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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 09:31:51

Hey, if you don't like the yield curve as a recession gauge, how about the -5.9% YoY trend in the Cass Freight Index, the -9.7% plunge in Port of Long Beach cargo traffic and the 3.9% slide in US railway carloadings?


It is really all about the world's equity situation:

Assets - Liabilities = Equity

The central banks have no power to create equity. They can only move it from one place to another, and they do that by printing currency, and changing interbank borrowing rates. With world debt now at $323 trillion, and growing exponentially there is little equity remaining in the system to be moved. Debt is a liability, and because of its phenomenal growth, as the saying goes; "they are running out of ammunition". The central banks can do nothing.

Freight rates, housing starts, auto loans, and etc. are all symptoms of a deeper under lying structural problem. With the world close to the end of the oil age, equity creation has ceased to appear. The Asset/ Liability equation will continue to grow unbalanced until it tips over, and we will hear about it in the news when GE, Boeing, HSBC, or some other major corporation files for bankruptcy. The economy will then begin dissolving at a rate of several hundred $trillion a year. The shock will paralysis the little that remains!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby marmico » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 11:21:17

With world debt now at $323 trillion


Is Bozo Bedford dyslexic? $323 in the narrative but $233 on the graph.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby marmico » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 11:46:48

While Armadillo and Bozo Bedford bloviate and blather, Q3 2019 GDP forecasts have been upgraded to 2.2% by GDPNow (Atlanta Fed) and 1.8% by Nowcast (New York Fed).

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 12:05:04

TOTAL COLLAPSE UPDATE:

Armed police are now regularly appearing on street corners in my Bankrupt Coal Town. The Number of "For Sale" signs is increasing dramatically. The whole town is filled with "Garage Sale" signs. Everybody ignores speed limits. The normal speed limit is 100 mph.

Its going...TOTAL MAD MAX2
Department of Energy: "This number is no longer in existence"
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 16:45:30

Consumer Confidence Crashes As Rate-Cut Triggered "Apprehensions About A Recession"


They won’t like more rate cuts and QE4 either
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 17:25:28

Armageddon wrote:Consumer Confidence Crashes As Rate-Cut Triggered "Apprehensions About A Recession"


They won’t like more rate cuts and QE4 either

Nice citation. :roll:

Are we all dead yet? :lol:


Ah yes, zerohedge, where every single datapoint is a "crash" or other doom mongering cherry picking term.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby GHung » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 17:49:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Consumer Confidence Crashes As Rate-Cut Triggered "Apprehensions About A Recession"


They won’t like more rate cuts and QE4 either

Nice citation. :roll:

Are we all dead yet? :lol:


Ah yes, zerohedge, where every single datapoint is a "crash" or other doom mongering cherry picking term.


Ah yes, Peakoil.com where there's never any downside.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 19:23:24

Fed's Kashkari says rate cut likely needed to help U.S. economy


Does he read my posts too? Word must be getting around
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 20:09:08

Cass Freight Index Contracts 8th Month, Predicts Negative GDP By Q3/Q4


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... e-gdp-q3q4
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 16 Aug 2019, 23:35:02

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 07:55:20

Fed's Kashkari says rate cut likely needed to help U.S. economy


Does he read my posts too? Word must be getting around


Of course rates will have to go down; that is a no brainier. The debt is going up, and if rates don't go down there would be no way to service the new and existing debt. Simple math. But let's see how far they can take it without collapsing the credit market, and the entire world's debt based monetary system. Someone is going to get tired of loaning money at a loss. By 2022 world debt will have reached $444 trillion, and the neutral rate will be 1.7%. But that should be no problem as that is same growth rate that the world had in 1830. The synchronized globalized world economy should be booming.

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 12:39:35

shortonoil wrote:
Fed's Kashkari says rate cut likely needed to help U.S. economy


Does he read my posts too? Word must be getting around


Of course rates will have to go down; that is a no brainier.

...

The end of the oil age will be preceded by a world in economic ruin.

Says the clown who's always wrong re oil, and who can't spell "no brainer".

Irony can be hilarious. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 12:51:42

The 3 stooges have never added one intelligent thought to this entire discussion. They’d rather bring up a typo.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 20:34:37

Household Debt Sets New Record: New York Fed
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 17 Aug 2019, 20:41:50

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-08- ... tate-world

12 Reasons Why Negative Rates Will Devastate The World
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 07:47:55

First Trucking then rest of Economy down the drain

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/truc ... eld-2019-8
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 08:04:32

The 3 stooges have never added one intelligent thought to this entire discussion. They’d rather bring up a typo.


It takes some kind of really twisted, pathological head case to try to deceive others just for the sake of doing it; day after day. There used to be padded cells for that type of people! Now they put them on a computer. Hopefully, the upcoming crash will weed some of them out. They get very boring, very fast, and they are destructive. Fortunately, as the shadow of the coming collapse lengthens, they will become less effective until they are being stoned in the streets.

12 Reasons Why Negative Rates Will Devastate The World


Interest rates that must go down to maintain the monetary system is the ultimate indicator of how fast the system is failing. If those rates don't fall the existing debt can not be serviced. There is only 2.5% remaining, and then lending money will be a losing proposition. There won't be much economy remaining if there isn't a working credit system. Exponentially growing debt is another, and an ERoEI for petroleum under 8:1 means that we will never be able to get the old oil driven economy working again once this one fails.

Between oil, and debt we have a good working time line for how long this shit show can continue. We could have five years? With the number of ignorant, thuggish, self serving, narcissistic, lunatics we have running the world we may not make it to Christmas?

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 08:24:10

The bond 'black hole' is getting larger and scarier with a third of the global market now negative


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-18/ ... fmredir=sm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 08:41:12

The #US Gross National #debt has jumped by $363 billion in the two weeks since President Trump signed the law that suspended the debt ceiling. That’s up by $1.01 trillion from 12 months ago. 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/17/us-gr ... ecurities/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 9

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 18 Aug 2019, 11:39:55

US gov borrows $2 to make $1. This ponzi implodes when interest expense becomes $1 also. Currently 2/3rds of way there. A recession will put it over the line. The US will then have to default. A country doesn’t default through traditional means. It defaults through its currency.
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