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Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 16:18:48

The flat earthers proudly presented last month that they now have members all around the globe!

Anyway...the Bears are saying that the bear market rally is now over, that the top is in after the rejection of S&P 500 at 2,500 today...and that after the largest buy orders in history came in today.

Next weak the next leg down in this bear market is coming...according to the Bears.

We will just have to wait and see...

Can Trump fire the plunge protection team?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 17:13:18

The Bears think that the next target for S&P 500 is 2,100 and after that...

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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 17:26:25

The Fed inflated this stock market bubble. Everybody felt really good on the way up...

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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 19:23:51

digital fake numbers can not really make one feel good. Conversely they really shouldn't make you feel bad either.

In any case, if your good feelings are dependent on digital fake numbers going up or down then you are seriously fucked up.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 19:28:08

Digital money is just as real as any other kind.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 19:42:17

QE and 0% interest rates took the 2008 crises into one that will dwarf that one. Hope you are hoarding physical gold and silver. The fiat game is coming to an end.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 20:09:53

Cog wrote:Digital money is just as real as any other kind.


Yeah, that’s the problem.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 20:21:44

Cog wrote:Digital money is just as real as any other kind.

The only thing real about digital money, is the gigawatts of energy consumed to generate it, power that could easily be put to more useful work.

Many digital currencies cost more in electricity bills than their value.

https://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 21:01:55

Cog wrote:Digital money is just as real as any other kind.


Can you wipe your ass with a digital dollar?
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 21:10:59

No but I can buy beer with it. And I'm not talking about that fraud called bitcoin. But the ones and zeroes in my bank account.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 21:37:20

This is the problem with terminology and people not understanding what it means. Digital exchange of money doesn't require bitcoin or any of the other new digital currencies to be involved. It simply requires transferring funds from one account to another via the computer, done all the time and it doesn't require someone to go and collect a bunch of cash and walk it down the street to another bank.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Fri 28 Dec 2018, 21:51:00

Exactly. I haven't carried actual cash for quite some time. No need for it really. A few quarters for parking meters if I ever encounter one. Some bills I still pay by check just because I'm stubborn but everything else is paid with a cash back credit card.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 06:20:05

I’ve used 6 different currencies in the last year. In many places there is no access to a credit card, so you need to ask before ordering a meal, we have been surprised. I now carry $, €, and EC$ (East Carribean dollars).

In the DR a taxi driver could not change a 50 real note, about $15US. There and in PR a Sprite cost 60¢ US, but in St Kits it cost 6€. Go figure.

In St Martin they use $ and €, sometimes at a flat exchange rate.

Canadian $
US $
Bahamian $
DR Real

East Carribean $
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 14:39:35

Newfie wrote:
Cog wrote:Digital money is just as real as any other kind.


Yeah, that’s the problem.

Why is that a problem? I think fiat is fiat.

1). Virtually every paper currency in history failed eventually.

2). Digital is just a more convenient form of fiat. Governments can skip the physical printing press step. Zimbabwe style hyperinflation can certainly happen with either type of fiat.

3). Global stock markets have been highly volatile at times as long as they've been written about.

The primarily silliness re this thread is the usual FUD spreading and hyperventilating and pretending like THIS TIME, economic doom is at our doorstep because many stock markets are entering a bear market (recently -- I have NO idea what stocks do in the short or intermediate term) after 9 years of phenomenal growth.

The fast crash economic doomers never seem to learn anything. Which is pretty ironic, since being "prepared" should involve LEARNING about the world as a top priority! For example, since if you survive long enough, there is a 100% chance you will get old (fast crash doomers included) financial common sense including steady retirement savings would make FAR more sense than fear mongering over short term doom. But no, it's hard to spread FUD by steadily investing in one's 401-K or IRA, etc. whether it be via stocks, interest bearing accounts, or gold coins. (And gold is shinier and I have some as an inflation hedge, but over a career, stocks have historically done MUCH MUCH better, especially when considering all the dividends.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 14:47:56

Yoshua wrote:The Bears think that the next target for S&P 500 is 2,100 and after that...

Do you have any concept how USELESS staring at charts is, as far as trying to beat the market in the short to moderate term? It's so bad, after trading expenses are calculated, that over time, the buy and hold approach of index funds beats actively managed funds a good 80% of the time. And more time tends to help the index funds outperform by more.

The Elliot Wave "theorists", etc. like Robert Prechter tend to be the very WORST as far as accuracy of predictions re the market. For people that actually bother to keep track with statistically significant results, re number of measurements and methodology, he's right around 20% accurate. Wow, where do I sign up for stupid charts with some clown putting numbers various places? :roll:

https://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

If you want to state at first world index stock charts productively, try looking at how strongly the trend is higher over a few decades or more. With long term returns in the ball park of 7% or so after inflation, it's well worth the volatility -- to those with the ability to be patient.

People who actively trade funds (making one or more trades a year) tend to underperform the overall long term fund returns by roughly 5%, per some studies I've looked at in books. So much for the active "buy low, sell high" theory, at least for most people.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Cog » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 16:39:11

I agree. Most people are better off with no or low fee index funds that contain diversified sectors of the economy. Active trading is at best a coin flip. I do some trading when I see an opportunity to capitalize on a one time bad news for an otherwise profitable company. But really, buy and hold works more consistently for me than anything else.

Time is your ally in the market and investing when you are young allows you to ride out bear markets without the usual panic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 29 Dec 2018, 18:47:38

That’s why I let a professional handle the money. He has more restraint and better instincts than I do.
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 15:04:48

rockdoc123 wrote:can I suggest you wankers start up a new thread titled something like "the Fed and everyone else who has more money than me is out to get me...they planned 911, orchestrated all the wars, were behind all of the various lone shooter incidents, determine how much oil is produced, faked the moon landing and created a false story about Ernie and Bert being gay"
that should keep you sufficiently entertained so the adults can have an intelligent discussion. :roll:


Post of the year.

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"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 16:51:14

The German stock market (Dax) has broken its technical support...and in two days the ECB will end its QE program. Euro crisis 2.0 will hit the core this time.

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Re: Stock Market Crash starting 1st August 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 30 Dec 2018, 16:57:52

I know next to nothing re stock markets (always put my money elsewhere), but I do know this; there isn't a global stock market anywhere on a healthy footing.
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What country? Does it matter
"You can dance-every dance with the guy
Who gives you the eye, let him hold you tight
You can smile-every smile for the man
Who held your hand neath the pale moon light
But don't forget who's takin' you home
And in whose arms you're gonna be
So darlin' save the last dance for me"


The World Economy is crashing. For the last time. (hint: canada)
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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