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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 14:50:00

Senior military analyst: Saudi retaliation against Iranian targets imminent


Time to top off my preps.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 15:52:23

The drones or missiles that targeted Abqaiq hit their targets by coming in from the West.

This was precision targeting. From Yemen it's 1200 kilometers and from Iraq it's 600 kilometers to Abqaiq.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEh-EKoXkAA ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 15:57:44

Yoshua wrote:The drones or missiles that targeted Abqaiq hit their targets by coming in from the West.

This was precision targeting. From Yemen it's 1200 kilometers and from Iraq it's 600 kilometers to Abqaiq.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEh-EKoXkAA ... me=900x900



Looks like it was from the Iranian’s in Iraq. If SA responds, buckle up.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 16:38:10

Arab armies are notoriously bad at combined arms combat. The Saudis in particular.

Targeting oil or gas tanks is completely stupid. Much better targets in a oil terminal.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 18:43:51

Cog wrote:Arab armies are notoriously bad at combined arms combat. The Saudis in particular.

Targeting oil or gas tanks is completely stupid. Much better targets in a oil terminal.

Either way, if conflict like this escalates seriously, and the opponents DO start targeting critical points that take a long time and lots of resources to repair -- this kind of thing could actually seriously raise oil prices, worst case.

Now, how much or how long is the question.

Despite doomtard claims, the world can clearly live with $100ish oil for years, even if it's inconvenient, as was demonstrated in mid 2010 - mid 2014.

The top stories I see with a quick search show the main oil futures (WTI and Brent) increasing about 12 to 13 percent on the news thus far. Obviously, that can change significantly as events develop, depending on how the news trend looks re supply impact and timing.

Oh, and for the ETP worshipers, funny how supply and demand and pricing reflects economic reality and theory, and not some magical "maximum" affordable price point made up by someone who ignores inflation over 6 decades and makes a lot of stuff up re the oil business.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 18:46:04

US crude futures are up over 11% so far, over $60. Not so bad yet :shock:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 18:49:26

Goldman Goes "Lehman Weekend" On Oil: Expects Chaos When Trading Reopens

Following the events in Saudi Arabia, well-informed market participants expect that oil prices may increase by $5-10 per barrel in the Asian session.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/g ... ng-reopens

$5 a barrel; we are doomed! Modern civilization is going to collapse tomorrow afternoon, right after Goldman has sold all its long positions. Goldman is a $trillion vulture, in a suit.

Has Goldman ever mentioned that existing reserves are being pumped, but not being replaced? They are still trying to figure out how to trade it so that it screws everyone, but them!


WTI is trading
WTI is up $6.21 a barrel. At least we now know what half of Aramco is worth. In other words if Ghawar disappeared it would cost $12.42 a barrel. The world can survive without Saudi Arabia. Someone call Trump.

The $100/ barrel oil thingy? WTI went up $6.21, not $45. Then fell back to $6.16. Like I said previously, "Then again, this may have been an Amazon drone home delivery carrying a defective barbeque grill?"

The US has enough oil to last for more than a century, although it doesn't yet have the technology that it needs to use it. That is even thou that technology already exists in its infancy; it has just not been deployed. It would be ironic if the the most profitable venture in history got blown off because someone couldn't understand thermodynamics. All that would be needed is an internal combustion engine, that can burn crude directly out of the ground, without having to go through the refining process. When it arrives US oil companies will be partying like its 1962. Fuel will go down 30% in price. If trump attacks Iran over Saudi Arabia he is an idiot. He may be, but whom ever is really pulling the White House strings, isn't.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 15 Sep 2019, 19:05:12

shortonoil wrote: Goldman Goes "Lehman Weekend" On Oil: Expects Chaos When Trading Reopens

Following the events in Saudi Arabia, well-informed market participants expect that oil prices may increase by $5-10 per barrel in the Asian session.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/g ... ng-reopens

$5 a barrel; we are doomed! Modern civilization is going to collapse tomorrow afternoon, right after Goldman has sold all its long positions. Goldman is a $trillion vulture, in a suit.

Has Goldman ever mentioned that existing reserves are being pumped, but not being replaced? They are still trying to figure out how to trade it so that it screws everyone, but them!


WTI is trading
WTI is up $6.21 a barrel. At least we now know what half of Aramco is worth. In other words if Ghawar disappeared it would cost $12.42 a barrel. The world can survive without Saudi Arabia. Someone call Trump.

The $100/ barrel oil thingy? WTI went up $6.21, not $45. Then fell back to $6.16. Like I said previously, ...

The more you comment, the less you demonstrate you know about economics. :shock:

Congrats! :roll:

The short term pop in WTI has very little to do with what Ghawar's long term production is worth. If you knew ANYTHING about economics, you'd know that, of course. But thanks for playing. :lol:

No one said anything about oil having risen to $100. You need badly to work on your reading comprehension. (My comment was that despite all the doomtards like you claiming otherwise, $100 is an inconvenience. The world economy and oil prices from mid 2010 to mid 2014 trump any babblespeak you spew to the contrary, BTW.

When you're using sarcasm, try using an emoticon or /s or something. Otherwise, given your tendency to constantly claim doom and be wrong, someone might think you're serious. :idea:

As rockdoc has endlessly pointed out with actual real world facts re the oil production world, oil production is generally being replaced. And more than replaced, given how technology keeps raising global reserves over time, as a trend.

But I know -- doomer-babble rejects any good news, and claims it's a conspiracy. :o
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 02:09:16

"We are massively oversupplied," said Christyan Malek, head of oil and gas research for Europe, Middle East and Africa at J.P. Morgan, adding it would take five months of a 5 million-bpd outage to take global crude supply levels back to a 40-year normal average."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 02:29:58

The WTI would have to rise above USD 70 to break resistance and this triangle of doom.

WTI USD 60.21

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EEcUXQTXsAA ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 03:20:00

The world wasn't doing just fine with 100 oil. Remember the Arab Spring and the eurocrisis? The ECB just announced another round of QE and Syria and Yemen are still torn apart from wars that are destabilising the Middle East.

After the oil price collapsed some weaker oil producing nations started to tank: Venezuela, Iran, Algeria...

The U.S is doing fine as long as it owns the world reserve currency and can absorb trade deficits and fiscal deficits.

Try to keep an open mind about the world outside of U.S borders.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 08:31:25

Yoshua wrote:The world wasn't doing just fine with 100 oil. Remember the Arab Spring and the eurocrisis?


Neither were caused by $100 oil.

BTW, last time oil was pricey the main beneficiary was the fracking industry. Any price spike in the middle east will benefit the fracking industry once more. And you don't have the data to backup your $70 triangle-of-doom figure.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 08:47:17

The more you comment, the less you demonstrate you know about economics.

Congrats!

The short term pop in WTI has very little to do with what Ghawar's long term production is worth. If you knew ANYTHING about economics, you'd know that, of course. But thanks for playing.


It is amazing what a complete total idiot you are. A wonder of the modern world! IQ scales apparently also have a negative component? But be careful, the Chinese like Jack Ass almost as much as pig.

WTI $60.41 morning, Brent isn't moving much either; so blowing up Saudi Arabia didn't have much impact on the oil market. The reason for this is that the world economy is shutting down. We are close to the end of the oil age. There still remains an overwhelming consensus that it has something to do with central bank activities, and trade tariffs. The central banks, and tariffs are the effect, not the cause. There is a solution, but as long as we fail to recognize the problem that solution will never be realized. As long as oil is counted by the barrel, rather than the work it can preform the world will continue on its journey into the abyss!


"Something else has to be restraining trade well beyond any Chinese goods heading toward the United States waiting to be further tariffed. This is widespread, very close to universal."

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/demys ... r-shortage


The world can no longer pump enough oil to pay its bills.
Data sources: EIA, IMF, World Bank
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 12:20:53

WTI $60.41 morning, Brent isn't moving much either; so blowing up Saudi Arabia didn't have much impact on the oil market. The reason for this is that the world economy is shutting down.


Horsecrap. The reason is there is oil in reserve in the US, the US can increase production rapidly (there are still many wells sitting in the frac log) and the Saudis have stated they will get back 30% of the lost production (1.5 MMbbl/d) by end of Monday and will be restored to full capacity shortly. But, of course, stick with your conspiracy theory....you might get together with your cohort Armagedon and see if you can join that conspiracy theory with his 911 conspiracy theory. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 13:04:17

rockdoc123 wrote:.........

Horsecrap. The reason is there is oil in reserve in the US, the US can increase production rapidly (there are still many wells sitting in the frac log) ........ :roll:


Then you need to call these guys and get them straightened out:

....... "There does seem to be this idea in the public's mind that shale can ramp up supply immediately, and that is simply not the case," said Bernadette Johnson of Enverus, an energy data analytics company.
Shale producers rely on multiple individual wells, and increasing production means new rigs, completions crews and infrastructure. That's much more difficult than pumping extra oil from a traditional crude field.

On top of that, US operators have a limited ability to increase production in the massive Permian Basin because of infrastructure bottlenecks.
According to Johnson, a number of pipelines and terminals are under construction. But with the current infrastructure, shale producers couldn't move much more crude out of the Permian even if they wanted to.

"The infrastructure simply isn't there yet to get it to the coast, and the coastal export terminals couldn't handle it either," she said, adding that there are 1,000 wells in the region that have been drilled but not yet completed.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/16/investin ... index.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 13:05:12

Horsecrap. The reason is there is oil in reserve in the US, the US can increase production rapidly


More fiction and fact from rocs not so accurate Almanac. That statement is double horsecrap direct from the circus pony's mouth. US can increase production from where? Shale or Alaska. Maybe all those deep water developments that got canned 10 years ago. What a load! The US is tapped out with the rest of the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Sys1 » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 13:21:12

They can "increase production" from strategic reserves. :razz:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 13:27:03

Yoshua wrote:The world wasn't doing just fine with 100 oil. Remember the Arab Spring and the eurocrisis? The ECB just announced another round of QE and Syria and Yemen are still torn apart from wars that are destabilising the Middle East.

After the oil price collapsed some weaker oil producing nations started to tank: Venezuela, Iran, Algeria...

The U.S is doing fine as long as it owns the world reserve currency and can absorb trade deficits and fiscal deficits.

Try to keep an open mind about the world outside of U.S borders.

Try to get a TINY clue re real world economic data as reported in the mainstream, instead of constantly cherry picking any doom-sounding tidbit you can find. Else, you continue to have no credibility re economics at all.

In 2010 through 2014 GLOBAL GDP was growing rather steadily, and just fine -- not just the US, which also did just fine.

Try to keep an open mind about objective reality, instead of pretending to be zerohedge, but without even posting links or stating any data points.

But thanks for the "great advice". :roll:

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 13:36:21

Sys1 wrote:They can "increase production" from strategic reserves. :razz:

Also, it pisses me off the gnat brained (i.e. mindless knee-jerk) thinking re using the SPR seemingly every time there's a small issue that moves oil 10 or 15%. It's supposed to be for real supply emergencies, not short term political gain.

This goes for all the administrations which tended to do this -- not just Trump, BTW.

It's supposed to be for EMERGENCIES when the supplies of oil are seriously disrupted over time, and it causes major disruption in the domestic market place.

Now, this COULD become such a problem, IF it escalates dramatically over time. But we won't know that for weeks or months.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 16 Sep 2019, 14:01:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Try to get a TINY clue re real world economic data as reported in the mainstream, instead of constantly cherry picking any doom-sounding tidbit you can find. Else, you continue to have no credibility re economics at all.

In 2010 through 2014 GLOBAL GDP was growing rather steadily, and just fine -- not just the US, which also did just fine.

Try to keep an open mind about objective reality, instead of pretending to be zerohedge, but without even posting links or stating any data points.

But thanks for the "great advice". :roll:

https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg


Accusing others of cherry picking, then using GDP as your only metric, is clearly a case of Pot calling Kettle black, especially in light of extraordinary measures taken (and ongoing) to force GDP into positive territory. Massive central bank intervention, ZIRP, NIRP, etc, especially in the Euro Zone and China, tend to sour any GDP figures you want to cite. But go ahead and make a case for unlimited central bank interventions as a cure, rather than a mask for symptoms of deeper systemic predicaments. Appearances are everything in a trumped up world, eh?
Me? I see it like giving a patient with lung disease drugs and an oxygen bottle and saying all is well because he was able to make it to the mailbox and back today.

"Look! Old Bob's doing so much better!"
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