At a press conference today, the IAEA presented its conclusions of a set of scientific reports on the impacts of Chernobyl by several UN bodies. The report: "Chernobyl's Legacy: Health, Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts" examines the effects of the disaster as its 20th
anniversary approaches. The report is itself a digest of another, 3-volume, 600-page report by hundreds of scientists, economists and health experts.
The report highlights that the casualties' toll was limited to 50 workers and the eventual number can be expected to reach about 4,000.
Remarkably, these conclusions are not substantiated by these reports, or even contradicted by them. Often, research has been omitted and where
scientific uncertainty exists, the conclusion is simply that there is no impact. A more careful reading of the 600-page report, as well as
previous published research by UN-bodies leads to very different conclusions. A few examples:
* WHO refers to a study on 72,000 Russian workers of which 212 died as the result of radiation. The total number of 'liquidators' (in Belarus,
Russia and Ukraine) is estimated at some 600,000;
* The number of 4,000 deaths of the IAEA only relates to a studied population of 600,000, whereas radiation was spread over most of Europe.
The IAEA is omitting the impacts of Chernobyl on millions of Europeans;
* The IAEA tries to make strict distinction between health impacts attributable to radiation and other health impacts attributable to
stress, social situation etc. However, the WHO is referring to numerous reports which indicate an impact of radiation on the immune system,
causing a wide range of health effects;
The IAEA states today that previous researchers who have estimated the number of deaths in the range of 10 to hundreds of thousands have
exaggerated the impacts. This is not correct.
The WHO rightly refers to 2 different methodological approaches to assess the health impacts of radiation.
* The first one - and scientifically the most accepted approach - is based on the standards set by the International Commission on Radiation
Protection (ICRP) and which assumes that there is a lineal relationship between radiation dose and effect, without a threshold. This means that
if a very large population is subjected to a very low dose, the collective impact can still be very serious. In the case of the
Chernobyl accident, this leads to estimates in the range of 10 to hundreds of thousands of casualties.
* The other approach is based on epidemiology and tries to report the actual number of casualties and use statistical methods to estimate the
total number of casualties for a population. This approach is valuable in well controlled situations, but can become very problematic in
complex situations such as in Europe, where were it will be absolutely impossible to relate individual cases cancer e.g. in Belgium or France
to the Chernobyl fallout.
The Chernobyl explosion occurred April 26, 1986, when an out-of-control nuclear reaction blew off the roof of the steel building and spewed tons
of radioactive material into the air. It was the worst nuclear accident in history.
"It is appalling that the IAEA is whitewashing the impacts of the most serious industrial accident in human history," said Jan Vande Putte,
Greenpeace International nuclear campaigner. "Denying the real implications is not only insulting the thousands of victims - who are
told to be sick because of stress and irrational fear - but is also leads to dangerous recommendations, to relocated people in contaminated
areas."
What is the source of those comments? I sure hope it is Greenpeace, since their credibility is close to zero.
julianj wrote:What is the source of those comments? I sure hope it is Greenpeace, since their credibility is close to zero.
My view is I'd trust Greenpeace above any government or quango or uber-government source.
Hey, virtually nobody got killed in Chernobyl and it didn't have any after effects, whoo-hoo
Devil wrote:julianj wrote:What is the source of those comments? I sure hope it is Greenpeace, since their credibility is close to zero.
My view is I'd trust Greenpeace above any government or quango or uber-government source.
Hey, virtually nobody got killed in Chernobyl and it didn't have any after effects, whoo-hoo
I would never trust Greenpeace for anything, unless there was a substantiated independent and scientific corroboration. I have seen too many stupidities committed by their so-called experts in many fields. Believe it or not, a well-known spoof of mine was actually taken seriously by Greenpeace who actually seriously thanked me for having published it and they were bringing it to the attention of their international scientific committee. http://www.bnellis.com/msc/ and http://www.bnellis.com/msc/MSC_MSDS.htm
Devil wrote:I would never trust Greenpeace for anything, unless there was a substantiated independent and scientific corroboration. I have seen too many stupidities committed by their so-called experts in many fields. Believe it or not, a well-known spoof of mine was actually taken seriously by Greenpeace who actually seriously thanked me for having published it and they were bringing it to the attention of their international scientific committee. http://www.bnellis.com/msc/ and http://www.bnellis.com/msc/MSC_MSDS.htm
Devil wrote: There was no evidence to show radiation exposure in the areas around Chernobyl had had any effect on fertility, pregnancy problems, stillbirths or the overall health of children.
Um......Russian_Cowboy wrote:Devil wrote: There was no evidence to show radiation exposure in the areas around Chernobyl had had any effect on fertility, pregnancy problems, stillbirths or the overall health of children.
The main fallacy of this conclusion stems from the assumption that the effects of the Chernobyl disaster on the people living in the "high contamination" area adjacent to the plant are much higher than on the people farther away from the plant. Here is an illustration:
http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... id=4370135
However, the explosion in Chernobyl was so powerful that it sent tons of radionuclides, including plutonium, into the stratosphere and these radionuclides circled the Earth. I talked to people in the Dept.of Meteorology in Norman, OK. They with their devices registered a spike in radiation and radioactive dust on the other side of the globe in the Spring of 1986. Hence everybody on earth was affected. I doubt that those living 100 km from the plant have a much higher chance of contracting Chernobyl-related diseases that those living 1000 km away from Chernobyl.
PhilBiker wrote:Um......Russian_Cowboy wrote:Devil wrote: There was no evidence to show radiation exposure in the areas around Chernobyl had had any effect on fertility, pregnancy problems, stillbirths or the overall health of children.
The main fallacy of this conclusion stems from the assumption that the effects of the Chernobyl disaster on the people living in the "high contamination" area adjacent to the plant are much higher than on the people farther away from the plant. Here is an illustration:
http://www.economist.com/science/displa ... id=4370135
However, the explosion in Chernobyl was so powerful that it sent tons of radionuclides, including plutonium, into the stratosphere and these radionuclides circled the Earth. I talked to people in the Dept.of Meteorology in Norman, OK. They with their devices registered a spike in radiation and radioactive dust on the other side of the globe in the Spring of 1986. Hence everybody on earth was affected. I doubt that those living 100 km from the plant have a much higher chance of contracting Chernobyl-related diseases that those living 1000 km away from Chernobyl.
The open-air nuclear testing done by the US and USSR in the 50s and 60s released many thousands (probably millions, possibly billions or trillions) of times the amount of radionuclides into the atmosphere than Chernobyl. Using your logic applied to Chernobyl the whole world should have been be a wasteland in the 60s. It travelled around the world and fell out everywhere.
Look it up, quite interesting! And definitely adds perspective about one tiny conventional "dirty" explosion compared to all those massive nuclear bombs going off left and right.
In the case of Chernobyl, we are talking about TONS of uranium-235, plutonium, cesium, and other LONG-LIVING ALPHA-RAY emitting radionuclides dispersed all over the planet. If only a few atoms of this stuff get into your lungs, you are almost guaranteed to contract a sarcoma a few years down the road.
Russian_Cowboy wrote:In the case of Chernobyl, we are talking about TONS of uranium-235, plutonium, cesium, and other LONG-LIVING ALPHA-RAY emitting radionuclides dispersed all over the planet.
He must be getting his numbers from Greenpeace.kmann wrote:Russian_Cowboy wrote:In the case of Chernobyl, we are talking about TONS of uranium-235, plutonium, cesium, and other LONG-LIVING ALPHA-RAY emitting radionuclides dispersed all over the planet.
I don't think so.
ChumpusRex wrote:There was also a big difference between the two explosions - the chernobyl explosion was a low temperature steam explosion - an atomic bomb produces an extremely high temperature blast which vapourises everything in its vicinity and carries the contents high into the atmosphere. This includes the plutonium and uranium that the bomb is made of.
kmann wrote:Russian_Cowboy wrote:In the case of Chernobyl, we are talking about TONS of uranium-235, plutonium, cesium, and other LONG-LIVING ALPHA-RAY emitting radionuclides dispersed all over the planet.
I don't think so.
Soviet scientists have reported that the Chernobyl Unit 4 reactor contained about 190 metric tons of uranium dioxide fuel and fission products. Estimates of the amount of this material that escaped range from 13 to 30 percent. Because of the intense heat of the fire, much of this was lofted high into the atmosphere (there not being a complete containment building to catch it), where it spread.
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