[Pops]

Kub, I've said it before but you are the man.

[evilgenius]

I just accept Plant for who he is. Every once in a while, like when he contributes on the Arctic Ice threads, he breaks character. The rest of the time I say to myself that you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. My hunch is that Plant would have a lot to say, if he wanted to get involved at that level. But, you know, when the time comes and all of the workers are on the line frantically working things up, somebody always has to tell jokes. It helps. But you also don't hear much else from them. It's almost like the jokes are the only way they know how to say some things that are probably too important to leave to express with only jokes.

I'll offer this, I read recently somewhere about the Physicist Richard Feynman's learning technique. In the article it came down to this, people often confuse a grasp of wrote memorization with a grasp of a subject. Feynman said that these people often came to confusion, if you asked them serious questions about the things they asserted. How does it work? What's going on when it does this? Anything specific that required them to understand the machinations of a subject left them at a loss. Feynman said that these people often fell to earth when asked what the definitions of the big technical words they used to describe what they asserted were. They had only memorized the wording in order to get through some class. This can apply to acronyms or big technical words that describe things meant for a profession. It can also describe the debate over ideas. Humor might be another way of shielding one's self from the chaos that comes from having to engage. Humor doesn't get into the nitty gritty. It doesn't participate in the same way that those who live the life of the intellectual shortcut don't participate. No, it doesn't do that at every level. Yes, that is what you are doing when you effectively use humor as your sole proxy, seldom engaging in any other way. Because other people can't really respond to jokes.

[Ibon]

The rest of the time I say to myself that you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. My hunch is that Plant would have a lot to say, if he wanted to get involved at that level. But, you know, when the time comes and all of the workers are on the line frantically working things up, somebody always has to tell jokes. It helps. But you also don't hear much else from them. It's almost like the jokes are the only way they know how to say some things that are probably too important to leave to express with only jokes.

That sums it up pretty well. It's funny how as an on line community you reach a point where posters know each other so well you cannot any longer really hide behind the anonymity of your cyber identity.

In the case of Plant if you would force him to be serious at pinning down his position it is really about both parties being mutually incompetent so they both cancel each other. The reason this often comes across as a bit more right then left is because the R party believes strongly in cancelling government oversight and regulation. This does end up putting Plant much more sympathetic toward the R party.

The other dynamic at play is when you play yourself as an independent with no skin in the game you can look down at the political shenanigans from a place of superiority. The question of why one has a need to do this is answered somewhere back in childhood when in the chimpanzee hierarchy of adolescence someone perhaps made Plant feel diminished. What follows is a lifetime of trying to work this out.

Underneath all of this is a lonely ness crying out for love.

[Plantagenet]

My hunch is that Plant would have a lot to say, if he wanted to get involved at that level. But, you know, when the time comes and all of the workers are on the line frantically working things up, somebody always has to tell jokes. It helps.

Thank you. That is my intent.

In the case of Plant if you would force him to be serious at pinning down his position it is really about both parties being mutually incompetent so they both cancel each other. The reason this often comes across as a bit more right then left is because the R party believes strongly in cancelling government oversight and regulation. This does end up putting Plant much more sympathetic toward the R party.

If I'm going to make fun of the TPTB, I have to make fun of the Ds as well as the Rs. Right now the Ds control the Presidency and both houses of Congress, and the mainstream media, social media, Hollywood, print media, and the ultra wealthy are mostly also supporting the Ds, so its inevitable that the Ds will come in for more jokes, because the Ds are the ones who are actually more in control of more things more of the time.

As for my own personal politics I've pretty much been on the left most of my life, but my personal politics have usually been left of the Ds, and to me the Ds don't really look much different from the Rs. I worked for a while in a Ralph Nader PIRG, and like Ralph Nader, I'm very skeptical of the Ds. The Rs are evil, OK, but the Ds are worse in some ways because they say things that sound good (like stop war and stop global warming ) but in reality the policies of the Ds don't match their rhetoric. Because of the lies and the hypocrisy of the Ds we don't actually have honest national debates about global warming or other problems....we have the Ds taking up all the bandwidth with their promises, and then time after time failing to deliver. The way I look at it, that makes the Ds even worse then Rs, because at least the Rs don't lie about being evil.


The way I look at it, Al Gore stole the election from Ralph Nader

Cheers!

[aadbrd]

The other dynamic at play is when you play yourself as an independent with no skin in the game you can look down at the political shenanigans from a place of superiority.

Superiority is a good word. I find that those who fixate on "gotcha" political scandal (and resulting shadenfreude) are much the same as those who follow tabloid scandals about celebrities in general. There's usually some envy going on.

[JuanP]

I think that being critical of both the Republican and Democrat parties is the only option for anyone who wants the best for humanity, in general, and Americans, in particular. The fact that there are so many Americans that can't overcome their partisan bias and understand this is extremely sad, and the main reason why the USA has become a shithole country, IMHO.

I wish Americans where capable of overcoming their biases and exceptionalism, so that we could all work on making both the USA and the world a better place, but all most of you can do is whine, bitch, moan, and complain about those who don't agree with you. That attitude guarantees that the USA will fail as a nation and drag the rest of the world down with it, while you all refuse to take any responsibility and accuse and blame each other. It is quite a pathetic show!

[OutcastPhilosopher]

I think that being critical of both the Republican and Democrat parties is the only option for anyone who wants the best for humanity, in general, and Americans, in particular. The fact that there are so many Americans that can't overcome their partisan bias and understand this is extremely sad, and the main reason why the USA has become a shithole country, IMHO.

I wish Americans where capable of overcoming their biases and exceptionalism, so that we could all work on making both the USA and the world a better place, but all most of you can do is whine, bitch, moan, and complain about those who don't agree with you. That attitude guarantees that the USA will fail as a nation and drag the rest of the world down with it, while you all refuse to take any responsibility and accuse and blame each other. It is quite a pathetic show!

The US has already failed. People are just delusional. Once the financial system collapses what else will they have?

Family structure destroyed by feminism and no fault divorce.
Communities destroyed by offshoring, economic distortions, feminism, no fault divorce, etc.
Culture destroyed by multiculturalism, multiracialism, etc.

The social and cultural collapse has already taken place. We are just waiting for the financial system to go down and then it will be a full blown collapse.

I can't imagine how many boomers and silent generation will just off themselves once they find out their pension is worthless and social security is worthless. LOL

The future is mass SUICIDES!

[JuanP]

"The $7 trillion cost of upgrading the US power grid"
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... -Grid.html

The USA could do things like upgrade our Third World power grid, or we could just keep building F-35s, nuclear bombs, and aircraft carriers. What is more important?

[Pops]

I just accept Plant for who he is.

Me too, I ignore him, just like I do Fox and the right-wing memes on my facebook (where I see all his posts in advance).

As Ibon said about long running boards, you tend to know pretty much what lots of people are going to say on a variety of topics. The reason is most people are just spouting unexamined bias rather than any self-aware logic. Knee-jerk gut reaction. More and more those reactions are rote, they are baked in by the polarization of our silos, they stack one atop the other in predictable sequence.

I'm not above the fray, I'm not "independent" I certainly don't claim neutrality then spout party line. How long does one believe that tactic is effective? I don't agree with every leftist trope but what good would it do to pretend I don't agree somewhat with most? Wouldn't fool but the newest here. So I laugh at the "independents"; the "unaffiliated" trump/GOP defenders who didn't vote for him but cosign his every tweet, the "realist" doomers—the "realist" cornies, all the "realists" I laugh at you! You are just trying to convince yourselves you have it all figured out—but the very position of stating you know what is real is the giveaway that you are more deluded than most. HAHAHAHAHA

Ditto the pseudo cynics. They think that pretending to have no conviction or affiliation makes their ostensibly neutral right/left/whatever argument stronger—except their arguments are all predictably right/left/whatever! LOL These are the conspiracy fools too, "I'm not fooled by the thing fooling all you fools, I have the inside scoop!" PO tended to bring that out a lot. Sad.

I have respect for people who attempt to persuade rather than berate, make the effort to back their point with evidence rather than all caps/bold/huge fonts and ad homs. Especially that can admit a point without thinking it affects their internet score.

But in the end you can't change someone's belief. You might broaden someone's vision, hopefully your own, but arguing belief is a waste. Save yourself the grief and use the ignore button.

[evilgenius]

I think that being critical of both the Republican and Democrat parties is the only option for anyone who wants the best for humanity, in general, and Americans, in particular. The fact that there are so many Americans that can't overcome their partisan bias and understand this is extremely sad, and the main reason why the USA has become a shithole country, IMHO.

I wish Americans where capable of overcoming their biases and exceptionalism, so that we could all work on making both the USA and the world a better place, but all most of you can do is whine, bitch, moan, and complain about those who don't agree with you. That attitude guarantees that the USA will fail as a nation and drag the rest of the world down with it, while you all refuse to take any responsibility and accuse and blame each other. It is quite a pathetic show!

The US has already failed. People are just delusional. Once the financial system collapses what else will they have?

Family structure destroyed by feminism and no fault divorce.
Communities destroyed by offshoring, economic distortions, feminism, no fault divorce, etc.
Culture destroyed by multiculturalism, multiracialism, etc.

The social and cultural collapse has already taken place. We are just waiting for the financial system to go down and then it will be a full blown collapse.

I can't imagine how many boomers and silent generation will just off themselves once they find out their pension is worthless and social security is worthless. LOL

The future is mass SUICIDES!

So, America will be brought to mass suicide - for being America? I mean, because all of your examples include American values, which you seek to demonize. You go on as if those values are new things. Oh, this is an old argument. It's just that America has been the same about some things for some time. You are only perceiving them as new. Maybe those issue's relative newness capturing certain circle's spotlights is why you are on to this?

[ROCKMAN]

Not sure if the potential problem has been pointed out. The total failure would have been due to the frequency falling below 60 Hz. If you don't understand research some basic understanding of electricity transmission.

I'm too tired to walk baby steps with some folks here. LOL

[jedrider]

Not sure if the potential problem has been pointed out. The total failure would have been due to the frequency falling below 60 Hz. If you don't understand research some basic understanding of electricity transmission.

I'm too tired to walk baby steps with some folks here. LOL

Actually, Rockman, I am very INTERESTED in how frequency was the problem? I studied phsyics in college, but I don't understand this unless it is explained to me. Care to help us understand how this works, or doesn't work?

[JohnInSF]

Hi everyone!! I live in San Francisco and have been following you all since the Deep Water Horizon event back when you were on the oil drum. I have learned a lot of interesting stuff listening to you folks. I signed up and am writing today to let ROCKMAN know that I really appreciate his insight and willingness to share his depth of knowledge with us. We live in a complex world and energy is an important aspect of that world. We can not afford to be stupid. In SF we are fighting over transportation. Its a small city (49 sq miles) and I can get anywhere in minutes on an e-bike so I don't keep a car. This informs my perspective.

[Subjectivist]

Not sure if the potential problem has been pointed out. The total failure would have been due to the frequency falling below 60 Hz. If you don't understand research some basic understanding of electricity transmission.

I'm too tired to walk baby steps with some folks here. LOL

Actually, Rockman, I am very INTERESTED in how frequency was the problem? I studied phsyics in college, but I don't understand this unless it is explained to me. Care to help us understand how this works, or doesn't work?

I am not an electrician but I knew a few in my younger days so I will take a stab at it. Electric AC grids in the USA are generally multiphase, typically three phase. Think of an electric current as being like a jump rope with two kids on opposite ends swinging it in big loops. The line connecting the two handles straight across is the X axis on a graph and as the rope swings all the way around in a circle it maps out points in the Y and Z axis' all the way through rotation. In terms of time the current is swinging around very fast, at light speed in fact, but graphed over time the current goes up and down in the Y axis on a flat graph forming a sine wave on an oscilloscope. To compare a normal DC current source is a flat line in a fixed Y distance above the X axis. When I say three phase what I mean is the electric companies producing the power are sending three separate currents down the wire simultaneously so that as soon as phase one starts to fall off from its Y peak the second phase rises up to pass it, then as the second is falling the third passes it followed by the next cycle of the first phase so that the three phases overlap delivering three times as much current as a single phase could carry down the same wire infrastructure. The 60Hz is how many of these wave peaks pass through the electric line every second in a single phase connection.

In order for a connected grid to work without causing all sorts of problems all of the different generators have to be coordinated so that the current they are adding to the grid is phase locked with all the other producers so that the peaks all arrive in a pattern that machinery receiving the current can operate on without issues. BTW Russia and IIRC most or all of the EU run there systems on a 50 Hz cycle while the North American systems run on 60 Hz which means electric motors from one side have to have an adapter to run properly on the other side's electric current. For systems that use DC current you add a transformer to the circuit, usually a big block box at the plug end that converts the cyclic AC current into a steady DC current.

Now take a few thousand windmills each of which is its own independent generator. Design a good computer control system so they only actively connect to the grid when their generators are producing current at 60Hz and when that current is phase locked with the grid to prevent overloads and power surges that destroy electronic devices. Now make it really cold so the lubricating fluid in those thousand wind turbines gets thick and jelly like instead of flowing free and easy. You now have thousands of individual windmills trying to produce useful power that are fighting against the increased difficulty of turning generator transmission parts coated in a thick jelly like sticky coating instead of the lubricating fluid they are intended to work with. Suddenly one after another of these wind turbine generators loses phase lock and is automatically tripped out of the system to avoid dangerous and destructive power surges. Doesn't matter if they keep turning, if the transmissions that connect the hub shaft to the generator can not supply the correct RPM for the generator to maintain 60Hz in phase lock that generator is not allowed to connect to the grid.

Compounding the problem, a lot of fossil plants in the deep south leave parts or even most of their feed lines exposed because it is both a lot cheaper to build that way and a lot easier to maintain a natural gas feed line that is on the surface rather than buried two meters down. Not all of these plants get purified ,methane gas like you are supposed to get for household use because industrial standards are different. As a consequence some of the gas going to power plants has water vapor, CO2 and heavier hydrocarbons like Propane, Butane or possibly even Pentane mixed in with the gas. Normally this is not a problem because industrial users pay by the BTU rather than the volume if they are getting a mixed gas. Unfortunately if you run the pressurized mixed gas through a long enough above ground supply line in very cold temperatures the water vapor and heavier hydrocarbons drop out as liquids or in the case of water as solids on the bottom of the transmission pipeline. In some cases even that doesn't matter a whole lot, but when the pipe goes around an elbow in the vertical direction the water freezing out of the mixed gas can form a partial ice plug at the bend, which restricts the flow of gas and reduces the power the plant can produce. In Ohio not too far south of Toledo there is a big natural gas burning plant and it has three or four massive fuel tanks, the really big ones like you see at a refinery or ship yard that deals in large volumes of fuel. From the company information those giant tanks can allow them to run all four of their gas turbine generators non stop for at least a week in the event something damages the supply line feeding the power plant. Apparently some of the gas burning plants in Texas ended up with plugged fuel lines from the cold snap and did not have or could not access their stored fuel to keep their generators running.

[Newfie]

Sub,

Thanks for taking a stab at the explanation.

Some things you got right and some not so much. But it is a difficult topic for a layman to understand let alone explain.

You are correct, all the generation sources on a grid need to be phase locked. When one plant starts to loose lock, can not maintain lock, it needs to he taken off line to protect itself and other generators.

When you are driving a car up a steep hill it starts to slow down. Sort if similar with generation, when you apply a heavy load it becomes hard to spin fast enough and the you loose the synchronization or phase lock you speak of. The heavy load can be high friction die to cold, or because of too much demand, or a combination.

US 60hz nominal 120vac, europe 50hz nominal 240vac. The transformer you note will change the VOLTAGE from 120 to 240 or visa versa but will not change the frequency. Much modern electronics is designed to work on 50 or 60hz, so a simple transformer does the trick.

Transformers require AC (alternating current) to work. With DC there is no frequency, or the frequency is 0, the voltage more or less constant. To get AC from DC you need an INVERTER. The inverter uses solid state electronics to turn the DC ON and OFF, and to reverse polarity to make AC. To increase or decrease the DC voltage you kind of run the DC through an Inverter and then reassemble the waveforms into a higher or lower voltage DC. Such devices are becoming more practical and are used more widely in europe to gain the advantages of High Voltage DC transmission.

[Newfie]

Hi everyone!! I live in San Francisco and have been following you all since the Deep Water Horizon event back when you were on the oil drum. I have learned a lot of interesting stuff listening to you folks. I signed up and am writing today to let ROCKMAN know that I really appreciate his insight and willingness to share his depth of knowledge with us. We live in a complex world and energy is an important aspect of that world. We can not afford to be stupid. In SF we are fighting over transportation. Its a small city (49 sq miles) and I can get anywhere in minutes on an e-bike so I don't keep a car. This informs my perspective.

Welcome aboard.

[Pops]

So it confuses me why this whole bit about frequency comes up now as I've never heard of it in relation to black/brown outs. If it is merely the indication that the system is overloaded as Newf points out, like a car lugging on a hill, then every overload black and brown out ever experiences the same thing. Demand increases and/or power generation decreases so the load to the remaining generation increases to cover, they overload and causes circuit breakers to trip. Repeat.

I get that frequency is important to motors, electronics, etc; and when bringing new power back on the grid; or importing power from a distance, but low frequency wouldn't in itself have killed the grid any more than low RPM would kill the car on the hill. It isn't low RPM but overloading that kills the engine — blows the transformers— which is why circuit breakers. They shut down the grid to keep it from overloading and burning down. Big transformers and whatever other equipment would take long lead times to replace, same problem as with EMP.

The whole frequency thing seems like a gratuitous complication, kind of a back door indictment of RE vs thermal generation— spinning coal generators have Inertia baby! As in this PR screed for a power generator in the UK goes to pains to describe:

System inertia
As well as being able to automatically adjust to keep the country on the right frequency, Drax’s massive turbines, spinning at 3,000 rpm, also have the advantage of adding inertia to the grid.

Inertia is an object’s natural tendency to keep doing what it is currently doing.

This system inertia of the spinning plant is effectively ‘stored’ energy. This can be used to act as a damper on the whole system to slow down and smooth out sudden changes in system frequency across the network – much like a car’s suspension it helps maintain stability.

...More than that, the ancillary services needed to stabilise a more volatile grid can’t be generated by every generation source. Many depend on a turbine rotating at 3,000 rpm, generating electricity at a steady frequency of 50Hz, as is found in thermal generators such as Drax. Intermittent, also known as variable sources of power, are weather dependent. They are often unable to provide the same services as biomass and gas power stations.
https://www.drax.com/technology/great-b ... id-stable/

Especially when coming out of Texas where the very first thing out of Abbots mouth was It was the windmills!!!.

I think it is a diversion or smoke or diversionary smoke... of a certain frequency. LOL

[Newfie]

Pops,

You may not have heard of it but it is likely that is the emergent reason for the brown out.

Our news reporting is pretty dumb.

The analogy to the car is a bit different. To make it more exact it is like having 7 cars all attached to a single load, the engine RPM on each vehicle must be 2,500 RPM +/- 1 RPM, no matter the load. If an engine can no longer produce 2,500 RPM then that car must disconnect, which then puts additional load on the remaining 6 engines and can cause a cascading failure as they now struggle to keep 2,500 RPM.

Now this coordination has to happen between various generation stations owned and operated by various agencies and corporations.

That it happens at all amazes me.

Below is the “probably more than you want to know” explanation.

If the breaker is closed and the rotor speed is not a close match, the unit with the higher rotational force abruptly pulls the weaker machine (with higher internal impedance) toward it in terms of RPM. The result is a sudden acceleration or deceleration, accompanied by heavy current in both the conductors joining the machines and in both machines’ windings. This shock to the system is also felt by both prime movers, perhaps in diesel motors breaking the crankshafts.

Additional effects may show up throughout the distribution system, including abrupt power supply oscillations, transformer damage and tripping of over-current devices causing power outages.

https://www.testandmeasurementtips.com/ ... nized-faq/

I need to spend some time with this article myself. That all of this happens is just taken for granted.

Changing AC to DC occurs through a rectifier with filtering, often called a “full wave bridge” or DC power supply. Very crudely think car battery charger.

Changing DC to AC requires an Inverter.

Changing frequency - 60hz to 50hz ir visa versa requires a cyclo-converter.

Changing AC voltage (440 to 120VAC) requires a transformer.

Changing DC voltage requires a Inverter - Power Supply combination.

OK, I will stop now.

[Pops]

Again, I understand the "alternating" part of AC. I get that the current oscillates and needs to maintain a certain frequency so everything gets along without drama. My question is why is it coming up now, in Texas, when simply saying the grid was "overloaded" would be sufficient?

Turns out (short answer) is big turbines like coal, Nukes, Nat gas, hydro are directly and synchronously connected to the grid and their spinning mass provides inertia that stabilizes grid frequency against load shocks. Renewable energy like wind and solar doesn't provide the same "service" or effect because it is connected through an inverter which acts more like an old Hydromatic than a stick-shift.

Evaluating rotational inertia as a component of grid reliability with high penetrations of variable renewable energy
Rotational inertia is a measure of the kinetic energy present in a generator's spinning rotor, and system inertia is the total amount of rotational inertia available to the grid from online, synchronously-connected generators [10]. Studies have shown that grids with reduced system inertia levels require faster frequency control after a contingency event [12]. When connected systems fail to respond in time to an outage, frequency deviations can lead to significant problems on the grid. For example, generator damage, under-frequency load-shedding, and in the worst case, fault cascades and blackouts might occur [13].

Several papers I found talk about Texas especially because of the high wind penetration and mention CA as well. So my impression that the talk about frequency was aimed as a hit at renewables is probably true. But don't really address the actual problem, investment is needed in the grid because renewables require some some additional service to stabilize frequency.

There are a number of additional factors that could impact a grid's system inertia, but were not considered in this work. Grid-scale energy storage could be used to help avoid renewable energy curtailment and provide fast frequency response, which might reduce ERCOT's inertia requirements [59]. Likewise, recent research suggests that “synthetic inertia” from wind could provide frequency support, since these generators can sometimes extract energy from the spinning turbine blades [60]. With smart inverters, solar PV might also be able to supply fast frequency response [61]. (ibib)

Also there needs to be a grid sufficient to move power around and that could help balance loads. Texas and CA both need more oversight not less, I think, just saying the market will figure it out obviously isn't working.

---
Department of Energy

NREL

[Newfie]

So my impression that the talk about frequency was aimed as a hit at renewables is probably true. But don't really address the actual problem, investment is needed in the grid because renewables require some some additional service to stabilize frequency.

Renewables have different characteristics. Pointing that out is not a “hit” it is a statement of a vulnerability that needs addressing.

And what would that “additional service” be, does it exist?

Switching the tie grids to HVDC does a lot, it improves efficiency but also eliminates the need for the complicated AC synchronization. Originally was used for distribution because you could easily increase and decrease voltage with transformers. There are a fewer system losses when moving poser at high voltage than the same amount of power at low voltage. HVDC has even fewer losses but the DC conversion equipment was not available until about 40 years ago.

Switching to HVDC transmission would save 7% to 15% of all power generated that is now lost as heat. It also does away with the synchronization problem. These are significant improvements and should be at the very top of any “green infrastructure” wish list. The problem is that the grids are owned in some crazy patchwork fashion and the myriad organizations and corporations cant cooperate. But also NIMBY resistance is significant.

Decades ago Congress gave itself the right of eminent domaine specifically for the purpose of constructing new power lines, but has never used it. Partly because there has been a move away from huge centralized plants with additional generation being added as smaller “point of use” generation, typically gas turbines has eased the pressure.

The bottom line is that there are things to be done but it requires a increased level of cooperation and additional investment. It may well require government intervention, perhaps creating a monopoly or government take over of the grid tie system to come up with a truly workable and rational system. This is an area where “natural monopolies” make a lot of sense.

I see no way forward on this without congressional action. This is truly a matter if national interest and national security.