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The coming Civil War

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Pops » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 12:42:30

Justification for white boy's gun fetish.

Image

Or maybe they've been afraid since this:
Image
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 14:07:22

I mentioned the economics of bringing up the poor. In order to do so profitably, it requires some use of economies of scale. You have to incorporate many different people under one umbrella. So there is a lot of resistance to answers that don't kowtow to accepted ways of thinking. And this issue is centered around two ways of thinking. The US has two political parties, which pretty much make up the status quo.

As we battle the perceived assault upon freedom, we lose our ability to blend into the group. We have to accept blending into the group in order to receive benefits. The system in the US maintains a concept that people must admit some sort of guilt, tantamount to original sin, I guess, before they can get any benefits from the government. The system has harsh cutoff that will cast you out of it, if you no longer qualify. People get around those by lying. They are actually set too low. Then, if they do get benefits, those people become relegated to a lower class of person. It's damned if you do and damned if you don't. This is beginning to show up in the talk about the amount of money that will be available to this or that citizen, related to coronavirus relief. Rich people are about to get offered more.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 15:08:01

Tanada wrote:
The Irish Civil War went on a very long time and consisted almost entirely of small armed groups attacking other groups mostly in ambush style attacks. The Afghan groups opposing authority are all small groups of armed individuals. This is not 1861 where armies form neat ranks lined up on a flat field and blaze away at one another hoping to be the last man standing.

The Irish civil war only lasted ten months.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Civil_War
The Irish Civil War (Irish: Cogadh Cathartha na hÉireann; 28 June 1922 – 24 May 1923)[5] was a conflict that followed the Irish War of Independence and accompanied the establishment of the Irish Free State, an entity independent from the United Kingdom but within the British Empire.

The civil war was waged between two opposing groups, the pro-treaty Provisional Government and the anti-treaty IRA, over the Anglo-Irish Treaty. The forces of the Provisional Government (which became the Free State in December 1922) supported the Treaty, while the anti-treaty opposition saw it as a betrayal of the Irish Republic (which had been proclaimed during the Easter Rising). Many of those who fought on both sides in the conflict had been members of the Irish Republican Army (Old IRA) during the War of Independence.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 16:44:52

Local news here has Guys from New York coming to southern Vermont and cleaning out stores of goods they can take back to New York. Spent thousands filling a van and two SUVs. Locals upset and if that goes undisturbed by officials may well lead to gun fire.
No country is more then three meals from a revolution.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 17:56:16

vtsnowedin wrote:Local news here has Guys from New York coming to southern Vermont and cleaning out stores of goods they can take back to New York. Spent thousands filling a van and two SUVs. Locals upset and if that goes undisturbed by officials may well lead to gun fire.
No country is more then three meals from a revolution.


That's a good scenario though. Local's defending their grocery stores from outside hoarders.

Yes, we do have to be starving before the locals will come out with their guns in force.

However, I think marshal law will be declared before then and the police are getting better armed all the time.

So, is that why people are collecting oversized SUV's and ammo? Mad Max at Main Street.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 20 Mar 2020, 18:44:51

Once the locals become aware of what they are up to they will have a hard time getting back to New York with four slashed or shot tires. No need to harm them physically.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 06:05:18

Tanada wrote:
The Irish Civil War went on a very long time and consisted almost entirely of small armed groups attacking other groups mostly in ambush style attacks. The Afghan groups opposing authority are all small groups of armed individuals. This is not 1861 where armies form neat ranks lined up on a flat field and blaze away at one another hoping to be the last man standing.


In this case, we're looking at a week's worth of food, fuel, medicine, and more for each town and city due to economic order quantities coupled with JIT systems that need to operate 24/7, part of extensive supply chains that cross multiple nations and thousands of km.

Given combinations of crises (peak oil, the effects of global warming, increasing debt, epidemics and pandemics, etc.), it's likely that before "ambush[-]style attacks" and opposing authority take place neighbors will attack each other, engage in looting, etc., especially given poor health, lack of preparations and skills to survive, narcissism and decades of self-entitlement, vices, etc.

Meanwhile, police and military units will secure depots for their own use, and in the long run, will break up and start attacking each other, too.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Cog » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 07:21:24

The USA won't resort to outright civil war as long as food and internet is available. There will likely be looting and violence but only if the EBT system breaks down. That system will never be allowed to break down, by the way. In the inner cities, the residents are probably figuring out that while their card works, there isn't anything to buy that doesn't require cooking it from scratch.

But we will see what happens here. Violence is always an option if people feel desperate. In the US, we are going to suffer a huge economic hit. But with the lockdowns in place now with outbreak states, and those to come from other states, we should manage. You can't look at Italy as a perfect example of how the USA will unfold. Italy's population is 2nd oldest in the world. Lot of smokers, close social contact, and high population density.

Population density will make a lot of difference between our results and the rest of the world.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 11:25:42

vtsnowedin wrote:Once the locals become aware of what they are up to they will have a hard time getting back to New York with four slashed or shot tires. No need to harm them physically.


I see a surge in demand for run-flat tires and bullet-proof windshields.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 21 Mar 2020, 12:08:29

jedrider wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Once the locals become aware of what they are up to they will have a hard time getting back to New York with four slashed or shot tires. No need to harm them physically.


I see a surge in demand for run-flat tires and bullet-proof windshields.

Rich man's toys. We red necks will make do with what we have in hand.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 01 Apr 2020, 04:26:22

evilgenius wrote:I mentioned the economics of bringing up the poor. In order to do so profitably, it requires some use of economies of scale. You have to incorporate many different people under one umbrella. So there is a lot of resistance to answers that don't kowtow to accepted ways of thinking. And this issue is centered around two ways of thinking. The US has two political parties, which pretty much make up the status quo.

As we battle the perceived assault upon freedom, we lose our ability to blend into the group. We have to accept blending into the group in order to receive benefits. The system in the US maintains a concept that people must admit some sort of guilt, tantamount to original sin, I guess, before they can get any benefits from the government. The system has harsh cutoff that will cast you out of it, if you no longer qualify. People get around those by lying. They are actually set too low. Then, if they do get benefits, those people become relegated to a lower class of person. It's damned if you do and damned if you don't. This is beginning to show up in the talk about the amount of money that will be available to this or that citizen, related to coronavirus relief. Rich people are about to get offered more.

What are you talking about?

Money doesn't grow on trees, so there are income limits re benefits. You might not LIKE the limits and the rules, but they're an attempt at sanity in an imperfect system.

Given that there are strict income limits, and "the rich" get zero (which is as it should be, IMO), how are the rich people being offered more?

Are you talking about bailouts of businesses? That's a mess, but a different mess than giving individuals benefits, to ensure people can get food, medicine, etc. even if they lost their job. The main problem I have with the system is that even in "frantic haste" it takes the government over a month to actually work out the rules and get any money to the people who most need it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 06:36:14

Philadelphia

Last week, Philadelphia’s police department reported that criminal activity in the first three months of this year increased by double-digit percentages when compared with the same period in 2019—the most violent year since 2007. So far in 2020, property and violent crimes have spiked by 16 percent and 11 percent, respectively, with the largest increases in retail theft—which skyrocketed 59 percent, after district attorney Larry Krasner announced that his office wouldn’t prosecute that crime—and other serious violent offenses, such as aggravated assault, up by 20 percent.


https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-p ... rime-spike
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 07:00:10

Philly is a mess.

Take a read through this article. I came away with the idea the city management is disorganized and blaming one another and has no clue to effective action.

The Mayor want me to lock yo gun law violators.

The DA is trying to let folks out of prison because they are running out of supplies. Prisons are “landlocked cruise ships.”

Police have been told to not detain but take names and release. (Police Commissioner is Danielle OUTLAW)

City Dr. says they don’t have race identified on 85% of cases but black cases are rising. He says the virus does not discriminate. So he is saying someone IS discriminating?

Someone else says whole neighborhoods, e.g. Kensington, are not social distancing, citations and fines don’t work (duh , Kensington is on dope) and he wants someplace specific, that follows social distancing, where they can send Kensington.

What a mess.

https://www.phillyvoice.com/philadelphi ... ce-outlaw/

My theory on Civil Disorder is that occurs when the government fails the population.

This is a 100% Democrat government, the R’s didn’t even bother to put a name up for Sheriff election. But there were 4 or 5 D’s in the Primary.

The last R mayor of Philadelphia was elected in NINETEEN FOURTY EIGHT.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 08:26:17

A Philadelphia Inquirer virus article discussing the race issue.

The article itself is not too bad. Some of the comments are nteresting.

https://www.inquirer.com/news/philadelp ... 00403.html
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 04:42:22

I think this article points to a place where Trump needs to get out in front, and he has not. If the black community, justly or not, feels disadvantaged or discriminated against by this virus, by this administration, that is problematic. For Trump but more importantly for the country.

The story itself is not inflammatory. But you can see the seeds of inflammation within it.
.
. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/opin ... index.html
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 04:56:44

Newfie wrote:I think this article points to a place where Trump needs to get out in front, and he has not. If the black community, justly or not, feels disadvantaged or discriminated against by this virus, by this administration, that is problematic. For Trump but more importantly for the country.

The story itself is not inflammatory. But you can see the seeds of inflammation within it.
.
. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/06/opin ... index.html

Even if Trump wanted to treat the black community fairly given the logistics of where they live vs. where the hospitals are that serve them there is little that can be done in the month or two that are critical in this crisis. About all he can do is be sure to send the same amount of aid to inner city hospitals as they do to to suburban hospitals that primarily serve whites. Every failure in that regard will be picked up on and become a Democratic talking point beaten to death by the liberal media.
The fact that Democratic administrations have let inner city hospitals decline for decades will not be acknowledged.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 05:21:23

VT,
Agreed there is probably little practical he can do. What I was thinking of was to shape his message to ward off the accusations. It may not even be possible.

And lord knows Philly seems to be making a hash of it.

There is a recently closed hospital the city wanted to reopen. But they could not come to terms with the owner over money. It would seem the city would have some other means of making this happen. Or escalating the situation until it does happen.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 05:34:55

Newfie wrote:VT,
Agreed there is probably little practical he can do. What I was thinking of was to shape his message to ward off the accusations. It may not even be possible.

And lord knows Philly seems to be making a hash of it.

There is a recently closed hospital the city wanted to reopen. But they could not come to terms with the owner over money. It would seem the city would have some other means of making this happen. Or escalating the situation until it does happen.

Declare an emergency and seize it by eminent domain. Let a judge settle the money later.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby Cog » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 06:58:17

The black community is not doing social distancing and obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes is somewhat rampant within that community. Trump can not fix that.

You are seeing this in Chicago and Detroit. Blacks are dying at a rate in excess of their population.
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Re: The coming Civil War

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 07 Apr 2020, 07:20:58

Cog wrote:The black community is not doing social distancing and obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes is somewhat rampant within that community. Trump can not fix that.

You are seeing this in Chicago and Detroit. Blacks are dying at a rate in excess of their population.
And the Democrats will try to blame all of that on Trump. Even conditions that have existed for decades.
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