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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 12:45:49

The financial channels are now admitting that the US economy IS NOT as strong as we are being told and NEEDS stimulus...


They are certainly correct about the first part. The media has been totally complicit in the great American "snow job", but they are now going to tell us the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, so help me the Great Orange Pumpkin; Sure!

On the second part, the stimulus thingy, did they mention where that is going to come from. During 2018 it took $7.31 in new debt to generate a $1 of additional GDP. The media probably believes that the FED can do it with Green Stamps?

They didn't happen to mention the Debt Volcano we are sitting on; did they?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 12:51:18

POOF! 20% of the jobs the BLS claimed were created from 3/18 to 3/19 did not exist according to the IRS. And thus, the problem w/Census Bureau data collection and seasonally adjusted estimation and regression model estimates -


https://www.alhambrapartners.com/2019/0 ... e-existed/


They manipulate nearly everything and the sheep believe it all.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 23 Aug 2019, 15:26:41

POOF! 20% of the jobs the BLS claimed were created from 3/18 to 3/19 did not exist according to the IRS. And thus, the problem w/Census Bureau data collection and seasonally adjusted estimation and regression model estimates -


Think I'll stick with the Models. Even if by some small chance they are incorrect, they are not intentionally so.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 00:39:06

This is not the first time I have seen the following comment in the BBC financial reporting, which implies that the constant FED bashing is down to Trump knowing that a downturn is on its way and needs someone other than himself to blame.

Some analysts think Mr Trump has been ratcheting up his criticism of Mr Powell so he can blame the fed chair if the US economy goes into downturn.

Karen Petrou, managing partner of Federal Financial Analytics, told the BBC earlier this week: "Mr Trump doesn't care what rates are. He cares about who voters think is to blame for slower growth and market turmoil, and he is determined to be sure it isn't him," she said.

"What's an astute politician to do? Find a fall guy distrusted by Republicans, Democrats, independents, populists, and progressives."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49452366

So should we take each anti-Powell (or anti-Powel) tweet as a sign that the administration is worried about a down turn in the economy?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 00:59:42

EdwinSm wrote:So should we take each anti-Powell (or anti-Powel) tweet as a sign that the administration is worried about a down turn in the economy?

Well, each president I can remember since Reagan, who was the first president when I started paying attention to "adult" things, has jawboned about what the Fed should do (always wanting lower rates), at some point. (NOT frequently like Trump, and not in the signature Trump attacking style).

Obviously, in each case, the purpose was hoping to have stronger economic numbers for their legacy, DESPITE the fact that the Fed is SUPPOSED to be independent.

So yeah, either concern about a down turn, or wanting a ready made excuse for why growth / jobs, etc. weren't as strong as all the claims sounds like a good bet.

After all, there is an election coming, and if Trump doesn't lay off on the China trade hostility thing, he's asking to have the economic winds in his face instead of at his back, which will be a "Yuuuuuge" problem for Trump getting re-elected if he let's it go too far.

Note: That doesn't imply the doom the fast-crashers are salivating about -- it implies slower growth or even a recession is possible -- just as the professional economists are talking about.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 02:34:32

Presidents for 40 years have ignored China's theft of our intellectual property and their tariffs and unfair trade practices directed at us. . Trump isn't going to ignore it. It worth the pain to our economy to win this war with China on the trade issue. What people don't understand is that China is at war with the USA in an economic sense of the word. Tucking tail and running from this confrontation is what past presidents have done. Not this president.

Trump was correct to criticize the Fed. Their raised rates consistently since he was elected to fight inflation which did not even exist. Whether we need to cut rates is another question. I don't think we do right now. The underlying economy is still good regardless of the doomer's predictions. Wage growth is positive, unemployment is very low, inflation low, and most companies are making reasonable profits. Even the oil industry is busy exploring and drilling away.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby marmico » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 03:19:17

During 2018 it took $7.31 in new debt to generate a $1 of additional GDP.


More crap from Bozo Bedford. What an effing retard after it has been pointed out multiple times. The US nonfinancial debt to GDP ratio has been ~2.5:1 from 2009 to 2018. It will be approximately the same in 2019.

There have been 2 major credit impulses in the US in the last 70 years - 1980-1990 and 2000-2010.

https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries ... 017&i=43.5
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 09:12:22

ICYMI from JP Morgan: ‘we believe the US dollar could become vulnerable to a loss of value relative to a more diversified basket of currencies, including gold.’

JP recommends its clients to change their gold hodlings from 0 to 5 % of their fx portfolio. privatebank.jpmorgan.com/gl/en/insights…
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 09:14:02

So should we take each anti-Powell (or anti-Powel) tweet as a sign that the administration is worried about a down turn in the economy?


World debt formation is completely out of control! It is a runaway train heading down the mountain side. The FED, and the administration can read a graph!

The US is attempting to repatriate its currency before this situation blows. The tariffs, the calls of currency manipulation, and use of sanctions are there for one purpose, and that is to bring US dollars back to the US. 62% of the world's foreign held debt is denominated in US dollars, and every one of those dollars is claim on US wealth. According to the IMF, the US is now repatriating its currency at a rate of $4 trillion a year; the present rate of capital flows out of the rest of the world, and into the US.

The world has burned through 87% of its usable oil resource. The last 13% will be an order of magnitude more expensive to produce than the first 13%. Most of the world is going to collapse, and if the US does not get its currency home it will be insuring a large part of a world wide default.

Watch what they do; not what they say! The Trump/ Powell rhetoric is a political devise to keep the public entertained while they prepare for the Brave New World. Trump needs domestic support while he applies sanctions, and tariffs. Powell needs time to get the FED's currency home. The US now has the world's only sovereign debt with a + in front of the rate. Dollars will keep flowing back to the US, and out flows will continue to be restricted. A dollar shortage is sure to bring about the inevitable; WAR!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 11:00:44

Trump was correct to criticize the Fed. Their raised rates consistently since he was elected to fight inflation which did not even exist. Whether we need to cut rates is another question. I don't think we do right now. The underlying economy is still good regardless of the doomer's predictions. Wage growth is positive, unemployment is very low, inflation low, and most companies are making reasonable profits. Even the oil industry is busy exploring and drilling away.


I agree entirely that the economic rationale for lowering rates really isn't there, the problem is the markets are responding very negatively to the trade war and the potential for even further trade wars. Trump is suggesting the problem is the Fed when in fact the market is reacting to the trade war and it's complete unpredictability, we saw that when the last Fed correction did nothing to improve the market. Not sure what his end game is...either he has a plan where he will suddenly pull a rabbit out of the hat before the economy spirals into an early recession or he is basically stupid. The fact that he apparently only wants advisors who agree with him rather than those who are experts in economics is a bit of a worry. The signs from companies in the US is that the trade war is beginning to hurt them, there has not been a return of companies to the US as was expected and the trade war contagion is spreading into other parts of the world's economy as would be expected when the two biggest economies are fighting it out. And the idea that the additional tariffs do not cost the US public anything is basically a huge pile of BS as has been pointed out by countless economists and financial analysts. Although the issue with theft of tech is important this trade war is not going to stop it. The Chinese have been stealing tech for decades, it is rampant in the oil and gas industry. But threatening to punish them with tariffs just isn't going to stop them. The only way to do that is to improve industrial protection on such tech, make it theft-proof which is a huge challenge but should be doable. To keep a fox out of your henhouse you either need to build a fox proof hen house (doable) or kill him (in the case of the China trade war this is not an option), negotiation is a waste of time. I also don't think it helps that the Trump gov't keeps changing its mind on what they want, one day it is making sure China doesn't steal tech the next day it is making sure China buys US soy products the next day it is making sure China keeps its exchange rate high. Having spent a number of years negotiating with one of the Chinese National oil companies subs I can assure you that they do not respond well to a negotiation strategy that waivers from one topic to the next, forever changing strategy, it might work in the "Art of the Deal" (i.e. keep your opponent guessing) philosophy but it is anathema to the Chinese. Unfortunately, I think the whole trade war is more about the US not wanting to cede the top spot in global economies to the Chinese which to my mind is at odds with looking out for what is best for the average US citizen. Hubris usually doesn't put money in your pocket.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 11:21:42

The Worthless Junk Currency is Now Collapsing....

McDonalds: "Would you like some boiled "Federal" "Reserve" Notes. Thats all the menu is"

Hottie at the Bankrupt Grocery Store: "If there is nothing to freeload on then life isn't worth living"
SL: "Do you mean Press the Red Button?"
Hottie: "Whatever"

Total Collapse is Imminent.
Space Aliens: "Earthlings are Thermodynamic Dunces"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 11:50:03

rockdoc123 wrote:
Trump was correct to criticize the Fed. Their raised rates consistently since he was elected to fight inflation which did not even exist. Whether we need to cut rates is another question. I don't think we do right now. The underlying economy is still good regardless of the doomer's predictions. Wage growth is positive, unemployment is very low, inflation low, and most companies are making reasonable profits. Even the oil industry is busy exploring and drilling away.


I agree entirely that the economic rationale for lowering rates really isn't there, the problem is the markets are responding very negatively to the trade war and the potential for even further trade wars. Trump is suggesting the problem is the Fed when in fact the market is reacting to the trade war and it's complete unpredictability, we saw that when the last Fed correction did nothing to improve the market. Not sure what his end game is...either he has a plan where he will suddenly pull a rabbit out of the hat before the economy spirals into an early recession or he is basically stupid. The fact that he apparently only wants advisors who agree with him rather than those who are experts in economics is a bit of a worry. The signs from companies in the US is that the trade war is beginning to hurt them, there has not been a return of companies to the US as was expected and the trade war contagion is spreading into other parts of the world's economy as would be expected when the two biggest economies are fighting it out. And the idea that the additional tariffs do not cost the US public anything is basically a huge pile of BS as has been pointed out by countless economists and financial analysts. Although the issue with theft of tech is important this trade war is not going to stop it. The Chinese have been stealing tech for decades, it is rampant in the oil and gas industry. But threatening to punish them with tariffs just isn't going to stop them. The only way to do that is to improve industrial protection on such tech, make it theft-proof which is a huge challenge but should be doable. To keep a fox out of your henhouse you either need to build a fox proof hen house (doable) or kill him (in the case of the China trade war this is not an option), negotiation is a waste of time. I also don't think it helps that the Trump gov't keeps changing its mind on what they want, one day it is making sure China doesn't steal tech the next day it is making sure China buys US soy products the next day it is making sure China keeps its exchange rate high. Having spent a number of years negotiating with one of the Chinese National oil companies subs I can assure you that they do not respond well to a negotiation strategy that waivers from one topic to the next, forever changing strategy, it might work in the "Art of the Deal" (i.e. keep your opponent guessing) philosophy but it is anathema to the Chinese. Unfortunately, I think the whole trade war is more about the US not wanting to cede the top spot in global economies to the Chinese which to my mind is at odds with looking out for what is best for the average US citizen. Hubris usually doesn't put money in your pocket.


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 16:28:42

Thanks for contributing exactly nothing to the conversation StarvingLion. Its posts like yours that make the PeakOil forum what it is.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 24 Aug 2019, 20:16:57

Cog wrote:Presidents for 40 years have ignored China's theft of our intellectual property and their tariffs and unfair trade practices directed at us. . Trump isn't going to ignore it. It worth the pain to our economy to win this war with China on the trade issue. What people don't understand is that China is at war with the USA in an economic sense of the word. Tucking tail and running from this confrontation is what past presidents have done. Not this president.

Trump was correct to criticize the Fed. Their raised rates consistently since he was elected to fight inflation which did not even exist. Whether we need to cut rates is another question. I don't think we do right now. The underlying economy is still good regardless of the doomer's predictions. Wage growth is positive, unemployment is very low, inflation low, and most companies are making reasonable profits. Even the oil industry is busy exploring and drilling away.

The only place I think we disagree on this is whether the war is likely "winnable", or even productive for the US, based on the ham handed way Trump is pursuing it.

Some situations call for nuance, patience, and understanding things like culture (i.e. the Chinese don't like to be embarrassed). So I don't think that tweeting like a bull in a china shop and escalating things the way Trump is, is the way to go.

So I guess we'll see. Funny how the term "unfair" is thrown around in almost ALL issues -- it translates roughly, in adult talk, to "I don't like the other side's position".

Let's remember, for example, that the far left calls the high earnings high risk takers get as "unfair", etc. So I'm not inclined to think "unfair" even belongs any place in reasonably objective arguments or negotiations.

And it seems to me that the Fed has been trying to do its job the best it can, balancing the economy. Just because Trump (like other presidents) wants to juice the economy more, doesn't make it right. Remember -- you are the one reminding us of how strong the economy is, the full employment, etc. The Fed was going according to plan, to GRADUALLY raise interest rates back to a normal range, and GRADUALLY reduce the bloated balance sheet. Come on man, if it were a liberal in office you would be mad if that weren't being done in a strong economy.

Can't we be just a bit less partisan, re such issues?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Sun 25 Aug 2019, 00:04:59

I could call what China does as discriminatory trade practices instead of unfair trade practices if it suits you. It means the same thing. If China wants free access to our markets, we have every right to demand access to theirs. It's not partisan to suggest that no other president has made this an issue where Trump has made it a priority. Talking politely to the Chinese has got us nowhere with them. At least the bull in the China shop approach has focused attention on the topic instead of ignoring it.

There was no need for the Fed to raise rates in the way they were. A half point per year increase would have been fine instead of a full point per year as they were doing. There was no inflation going on for the Fed to fight. Now the Fed has been forced to reverse course because of their aggressive rate hikes. The market likes certainty and the Fed has not provided that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 25 Aug 2019, 08:42:25

"When the summer is over, ill winds will be blowing the SS Resistance close to the Reefs of Durham and Barr, when many of the ship’s officers — Ensigns Brannen, Clapper, Comey, Lynch, McCabe, and many others, perhaps even Admiral Obama — start perp-walking around the deck. What a mighty embarrassment that will be. The cry that “mistakes were made” won’t salvage party’s reputation as it founders and sinks. Glug glug."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... p-lost-sea

One survey showed that the number of firms planning to move at least some production outside of China had climbed above 40%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... ire-supply

Why Mark Carney Thinks The Dollar Can No Longer Be The World's Reserve Currency
While Jerome Powell's highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech was, in the words of Brean Capital's Russ Certo "underwhelming and anti-climatic", one couldn't say the same for the shocking luncheon speech by Bank of England's outgoing governor, Mark Carney, titled "The Growing Challenges for Monetary Policy in the current International Monetary and Financial System", where he dedicated no less than 23 pages to a stunning - for a central banker - cause: to describe why the dollar's  "destabilizing" reserve status role in the world economy has to end, and why central banks need to join together to create their own replacement reserve currency, one potentially tied to Facebook's new "stablecoin" Libra, although in reality any "Synthetic Hegemonic Currency" as Carney defined it would do.


The world is now reaching the end of the oil age. Political systems are breaking down, economies are coming apart, and monetary systems are coming unglued. The world will witness more changes in the coming five years than it has seen in centuries. Forced changes are rarely for the better!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 25 Aug 2019, 09:04:17

Dow 25,628.90 -623.34 -2.37%

S&P 500 2,847.11 -75.84 -2.59%

Nasdaq 7,751.77 -239.62 -3.00%

GlobalDow 2,896.78 -1.95 -0.07%

Gold 1,536.90 -0.70 -0.05%

Oil 53.97 -0.20 -0.37%

The next great depression is knocking at the door.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 25 Aug 2019, 19:50:20

https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-we-ar ... BbdGKe_GDg


The World Is Minutes From Total Collapse As Panic Across The Globe Escalates
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 25 Aug 2019, 20:57:35

onlooker wrote:https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-we-are-minutes-from-total-collapse-as-panic-across-the-globe-escalates/?fbclid=IwAR1dvo4aLsHQLU-sfGWlPHzm1VExlrxSdagk6xZNiLXhnt3CcBbdGKe_GDg

The World Is Minutes From Total Collapse As Panic Across The Globe Escalates

If only you doomer clowns weren't singing the same false song constantly, month after month, year after year, maybe your cries would have SOME credibility.

As it is, not so much.

Volatility happens. Short term panic over things like trade wars happens. Live with it, or don't invest in volatile things -- which includes gold and silver.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 26 Aug 2019, 04:14:56

The global money supply is contracting. A credit event has started.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EC4WO5wWsAE ... name=large
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