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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 09 May 2019, 20:13:49

Consumer debt sets another record. Many Americans are using their credit cards to make ends meet.

That’s why ive always said GDP is a flawed stat to gauge the economy. The more govt and people borrow, the higher the GDP is. Thats like running up all your credit cards and calling yourself wealthy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 10 May 2019, 03:52:26

"Chinese stocks extending gains despite US tariff hike.
Shanghai Composite +3.1%.
Shenzhen Component +4%
Chinext +4.3%
Tech stocks and defence stocks leading the gains."

Yes, this was a government intervention. No big deal in China.

Chinese non-financial corporations have USD 20 Trillion in debt, most of it denominated in yuan though.

But China has USD 1.2 Trillion in dollar denominated debt coming due this year...so they will need dollars...
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Fri 10 May 2019, 04:45:35

Lets see now. When the market goes up its that pesky government intervention spoiling our doomer plans. When the market goes down its "See us doomers were right, its all crashing"

I believe I have accurately summarized doomers and their economic theories.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 10 May 2019, 06:05:38

The doomer media Bloomberg is saying that the Chinese government intervened.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -s-tariffs

Now let's see how much the U.S stock market will rise today.

I really don't care where the money comes from...as long as the markets don't crash ...because that will be start of the apocalypse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 10 May 2019, 22:43:23

Yoshua wrote:The doomer media Bloomberg is saying that the Chinese government intervened.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -s-tariffs

Now et's see how much the U.S stock market will rise today.

I really don't care where the money comes from...as long as the markets don't crash ...because that will be start of the apocalypse.

Don't worry. Doomers have been wrongly predicting such things for MANY decades.

So how do you explain Friday's US market. The Chinese didn't intervene until noon?

Or admit the Chinese weren't intervening at all -- that people read the news, and try to guess what might happen?

Or some new conspiracy or technical theory?

Or just admit you can't predict markets any better than anyone else?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 12 May 2019, 10:02:20

Yoshua wrote:"Chinese stocks extending gains despite US tariff hike.
Shanghai Composite +3.1%.
Shenzhen Component +4%
Chinext +4.3%
Tech stocks and defence stocks leading the gains."

Yes, this was a government intervention. No big deal in China.

Chinese non-financial corporations have USD 20 Trillion in debt, most of it denominated in yuan though.

But China has USD 1.2 Trillion in dollar denominated debt coming due this year...so they will need dollars...


You don't need a Chinese government intervention to raise Chinese stocks. Importers are the ones paying the tariffs. Theoretically, those tariffs provide some sort of incentive to produce domestically. You have to ask yourself if that is going to happen. Are tariffs, even at twenty five percent, enough to incentivize companies to go out and hire domestic workers and to invest in domestically based capital goods? To be sure, there is an opportunity created by them. Is it stable? Won't it go away during negotiations? I think at least the threat of it is necessary in order for Trump to obtain the sort of thing he wants from the Chinese, in the same way that it was the threat of American conservation that eventually brought the Saudis to see the light in their efforts to bring America to its knees in the 70's.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 12 May 2019, 13:32:03

one of the major issues with using protective tariffs to attempt to increase domestic production is it simply creates a platform for subsidized industry. One of the reasons that companies import goods from China is because the domestic industry cannot produce competitively. If it is cheaper to buy elsewhere then the choices should be either find a way of competing by lowering domestic costs or just do without. Adding a protective tariff is nothing more than the government supporting an industry that is non-competitive on its own, not generally a good thing for the economy.
Surprising to me that Trump seems to still think China is paying for the additional tariffs. Maybe he is hoping the stupid sector of the voting public will believe that nonsense?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 12 May 2019, 20:11:51

rockdoc123 wrote:
Surprising to me that Trump seems to still think China is paying for the additional tariffs. Maybe he is hoping the stupid sector of the voting public will believe that nonsense?

That's what I believe. By the way, it's FAR more politicians than Trump who jabber nonsense and hope their supporters will ignore it or won't understand it, and vote for them anyway.

And it works, far too often.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 13 May 2019, 04:02:58

rockdoc123 wrote: the government supporting an industry
This is not the government, this is the consumers who support the industry that is shielded by protective tariffs. They are the ones who pay the higher prices for the same product.

But in any event, it wont happen. The owners will move the production from China to Indonesia or Bangladesh or Vietnam or elsewhere with lower costs and no tariffs. This process has been underway for some time already anyway. The ones on the losing end are the Chinese authorities, as the production assets are moving out off the reach of the Chinese tax net. Trump wants a deal with them whereby the Chinese would buy some overpriced stuff from the US, amend their IP legislation and whatnot on top of it, in exchange for no or lower tariffs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 13 May 2019, 08:36:43

World trade is down 1.1% YoY, the equity market is seriously overvalued, and the bond market is screaming deflation. The Red Headed Step Child just raised tariffs by 15% on $360 billion worth of goods coming into the US. If the consumer adsorbs all of the the tariffs imposed (which they don't; currency effects assure that the seller will absorb some portion of it) it would add $12.36 billion to the cost of an already stressed economy of buyers. For the first time in 159 years the dollar value of a barrel of oil to the economy is going down!

We will now return to our regularly scheduled program of serial spammers.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 May 2019, 09:32:31

Serial spammers? What value is that stupid graph of yours which imposes just as much whitespace below it as it is high?
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND HE WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HIS POSTS HAVE NO CREDIBILITY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 May 2019, 10:03:03

This is not the government, this is the consumers who support the industry that is shielded by protective tariffs. They are the ones who pay the higher prices for the same product.


uh, no. The gov't makes the decision to impose tariffs, the taxpayer doesn't, he just has to pay for them. It is a gov't decision to prop up the non-competitive industry, not the taxpayers, who in reality just want to pay the lowest rate for quality goods. As to moving to other jurisdictions the US imports ~$190 billion a year of computer and electronics equipment. The Chinese sell the same equipment elsewhere so any movement of factories where they lose the advantage of lower cost labor and the social advantage recognized through creating employment for their large population will be slow if it happens at all. The US stopped making this stuff themselves because there was as good technical solutions that could be purchased elsewhere much cheaper (good business decision). If it were possible for large scale production of these goods to happen someplace other than China I suspect it would have already.

Another tweet from Trump today suggests he still is on this kick that China pays for the tariffs even though Kudlow admitted in an interview on Sunday that it is the US taxpayer who pays for them. Bizarre.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 May 2019, 10:26:54

This could easily be the trigger event.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 13 May 2019, 11:25:44

Armageddon wrote:This could easily be the trigger event.


LOL Doomers are always chasing the latest trigger for their wished for apocalypse. You don't invest with a stop watch, you use a calendar.

China will bend the knee on tariffs and on a trade deal favorable to the USA. I called this when Trump put the first tariff on them. We don't need China near as much as they need us when it comes to trade. But if they want to play the game of chicken with us, I'm fine with that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 13 May 2019, 11:31:41

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:This could easily be the trigger event.


LOL Doomers are always chasing the latest trigger for their wished for apocalypse. You don't invest with a stop watch, you use a calendar.

China will bend the knee on tariffs and on a trade deal favorable to the USA. I called this when Trump put the first tariff on them. We don't need China near as much as they need us when it comes to trade. But if they want to play the game of chicken with us, I'm fine with that.


Meant to be the trigger event for the move of the production assets from China to elsewhere, obviously; not trigger event for apocalypse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 May 2019, 11:51:48

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:This could easily be the trigger event.


LOL Doomers are always chasing the latest trigger for their wished for apocalypse. You don't invest with a stop watch, you use a calendar.

China will bend the knee on tariffs and on a trade deal favorable to the USA. I called this when Trump put the first tariff on them. We don't need China near as much as they need us when it comes to trade. But if they want to play the game of chicken with us, I'm fine with that.




Until they start dumping treasuries
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Cog » Mon 13 May 2019, 12:28:25

And make treasuries worth less to the Chinese? You really don't understand how things work in the bond market. Us treasuries are the safest investment out there and the Chinese are well aware of that.

Good day to buy some more stock though if you are interested in making money instead of losing it due to the usual panic selling.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 13 May 2019, 13:01:25

Cog wrote:And make treasuries worth less to the Chinese? You really don't understand how things work in the bond market. Us treasuries are the safest investment out there and the Chinese are well aware of that.

Good day to buy some more stock though if you are interested in making money instead of losing it due to the usual panic selling.



If China sells Treasuries it's a double win for China. Not only do they fire a fatal shot in the trade war, but it will tank the dollar and strengthen the yuan. That will increase the purchasing power of Chinese consumers, who can buy the goods no longer exported to the US

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 13 May 2019, 13:11:11

Hurray! They are buying stocks!

But world trade is tanking...oil is tanking... copper is tanking...

They have to buy everything! Because the consumers are broke!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 May 2019, 15:12:10

Armageddon wrote:This could easily be the trigger event.

So now you're going to change your forecast AGAIN, change the event, and claim you were RIGHT -- but only if it happens?

Sure. And that will be just as credible as the rest of your malarkey.

Waiting until something happens and THEN claiming you predicted it isn't exactly impressive. But you could do fine as a lying newsletter writer / self promoter. You'd be in good company. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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