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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:20:16

GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Try to get a TINY clue re real world economic data as reported in the mainstream, instead of constantly cherry picking any doom-sounding tidbit you can find. Else, you continue to have no credibility re economics at all.

In 2010 through 2014 GLOBAL GDP was growing rather steadily, and just fine -- not just the US, which also did just fine.

Try to keep an open mind about objective reality, instead of pretending to be zerohedge, but without even posting links or stating any data points.

But thanks for the "great advice". :roll:

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg


Accusing others of cherry picking, then using GDP as your only metric, is clearly a case of Pot calling Kettle black, especially in light of extraordinary measures taken (and ongoing) to force GDP into positive territory.

Yes, of course, the cry of the economically daft doomers. GDP doesn't matter. GDP shouldn't be used as a primary measure of the economy, even though that's what professional economists do. Positive GDP means ongoing recession or even depression, even though that's nonsense, because the numbers are "fixed".

When you have to resort to utter nonsense and conspiracy theories, why even bother to post? Oh that's right, because you're a doomer, even though you sometimes claim you're not.

BTW. Is the GDP "forcing" conspiracy being led by the same people who are hiding that the earth is flat? Or that have the 911 truthers all wound up? Or are behind pretending the moon landings re the Apollo missions actually occurred? :roll:

OTOH, in the real world, GDP measures primary economic activity, which is why it is so popular with people who actually have a clue about economics. Deal with it.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:24:36, edited 2 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:21:13

Repo just hit 7 percent.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:22:52

Yeah right Iran wants to start a War. Iran denies involvement
https://www.ft.com/content/c76c2c6a-d79 ... 216ebe1f17

Saudi Arabia faces weeks without full oil production after attack. KSA, is being left out to dry. US is trying to keep the fracking going at all costs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:26:07

onlooker wrote:Yeah right Iran wants to start a War. Iran denies involvement
https://www.ft.com/content/c76c2c6a-d79 ... 216ebe1f17

Saudi Arabia faces weeks without full oil production after attack. KSA, is being left out to dry. US is trying to keep the fracking going at all costs.

So you would expect Iran to admit it, if it were behind it? Sure they would.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:43:44

Outcast_Searcher wrote: .....

Yes, of course, the cry of the economically daft doomers. GDP doesn't matter. GDP shouldn't be used as a primary measure of the economy, even though that's what professional economists do. Positive GDP means ongoing recession or even depression, even though that's nonsense, because the numbers are "fixed".

When you have to resort to utter nonsense and conspiracy theories, why even bother to post? Oh that's right, because you're a doomer, even though you sometimes claim you're not.

BTW. Is the GDP "forcing" conspiracy being led by the same people who are hiding that the earth is flat? Or that have the 911 truthers all wound up? Or are behind pretending the moon landings re the Apollo missions actually occurred? :roll:

OTOH, in the real world, GDP measures primary economic activity, which is why it is so popular with people who actually have a clue about economics. Deal with it.


This reactionary and childish response is beneath you. Flat earthers? Really? Care to try again?
Where did I say that GDP doesn't matter? Or that we're all doomed? What I was getting at is that (because GDP matters a lot as far as mass perception goes) GDP can be, and is being, artificially manipulated (forced) via extraordinary measures mentioned. Me saying GDP doesn't matter would be as dumb as you saying that the massive debt runnup we've seen, globally, doesn't matter, or that huge central bank interventions can, or should, go on indefinitely.
You aren't saying those things,,, are you??

Nice to know that you "have a clue" about economic matters, and the rest of us, and our conclusions, can be invalidated. Thanks for that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 15:23:00

US can increase production from where? Shale or Alaska. Maybe all those deep water developments that got canned 10 years ago. What a load! The US is tapped out with the rest of the world.


Well, it is as easy as going to the EIA. As I pointed out above the frac log is still significant. There are currently 7950 wells drilled and uncompleted in the various unconventional developments in the US. Completing all of those wells with an average IP of 400 bopd would result in about 3 MMbbl/d of new production, not insignificant. As well the time frame from drilling a well to having it on production in the shale plays can be as short as a week, add on drill times and new wells can be brought to production in less than a half month's time.

The point is if prices were to spike suddenly because of a SA crisis then suddenly everything becomes economic in the various US basins that had been previously put on the back burner. That amounts to thousands of wells that could be drilled that were uneconomic previously. Once again your small brain prevents you from understanding the concept of supply and demand. As supply drops (ie. SA supply taken off stream) and demand is remaining at its ever-increasing rate commodity prices are forced to rise. And just as when they rose to $100+ activity in the US unconventional increases which results in more production to the point at which supply is again higher than demand and price falls.

Goldman Sachs has come out with the following scenarios based on how long SA production is reduced:

A very short outage – a week for example – would likely drive long-dated prices higher to reflect a growing risk premium, although short of what occurred last fall given a debottlenecked Permian shale basin, a weaker growth outlook and prospects of strong non-OPEC production growth in 2020. Such a price impact could likely be of $3-5/bbl.

An outage at current levels of two to six weeks would, in addition to this move in long-dated prices, see a steepening of the Brent forward curve (2-mo vs. 3-year forward) of $2 to $9/bbl respectively. All in, the expected price move would be between $5 and $14/bbl, commensurate to the length of the outage(a six month outage of 1 mb/d would be similar to a six week one at current levels).

Should the current level of outage be announced to last for more than six weeks, we expect Brent prices to quickly rally above $75/bbl, a level at which we believe an SPR release would likely be implemented, large enough to balance such a deficit for several months and cap prices at such levels.

An extreme net outage of a 4 mb/d for more than three months would likely bring prices above $75/bbl to trigger both large shale supply and demand responses.


the market currently seems to be anticipating scenario two.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 15:30:32

rockdoc123 wrote:[ ......... There are currently 7950 wells drilled and uncompleted in the various unconventional developments in the US. Completing all of those wells with an average IP of 400 bopd would result in about 3 MMbbl/d of new production, not insignificant. As well the time frame from drilling a well to having it on production in the shale plays can be as short as a week, add on drill times and new wells can be brought to production in less than a half month's time. ...........


How do that get that new production to market? The article I linked to, above, seems to say pipeline capacity, especially out of the Permian, is already maxed out, as are most terminals.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 16:50:38

How do that get that new production to market? The article I linked to, above, seems to say pipeline capacity, especially out of the Permian, is already maxed out, as are most terminals


the main issues with egress from the Permian were largely fixed months ago as I remember. RBN Energy reports:

Just two years ago, severe transportation constraints and steep price discounts were part and parcel of the Northeast natural gas market. Midstreamers were racing to add much-needed pipeline capacity out of the region, but not fast enough for producers. It was an inevitability that any pipeline expansions would instantaneously fill up. Gas production records were an almost monthly or weekly occurrence, and just as unrelenting were the takeaway constraints and pressure on the region’s supply prices. Not so today. Northeast gas production in June posted a record high, with the monthly average exceeding 31 Bcf/d for the first time. Yet, June spot prices at Dominion South, Appalachia’s representative supply hub, were the strongest they’ve been in six years relative to national benchmark Henry Hub. Why? The spate of pipeline expansions and additions in the past two years have not only caught up to production but capacity now far outpaces it, and consequently, producers now have something they haven’t had in a long time — optionality


If the economics are there companies will solve egress issues pretty quickly
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 17:15:51

Not sure what surplus gas pipeline capacity has to do with moving crude. Anyway, as I posted links, above, there seems to be concern (problems with) getting much more US crude to market than current capacity will allow. Either someone is poorly informed here, or handwaving. Which is it? I'm generally not good with "Nothing to see here. Move along" responses. Or maybe Bernadette Johnson of Enverus doesn't know wtf she's talking about?

"There does seem to be this idea in the public's mind that shale can ramp up supply immediately, and that is simply not the case," said Bernadette Johnson of Enverus, an energy data analytics company. ...

...."The infrastructure simply isn't there yet to get it to the coast, and the coastal export terminals couldn't handle it either," she said ......


Maybe they can run big hoses across the ground right into the ships. 8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 17:17:25

"We are massively oversupplied," said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average."


Thanks Yoshua, I was trying to figure that out a while ago. His figures sound about right. I never double checked my figures because important things came up to interrupt me. Trump came out with his "lock and load" comment; [thank you John Wayne]; the dog caught a case of kennel cough, and the cat tore the foil out of the grill. All equally significant events.

All of this commotion because a Saudi tripped over an extension cord. It was placed there by one of their $2 a day Ethiopian slaves. We had some shortage scares about 10 years ago when the Colonial sprung a leak. At that time we calculated that it would take a US inventory of about 150 mb of Total Product before shortages of finished product appeared in the retail market. If the Saudi lost 5.7 mb/d, and the US uses its weighted product average of that, it will take a little over a year before shortages begin to show up in the US retail market -- assuming we couldn't replace 1 mb/d. If that happens we fire the US military.

Let's send GE over there to fix the damn plant. They really need the business.

I will pay my fair share. I have a brand new 10¢ piece right here. If the plant is not fixed by January !, 2021 we will send Trump in person. If the Saudi don't have enough aerial defense, after buying $20 billion in US hardware, to stop a few drones Ratheon has a $10 billion system that will fix them right up.

This is well beyond ridiculous.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 17:50:28

Not sure what surplus gas pipeline capacity has to do with moving crude. Anyway, as I posted links, above, there seems to be concern (problems with) getting much more US crude to market than current capacity will allow. Either someone is poorly informed here, or handwaving. Which is it? I'm generally not good with "Nothing to see here. Move along" responses. Or maybe Bernadette Johnson of Enverus doesn't know wtf she's talking about?


the issue was always about gas. The problem is that liquids produced are associated with gas, sometimes with quite high GOR which means you need to deal with the gas. You can't flare it due to regulations, you can't store much of it so if you can't transport the gas you can't transport the associated oil/liquids, hence you stop drilling wells or you give the gas away free (which they have been doing).

As to Enversus I do not know anything about them nor Ms Johnson so can't comment on her views. I simply look and see what the companies who monitor shale activity are saying such as RBN Energy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 21:33:28

shortonoil wrote:
"We are massively oversupplied," said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average."


Thanks Yoshua, I was trying to figure that out a while ago. His figures sound about right. I never double checked my figures because important things came up to interrupt me. Trump came out with his "lock and load" comment; [thank you John Wayne]; the dog caught a case of kennel cough, and the cat tore the foil out of the grill. All equally significant events.

All of this commotion because a Saudi tripped over an extension cord. It was placed there by one of their $2 a day Ethiopian slaves. We had some shortage scares about 10 years ago when the Colonial sprung a leak. At that time we calculated that it would take a US inventory of about 150 mb of Total Product before shortages of finished product appeared in the retail market. If the Saudi lost 5.7 mb/d, and the US uses its weighted product average of that, it will take a little over a year before shortages begin to show up in the US retail market -- assuming we couldn't replace 1 mb/d. If that happens we fire the US military.

Let's send GE over there to fix the damn plant. They really need the business.

I will pay my fair share. I have a brand new 10¢ piece right here. If the plant is not fixed by January !, 2021 we will send Trump in person. If the Saudi don't have enough aerial defense, after buying $20 billion in US hardware, to stop a few drones Ratheon has a $10 billion system that will fix them right up.

This is well beyond ridiculous.

So now you claim you're an expert on all things military too? Gee, why am I not surprised? 8)

Given the level of ACTUAL expertise you have shown re your chosen modes )previously) of oil and economics "expertise", frankly I strongly suspect you have no idea what you're talking about, as per usual. Just because Raytheon (which you can't even spell) has an anti-drone system, doesn't mean it can 100% cover an arbitrarily large area against any threat, BTW.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 01:14:36

At least two years ago Shortonoil said that the oil producing nations in the Middle East will soon start to bomb each others oil facilities to clear the oil glut, to raise the oil price.

Well...it didn't turn out exactly as shortonoil said. It turned out to be a little more complex, with OPEC+ cuts... sanctions...attacks on tankers...but now comes the bombings as well.

The Saudis are probably in panic mood right now. They can't protect them selves against a collapsing neighborhood that is dragging them down into the abyss.

The rest of the oil producing nations around the world are probably drinking champagne right now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 02:07:02

The financial markets hit the panic button over the Saudi attacks. The black swan event?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEnPjvlXYAY ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Sys1 » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 03:50:18

Yoshua : Please explain the meaning of your chart. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 09:29:47

Well...it didn't turn out exactly as shortonoil said. It turned out to be a little more complex, with OPEC+ cuts... sanctions...attacks on tankers...but now comes the bombings as well.


The energy equations tell us "what" has to happen; they just don't tell us "how" it will happen. Nothing tells us "when" it will happen. Second guessing the actions of a troop of schizophrenic monkeys has never been developed into a high art form; to say nothing of a science.

The market is pricing in 5mb/d of production at about $6 a barrel. Which tells us that when all the world's petroleum supply finally does disappear it will be worth $120. Wall Street is hardly even going to notice that the stuff is gone? Someone thought that might cause a recession.

That $6 a barrel will impact US GDP by about $145 billion a year. On a $20.4 trillion GDP Wall Street sees that as a nothing burger. Wall Street's myopic view is almost legendary. Most of them believe that oil is an eternally forming substance that grows on a tree. They haven't yet discovered that the old tree has a rotten core, and its leaves are falling off. When the crazy monkeys burn down what's left of the tree, then Wall Street will happily go long on lumber. Until then they will religiously hold to the believe that central banks can print trees, even as its branches fall through their roof.

Oil Prices Plunge On Reports Saudi Output Levels Normalized With 2-3 Weeks
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/o ... -2-3-weeks

Apparently, Amazon's drone home delivery of a defective barbeque grill was under warranty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 09:56:51

Just because Raytheon (which you can't even spell) has an anti-drone system, doesn't mean it can 100% cover an arbitrarily large area against any threat, BTW.


Roc is back to running his spelling bee! As a sixth grade reading teacher he might have been great. At everything else, he gets his diphthongs all messed up. Does misspelling Ratheon mean that I should expect a cruise missile to show up in my back yard at any time. OH MY!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 11:37:46

Cog, its getting worse every day.

Garage Sales everywhere. For Sale signs everywhere. Police sirens going constantly. The only way I can keep ahead of traffic going past the dead coal plants is at full speed in my F-150 of 110 mph. Its Mad Max2 already.

The beauty queen at the Ford Dealership keeps phoning me up that I have to buy a beautiful orange Mustang Fastback or else she will lose her "job" clicking on her gizmo and saying "How can I direct your call". She insists: "We have to sell these vehicles".

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 11:47:29

Roc is back to running his spelling bee!


and short is demonstrating his complete lack of reading comprehension. It was Outcast Searcher who sent that message....and significantly you avoided debating his point that their anti-drone system can't cover 100% of an arbitrarily large area.

But good job at continuing to dispel any claims you aren't a muppet.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 17 Sep 2019, 11:52:15

Cog, Chloe the MBA Chick at the local bank who is screwing her dog named Rocky denied my request for a 20 billion loan to buy 70 Boeing Jets and crash them all into Frances nuclear reactors to create a massive radioactive cloud over Paris.

Then Paris is evacuated, bulldozed over where the valuable Shale Gas is located right underneath Paris.

Thats the only way to save Europe.

And you know what she says? "You're not feeling well, are you?"
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