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Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 17:39:31

pstarr wrote:I know next to nothing


We figured that out a long time ago.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 17:42:47

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:I know next to nothing


We figured that out a long time ago.

Who is 'We'?

Nobody is on your a side, asgy. You are alone with your bitterness :cry:
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 21:11:20

New homes, existing homes and auto sales are all tanking. I didn’t think the real crises is going to hit until 2019 Q2. We are just scratching the surface of this coming one. It’s going to make the 2008 crises look like boom times.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 22:04:38

Armageddon wrote:New homes, existing homes and auto sales are all tanking. I didn’t think the real crises is going to hit until 2019 Q2. We are just scratching the surface of this coming one. It’s going to make the 2008 crises look like boom times.

That was just a warm up. Folks here have a short memory. We were basically still mired in recession when Trump took office those short two years ago. Now we know the recession never went away, merely glossed over by QE and a few years of more stupid indebtedness.
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 22:17:45

pstarr wrote:
Armageddon wrote:New homes, existing homes and auto sales are all tanking. I didn’t think the real crises is going to hit until 2019 Q2. We are just scratching the surface of this coming one. It’s going to make the 2008 crises look like boom times.

That was just a warm up. Folks here have a short memory. We were basically still mired in recession when Trump took office those short two years ago. Now we know the recession never went away, merely glossed over by QE and a few years of more stupid indebtedness.



Yep. Bailouts, buyouts, QE, o% interest rates kept the entire thing afloat and actually blew the bubble 2x as big. 2019 is going to be the year of all years globally. Those European riots will be here in 2019. Buy gold and silver and buckle up
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 22:55:31

And there is this
Image
How many of the new owners use the damn things for anything but garbage bags/trips to the dump? Idiot America
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 04:11:23

To be continually worried about how other people live their life or the type of vehicle they drive, must be an exhausting affair. I'm glad I do not have the energy for such foolishness.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:07:33

The Dec. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey "unexpectedly" collapsed to minus 5.1. This is the lowest level in more than two years, and the biggest monthly drop since The Great Recession of 2008. How much more evidence is needed before economic cheerleaders change their song?

Peter Schiff


Yikes, that is really bad
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:20:19

Yikes, that is really bad


please point to a previous recession where unemployment was at 3.7% (a ~50 year low) and the economy was growing at 35?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:33:09

rockdoc123 wrote:
Yikes, that is really bad


please point to a previous recession where unemployment was at 3.7% (a ~50 year low) and the economy was growing at 35?



Please point to a previous time when 3.7% unemployment resulted in these facts:

A new study suggests 6/10 US Jobs do not pay enough to support a middle class lifestyle

A recent survey suggests 6/10 US citizens do not have even $1,000 in savings

51.7% children in the US live in homes receiving Federal Government Assistance
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:40:49

Only 13% of Americans plan to buy homes next year. This is -50% less than a year ago.

Single family home inventory up 86%

Condo inventory up 188%

Homebuilders and lumber in bear markets
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:49:30

Read this article to understand the slow disintegration of middle class. It is easy to quote a few statistics. But the truth of what has been going on is more profound than that.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/cu ... ng-754735/
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 12:53:30

“…Americans living paycheck to paycheck were highlighted in a recent report from the Federal Reserve that showed four in ten adults say they couldn’t produce $400 in an emergency without going into debt or selling something…”


And they are calling this a good economy? 8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 13:00:00

pstarr wrote:Who is 'We'?


Shall I open a poll on how many people think you're stupid? I don't think you'll like the results.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 13:22:58

Armageddon wrote:“…Americans living paycheck to paycheck were highlighted in a recent report from the Federal Reserve that showed four in ten adults say they couldn’t produce $400 in an emergency without going into debt or selling something…”


And they are calling this a good economy? 8O


What was the data on that in 2006? Of course such things don't matter to a fast crash doomer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 13:31:55

Armageddon wrote:Only 13% of Americans plan to buy homes next year. This is -50% less than a year ago.

Single family home inventory up 86%

Condo inventory up 188%

Homebuilders and lumber in bear markets

Some pretty bogus figures there.
Real total home sales (new and existing) was 6.3 million units in 2018 up from 2017. Even if you allow four people per home sale that will only account for eight percent of the population and the number is increasing not decreasing. Also inventory single family and condo is the number of units unsold not the number that exist which is 137 million units which is slowly but steadily growing. Home builders and lumber yards will do a steady business just maintaining the existing stock.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275 ... from-2009/
Note that I link a source for my figures against yours pulled from thin air. :wink:
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 13:35:28

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:“…Americans living paycheck to paycheck were highlighted in a recent report from the Federal Reserve that showed four in ten adults say they couldn’t produce $400 in an emergency without going into debt or selling something…”


And they are calling this a good economy? 8O


What was the data on that in 2006? Of course such things don't matter to a fast crash doomer.



1.5 trillion deficit coming
All time record corporate debt
All time record consumer debt
All time record student load debt
21 trillion US debt and rising
500 billion interest payment (and rising fast)
100+ trillion in unfunded liabilities
Pensions severely underfunded

All is good if you live with your head buried in the sand
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 13:39:29

vtsnowedin wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Only 13% of Americans plan to buy homes next year. This is -50% less than a year ago.

Single family home inventory up 86%

Condo inventory up 188%

Homebuilders and lumber in bear markets

Some pretty bogus figures there.
Real total home sales (new and existing) was 6.3 million units in 2018 up from 2017. Even if you allow four people per home sale that will only account for eight percent of the population and the number is increasing not decreasing. Also inventory single family and condo is the number of units unsold not the number that exist which is 137 million units which is slowly but steadily growing. Home builders and lumber yards will do a steady business just maintaining the existing stock.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275 ... from-2009/
Note that I link a source for my figures against yours pulled from thin air. :wink:




Here you go
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/where-we-are/
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 15:31:28

I estimate that Armageddon with deflate after 4th quarter GDP comes in much like a birthday party balloon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Pops » Mon 31 Dec 2018, 16:35:42

Here is the worst trend IMO
Wage's share of GDP has fallen steadily since the 70s

Image

America's GDP in 2015 was about $18 trillion. Wages' share-about 42.5%-is $7.65 trillion.
If wage's share was 50%, as it was in the early 1970s, its share would be $9 trillion.That's $1.35 trillion more that would be flowing to wage earners.
That works out to $13,500 per household for 100 million households.


Blame it on Ronnie Raygun, or the Chinese or Mexicans, simple greed in the C suite, automation, or maybe that cool phrase "The Gig Economy" but after each recession, wage's share has fallen. Only the upper 5% have seen gains.

Not to mention the 5 or 10 trillion the government borrowed and handed out to those same corps over the last decade. And look, we just voted to borrow a few billion more so those long suffering corporate persons and their ownership can pay even lower taxes, one of the lowest marginal rates in the world, Praise Be!

So keep on thinking it's all about "personal responsibility and work ethic."
There is a reason people think they've gotten a raw deal, it's because they have.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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