Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 13:45:00

The #US Gross National #debt has jumped by $363 billion in the two weeks since President Trump signed the law that suspended the debt ceiling. That’s up by $1.01 trillion from 12 months ago.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/17/us-gr ... ecurities/


If this form of insanity was limited to just the US that would be bad enough. It isn't; the entire world has now contracted it. We have entered the event horizon of the great Debt Black Hole, and there is no turning around.

Peak Oil, ever expanding debt, monetary collapse; the future has gotten so dim it is getting hard to tell if there even is one?

Infinite growth on a finite planet just can't work, and we lost Plan B.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6357
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 14:14:10

shortonoil wrote:
The #US Gross National #debt has jumped by $363 billion in the two weeks since President Trump signed the law that suspended the debt ceiling. That’s up by $1.01 trillion from 12 months ago.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/17/us-gr ... ecurities/


If this form of insanity was limited to just the US that would be bad enough. It isn't; the entire world has now contracted it. We have entered the event horizon of the great Debt Black Hole, and there is no turning around.

Peak Oil, ever expanding debt, monetary collapse; the future has gotten so dim it is getting hard to tell if there even is one?

Infinite growth on a finite planet just can't work, and we lost Plan B.




Imagine the deficits when this recession takes hold. Probably 2+ trillion in 2020 and 3+ trillion in 2021. The printing presses will be running 24/7. I saw this coming last year, that’s why I went ‘all in’ on gold and silver. QE4 is coming and it will be larger than QE 1,2 and 3 combined. That’s why i’m thinking they can keep it together until after the election, unless there’s some type of trigger event. They have 4 rate cuts and a massive QE to work with. After that, all bets are off.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 20:23:37

Japan manufacturers turn pessimistic for first time since 2013: Reuters Tankan reut.rs/2OYeUJV

#globalmeltdown
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 11:04:34

Imagine the deficits when this recession takes hold. Probably 2+ trillion in 2020 and 3+ trillion in 2021. The printing presses will be running 24/7.


The FED has 2.5% (which is now the FFR, and the neutral interest rate) to work with. The world has coming, over the next year, an additional $48 trillion in debt, and that is to be piled on top of the mountain of existing debt. The printing of the central banks is limited by the amount that the credit markets can absorb, and that is equal to the cost of servicing the existing debt. That is $8 trillion a year. China will print at least half of that.

Of course, if the central banks actually knew how to stop a recession there would never have been one!

July CASS Freight Index™ Formally is “Signaling an Economic Contraction” / July Industrial Production, Manufacturing and Mining Declined on Top of Downside Revisions to Second-Quarter Activity / Annualized Quarterly Contraction in Second-Quarter Production Deepened from 1.2% (-1.2%) to 2.1% (-2.1%), Indicating a More-Intense Recession and Downside Revision to Second-Quarter GDP / Oil and Gas Drilling and Exploration Took a Hit /
http://www.shadowstats.com/

The US is now in a recession, and the rest of the world is on the fast track heading for the last Great Depression. The end of the oil age is near at hand, and all past memos, correlations, agreements, and expectations can be considered, null and void.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 6357
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 11:27:56

The US is now in a recession, and the rest of the world is on the fast track heading for the last Great Depression.


the accepted definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative GDP. Not decreased GDP growth but negative GDP. I realize your math skills may not be adequate enough to understand the difference. :roll:
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7228
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:32:39

rockdoc123 wrote:
The US is now in a recession, and the rest of the world is on the fast track heading for the last Great Depression.


the accepted definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative GDP. Not decreased GDP growth but negative GDP. I realize your math skills may not be adequate enough to understand the difference. :roll:

You're right of course, rockdoc.

Since when has shorty dealt in real world facts instead of made-up definitions, etc.?

And his most "effective" response, is to call people childish names when they point out such errors. As though that somehow changes the reality. 8)

I'm curious to see what is angle will be in, say, 2022, when global recession or not, oil is nowhere near $2, oil is still "affordable" to produce, and the ETP and its MAP are both smoking ruin -- clearly enough for even an ETP adherent to see.

I guess he'll have to quintuple the frequency of his name-calling to maintain credibility in his mind. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:36:06

shortonoil wrote:http://www.shadowstats.com/

The US is now in a recession, and the rest of the world is on the fast track heading for the last Great Depression. The end of the oil age is near at hand, and all past memos, correlations, agreements, and expectations can be considered, null and void.

Neither using doomer blogs, shadowstats, or zerohedge as your primary source of information makes you credible. Just blatantly making sh*t up, like calling slower growth "a recession", when no sane, credible economist agrees with you makes you bat-sh*t crazy, not credible. Endlessly ranting that the "end of the oil age" is near, makes you just dead wrong, year after year.

Don't you have anything productive to do?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:39:14

rockdoc123 wrote:
The US is now in a recession, and the rest of the world is on the fast track heading for the last Great Depression.


the accepted definition of a recession is two successive quarters of negative GDP. Not decreased GDP growth but negative GDP. I realize your math skills may not be adequate enough to understand the difference. :roll:




Not really true. If Q3 and Q4 have negative GDP, you can look back in early 2020 and realize the recession started in Q3 of 2019.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:40:02

Armageddon wrote:
shortonoil wrote:Imagine the deficits when this recession takes hold. Probably 2+ trillion in 2020 and 3+ trillion in 2021. The printing presses will be running 24/7. I saw this coming last year, that’s why I went ‘all in’ on gold and silver. QE4 is coming and it will be larger than QE 1,2 and 3 combined. That’s why i’m thinking they can keep it together until after the election, unless there’s some type of trigger event. They have 4 rate cuts and a massive QE to work with. After that, all bets are off.

And of course, inflation went just bananas as Obama pretty much doubled the national debt during his tenure. :roll:

Oh, wait. Maybe you don't have a great handle on predicting inflation over time, just because you can say "debt and deficits". :shock:

But I know - in your mind, being wrong a lot means you'll always be right. :!:

Wow. If only such prescience worked in the real world. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:47:38

Armageddon wrote:US gov borrows $2 to make $1. This ponzi implodes when interest expense becomes $1 also. Currently 2/3rds of way there. A recession will put it over the line. The US will then have to default. A country doesn’t default through traditional means. It defaults through its currency.

But in the real world, the US government interest expense is under 10% of the federal budget.

If things go badly, the net US interest expense could reach about 3% of the US GDP by 2028.

https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2018/11/we-wi ... l-programs

So while things aren't good re the trend (and haven't been for quite a few decades, BTW), can you concede that the wild arm waving your project, that the economy is about to "collapse" REAL SOON NOW, is likely just a bit overdone?

Or is your game just to "call it" constantly, and then if you're right in 20 or 50 or 100 years, your ancestors will brag that you were correct?

If only a broken clock weren't right twice a day, that might be a meaningful strategy. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:50:57

Trump begging for a 1% rate cut and more QE.

He knows where we are headed.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 14:58:18

With 2% of rate cuts to work with and more QE, I don’t think we’ll see a recession until after the election. The printing presses will be running 24/7 to make sure of it. GDP will stay around 1-2% for now.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 17:26:07

Not really true. If Q3 and Q4 have negative GDP, you can look back in early 2020 and realize the recession started in Q3 of 2019.


each previous recession (as indicated in the shaded areas) coincides with a period of negative Real GDP. There are no examples of recessions corresponding with positive GDP growth.

Image
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7228
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 17:38:03

rockdoc123 wrote:
Not really true. If Q3 and Q4 have negative GDP, you can look back in early 2020 and realize the recession started in Q3 of 2019.


each previous recession (as indicated in the shaded areas) coincides with a period of negative Real GDP. There are no examples of recessions corresponding with positive GDP growth.

Image




You missed the point.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 18:31:35

rockdoc123 wrote:
each previous recession (as indicated in the shaded areas) coincides with a period of negative Real GDP. There are no examples of recessions corresponding with positive GDP growth.

Image


Show me examples of previous cycles where so much funny money (QE, various stimulus packages, tax cuts, interest rate cuts, debt accumulation, $trillions in economic tampering, etc) has been deployed globally to hold downturns at bay. Or maybe you want to pretend we haven't been in uncharted economic territory for some time now. It's clear that the growth monkeys and magic money meisters are desperate to keep consumption and faux growth moving along at any cost. Says a lot. The order of the day is more consumption, consumption, consumption! Just ask your President.
The planet and reality are utterly indifferent to our plight.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2957
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 18:37:29

WSJ: Another economic warning sign: RV sales are slipping
Elkhart, Ind., is flashing a warning sign that a recession could be just ahead.

Capital of the country’s recreational-vehicle industry, the northern Indiana city and the surrounding area are watched by economists and investors for early indications of waning consumer demand for luxury items, often the first sign of economic anxiety.

Shipments of recreational vehicles to dealers have fallen about 20% so far this year, after a 4.1% drop last year, according to data from the RV Industry Association. Multiyear drops in shipments have preceded the last three recessions.

“The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are,” said Michael Hicks, an economist at Ball State University, in Muncie, Ind. Hicks says softening consumer demand for RVs coupled with rising vehicle prices due to tariffs suggests the economy is either in a recession or soon headed for one.

About 65% of recreational vehicles in the U.S. are made in the Elkhart region, as well as many of the tires, wheels, appliances and furniture that goes into them. Elkhart ships its RVs to dealers, who are careful to avoid carrying too much inventory and pull back orders when they sense cooling desire for a luxury item like an RV.

[link to gazette.com (secure)]
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 21:27:02

White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in effort to reverse weakening economy


Trump says, “I’ll do anything and everything to make sure there’s no recession before the election”.

Ok, he didn’t really say that.....but we know he thinks it
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 5332
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 21:32:51

Armageddon wrote:
rockdoc123 wrote:
Not really true. If Q3 and Q4 have negative GDP, you can look back in early 2020 and realize the recession started in Q3 of 2019.


each previous recession (as indicated in the shaded areas) coincides with a period of negative Real GDP. There are no examples of recessions corresponding with positive GDP growth.

Image


You missed the point.

He may have missed the point, but when you are presented the basic FACTS about the definition of a recession, and then respond with "not really true", you are missing reality, which kind of diminishes your "point".

Which is consistent with how you apparently miss anything but negative cherry picking points for the economy.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 7249
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Mon 19 Aug 2019, 22:07:35

Armageddon wrote:White House officials eyeing payroll tax cut in effort to reverse weakening economy


Trump says, “I’ll do anything and everything to make sure there’s no recession before the election”.

Ok, he didn’t really say that.....but we know he thinks it


'.....didn't really say that....'

Aug 19, 2019 10:26:20 AM - .....The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!

Aug 19, 2019 10:26:20 AM - Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election. Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world...
http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2957
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby EdwinSm » Tue 20 Aug 2019, 00:18:02

I think we can relax now as a high placed source recently said:
"I don't think we're having a recession. We're doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money."

So right from the top we have that reassuring statement, then a demand for a cut in interest rates of 1% and more money printing implying that the economy is not doing tremendously well. So maybe there is something to worry about after all.

Quote found in article https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49393198
EdwinSm
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 556
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests