[TITAN]

Another country (Chad) has figured out that oil can be used as a weapon: Chad says will stop oil output...

I predict this to start happening much more frequently. They've finally figured out our weakness (took 'em long enough)...

[Leanan]

They're starting to realize they've got us by the short hairs....

[Tanada]

They're starting to realize they've got us by the short hairs....

How many of the small level exporters can the majors like Iran ans Saudi Arabia effectively make up for on the world market?

If things are as tight as they appear it would still take several oil exporters working in concert to have an impact, already Nigeria is down 500,000 and the USA gulf is still down 300,000. If it were not for those two conditions the world would laugh at Chad witholding 160,000 because the only one hurt are themselves. If the USA GoM production gets back up and running and avoids hurricanes this year it would be easily able to handle the Chad threat.

[Specop_007]

Another country (Chad) has figured out that oil can be used as a weapon:

Chad says will stop oil output...

I predict this to start happening much more frequently. They've finally figured out our weakness (took 'em long enough)...

OUR weakness?
Thats almost laughable.
Chad has no other global product except oil. Sure, they cut oil and give us a pinch.
Flip side is, that means they quit selling oil and get a kick in the balls when they suddenly have no money.

Peak oil isnt a demand side only crisis, its a supply side as well. If a country stops oil production and the majority of its income is from oil they have just as many problems as the demand countries.

[Etalon]

Yeah, but then they can start selling it again later, once oil prices have risen even higher. It makes sense, so long as they can hold out.

[gary_malcolm]

It's not like Chad gets the money from the oil production anyway. The revenue is being sucked up to repay loans granted from the World Bank (probably frittered away on corruption and weapons). Chad has nothing to lose and everything to gain.

Convenient, those loans... for us that is.

G

[PrairieMule]

Another country (Chad) has figured out that oil can be used as a weapon:

Chad says will stop oil output...

I predict this to start happening much more frequently. They've finally figured out our weakness (took 'em long enough)...

OUR weakness?
Thats almost laughable.
Chad has no other global product except oil. Sure, they cut oil and give us a pinch.
Flip side is, that means they quit selling oil and get a kick in the balls when they suddenly have no money.

Unless they sell to China instead.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Chad has no other global product except oil. Sure, they cut oil and give us a pinch.
Flip side is, that means they quit selling oil and get a kick in the balls when they suddenly have no money.

They are already being kicked in the balls, someone froze their bank account which is why they relatiated by threatening to stop oil production.

[HonestPessimist]

In other words...

"You're not selling oil now because you don't like us? Well, I just take my money and my business elsewhere! I'll inform my legion of friends avoid you like a plague. Bye!"

[ozkrenske]

Hmm maybe China could step in and in return for Sole access to the Chad energy export sector pay off chads debt with some of the copious amount of US debt they already hold. Lets see:

Total external debt = 1.5 billion (3 years ago)
Annual government revenues = around 800 millon
They also have very hefty trade surplusses and they pump 250 000b/d while using 2000b/d so domestic use is unlikely to massively overtake prodution anytime soon.

China rolls up and drops 3 billion on their plate, paying their debt off and giving them more besides and they guarantee themselves a not insignificant though not massive oil supply.

Interestingly though, Taiwan has already been mucking around in Chad and has given many 100s of millions in aid. Maybe the Chad government is already in Taiwanese control.

[KevO]

$80 here we come.

Chad has threatened to stop oil production next week if it does not immediately receive several months' worth of oil revenues.

It wants the US-led consortium that runs Chad's pipeline to hand over $100m (£57m) it says it is owed by Tuesday.

The row over the country's oil wealth has been brewing for months.

Last December the Chadian government fell out with the World Bank, after it changed a law which carefully controlled how oil revenues were spent.

The World Bank, which financially backs the oil project, repeatedly asked Chad not to change the law but it went ahead anyway.

HERE

[mustang1919]

Aren't Chad and Afghanistan (at 2,000 and 4,000 bbl/day oil consumption respectively) emblems of the sustainability future? Couldn't they maintain their current living standards indefinitely by importing small amounts of biofuels?

[mustang1919]

>Where ever did you find those figures?

the real world

[Fishman]

Why yes mustang, sustainable, if this is your goal

"In 2008, Chad is ranked among the seven least-developed countries in the world with staggering under-five and maternal mortality rates (200 per 1,000 live births and 1,100 per 100,000 live births respectively). "

"Tens of thousands of people, especially children, are believed to have died in southern Somalia before famine was declared in July 2011."
in the contest for the world's worst living standards, Afghanistan has the unenviable honour of being way out in the lead.

"Afghanistan sits at the bottom of just about every social indicator, and there are few signs of it improving any time soon."

Not what I'm hoping for, but then again, QE 3 might get us there.

[mustang1919]

Thanks for the response. Sub-Saharan Africa is the future!

[Quinny]

Ironically if you look at the WWF sustainability studies, the only continent which is 'sustainable' is Africa.

[Tanada]

N'Djamena - Talks between Chad, Glencore [JSE:GLN] and a group of banks to restructure more than $1bn in debt have stalled after the African nation rejected the commodities trader’s latest proposal to delay repayment of an oil-for-cash loan, according to people familiar with the negotiations.

The negotiations reached a stalemate after five months of on-and-off talks, with both sides rejecting the other’s offers and counter offers, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the discussions are private.

Chad needs a deal - a second restructuring of its oil debt in less than two years - to avoid a looming financial crunch as it diverts more oil shipments to repay the debt. The country is in “debt distress” and the borrowings would be unsustainable without restructuring, the International Monetary Fund said in August.

The nation has kept up to date with its obligations so far, but the risk of a default is increasing, the sources said.

The talks pit the world’s largest commodities trader, with co-lenders including Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Natixis and Societe Generale, against one of the world’s poorest nations. The stalemate highlights the risk that the Glencore-led syndicate took lending the landlocked African country the equivalent of almost 15% of its GDP to be repaid via future crude oil cargoes.

Chad, with few sources of foreign exchange other than oil, is one of the most underdeveloped countries in the world, ranking 186th out of 188 in the United Nations Human Development Index.

Grace period

Glencore last month proposed a plan that would allow the country to delay full repayment to eight years from five currently and offered a grace period on the principal in 2018, together with easier payment terms in 2019, the people said. However, Chad had asked for a longer grace period and maturity and rejected the proposal.

Glencore reiterated its offer in a letter dated November 14, but the African country doesn’t plan to accept it.

Further "unfair clauses in this toxic contract" needed to be reviewed, said Guillaume Foucault, a spokesperson for Chad’s national oil company, which is part of the negotiations. Among other changes, Chad is seeking a further cut in the reduced interest rate that has been offered by Glencore and its partners, Foucault said.

Glencore declined to comment.

In the letter to Chad’s finance ministry, Glencore complained of "growing frustration of how the negotiations were conducted by your advisers". Chad hired banker Rothschild & Cie earlier this year to advise it on the restructuring. Rothschild was not immediately available to comment, said a spokesperson for the bank.

In the letter, seen by Bloomberg News, Glencore also accused Chad of a "blatant breach of agreement" by diverting crude flows away from repaying the debt.

Details of the letter were published earlier by Reuters.

Minister fired

The debt talks will be further complicated after Chadian President Idriss Deby, who criticised the oil-for-cash loans in June, fired Finance Minister Christian Diguimbaye, who was conducting the negotiations personally in Paris. The ex-minister in July said rescheduling the loans was “an absolute necessity”.

Glencore and its banks agreed in late 2015 to restructure two oil-for-cash loans with Chad, dating from 2013 and 2014, extending the repayment to seven years from an initial four years.

Glencore initially lent the African country $600m in 2013 through a so-called pre-payment export deal, in which a nation receives an advance on its oil sales and repays the debt by allocating crude cargoes to its creditors.

Chad received a second advance on oil sales of $1.4bn from Glencore in 2014 to help finance state-owned Societe des Hydrocarbures du Tchad’s acquisition of the stake held by Chevron in the country’s oil industry. Chad has already paid some of those debts, but more than $1bn remains outstanding.

According to the IMF, last year Chad devoted the majority of the proceeds of selling the oil owned by the government to repay the Glencore-led loans.

Out of $271m in oil sales revenues, debt service took $231m, leaving only $40m to the country’s treasury. The cost of servicing the debt will increase now as the grace period on the principal of the debt has expired.

LINK

[Bashar Al-Assad]

I am sad that no one has talked about Chad in the last 13 years. I think the new Chad-Cameroon pipeline is going to be a game changer and if we could stop screwing around with the AGOA, this could be a huge boon for the struggling governments of both countries.

[Subjectivist]

I am sad that no one has talked about Chad in the last 13 years. I think the new Chad-Cameroon pipeline is going to be a game changer and if we could stop screwing around with the AGOA, this could be a huge boon for the struggling governments of both countries.

How much oil are we talking about? A million barrels a day? More? Less?