Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 02:45:28

U.S GDP grew by USD 1 Trillion. U.S national debt grew by USD 1.3 Trillion.

The U.S economy is on government life support. The same is true for Europe and China.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/02/28/gdp-r ... -trillion/
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1401
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 03:41:49

"FED'S KAPLAN SAYS IF U.S. GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO MODERATE DEBT, IT COULD RESTRAIN GROWTH"

The economy would tank. We would be in a depression. Demand would tank. Oil prices would crash....but the stock market would rise..
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1401
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 04:54:15

Armageddon wrote:
Cog wrote:All GDP estimates are revised after the first release. You should know that and its certainty nothing new. Sometimes they move a tenth of a point up or down.



Of coarse, but this one says it’s based on incomplete data. They are just throwing crap out there.


Incomplete due to the government shutdown. Remember it? But they will be close enough which is fine for government work. It does show the economy is not crashing much to the chagrin of the perma-doomers.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12304
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 09:08:31

US Real Spending Crashes In December

Canada In Recession? GDP Unexpectedly Drops For 2nd Month In A Row

#globalcollapse
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 09:45:20

Armageddon wrote:US Real Spending Crashes In December

Canada In Recession? GDP Unexpectedly Drops For 2nd Month In A Row

#globalcollapse

And on that news the market crashed backwards up to 26,125
:-D :lol: :-D :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 10:43:40

And on that news the market crashed backwards up to 26,125


The entire world is rapidly falling into a recession, and the equity market goes up? This is just another very good example of how broken the monetary/financial system has become. We are entering a recession from which the world will never recover. King oil is no longer there to power it. US crude production has increased 300% since 2005, refinery inputs have increased 25%, and finished product production, over that same time period, has remained flat! The quality of the oil being used is falling so fast that it will soon be unsatisfactory for producing fuels. Increasing raw material costs will make the refining process unpractical. The increased cost of fuels will crush the remainder of the economy. The oil age is ending, and most everything else will go with it.

Hang on to your Confederate money; it will soon be the best valued fiat currency available.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5874
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 11:09:58

shortonoil wrote:
And on that news the market crashed backwards up to 26,125


The entire world is rapidly falling into a recession, and the equity market goes up? This is just another very good example of how broken the monetary/financial system has become. We are entering a recession from which the world will never recover. King oil is no longer there to power it. US crude production has increased 300% since 2005, refinery inputs have increased 25%, and finished product production, over that same time period, has remained flat! The quality of the oil being used is falling so fast that it will soon be unsatisfactory for producing fuels. Increasing raw material costs will make the refining process unpractical. The increased cost of fuels will crush the remainder of the economy. The oil age is ending, and most everything else will go with it.

Hang on to your Confederate money; it will soon be the best valued fiat currency available.

You are so full of it your eyes have to be brown.
Also you flunked six grade math when it comes to computing percentages.
US domestic production has risen 182 percent not 300 sense 2005. from 4,214,000bpd to 11,900,000 today. which means we could buy that much less foreign oil which is a good thing.
Refinery inputs increased not 25% but 16% (14.930mbpd to 17.350mbpd)which is what it took to meet demand.
And finally final output also rose 16% (545.143mb per month to 632.705 mbpm) also to meet demand.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... TRPUS1&f=M
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 12:08:44

The 8086 that you are still using as a brain is letting you down again. Complements EIA.

Image
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5874
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 12:19:35

Really Walmart is not the best place to get your data on US production. US production has surged, refinery inputs are up, and finished product production is going on where. The quality of oil has fallen so low that it is barely producing fuels.

You can now extract your foot from what ever orifice you have jammed it into.

Image
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 5874
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 12:49:02

GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 12:53:22

You moron the inputs to refineries are the sum of US production and imports not just us production. And a pencil and paper is all I need to compute the ("increase") in a production figure. You forgot to subtract the base from the final figure Dumbo.
As to total production of finished products this weeks report says we provided 20.8 million barrels a day up 2.1 % from a year ago.
You should start yet another sock puppet to spout this nonsense. I suggest Shortonbrains for its name.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9770
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 13:07:47

US production has surged, refinery inputs are up, and finished product production is going on where. The quality of oil has fallen so low that it is barely producing fuels.


Maybe in your Bizarro world where right is left etc. Here in the real world, the API of oil input to US refineries has been essentially flat since 1984 (just below 32 API in 1985-90 and at end of 2018 just below 32 API). Sulfur content, the other important parameter has been flat since 2001. Quality of input has been flat because they are blending….the refineries are getting what they got twenty years ago the only difference is the source of the blending components.
And as to outputs, the refinery yields for gasoline have also been relatively flat since the nineties (eg. 47.5% in Feb 1993 and 47.2% in Nov 2018). The distillate yield rose from 2000 to 2008 but has been essentially flat since then. Jet fuel yield is essentially the same as it was in the nineties.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 13:08:42

Armageddon wrote:GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

The fact that you are calling the prediction for growth a "crash" says it ALL.

Get a life.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6632
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby natrajk » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 13:36:24

If the numbers exist; can someone give me the accurate info on US production, refinery inputs, and finished product, and the development the past 15 years?
natrajk
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 1
Joined: Wed 07 Nov 2018, 13:38:06

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 15:42:11

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:GDP Crash: Goldman, Atlanta & NY Feds See Q1 GDP Tumble Below 1%

The fact that you are calling the prediction for growth a "crash" says it ALL.

Get a life.



Historic low interest rates, record govt debt, record personal debt, record student loan debt, record corporate debt and we are heading to below 1% GDP. New homes, auto, etc are all tanking.

Yes, we are heading for the biggest collapse in history. Buckle up son
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 15:48:28

More than 300 store closures are announced in a single day, as the retail apocalypse rips through JCPenney, Gap, and Victoria's Secret
[link to www.businessinsider.com (secure)]

Gap, JCPenney, and Victoria's Secret announced more than 300 store closures over the course of 24 hours this week, sending a clear signal that the fallout from the retail apocalypse is far from over.

Gap said Thursday that it would close 230 namesake stores in the next two years, as it reported that the brand's same-store sales fell 7% during the holiday quarter. The company also said it would spin off its Old Navy brand.

Earlier in the day, JCPenney said it would close 27 stores in 2019, including 18 full-line department stores and 9 home and furniture stores. The department store chain said same-store sales fell 4% during the fourth quarter.

Victoria's Secret's same-store sales also fell during the holidays, dropping 3% during the quarter. The company said late Wednesday that it would close 53 stores this year, citing a "decline in performance."

These announcements will bring the number of planned store closures this year to nearly 4,500.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 16:44:12

More than 300 store closures are announced in a single day, as the retail apocalypse rips through JCPenney, Gap, and Victoria's Secret


not surprising that it is being offset by online sales. People want to buy certain things online and not in brick and mortar retailers.

Image

[url]https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/12/2018-retail-apocalypse-online-shopping-charts-maps/579112/
[/url]
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 17:13:24

Id love to see the effects online spending has on an economy. When brick and mortar go out of business, who holds the debt for buildings and businesses? How about local taxes not being collected? How about the jobs in retail disappearing?

I’m no so sure online sales is good for an economy.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 19:20:41

ISM manufacturing index hits lowest level since November 2016

The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January, the Institute for Supply Management said. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to slip to 55.5 in February.
A decline in new orders, production, employment and prices all contributed to the broader index's decline, ISM data showed.

I’m fearful of what’s coming. My entire personal weath is in gold and silver, but who knows if that will even help in a complete collapse. I do have a pretty good supply of food, water and ammo also. I also think Trump can hold if off until after the election by cutting rates to zero and more QE. But after that, we will experience something never seen in the US before.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4679
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Mar 2019, 19:26:25

Armageddon wrote:ISM manufacturing index hits lowest level since November 2016

The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.2 in February from 56.6 in January, the Institute for Supply Management said. Economists polled by Refinitiv expected the index to slip to 55.5 in February.
A decline in new orders, production, employment and prices all contributed to the broader index's decline, ISM data showed.

I’m fearful of what’s coming. My entire personal weath is in gold and silver, but who knows if that will even help in a complete collapse. I do have a pretty good supply of food, water and ammo also. I also think Trump can hold if off until after the election by cutting rates to zero and more QE. But after that, we will experience something never seen in the US before.

Because if you bleat it enough times, then it MUST be true. Just tap your heels together three times, and you're in Kansas. :roll:

And after looking at a chart of the ISM Index, notice how many times it's been below 50 in the past decade with no recession. So naturally, you should run for the hills if it's over 54. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6632
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Next

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests