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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 May 2019, 10:13:57

The world has added 1.38 mb/d of new production over the last year, it has lost 1.6 from Venezuela, 1.4 from Iran, and the legacy decline of existing fields has been at least 3.5. The world is Post Peak. The world's economy will be following just like it has for the last 159 years.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 18 May 2019, 11:15:22

Gosh, you know, people talk about peak oil as if when the world is at peak everything will slide. That might be, but I think it is more likely that business as usual will prevail. It could be some time after the world peaks that the economic meaning of it hits the markets. There are lots of reasons why this might be the case. One of them is what I've referred to in the past as a trailing peak. That means that current technology makes it possible to change the equation, clouding the timing of the peak so that it slides along behind. It would always be in the past, but not at a fixed date. Instead, it might always be a year ago, or whatever near enough period of time the markets need to convince themselves there isn't a crisis. Then there are alternatives. Those can fill such a trailing peak hole, if their adoptions rates merely increase at some possible rate. Things like war, masking resource depletion caused migration, could also come into play and prevent the markets from embracing the concept. Because peak oil is going to hit the poorer parts of the world first. Those parts of the world, when they go to war, are also more prone to cast people far away. Such migration is easily confused with people fleeing for economic reasons. Just being able to see it doesn't mean the world will fall apart, in other words. Some narrative would have to prevail at the same time which caused the markets, there is an emotional component to them as well, to give up on a story that has worked for them for some time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 18 May 2019, 15:00:14

Negative rates here to stay. Investors are boosting bets that #ECB interest rates will fall further. Money markets are pricing in a 40% chance that the ECB will cut rates by the first quarter of 2020. The ECB is one of 5 central banks w/negative rates. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Negative rates coming to the US soon.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 May 2019, 16:33:09

Gosh, you know, people talk about peak oil as if when the world is at peak everything will slide. That might be, but I think it is more likely that business as usual will prevail. It could be some time after the world peaks that the economic meaning of it hits the markets.


Interesting perspective, but the only concrete evidence that we have is the decline in production that occurred between 1979 and 1983, along with those years GDP

1979 - 62.67 mb/d $ 9.77 trillion
1983 - 53.26 mb/d $11.4 trillion

During those 5 years there was some nominal growth in GDP, but it was less than the inflation rate. Economic growth essentially went flat, at least on the graph. The impact of the fall in production showed in the GDP almost immediately; at least within six months. World debt in 1980 was $5.12 trillion, it is now $247.0 trillion. The energy delivered to the general economy from a unit of oil has fallen by 52% over the period. Chances are, we are going to get hammered!

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 May 2019, 17:06:05

evilgenius wrote:Gosh, you know, people talk about peak oil as if when the world is at peak everything will slide. That might be, but I think it is more likely that business as usual will prevail.


THIS. Evilgenius is one of the few voices of reason on this site.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 May 2019, 17:10:21

Also, the world has been able to pump enough additional oil to over come its per unit decline of energy delivered. Peak is going to end that party.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 18 May 2019, 17:14:17

First-quarter gold purchases by central banks, led by Russia and China, were the highest in six years as countries diversify their assets away from the U.S. dollar.


Global gold reserves rose 145.5 tons in the first quarter, a 68 percent increase from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said Thursday in a report. Russia remains the largest buyer as the nation reduces its U.S. Treasury holdings as part of a de-dollarization drive.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia


I bought 7 more 1oz gold eagles today. I’m doing what they’re doing. They know what’s coming.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 May 2019, 17:22:01

Negative rates here to stay. Investors are boosting bets that #ECB interest rates will fall further. Money markets are pricing in a 40% chance that the ECB will cut rates by the first quarter of 2020. The ECB is one of 5 central banks w/negative rates. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Negative rates coming to the US soon.


Anyone betting against that is selling Moose Pasture in Saskatchewan to Yankee idiots looking for a place to put their DoomDigs. .
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 18 May 2019, 21:00:19

Not Bullish: No trade deal next month, SPY shorts surging, Leading Index growth slips, 80% of $SPX companies (72 of 90) have issued negative EPS guidance for Q2


https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/not ... ce-for-q2/


Anther gold run for me next weekend. Hope you guys are stocking up while gold and silver are still low. There will be a time soon where you wont be able to buy any at any cost. Sellers won’t take your worthless fiat paper in exchange for it. We are in the calm before the storm, but the storm clouds are on the horizon. Don’t wait much longer to prep.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 19 May 2019, 02:38:08

Armageddon wrote: Hope you guys are stocking up while gold and silver are still low. There will be a time soon where you wont be able to buy any at any cost. Sellers won’t take your worthless fiat paper in exchange for it.


What will the sellers sell it for, instead of worthless fiat paper? Any guidance?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 May 2019, 09:37:10

radon1 wrote:
Armageddon wrote: Hope you guys are stocking up while gold and silver are still low. There will be a time soon where you wont be able to buy any at any cost. Sellers won’t take your worthless fiat paper in exchange for it.


What will the sellers sell it for, instead of worthless fiat paper? Any guidance?



There will probably be some sort of a currency reset at some point. China is pushing for a gold backed global currency. There’s a reason China, Russia and many CB’s and governments are hoarding gold and silver. How much longer do you think China will accept worthless dollars in the trade imbalance with the US? Not much longer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 May 2019, 11:12:01

What will the sellers sell it for, instead of worthless fiat paper? Any guidance?


If you are in China; pigs. The African Swine flue has dwindled their herds down to about nothing, and pork is the Chinese ambrosia, and back bone of their diet.

How much longer do you think China will accept worthless dollars in the trade imbalance with the US? Not much longer.


That assumes that there is going to be a China that resembles something like the present one. When the CCP loses its Mandate of Heaven, they will also lose their heads. This will be a world wide event. The world is running a technologically overly complex Potemkin Village Ponzi scheme that it can not maintain. It is depleting its resource base far faster than new developments can be brought to bear to counter its decline. If workable fusion power arrived tomorrow it could not be deployed in time to save the present system.

There is a new world order coming; it just won't be the one the elites had in mind!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 May 2019, 12:29:48

" new world order coming; it just won't be the one the elites had in mind!"
Cataclysmic events are coming environmentally and economically. Our denier friends wish that inconvenient truth to go away. Reality has other plans
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 19 May 2019, 12:36:29

Armageddon wrote:
radon1 wrote:
Armageddon wrote: Hope you guys are stocking up while gold and silver are still low. There will be a time soon where you wont be able to buy any at any cost. Sellers won’t take your worthless fiat paper in exchange for it.


What will the sellers sell it for, instead of worthless fiat paper? Any guidance?



There will probably be some sort of a currency reset at some point. China is pushing for a gold backed global currency. There’s a reason China, Russia and many CB’s and governments are hoarding gold and silver. How much longer do you think China will accept worthless dollars in the trade imbalance with the US? Not much longer.


So, the sellers will sell it for China's gold backed global currency. At some point. Instead of the US worthless paper. China's - meaning China politburo's, to be more exact. Interesting plan.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 May 2019, 12:50:31

radon1 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
radon1 wrote:
Armageddon wrote: Hope you guys are stocking up while gold and silver are still low. There will be a time soon where you wont be able to buy any at any cost. Sellers won’t take your worthless fiat paper in exchange for it.


What will the sellers sell it for, instead of worthless fiat paper? Any guidance?



There will probably be some sort of a currency reset at some point. China is pushing for a gold backed global currency. There’s a reason China, Russia and many CB’s and governments are hoarding gold and silver. How much longer do you think China will accept worthless dollars in the trade imbalance with the US? Not much longer.


So, the sellers will sell it for China's gold backed global currency. At some point. Instead of the US worthless paper. China's - meaning China politburo's, to be more exact. Interesting plan.



The US will have its own type of gold backed currency.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby radon1 » Sun 19 May 2019, 13:27:13

Armageddon wrote:The US will have its own type of gold backed currency.


Gold backed currencies do not work in the long term. Gold supply dwindles due to natural depletion, people begin to hoard gold, as a result the money circulation declines and the economy enters depression. Then either the economy and institutions completely fall apart (as was the case eg. in the Roman empire when their Spanish mines depleted), or the issuers dilute the money or totally abandon the gold standard (as was the case in the US and elsewhere).

Nobody is going to sit and wait and do nothing to keep a few hoarders happy. People will either resort to force, or figure a mechanism that provides growth. This has always been the case historically, and is natural for humans.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 May 2019, 13:52:06

The US will have its own type of gold backed currency.


Even though the Federal Reserve waylayed the US monetary system in 1913, all of the States have retained their mints and printing presses. Good thing; they are going to need them. The States will fill in for the over bloated, over indebted, bankrupt, corporate and special interests miss manged, failing behemoth known as the Federal Government. It looks like Thomas Jefferson saw this coming?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 May 2019, 14:07:05

Cataclysmic events are coming environmentally and economically. Our denier friends wish that inconvenient truth to go away. Reality has other plans


1880 isn't as far away as some would like to pretend. The southern end of a north bound mule is probably closer that a 5G cell phone.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 19 May 2019, 14:12:32

radon1 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:The US will have its own type of gold backed currency.


Gold backed currencies do not work in the long term. Gold supply dwindles due to natural depletion, people begin to hoard gold, as a result the money circulation declines and the economy enters depression. Then either the economy and institutions completely fall apart (as was the case eg. in the Roman empire when their Spanish mines depleted), or the issuers dilute the money or totally abandon the gold standard (as was the case in the US and elsewhere).

Nobody is going to sit and wait and do nothing to keep a few hoarders happy. People will either resort to force, or figure a mechanism that provides growth. This has always been the case historically, and is natural for humans.




Fiat systems don’t work. Gold back systems are the only ones that have a chance to endure. Fiat has to be backed by something, otherwise governments will print it until inflation collapses the entire system. Sound familiar?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 19 May 2019, 14:20:00



Fiat systems don’t work. Gold back systems are the only ones that have a chance to endure. Fiat has to be backed by something, otherwise governments will print it until inflation collapses the entire system. Sound familiar?

The economic gurus knew this back then which is why they made sure they had the Petrodollar in place when they went off the gold standard. But, that ploy has run its course and is useless against the ravages of falling Net energy
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