[Tanada]

Nuclear War isn't really fitting in this discussion so I moved those posts over to the correct thread. Please continue that discussion in the appropriate place, not here.
nuclear-war-dieoffs

[C8]

Globalism isn't dying- its growing.

More and more western nations are being filled with really old people who can't make their own things and would rather order from China than go across the street to the store.

Western nations are also becoming more filled with immigrants who are under-performing in schools and won't be able to learn high tech manufacturing.

Left wing regulations on pollution, discrimination, safety, etc. are forcing businesses to close down and move to nations with fewer rules.

Lawsuits are easy to launch in your own nation, but world trade agreements make them difficult to win against businesses in other nations. This is leading to offshoring.

Europe and America are becoming countries with tons of old white people, under educated immigrants, excessive rules, and endless lawsuits. Corona will not stop the fundamentals here.

And the cherry on the top: China is buying political power inside of nations by gaining control over their corporations. Foreign contributions are being laundered through local big businesses. Ford, BMW and Audi will deliver the bags for the lawmakers' votes.

The rest of the world? They want China more than ever.

[evilgenius]

I think much more than the death of globalism, people are going to be angry at their governments when the pandemic is over. That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society. I don't know if I trust any random generation to deal with those sorts of issues. God forbid, the conspiracy theorists rule the day.

[asg70]

That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

That's kind of how we got Trump, though. A lot of the conspiracy theories are coming from Trump's base but instead of implicating Trump himself they've made Bill Gates and the WHO a scapegoat.

Really, we're no smarter today than in the past. When times get tough people always seek out scapegoats rather than to accept the notion that what goes up must one day must come down.

[REAL Green]

That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

That's kind of how we got Trump, though. A lot of the conspiracy theories are coming from Trump's base but instead of implicating Trump himself they've made Bill Gates and the WHO a scapegoat.

Really, we're no smarter today than in the past. When times get tough people always seek out scapegoats rather than to accept the notion that what goes up must one day must come down.

You got Trump becuase you gave us Hillary. Trump should never of happened. Conspiracies are on both sides as the Flynn case now exposes all to see. Binary finger pointing will destroy society and this is from both sides. When failure is not owned, we all fail.

[Newfie]

Our society has a looong way to go downhill.

Just as a point of reference, a past incident.

Shortly after Gettysburg there were conscription riots in NYC. They destroyed the conscription office, looted an armory and generally ran amok looting and drinking. The Mayor asked for outside help and got troops hot from the Gettysburg battle, in no mood to fool around.

Order was restored shortly, between 300 and 1,000 rioters dead. They weren’t keeping much in the mood to keep records.

Things can get much uglier and still survive.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Yor ... raft_riots

[evilgenius]

That anger may actually rise up to the level where folks question embedded order within society.

That's kind of how we got Trump, though. A lot of the conspiracy theories are coming from Trump's base but instead of implicating Trump himself they've made Bill Gates and the WHO a scapegoat.

Really, we're no smarter today than in the past. When times get tough people always seek out scapegoats rather than to accept the notion that what goes up must one day must come down.

You got Trump becuase you gave us Hillary. Trump should never of happened. Conspiracies are on both sides as the Flynn case now exposes all to see. Binary finger pointing will destroy society and this is from both sides. When failure is not owned, we all fail.

The only problem with putting it that way is that it totally dissolves either the amount of effort expended by one side, or how far they have come. When Obama sought to work across the aisle, they refused to work with him. They knew they could lie about their resistance. There are deliberate evils at work in the world. They are almost always a function of some will to power.

I agree that Hillary had a will to power. I don't know if I buy all of my various friends assessments of her. But, based upon how hated she was by an immovable base of people on the right, and how gullible those who aren't always aligned with the right are, but have proven themselves incapable of arriving at an assessment independent of receiving drivel, I thought she should have bowed out. She could not have won, no matter what. Trump's rise to power proved that you could put anybody against her, and she would lose.

Now there is this Joe Biden sexual assault allegation. I was reading an article today by somebody who said they thought it was a load of crap. They gave several reasons. Then I read the comments. Within the first few there were several immoral perverts, er, republican shills who couldn't resist pointing out how Kavanaugh was treated. And how Biden should get the same. Well, only if they want to go back on what Kavanaugh did get, which was to become approved. They want Biden to go through it, and see if he will fail in some way. They want to test the left for no good reason at all, except that they are the other side of an opinion.

What the country really needs to do is wake up concerning how led around they are. Honestly, it's like a bull being led by a nose ring. They let their valuable only to them single issue points of view crowd out what is best for everyone. They don't care if they are wrong. I think it is quite possibly an incurable ill with America. It has a wound that cannot be healed. And attempting to do so only makes it worse.

[REAL Green]

For the record I would have voted for Tulsi. She was treated like an ugly step sister and this shows how deep in decline the DNC is. Biden has to be the worst candidate EVER! I am not going to vote this year for the first time in my life becuase the choices are just so bad. All of them BTW on both sides but what disgust me the most is the liberals who have become deranged with emotions and now will destroy the country if it means removing Trump. I can't stand the identity politics and the hijacking of the media with corporate shills the force behind the news. The corruption and criminality of the remove Trump forces in the deep state is the worst this country has ever produced. The modern liberal voters are just sheeples for these powerful forces driving them with emotions. Liberals are now regressive not progressive. I never liked science denying conservatives but that is how regressive liberals label me now if I criticize them. I am independent not a lap dog.

[evilgenius]

I think we are living in an Orwellian cycle, begun with an inclination to gain revenge for Nixon. The likes of Karl Rove had that as motivation. We can do the special prosecutor too, became a mantra. The special prosecutor was supposed to be something that was invented only for Watergate. Then each new administration was plagued by it.

For years you couldn't be an actor without everybody saying that you deserved all of the nutcases who came up to you. Then princess Diana died. But we had already crossed a line. Clinton got stung for doing what Kennedy probably did every week in the Oval Office. Gingrich was about the Republicans being pissed that they had been out of power. That whole 'contract with America' thing was another mass manipulation of the people brought about by appealing to individual causes.

We were never going back. And all of the good people who might want to run the Unites States realized it. No good person wants to give up their privacy in order to run the country. People like Trump are lining up to. When a good person does something they aren't proud of, they get embarrassed. Their very reaction gives them away as being deeper than some. People like Trump don't get embarrassed, indicating some sort of elemental self-understanding that recognizes others, they deflect. We will ignore, as well, when we won't forgive. Being PC makes a person recognize everything they do officially, but we don't live life officially. And neither do the talented people who would run the country best. We've just got the person we deserve. The same can be said of the other choices, both for Trump's office and for the legislature.

[evilgenius]

And even that may have been a continuance of sorts, derived out of our American self-impression that we really were something. After all, the Europeans had been beaten down so severely by WWII that Americans could get away with it. Without America, there would have been no winning that war. Roosevelt couldn't have been elected today. Somebody like Trump would have put his son in law in Eisenhower's place. He would have said he liked Churchill, before he said he didn't. Before he said he did. Normandy would have been met by an atomic bomb or two because it wouldn't have happened until 1950.

[Shaved Monkey]

The aftermath of this depression will be interesting as Countries still have locked borders and governments that have money starts throwing it at infrastructure to try and create jobs.
Everyone will be looking inward to try and rebuild their economies, re-establish manufacturing, local tourism,there will be a push to maintain pre-existing export markets but demand will be lower due to unemployed former customers.
China will be out of this earliest and ready to throw some money and influence around especially infrastructure in developing countries and through its Belt and Road projects.

[REAL Green]

Bad news for Boeing and Airbus but more so Airbus. They are both too big to fail but Boeing has its military side which will see less decline. Boeing was in tatters anyway from the Maxout fiasco. What is next in the airline industry? Definitely too many planes but also it is surly an economic environment of consumers who fly and play differently. We are probably seeing peak tourism which is another bad for Europe. This is more than social distancing it is about lower affluence. Less business travel too as businesses learn remote work and meetings make sense. Travel and Tourism are significantly discretionary so in hard times like what is ahead these industries will be hammered lower. In regards to emissions, this could be a bright spot from a degrowth perspective. Smart degrowth policy would embrace this change but I doubt it will be proactively embraced but instead forced on society by decline. Peak globalism means peak travel and tourism. I feel we are there.

“Brace For A Monday Massacre: Buffett Liquidates All Airline Holdings As Berkshire Sees Another Leg Lower”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brace ... re-remains

“Assuring that Monday will be a bloodbath for Trannies (that would be the transportation stocks you perverts), Buffett justified his decision as follows: "The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way,” he said. “I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period." But "I think there are certain industries, and unfortunately, I think that the airline industry, among others, that are really hurt by a forced shutdown by events that are far beyond our control." "When we bought [airlines], we were getting an attractive amount for our money when investing across the airlines,” he said. “It turned out I was wrong about that business because of something that was not in any way the fault of four excellent CEOs. Believe me. No joy of being a CEO of an airline." "“I don’t know that 3-4 years from now people will fly as many passenger miles as they did last year .... you’ve got too many planes." Realizing that he won't be alive by the time a turnaround eventually happens, he clarified that he made the decision and that he lost money on his investments. “That was my mistake.” “The airline business -- and I may be wrong and I hope I’m wrong -- but I think it’s changed in a very major way,” Buffett said. “The future is much less clear to me.”

[C8]

Congress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

[gollum]

Congress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

They might try but unless they're willing to actually take ownership and massively subsidize them they'll never be able to even come close to breaking even. It would have to be dammed near free to fly before a lot of people will get on an airliner again. Maybe, just maybe, they could refocus primarily on moving cargo and carry passengers as a sideline and survive.

[REAL Green]

Congress will bail out the airlines in the name of national security (I really wish there was a special sarcasm font for those last two words)

They might try but unless they're willing to actually take ownership and massively subsidize them they'll never be able to even come close to breaking even. It would have to be dammed near free to fly before a lot of people will get on an airliner again. Maybe, just maybe, they could refocus primarily on moving cargo and carry passengers as a sideline and survive.

I bet Buffet had actionable intelligence the Government is not going to bail airlines out in a way an investor like Buffet would profit from so he bailed out. If the pickings looked good, he may have bought in more. So, it is likely a consolidation that is a bailout of sorts will happen. Maybe we see several name brand airlines disappear. Let’s face it, the US gets around by car and plane so airlines will have to be maintained to some extent. It is obvious there is huge overcapacity at all levels in the airline sector so there will be blood.

[rockdoc123]

I bet Buffet had actionable intelligence the Government is not going to bail airlines out in a way an investor like Buffet would profit from so he bailed out

well no. What he did was realize the sector was going to be dead for awhile and there was other places he might be able to put his money. It will probably take the airlines a year to come back from this, much longer than everyone else just because you have the double whammy of people afraid to travel and the fact many who were unemployed for months can't afford to travel. If you pay attention to what he does it is all about never letting his investments languish....he is a very active investor, buying sectors that he thinks have been unfairly devalued where he can make a gain and selling those where he thinks the investment will be dead money for sometime.
The airline industry has already undergone significant consolidation so what is left might be better managed but merging or takeovers will not be very beneficial to anyone.

[REAL Green]

I bet Buffet had actionable intelligence the Government is not going to bail airlines out in a way an investor like Buffet would profit from so he bailed out

well no. What he did was realize the sector was going to be dead for awhile and there was other places he might be able to put his money.

Don't be naive, a man like Buffet and his team are well connected. People like Buffet and his team often are the ones driving policy through their lobbying effort. I agree some of his decision is a no brainer of an industries situation and good investing. Some of it is knowing what policies are ahead and how that will affect returns. Theoretically if the fed and gov are leaning to support airlines it may have been in Buffets favor to risk buying an airline that looks to be a chosen one to survive by active government support. We are in a new world of MMT post Covid. I doubt we can even normalize to pre Covid days which were already suffering bad Moral Hazards of central bank intervention where the rich and connected are first in line to the money bags. In any case us peons don't know what is in the fed, gov, and Buffets heads we just have our sowing circles of debate.

[Newfie]

Dumping airlines is a no brainer.
Same with cruise ships, maybe more so.

Some things are just obvious.

It’s a small market but I think there will be a glut of catamarans on the market to cheap. There are various charter companies who sell an investor a yacht and agree to put in charter for some years. The owner gets a few weeks on the boat and in the meantime the charter fees pay the mortgage, dockage and maintenance.

Now those owners have a mortgage, dock fees, maintenance fees, insurance, and no off setting charter income for who knows how long. If the islands can get their stuff together to allow unfettered flights before the next season it won’t be too bad. But if they can’t, then a lot of owners will need to get out.

There will be a lot of pressure to resume flights, but then there is a lot of pressure to stop the virus. Interesting times.

[Tanada]

They might try but unless they're willing to actually take ownership and massively subsidize them they'll never be able to even come close to breaking even. It would have to be dammed near free to fly before a lot of people will get on an airliner again. Maybe, just maybe, they could refocus primarily on moving cargo and carry passengers as a sideline and survive.

Air cargo is the absolutely worst way to ship goods from place to place unless time is the major factor being looked at. A great many silly things have entered the air cargo market under the "just in time" shipping systems that grew up over the last two decades.

But from a cash on the barrel head no free subsidies point of view shipping a cargo container stuffed with lightweight boxes of sneakers or other footwear by air so they arrive in a day or less instead of three weeks on a slow efficient cargo ship comes with a simply huge energy cost.

Organs being shipped for transplant or some of the more delicate luxury foods like caviar on ice might be a profitable air cargo, or a company like UPS/FedEx who promise fast delivery of packages might be able to pay the freight costs. But shipping any bulk cargo like a container of grain or a container of scrap iron is a non-starter at face value.

[vtsnowedin]

Dumping airlines is a no brainer.
Same with cruise ships, maybe more so.

Some things are just obvious.

It’s a small market but I think there will be a glut of catamarans on the market to cheap. There are various charter companies who sell an investor a yacht and agree to put in charter for some years. The owner gets a few weeks on the boat and in the meantime the charter fees pay the mortgage, dockage and maintenance.

Now those owners have a mortgage, dock fees, maintenance fees, insurance, and no off setting charter income for who knows how long. If the islands can get their stuff together to allow unfettered flights before the next season it won’t be too bad. But if they can’t, then a lot of owners will need to get out.

There will be a lot of pressure to resume flights, but then there is a lot of pressure to stop the virus. Interesting times.

I have a hard time finding sympathy for people invested in a yacht. They'll get by. For over seas transport it occurs to me that cruise ships /ocean liners could be modified to provide social distancing a lot easier then a jet liner and might become the preferred way to travel. New York to London might cost you $1000 on a ship that used to carry 3000 passengers and now holds 1000 with a lot of the crew being robots but if it is a lot safer then 300 mask wearing people crammed into a jet liner for four hours it might catch on.
Shuffle board anyone?