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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 00:48:30

Record low unemployment, strong wage growth, and low inflation sounds like doing alright to me.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 06:56:15

Record low unemployment, strong wage growth, and low inflation sounds like doing alright to me.


And - an exponentially exploding debt load that can only be maintained by cutting interest rates until the entire system stops functioning.

"If everything is going OK, you have obviously overlooked something."

No problem; just don't look down!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 07:12:30

Cog wrote:Record low unemployment, strong wage growth, and low inflation sounds like doing alright to me.



when you hear 100bps rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency payroll tax cuts from the trump admin in just one day - you know they know what’s coming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 11:47:34

Cog, whats happening to GE? Massive tankage. Cog said GE was a buy at $10. Now its $8.37.

Answer: Bankrupt

Look at the stock chart of Siemens the past 6 months. Its following GE into the abyss.

XOM nosediving straight into the ground. It will be a penny stock by 2023. Then the bankrupt gubamint will have to underwrite the Shale Nightmare and the Fresh Water Nightmare. Good luck funding EV's when that happens. Therefore, the EV Window will be no longer than 2020-2023. A big joke.

All socialist dictators, obviously.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 11:54:39

StarvingLion wrote:Cog, whats happening to GE? Massive tankage. Cog said GE was a buy at $10. Now its $8.37.

Answer: Bankrupt

Look at the stock chart of Siemens the past 6 months. Its following GE into the abyss.

XOM nosediving straight into the ground. It will be a penny stock by 2023. Then the bankrupt gubamint will have to underwrite the Shale Nightmare and the Fresh Water Nightmare. Good luck funding EV's when that happens. Therefore, the EV Window will be no longer than 2020-2023. A big joke.

All socialist dictators, obviously.


Chrysler and GM both went through bankruptcy and came out the other side as strong companies. If GE goes down this road, they will do the same. You obviously do not know how the process works.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 12:00:58

Cog wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:Cog, whats happening to GE? Massive tankage. Cog said GE was a buy at $10. Now its $8.37.

Answer: Bankrupt

Look at the stock chart of Siemens the past 6 months. Its following GE into the abyss.

XOM nosediving straight into the ground. It will be a penny stock by 2023. Then the bankrupt gubamint will have to underwrite the Shale Nightmare and the Fresh Water Nightmare. Good luck funding EV's when that happens. Therefore, the EV Window will be no longer than 2020-2023. A big joke.

All socialist dictators, obviously.


Chrysler and GM both went through bankruptcy and came out the other side as strong companies. If GE goes down this road, they will do the same. You obviously do not know how the process works.


Ah, The Rockman "Bankruptcy will make you stronger and Global Peak Oil will never happen" Bullshit routine once again. I think I'll try that with the local bank. "Hi everyone, I'm bankrupt and I've never been stronger"...Response from bank: "Skid Row thataway"

BTW,Where is The Rockman? Disappeared along with Coyne, eulenspiegel, and Carnot. I noticed that eulenspiegel said a few days ago on peakoilbarrel.com that electronic blips is real wealth....HAHAHAHAHA. He also believes in windmills, fusion, and the tooth fairy.

Speaking of peakoilbarrel.com, its a total lunatic asylum. Some idiot called 'Watcher' believes in endless fake money and that Eroei doesn't matter. The oil must flow as long as he doesn't have to pay for it. ROFL.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 12:08:13

Cog wrote:
StarvingLion wrote:Cog, whats happening to GE? Massive tankage. Cog said GE was a buy at $10. Now its $8.37.

Answer: Bankrupt

Look at the stock chart of Siemens the past 6 months. Its following GE into the abyss.

XOM nosediving straight into the ground. It will be a penny stock by 2023. Then the bankrupt gubamint will have to underwrite the Shale Nightmare and the Fresh Water Nightmare. Good luck funding EV's when that happens. Therefore, the EV Window will be no longer than 2020-2023. A big joke.

All socialist dictators, obviously.


Chrysler and GM both went through bankruptcy and came out the other side as strong companies. If GE goes down this road, they will do the same. You obviously do not know how the process works.


That attempted dodge was so lame it was worthy of Cog's psychopath Master and President. Methinks Cog graduated with honors from Trump U; mastered in Avoidance of Accountability and Character.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 13:09:02

That attempted dodge was so lame it was worthy of Cog's psychopath Master and President. Methinks Cog graduated with honors from Trump U; mastered in Avoidance of Accountability and Character


perhaps then you can explain to us how Rockman's explanation of how Chapter 11 actually works and how it has made stronger companies is wrong? That should be humorous, givne Rockman actually knows what he is talking about.
Having worked in the oil and gas industry for numerous decades I've seen my share of bankruptcy filings, there are only a handful that resulted in a company and it's assets disappearing, invariably they are either bought lock stock and barrel by another company which renegotiates the debt schedule or they renegotiate the loans with credit holders (lower rates and/or expanded debt repayment schedule).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 13:11:09

A ‘recession dashboard’ from Credit Suisse indicates the economy is nowhere near a recession

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/a-recession-dashboard-from-credit-suisse-indicates-the-economy-is-nowhere-near-a-recession.html

Credit Suisse created a “recession dashboard” in which the firm tracked the state of certain economic indicators at the start of each recession dating back to 1973.

Currently, the yield curve is the only economic indicator pointing to a recession.

In past recessions, indicators like inflation trends, job creation, credit performance, ISM manufacturing, earnings quality and the housing market were all recessionary or neutral, while the current state of the economy is telling a different story.

Economic data looks nothing like that of a recession, according to Credit Suisse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 13:31:20

rockdoc123 wrote:
That attempted dodge was so lame it was worthy of Cog's psychopath Master and President. Methinks Cog graduated with honors from Trump U; mastered in Avoidance of Accountability and Character


perhaps then you can explain to us how Rockman's explanation of how Chapter 11 actually works and how it has made stronger companies is wrong? That should be humorous, givne Rockman actually knows what he is talking about.
Having worked in the oil and gas industry for numerous decades I've seen my share of bankruptcy filings, there are only a handful that resulted in a company and it's assets disappearing, invariably they are either bought lock stock and barrel by another company which renegotiates the debt schedule or they renegotiate the loans with credit holders (lower rates and/or expanded debt repayment schedule).


Really? The discussion was about a looming recession. Chapter 11 is what happens when a recession hits and companies find themselves in trouble. So the evolution of the discussion seems to indicate that a recession may, indeed, be in the cards, and/or won't be a big deal.

At some point you guys are going to run out of Vaseline.....

.... and I notice that every time I mention the historically extreme combination of measures the global money wazoos have taken, and are taking, to avoid a recession at any cost (as I did upthread), you AVOID THE SUBJECT. Go ahead and tell me again how a recession isn't looming, then shift to how a recession isn't such a big deal (after all, there's Chapter 11 and all that), then explain why these people are willing to do pretty much anything to avoid one.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 14:10:15

The Ice Age Arrives: Average Sovereign Yield Outside The US Turns Negative For The First Time Ever
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... -time-ever

... meaning that any foreign investor who is desperate for even the smallest trace of positive yield has no choice but to come to the US, something Kyle Bass echoed earlier on CNBC: "US rates are going to zero because they are the only DMM government to still be paying a positive yield.


As the fossil fuel age comes to its conclusion, and the world economy continues to deteriorate in its wake, the debt will continue to rise, and interest rates must continue to fall. But, the neutral rate is still 2.5%, and that won't fall to zero for almost a decade. Kyle Bass is early, and Trump has rocks in his head. Reducing rates more than is required will shut off foreign cash flow, and wreck what remains of the US economy. If Trump attempts to force the FED into cutting beyond what is needed he should seek different employment. Otherwise he will be remembered as the President who preceded over the collapse of the most economically successful nation in history.

We can't stop depletion, and we can't stop the growth of debt, but we can avoid cheap political theatrics that are guaranteed to bring down the house before its time!


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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 16:36:35

Go ahead and tell me again how a recession isn't looming, then shift to how a recession isn't such a big deal (after all, there's Chapter 11 and all that), then explain why these people are willing to do pretty much anything to avoid one.


If you think that Chapter 11 filings only happen during recessions or just before them then indeed you do need to stay away from investing in the market. Basically, that is stupid and flies in the face of history. Companies file for Chapter 11 due mainly to changes in business conditions and in the case of the oil companies, it has to do with the drop in commodity prices which are a product of more supply than demand. US supply has continued to increase and OPEC/Russia collaboration have not done enough to lower supply to match demand. Demand has not decreased but instead, continue to increase albeit at a decreased rate year on year. Those oil companies entered into debt arrangements at higher prices and were anticipating higher prices yet. The low price environment left them in a spot where they could not continue to drill all of their commitments (needed to maintain land), pay debt carrying costs and retirement requirements and still remain a going concern. Hence they enter Chapter 11, renegotiate the debt payments and in many cases convert debt to equity.

I just posted an article which points out Credit Suisse methodology of tracking approaching recessions, their point is we aren't in one and the majority of measures that are normally negative in a recession or immediately preceding it are either positive or static.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 19:33:46

rockdoc123 wrote:
If you think that Chapter 11 filings only happen during recessions or just before them then indeed you do need to stay away from investing in the market. Basically, that is stupid and flies in the face of history. ........


I see again that you've resorted to misrepresenting what I've said in order to avoid my full point.. I guess you now want to pretend that Chapter 11 bankruptcies don't go up during recessions, and that there are no losers when those who put themselves on that path casually resort to that out (like your President has multiple times). Matters little to me.

When I need guidance I turn to the few folks I know who don't have skin in the game, have little ambition, are neither borrowers nor lenders, live humble lifestyles, and aren't prone to confirmation biases. And, no, I don't invest in your markets. I discovered decades ago that 1: I didn't like the company very much, 2: I didn't want to contribute to what amounts to the ongoing decimation of my children's children's future purely for personal gain and the illusion of security, and 3: I'm adept enough to live well without #1 and #2. That required re-evaluating what living well really means.

I'm pretty sure that a lot of folks will be making that transition in the decades to come. Maybe they won't even be commonly referred to as "consumers" by those of you who think you have a good handle on things. At some point I began seeing them as 'people'.

But go ahead and post your articles written by and for those who really don't have a viable Plan B and, as I said, are desperate to avoid the inevitable at any cost. One of us knows when someone is just trying to cover their own ass. The illusion of control.......
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Cog » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 01:49:32

Advocates of socialism and predictions(hope) for depressions sort of go hand in hand. Given the history of the doomers here commenting on other matters, there is a high degree of correlation.
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Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 04:22:32

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKeLrWMnjTs

X22Report

Gepubliceerd op 19 aug. 2019


Geabonneerd 463K

Check Out The X22 Report Spotlight YouTube Channel – https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1rn...

Join the X22 Report On Steemit: https://steemit.com/@x22report

Get economic collapse news throughout the day visit http://x22report.com
Report date: 08.19.2019

Boris Johnson is preparing to meet with France and Germany to discuss the BREXIT. The establishment will try to stop this, the fear meter is going to be off the chart as we get closer to Oct. NP and CS are rejecting the no-deal BREXIT. Trump is now calling on the Fed to cut rates and start stimulus. The [CB] [DS] are pushing the recession narrative.


Economy ups and downs are a tool for population control, who controls the big money flow is king.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 07:31:37

Cog wrote:Advocates of socialism and predictions(hope) for depressions sort of go hand in hand. Given the history of the doomers here commenting on other matters, there is a high degree of correlation.


Who said anything at all about socialism or depression?
Nobody.
Who is doing their best to paint discussions in false light?
That would be our resident gaslighter, Cog.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 11:48:01

"America" is so broke it can't afford a matchstick.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 14:52:09

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Record low unemployment, strong wage growth, and low inflation sounds like doing alright to me.


when you hear 100bps rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency payroll tax cuts from the trump admin in just one day - you know they know what’s coming

And yet in the real world news, the Fed is saying a string of rate cuts is NOT baked in, and NO MENTION of anything approaching 100 basis point rate cuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/federal ... eting.html

But of course, let's pretend that every time a president whines about the fed (and they ALL do it at some point, through they shouldn't), that it means rate cuts. And let's ESPECIALLY pretend that every time Trump makes an idle comment, it comes to pass. :roll:

Meanwhile, in the real world, we're about a year from when you were predicting doom re this thread's "market crash" you thought was in our face last fall, and recently I saw in this thread that you now don't expect it to crash until after the elections, and of course, no telling WHAT you will claim tomorrow or next week -- so what the hell good are your economic pronouncements anyway? (Aside from playing to the fast crash doomer crowd, endlessly, or course). :shock:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 15:23:18

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:Record low unemployment, strong wage growth, and low inflation sounds like doing alright to me.


when you hear 100bps rate cuts, quantitative easing, and emergency payroll tax cuts from the trump admin in just one day - you know they know what’s coming

And yet in the real world news, the Fed is saying a string of rate cuts is NOT baked in, and NO MENTION of anything approaching 100 basis point rate cuts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/federal ... eting.html

But of course, let's pretend that every time a president whines about the fed (and they ALL do it at some point, through they shouldn't), that it means rate cuts. And let's ESPECIALLY pretend that every time Trump makes an idle comment, it comes to pass. :roll:

Meanwhile, in the real world, we're about a year from when you were predicting doom re this thread's "market crash" you thought was in our face last fall, and recently I saw in this thread that you now don't expect it to crash until after the elections, and of course, no telling WHAT you will claim tomorrow or next week -- so what the hell good are your economic pronouncements anyway? (Aside from playing to the fast crash doomer crowd, endlessly, or course). :shock:




If you don’t think ZIRP and QE4 are coming, you aren’t paying attention.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 21 Aug 2019, 15:25:51

US created 501,000 fewer jobs in past year than previously reported - MarketWatch


Imagine the real numbers
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