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The Death of Cities

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby Pops » Sat 18 Nov 2023, 10:18:54

noobtube wrote:I hope people understand the United States is nothing but a collection of city-states.

There is no "rural" or "small town" America.


This is pretty much it. I've lived in small towns and out in the country all my life and there is increasingly less here. Farms are consolidating, nothing is made here, retail consists of walmart, dollar general maybe a parts store. No one lives here that can afford a city house, lots of old people on pensions. Nice new hospital about 20 miles away was a shock—less shocking is the OB/Delivery ward closed almost right away since no OB doctor wants to work in Missouri for fear of jail. So much for protecting babies.

One big thing seldom mentioned is that nice cars and paved roads have been the killer of small towns. As roads and cars improved, even people who wanted to live in a small town began commuting to the city. But then they also they also shopped there, went to city doctors, city restaurants etc. Eventually nothing is left in the little burg except a Quick-Sac, if that.

We drive around some. The only small towns still viable that we see are at least an hour away from a big town. As cars are nicer and eventually self-driving even those places will lose the battle. Maybe once upon a time cities depended on small towns to support farmers and bring the crop to market. But FedEx, big rigs and paved roads now make it the other way 'round.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 18 Nov 2023, 13:42:17

Pops wrote:Did you see that!
The cops just let them all go!
just a tour group


Are you talking about the UM "Protest" in Ann Arbor, Michigan? 200 students and agitators broke into the locked admin building and occupied it for six hours, state police chased out the ones who left willingly and then issued trespassing tickets to the rest before releasing them outside the building?

I believe in a former age the University would expel students who did such a thing, especially when there is a LONG waiting list of applicants who want to get in and qualify. In todays world 10 percent got a misdemeanor citations and 90 percent didn't even get their name put on an ID list of troubled students who are confused how the real world works.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby Pops » Sat 18 Nov 2023, 14:33:01

Tanada wrote:Are you talking about the UM "Protest" in Ann Arbor, Michigan?

Naw, just being snide as usual. LOL
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 20 Nov 2023, 08:39:27

A lot of the metals in the picture below go into cities, or create product used in the cities. Probably more than half of it ends up in the service of the world's cities.

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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby nocar » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 07:36:03

All that iron, and other metals. I want to know where is goes.

How much is to cars and trucks? How much is for highways? (I believe there is lots of iron for reinforcement i highway bridges)

How much is for building public transport?

How much for agriculture equipment?
How much is for bicycles?

How much is for building? Single family housing, apartments, schools, retail, industries?
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 12:36:50

nocar wrote:All that iron, and other metals. I want to know where is goes.

How much is to cars and trucks? How much is for highways? (I believe there is lots of iron for reinforcement i highway bridges)

How much is for building public transport?

How much for agriculture equipment?
How much is for bicycles?

How much is for building? Single family housing, apartments, schools, retail, industries?
Almost all iron goes into making steel. Here's where the steel goes:

The Major Applications of Steel
Steel applications can be divided into seven primary market sectors. The figures are the percentages of steel production dedicated to them, according to the World Steel Association (WSA):

Buildings and infrastructure, 51%
Mechanical equipment, 15%
Automotive, 12%
Metal products, 11%
Other transport, 5%
Domestic appliances, 3%
Electrical equipment, 3%

Buildings and Infrastructure
More than half of the steel produced annually is used to construct buildings and infrastructure such as bridges. Most of the steel used in this sector is found in reinforcing bars (44%); sheet products, including those used in roofs, internal walls, and ceilings (31%); and structural sections (25%). In addition to those structural applications, steel is also used in buildings for HVAC systems and in items such as stairs, rails, and shelving.

Besides bridges, applications for steel in transportation-related infrastructure include tunnels, rail track, fueling stations, train stations, ports, and airports. Steel is also widely used in utility infrastructure, including for fuels, water, and, electricity. The WSA states that half of the steel used for utility infrastructure is in the form of underground pipes for water or natural gas.

Mechanical Equipment
This second-greatest use of steel includes (among many other things) bulldozers, tractors, machinery that makes car parts, cranes, and hand tools such as hammers and shovels. It also includes the rolling mills that are used to shape steel into various shapes and thicknesses.

Automotive
On average, almost 2,000 pounds, or 900 kilograms, of steel is used to make a car. About a third of that is used in the body structure and exterior, including the doors. Another 23% is in the drive train, and 12% is in the suspension.

Metal Products
This market sector includes various consumer products such as furniture, packaging for food and drinks, and razors. Foods packaged in steel cans don't need to be refrigerated.

Other Transport
Steel is used in ships, trains and train cars, and parts of planes. Hulls of large ships are almost all made of steel, and steel ships carry 90% of global cargo. almost all of the world's approximately 17 million shipping containers are made of steel. Besides the cars, steel shows up in trains in the wheels, axels, bearings, and motors. In airplanes, steel is crucial for engines and landing gear.

Domestic Appliances
Clothes washers and dryers, ranges, microwave ovens, dishwashers, and refrigerators all contain steel in varying amounts, including the motors, when applicable. According to the American Iron and Steel Association, a front-loading washer generally contains 84.2 pounds of steel, while a top-bottom refrigerator-freezer contains 79 pounds.

Electrical Equipment
The last major steel market sector involves applications in the production and distribution of electricity. That means transformers, which have a magnetic steel core; generators; electric motors; pylons; and steel-reinforced cables.
The Major Applications of Steel
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby Pops » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 12:53:23

Simple fact is there were less homeless when America was great because we warehoused our mentally ill and addicted people in "state hospitals" and prisons. from the 70's-90's this ended as the government-funded hospitals were closed because taxes.

Also the laws surrounding involuntary commitment changed as well — that was a good thing.

For-profit boarding homes (and prisons) sprang up to contain these people. Like any for profit "institution" these places were no better than the state could do and in many cases much worse as their motive was profit not improvement. Today these places can cost tens of thousands per month (because capitalism) so obviously poor people are forced out if they could ever find a bed in the first place. But "deinstitutionalization" made a few people lots of money and made a few other people feel good about kicking out the moochers.

Like all other medicine, capitalism has taken over. We spend more on medicine yet receive worse care than other rich countries. We are 50th behind other rich and not so rich countries in infant mortality. We spend huge percentage of GDP on medicine but because medicine is for-profit, government money just causes the bill to rise that much more.


The other part of homelessness is lack of homes for those willing and able to work but low-skilled, low-paid. Zoning and NIMBYism prevents construction of low-income, high density housing making any home unaffordable in cities... where the jobs are.
To rent the average 1bdrm apt in San Fran you need to earn about $125k/yr. Not exactly dishwasher wages. In fact as more and more money is hovered up by the top rung of society, there is simply less to go around—why else would the stock market again be so overvalued, not to mention all the off-book transactions.

Image


The US populace and government spends more than most countries on for profit medicine and for profit militarism—ye olde Military-Industrial complex is only rivaled by the Medical-Industrial complex. But surprisingly, or not if you follow politics, we are dead last among OECD countries in what is termed "social protection." Think, police, fire and courts. But also measures to help people with a litany of ill fates that befall citizens. Our programs range from OSHA to disability to unemployment to mental heath services: WIC, TANIF, SNAP, and of course especially SSI.

If one shakes their head and scoffs at those programs and votes for the political party that makes those services the butt of jokes and fund-raising emails, there is only one direction to point.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 16:50:43

nocar wrote:All that iron, and other metals. I want to know where is goes.

How much is to cars and trucks? How much is for highways? (I believe there is lots of iron for reinforcement i highway bridges)


One problem is that as time passes the mines produce less and then play-out. New mines are founded but usually at greater cost of extraction because the ore grades are lower, the high hanging fruit. All this results in greater consumption of fossil fuels, and metals, to extract said metals.

20 years ago when most of our electricity came from coal or nuclear power stations very little metal was involved in generation, though there was mass extraction of fuels, the metal use was in long lasting machines, mining machines, railways etc. Now we have millions of tonnes of steel going into wind generator towers, just as much into the concrete foundations of them too. Then all the extra copper going into the individual generators themselves. Then there is the solar side, how much steel goes into the vast supports for the arrays of PV and solar thermal plants out in the fields? How much aluminium goes into the panel frames and the rails that support them? I would guesstimate that there is 3x as much aluminium in my home solar system than in all the sliding windows and doors combined.

This is my major gripe with these re-buildable systems, they cost a fortune in energy and metals as well as the transport and installation, government oversight, paperwork. And in 15 or 20 years it all has to be repeated when they wear out. And the solar panels themselves are not recyclable, the frames sure, but at a cost, and then the glass and substrate goes into stockpiles and the landfill. Same with wind to a degree. They are very complex machines and a lot of the running gear, like the huge fiberglass blades, becomes landfill. It's not a solution to the depletion of F-Fuels, it's an added ongoing consumption of them.

These power sources have their place, but unfortunately capitalism has forced them into every corner of the planet with no regard for practical efficiencies or long-term viability.

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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 18:08:37

More cities are made, especially near port areas, so that more can earn from service industries and manufacturing. Meanwhile, agriculture is mechanized to increase food production.

To ensure all that, just-in-time processes and economic order quantities are needed, especially to ship many goods across long distances, and frequently in order to keep inventory costs low.
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Re: The Death of Cities

Unread postby Pops » Tue 21 Nov 2023, 18:50:29

Regarding the rebuildability of PV, the panels will last many many years. Old panels hit the pit now mainly because cheaper / more efficient ones are on the market regularly. Panels are warranted for 25 years at 80% output - it seems likely they'll still be making power in fifty, if only at 75%. Don't know how this works, could be they have a cliff, could be they hit a plateau.

In any event, I'll bet that in 2073, if nukes don't resurge and fission and di-lithium crystal power (or whatever the Energy Fairy may pull out of her bum) are still 10 years away, people will be clamoring over 50 year old panels.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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