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THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 11 Dec 2020, 13:22:47

Disappointing.

Had hoped Covid would at least knock those numbers down.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 11 Dec 2020, 21:24:52

Image
Newfie wrote:Disappointing.

Had hoped Covid would at least knock those numbers down.


Given that over half of emission come from electricity generation I am not at all surprised. Yes commercial flying is way down compared on a year over year basis and American commuters are driving somewhat less. But life has gone on mask or no mask. Plumbers and electricians are still out there every day working on keeping their customers happy and so is Amazon(and other internet retail) with all the commercial shipping they are involved in. Farmers still have to grow the food people drive to the store to buy and then pay the refuse company to take to the landfill. And so on and so forth.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby JuanP » Fri 11 Dec 2020, 21:37:17

Tanada wrote:
Newfie wrote:Disappointing.

Had hoped Covid would at least knock those numbers down.


Given that over half of emission come from electricity generation I am not at all surprised. Yes commercial flying is way down compared on a year over year basis and American commuters are driving somewhat less. But life has gone on mask or no mask. Plumbers and electricians are still out there every day working on keeping their customers happy and so is Amazon(and other internet retail) with all the commercial shipping they are involved in. Farmers still have to grow the food people drive to the store to buy and then pay the refuse company to take to the landfill. And so on and so forth.


Which proves how big a social disruption would be needed to reverse these trends in the short term future. This COVID thing was just an insignificant blip on the course we are set. Population is still growing, consumption is still outrageous, the planet keeps warming, the Arctic is still melting, and the biosphere continues to suffer. I expect all these problems and many others to continue for the rest of our lives.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby REAL Green » Sat 12 Dec 2020, 06:05:10

Tanada wrote:
Newfie wrote:Disappointing.

Had hoped Covid would at least knock those numbers down.


Given that over half of emission come from electricity generation I am not at all surprised.


China and India are the central problem. If they don't energy degrowth then it is a lost cause. Their interest is still in growing especially China who is interested in hegemony which means lots of growth.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby JuanP » Sat 12 Dec 2020, 22:19:14

"World carbon dioxide emissions drop 7% in pandemic hit 2020"
https://apnews.com/article/science-coro ... 23c4d47076

"A locked-down pandemic-struck world cut its carbon dioxide emissions this year by 7%, the biggest drop ever, new preliminary figures show.

The Global Carbon Project, an authoritative group of dozens of international scientists who track emissions, calculated that the world will have put 37 billion U.S. tons (34 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide in the air in 2020. That’s down from 40.1 billion US tons (36.4 billion metric tons) in 2019, according a study published Thursday in the journal Earth System Science Data."

Mostly due to less flying and driving.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 13 Dec 2020, 07:02:24

“Climate models overestimate natural variability”
https://phys.org/news/2020-12-climate-o ... ility.html

“By looking at satellite measurements of temperature changes in the lower layer of Earth's atmosphere, scientists found that climate models may have overestimated the decade-to-decade natural variability of temperature…The team found that in current and earlier generations of climate models, the natural decade-to-decade variability of tropospheric temperature is systematically too large relative to estimates of natural variability obtained from satellites. Such an overestimate of natural "climate noise" would make it more difficult to identify a human-caused tropospheric warming signal. The research appears in the Journal of Climate. "Our findings enhance confidence in previous claims of detectable human-caused warming of the troposphere and imply that these claims may be conservative," Pallota said. Improved knowledge of this tropospheric warming signal, and a better understanding of uncertainties in satellite temperature observations, have helped to advance detection and attribution studies, which assist in unraveling the causes of recent climate change.”
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Dec 2020, 11:32:36

This 5 minute video should explain why I say we must adapt to a higher global temperature instead of pretending mitigation is still an option. Please view the whole thing before commenting on its content.

https://youtu.be/9-LUPho8Vf4
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Dec 2020, 11:34:35


Week beginning on December 6, 2020: 413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 411.28 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 389.82 ppm


December 15: 413.49 ppm
December 14: 413.35 ppm
December 13: 413.54 ppm
December 12: 413.66 ppm
December 11: 413.62 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Azothius » Wed 16 Dec 2020, 13:15:44

Tanada wrote:
Week beginning on December 6, 2020: 413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 411.28 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 389.82 ppm



Please remind me, what did it peak at last spring? It peaks in early May?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 16 Dec 2020, 19:06:26

Azothius wrote:
Please remind me, what did it peak at last spring? It peaks in early May?



May 2020: 417.07 ppm
May 2019: 414.65 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 17 Dec 2020, 08:10:01

Newfie wrote:Disappointing.

Had hoped Covid would at least knock those numbers down.


I looked this up just for you Newfie. Graphs that go with the text at link below the quote.
Roy W. Spencer wrote:Why the Current Economic Slowdown Won’t Show Up in the Atmospheric CO2 Record
Summary: Atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) continue to increase with no sign of the global economic slowdown in response to the spread of COVID-19. This is because the estimated reductions in CO2 emissions (around -11% globally during 2020) is too small a reduction to be noticed against a background of large natural variability. The reduction in economic activity would have to be 4 times larger than 11% to halt the rise in atmospheric CO2.

Changes in the atmospheric reservoir of CO2 occur when there is an imbalance between surface sources and sinks of CO2. While the global land and ocean areas emit approximately 30 times as much CO2 into the atmosphere as humans produce from burning of fossil fuels, they also absorb about an equal amount of CO2. This is the global carbon cycle, driven mostly by biological activity.

There are variations in the natural carbon cycle, such as during El Nino (more CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere) and La Nina (more CO2 removed from the atmosphere). Greater wildfire activity releases more CO2, while major volcanic eruptions (paradoxically) lead to greater photosynthesis from more diffuse sunlight and extra removal of CO2 from the air. The most dramatic variations are seasonal, as the land-dominated Northern Hemisphere experiences an annual cycle of vegetation growth (CO2 removal) and decay (CO2 release).

The increase in atmospheric CO2 observed since the 1950s is most likely dominated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which are twice as large as that needed to explain the observed rise. As I have shown before, a simple CO2 budget model driven by (1) estimates of global yearly anthropogenic CO2 emissions, (2) El Nino and La Nina activity, and (3) a CO2 removal rate that is proportional to how much “extra” CO2 is in the atmosphere compared to a “preferred baseline” CO2 level, yields an excellent fit to yearly CO2 observations at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

But those are yearly measurements, and we are now interested in whether the recent global economic slowdown is showing up in the monthly Mauna Loa CO2 data. If we remove the large seasonal variations (driven by the seasonal growth and decay of Northern Hemisphere vegetation), we see no evidence of the economic slowdown through April, 2020.

There are some pretty large month-to-month jumps and dips around the long-term increase (represented by the dotted line). These are probably natural variations due to fluctuations in the average seasonal variations in vegetation growth and decay, wildfire activity, and El Nino and La Nina activity (which are imperfectly removed in the solid blue line in Fig. 2). Variations in economic activity might also be involved in these fluctuations.

The point is that given the large month-to-month variations in natural CO2 sources and sinks seen in Fig. 2, it would be difficult to see a downturn in the anthropogenic source of CO2 unless it was very large (say, over 50%) and prolonged (say over a year or longer).

Instead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the global economic slowdown this year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus will amount to only about an 11% reduction in global CO2 emissions. This is simply too small of a decrease in CO2 emissions to show up against a background of considerable monthly and yearly natural variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget.

That relatively small 11% reduction also illustrates how dependent humanity is on energy, since the economic disruption is leading to U.S. unemployment rates not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Everything that humans do requires access to abundant and affordable energy, and even the current economic downturn is not enough to substantially reduce global CO2 emissions.

ADDENDUM: How much of a decrease in CO2 emissions would be required to stop the atmospheric rise in CO2?

An interesting aspect of the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 is that it indicates the greater the CO2 concentration, the faster the “extra” CO2 is removed by biological activity. The observed annual rate of removal is 2.3% of the excess above a baseline of 295 ppm. The greater the “excess”, the faster the rate of removal.

Because of this rapid rate of removal, the anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not have to go to zero to stop the observed rise in atmospheric CO2. Using my simple model (blue line in Fig. 1, above), I find that a 43% reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2020 would — in the absence of natural fluctuations in the carbon cycle — lead to a halt in the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 in 2020 over 2019 levels. This is about 4 times larger than the EIA estimate of an 11% reduction in CO2 emissions for the year 2020.

LINK
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 26 Dec 2020, 23:11:15

Tanada wrote:Image

Given that over half of emission come from electricity generation I am not at all surprised. Yes commercial flying is way down compared on a year over year basis and American commuters are driving somewhat less. But life has gone on mask or no mask. Plumbers and electricians are still out there every day working on keeping their customers happy and so is Amazon(and other internet retail) with all the commercial shipping they are involved in. Farmers still have to grow the food people drive to the store to buy and then pay the refuse company to take to the landfill. And so on and so forth.


Does this mean we can expect december to already beat July 2020 numbers?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby REAL Green » Sun 27 Dec 2020, 08:10:12

Tanada wrote: Instead, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the global economic slowdown this year due to the spread of the novel coronavirus will amount to only about an 11% reduction in global CO2 emissions. This is simply too small of a decrease in CO2 emissions to show up against a background of considerable monthly and yearly natural variability in the atmospheric CO2 budget. That relatively small 11% reduction also illustrates how dependent humanity is on energy, since the economic disruption is leading to U.S. unemployment rates not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Everything that humans do requires access to abundant and affordable energy, and even the current economic downturn is not enough to substantially reduce global CO2 emissions. ADDENDUM: How much of a decrease in CO2 emissions would be required to stop the atmospheric rise in CO2? An interesting aspect of the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 is that it indicates the greater the CO2 concentration, the faster the “extra” CO2 is removed by biological activity. The observed annual rate of removal is 2.3% of the excess above a baseline of 295 ppm. The greater the “excess”, the faster the rate of removal. Because of this rapid rate of removal, the anthropogenic CO2 emissions do not have to go to zero to stop the observed rise in atmospheric CO2. Using my simple model (blue line in Fig. 1, above), I find that a 43% reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 2020 would — in the absence of natural fluctuations in the carbon cycle — lead to a halt in the observed rise of atmospheric CO2 in 2020 over 2019 levels. This is about 4 times larger than the EIA estimate of an 11% reduction in CO2 emissions for the year 2020. [/b]
LINK[/quote]

I have been following this CO2 thing since college in 85. I studied finance but my electives were science and philosophy. Back then the C02 problem was considered futuristic. Over the past 20 years my opinion has been shaped by economics and science. Too often science and economics is divorced on both sides from each other. When you bring the two together honestly it is much easier to reality test both systems.

When I look at the problem both with science and economics the solutions proposed these days don’t add up. I read somewhere that all human activity would have to end except agriculture for meaningful reductions in carbon but that may even be unrealistic mainly because now we are seeing natural carbon increases from feedbacks from 200 years of human forcing. These feedbacks will likely make any human C02 effort mute. If you consider what needs to be done with carbon emissions related to human activity and apply an economic analysis then you see there won’t be an economy as we know it with what is needed to make an impact. Forget all this fancy technology without an economy because the emission reduction effort is mainly techno not behavioral. Behavior does not sell!

The solutions science is proposing like a net-zero-30 are not plausible if you use honest science and realistic economics. The build out of all these new appliances for solar and wind capture is huge. The support networks needed are as large. The resources needed that will be mined and transported have a massive emissions footprint. The ugliness of it all is rarely acknowledged. The cost of all this does not add up especially considering lower EROI of a holistic renewable system considering long and short-term storage and the resulting backup needed. These other costs are almost never advertised when solar and wind costs are talked about as lowest. They may be lowest cost additions these days but not with a full picture. Fossil fuels real contribution to solar and wind is rarely acknowledged.

Then there is the whole plausibility of a renewable world replicating a renewable world without fossil fuels. This does not add up in my mind. So once this massive buildout is completed then all these appliances will need a new round of building and retiring all that waste stream. We have not even considered the rest of the world has not even started their renewable revolution. So, the current so-called revolution is only half baked. Net-zero-30 is a rich world slogan not a whole world slogan. Considerable emissions are still coming post rich world net-zero-30 (if that happens). It is true the rich emit so much more but look at how big the poor population is and their impact on the natural systems that influence carbon like trees and water resources. These are part of the carbon system too.

The economics of all this is dubious. I have invested in my own life a considerable amount in low emission technology with low return. I have even made an attempt to alter behavior dramatically because I feel behavior is the key variable. Behavior is not even on the radar screen because you can’t sell it. Technology you can sell. I am considering an EV in a year or two and these don’t add up to me. I consider them an advantage in many ways but not a cost benefit one as-is. I like the higher efficiency of electric but then the battery cost is the issue. Emissions are not much lower until the grid is greener. I have seen some articles where battery cost are coming down but not dramatically to ensure a seamless transition that is a revolution. A revolution is what is needed but instead I see a comedy/tragedy. I do permaculture farming which is needed to lower emissions too. This does not add up with what is needed to lower emissions and keep a modern economy going on the food energy side.

So, if some of you techno optimist get disgusted with me that is my honest response to all this explorations I am doing. Keep in mind I have a past business background and a lifelong scientific passion combine in the pursuit of a way of life I live which is green prepping. I have come to the conclusion human civilization is in an end game process both with socio-economic issue and scientific realities of decline of a habitable and growth based human world. The really cruel reality is we are in a box unable to go forwards or backwards with the comfortable modern way of life some of us live. Only 1 billion of us really live well. For the others it is a struggle already. Yes, population reductions are a must but then you are also impacting growth.

This is why I am a doomer but an optimist one. Many of us can embrace more resilience and sustainability to adapt better to this decline but pain is ahead regardless. Techno optimism is a joke really but it does offer hope even if it is likely false hope.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Jan 2021, 11:37:53


Week beginning on December 27, 2020: 415.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 412.80 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 390.00 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 03 Jan 2021, 11:38:55


January 02: 415.14 ppm
January 01: 415.54 ppm
December 31: 415.15 ppm
December 30: 415.23 ppm
December 29: 414.63 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 06 Jan 2021, 17:13:28


January 05: 414.94 ppm
January 04: 415.34 ppm
January 03: 415.46 ppm
January 02: 415.14 ppm
January 01: 415.54 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 06 Jan 2021, 18:03:58

RealGreen,

At least some of us understand your position.

That we collapse the system is inevitable. How its collapses we have some control over, if we decide to effect it. But none of this is being discussed on a national basis. :cry:
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby REAL Green » Thu 07 Jan 2021, 03:44:47

Newfie wrote:RealGreen, At least some of us understand your position. That we collapse the system is inevitable. How its collapses we have some control over, if we decide to effect it. But none of this is being discussed on a national basis. :cry:


Here is a word salad for you Newf. Not preaching just musing.

My position is less "we" then "it". This is a process and this time around. It is global plus involves the entire planet and web of life. This fact makes it "complete" and non-negotiable. The non-negotiable is in regards to the attitude by exceptional humans that failure is not an option. Failure is an option. We can on the other hand negotiate with collapse and retreat in force. What is being done now by all colors is a denial of decline. Not so much with decline itself but the thinking there is a way out of a trap. A similar situation is the denial of death with the individual which is bargaining. It basically involves a Kubler Roth psychological process. There is nothing complex about this psychology except that this condition is pervasive and dispersed at all levels giving it a complexity and self-organization. Even scientist and academics acknowledge the problems but are delusional on the solutions not a few but many if not most.

My position is negotiation can take place at the local level of people and place. The individual and small groups can come to acceptance and affect constructive change in overall destructive change of an ascending level of a systematic succession. I call it ascending but the process is descending because it is a process within all the pyramids of life losing complexity with the web of life and being disturbed with the planet. So, this is abstract and physical with the spatial and time. In the abstract is human behavior that is clearly descending in wisdom and the rational. Irrational is one of the decline conditions along with dysfunction and abandonment. The physical vison of decline is obvious, just look around. The individual will not transcend this process but instead embrace it and be transformed. By embracing the process, the individual finds strength and meaning not a refuge but a calling. This means coming to acceptance as a terminally ill person does and going forth in action.

The psychology of this is even deeper for those serious about this adaptations. It becomes a life of living with dualism, finding paradoxes, and seeing the surreal for the awakened. This inevitable condition comes from living two lives. One life in the status quo of growth and “failure is not an option”. The other life is deep adaptation of the spiritual with an acceptance of a decline process. I call it a process because it is both physical and abstract and occurring over time. Events are part of this but it is more the unfolding of history in destructive change. The individual who are awakened then become a conduit of this powerful force. They can make wise choices and profit. This profit is not in worldly growth but spiritual meaning that offsets loss. This has to be with humility or else this strength and meaning will be disrupted. With pride comes delusions of the ego and this then leads to a falling back into the status quo just like the sheeples of techno optimism.

So, this is really not something that can be fixed but it can be adapted from being worse. It is unclear if human exceptionalism and delusional postion of manifest destiny will be much worse than acceptance. Both will lead to an end game of decline. Luck might play out and who knows the process might be short for a bounce back to a growth period. Life is a flux. I doubt this is the case at least in a happy ending. It would require a huge change in technical ability and human behavior. But dumb luck of fate can unfold in a serendipitous way. Don’t bank on it but instead accept it in pessimist optimism which is another nice incongruous juxtaposition feature of the surreal of decline. A hero who finds meaning has optimism even in death. I am only being objective here in regards to how the unfolding of life is beyond human understanding. An alien could pop up and offer humans the sacred secrets. It is more likely nature will play out as it always has and this will be just like past history just a global and technical rhyme.

It is only by scaling properly that good human wisdom is obtainable. This means local and in humility. The humility is acceptance of even the best of intentions and preparations are not a refuge. The wisdom is this is a journey on a sinking ship and as such certain behavior is advantageous and others destructive hence the niches of constructive change found in the ecology of succession. The little mammals that survive the die-off of the dinosaurs is a good example. They turned out to not be the biggest and badest but the most adaptable. In a human case it is the humble and accepting that find a niche of adaptability to properly decline constructively and with spiritual meaning.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Jan 2021, 11:04:23


Week beginning on January 10, 2021: 414.83 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 412.76 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 390.64 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 7

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Jan 2021, 11:05:00


January 19: 415.10 ppm
January 18: 415.10 ppm
January 17: 414.47 ppm
January 16: Unavailable
January 15: Unavailable
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