the second quarter of 2020 was $724 billion (or 13.3 percent) lower in 2019 dollars than the agency’s projection from January.

Big numbers indeed but I think we need to refine the way we look at the data. GDP after all is a Gross number where every dollar is counted the same be it for a sheet of steel, a loaf of bread or a tip at the stripper club.
While we have been shut down things like dinning out or hanging out at the bar have been shut off while essential production from energy to food production have carried on . So the real hit to our society is much less then the GDP as usually computed would indicate. Did it really do you any harm to miss a hair cut or two?
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 23 Jul 2020, 06:55:22

vtsnowedin wrote:Big numbers indeed but I think we need to refine the way we look at the data. GDP after all is a Gross number where every dollar is counted the same be it for a sheet of steel, a loaf of bread or a tip at the stripper club. While we have been shut down things like dinning out or hanging out at the bar have been shut off while essential production from energy to food production have carried on . So the real hit to our society is much less then the GDP as usually computed would indicate. Did it really do you any harm to miss a hair cut or two?


This is true and some of this activity squashed needed to be squashed becuase it was not productive. It was consumptive without productive. But keep in mind the systematic affect of velocity of money and economy of scale. In todays hyper world many important activities are supported by economies of scale. Many things are available becuase of mass production. This consumptive component that is not productive at face value but is supportive with economy of scale. The question is then will some of this nonproductive behavior ended be creative destruction? Was there too much a component of consumptive non productive activity? I think there was but how far activity drops is an issue. Deflation leads to poverty just as inflation does. Stagflation can be the worst of both worlds.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 23 Jul 2020, 12:31:47

Subjectivist wrote:Globalism could survive if the cost of shipping were to get significantly cut. For example the Arctic Sea Route will cut costs a lot even if nothing else changes. Then add in something like say nuclear tugboats to allow conventional ships to transit the arctic without releasing emissions from fossil fuels. Just picture a nuclear tugboat/icebreaker that could latch onto a conventional freighter drag it safely through the sea ice going east from Europe. Then once it is past the sea ice it releases thd east bound freighter to finish its run independently while the icebreaker/tug latches onto a west bound freighter and takes it back through the ice westbound to Europe.

Globalism is more to do with producing goods cheaper in one part of the world and being able to sell them elsewhere cheaper than locally produced goods of the same type. The size of modern cargo ships make the transportation costs insignificant relative to the sale price of small expensive products, and many cheaper ones as well.

The thing that will kill globalisation is wage equality between producer & consumer countries, resulting in the cost difference being almost zero and if the local products are of good quality, no one will buy the imported stuff.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby REAL Green » Fri 24 Jul 2020, 05:13:07

dolanbaker wrote:The thing that will kill globalisation is wage equality between producer & consumer countries, resulting in the cost difference being almost zero and if the local products are of good quality, no one will buy the imported stuff.


Comparative advantage is deeper than wage disparity but wage disparity is evident now with China's value chain concentrations shifting to SE Asia. A big threat to globalism is nationalism and efforts by countries like the US to weaponize finance. Indebtedness is another issue by causing economic velocity to decline (deflation). Confidence in the system may soon take a more prominent role as countries call into question various currencies and their value. A hot war between major economic powers like China and US will likely be catastrophic. Transport is a smaller issue but energy is a large factor so energy and transport could become larger issue. Technology could lower the need to travel. The pandemic is illustrating this by allowing people to meet digitally. Policy is another issue. AGW has nations talking about carbon reductions. Lots of carbon in transport and travel. Lots of unneeded consumerism.

I listed all these issues but there are more if I brain stormed. My point is globalism is an ecosystem with many interrelated components. The reason globalism is currently in decline is the number of these components that are declining in efficiency and cost. Cost is a huge factor in globalism. This is the great equalizer. Is there a tipping point? I imagine there are many possibilities where globalism will fail at least at the level of allowing the very sophisticated manufacture, financialization and mass travel/transport. Human population and prosperity levels means we are trapped in the need for globalism with many vital needs especially food that will create an extreme inertia to change. No nation can dispense with globalism without extreme pain. Even North Korea trades globally. So any of these policy related declines will be tempered beyond a point where pain surfaces.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 24 Jul 2020, 05:42:15

Agreed, there is much more to it than just wage disparity, but modern globalisation was founded on the offshoring of manufacturing consumer products.
Global trade, of course will always continue as many products/resources are only available in certain parts of the world, oil being a classic example.
Globalisation will never completely go away if you include the export of regional specific products & resources, that trade has been going on since the start of humanity. But what could shrink substantially would be the global trade in consumer products that are just as easy to produce locally and this would be partially offset by an increase in the trade of raw materials.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby sparky » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 02:26:39

.
Globalism was based on contempt for workers rights
the more exploitative the more welcome the production platform were
while there was some vague request to comply with the world labor standards , this was blissfully ignored
even the use of convict labor was largely swept under the carpet

this was the essence of globalization....cheap labor making cheap consumer products for rich consumers countries

a second consideration was exporting the carbon intensive industries offshore
thus striking a manly blow against green house gases while having all the advantage of having the stuff made out of our backyards

eventually , reality knocked at the door with the bill
consuming without exporting meant a lot of countries got into debt , a lot
instead of making cheap carbon burning stuff , those dastardly poor countries were making high end stuff
that wasn't fair they were supposed to be at the bottom of the production and stay there

while Chinese workers were getting richer and more vocal ( the number of strikes was in the hundreds , each years )
the western workers resented being changed from working class heroes to unemployed bums
angry at not being listened to they used their votes as a protest

obviously a change of course is needed .....World War 3 anyone ???
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 06:37:02

sparky wrote:. Globalism was based on contempt for workers rights


Lets be fair here. Globalism is many things good and bad. Some of globalism is the attempt to affect sustainable development. It is also destructive with private profit at the public and commons expense. It is many thing just as an individual's life is a summation of failures and successes. Lets try to modify it to the better becuase there is no way to get rid of it without collpase. Too many people and the needs of prosperity too great. Late stage capitalism is a process. Growth is a process as is degrowth. We are likely near a tipping into decline where the chaos of destructive change will be an important influence. Can we also affect constructive change? If we only finger point with blame it is harder. If we accept the process it can be an easier process. Decline is painful and there will be suffering but there can also be the spiritual benefits of acceptance and motivation to affect a better decline. Truth and meaning are the awakened man's ultimate goal. Embracing decline if it is planetary reality offer meaning. Look around I think we are in a planetary decline which absolutely means a human decline.
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Re: The death of Globalism

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Jul 2020, 08:27:46

Globalism was based on contempt for workers rights


Globalism was based on extracting unlimited resources from a finite world.

The math didn't work out?

It was well known by the 1970's that the resources of several world's would be necessary to bring the entire world up to Western living standards. Some ones decided it could be profitable to try an do it any way. The rest of us sat back, and let them try. Greed, stupidity, and complacency have destroyed our civilization. We now have only to wait for the termites to bring it all down.
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