
Plantagenet wrote:Most of the growth in CO2 emissions is thought to come from gasoline used in increasing car, bus and plane travel around the globe.
Tanada wrote:
Week beginning on May 28, 2017: 409.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 407.62 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 386.92 ppm
June 09: 409.69 ppm
June 08: 409.49 ppm
June 07: 409.86 ppm
June 06: 409.87 ppm
June 05: 409.80 ppm
To maintain CO2 concentrations at a stable level, you could only emit what was effectively being balanced by long-term sinks. On the hundred-year scale, that is basically only the deep ocean, and the current sequestration there is about 2 GtC/yr. Given we are putting out ~10 GtC/yr, that means you’d have to cut emissions by 80% to stabilise CO2 (which is not the same as stabilising temperature – that would continue to rise, though more slowly). – gavin
We should be experiencing a relatively rapid collapse in CO2 being in an inter-glacial period and not a rapid increase. This is a systematic pattern in the observations. Where are the deniers and their variability excuse?
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has varied in step with glacial/interglacial cycles3,4 (Fig. 1). During interglacial times, such as the Holocene (roughly the past 10,000 years), the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) is typically near 280 parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.). During peak glacial times, such as the Last Glacial Maximum about 18,000 years ago, atmospheric pCO2 is 180±200 p.p.m.v., or roughly 80±100 p.p.m.v. lower.
There is a lot of volatility recently in the Mauna Loa numbers, but the underlying trend is very worrying. With no significant difference in ENSO level year over year, we are seeing 3+ ppm changes year over year. Even looking at the global CO2 estimate for 2018 vs 2017, it is 2.63 (based on the November numbers, will be revised as December to February come in). When taking into account methane etc. the annual change is around 5ppm CO2e.
I remember reading that average annual numbers between 2.5 and 3 would be a symptom of increasing carbon cycle feedbacks (reduction in sinks and/or increase in natural sources). Seems we may be at the beginning of this, which would mean that the rate of increase in atmospheric concentrations will continue to increase, even if emissions stabilize.
If this is happening at just over 1 degree centigrade, once again Jim Hansen will have been prove correct. The rest of science will take its usual time to catch up.
atest results from Keeling's lab:
Week beginning on February 10, 2019: 412.41 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 408.55 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 387.17 ppm
If I calculate correctly, the average yearly rise was ~ 2.5 ppm between Feb 2009 and Feb 2019.
The actual yearly rise is higher for many weeks now. Last week the difference grew to almost 4 ppm, and we do not have an El Niño yet. Where will this end?
dohboi wrote:From Stephen at asif:atest results from Keeling's lab:
Week beginning on February 10, 2019: 412.41 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 408.55 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 387.17 ppm
If I calculate correctly, the average yearly rise was ~ 2.5 ppm between Feb 2009 and Feb 2019.
The actual yearly rise is higher for many weeks now. Last week the difference grew to almost 4 ppm, and we do not have an El Niño yet. Where will this end?
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