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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 07:20:06

ASG,

I don’t often follow this thread but came here to make a post.

Now I see your last few posts. They are not acceptable behavior by adults.

Cease!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 09:13:56

FWIW, in my mind this story has something in common with the India story above.

. "There, in the corner, we found this dead fox," Pascal Daniel, the head of farming at the school, told the Agence France-Presse news agency. "There was a herd instinct and they attacked him with their beaks."


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.co ... index.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 14:27:06

Armageddon wrote:This is normal? Companies, governments and households increased their combined debt load by 50 percent in the 10 years following the financial crisis, S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday.

Is it impossible for you to provide actual citations with url's for your claims? Why should everyone who cares have to search around, look for related stories, and hope /guess that they find the one you are talking about in MANY of your posts?

Newfie just complained that ASG wasn't acting like an adult in this thread, but I believe you aren't either -- and he was reacting to you.

So how does your claim square with the fact that since the great recession, that US household debt to GDP has DECLINED by about 20% -- indicating a meaningful increase in the health of the US household debt situation during the recovery -- which is a GOOD sign, not a bad sign?

Maybe because you only ever want to report financial data or news which you can give a negative slant to, zerohedge style? (Or have I missed something?)

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

(Click on the 10Y choice at the bottom of the chart).

I think looking at finances and the markets, and debating the data is a good thing. But I think some honesty and balance in reporting the data and presenting the data, i.e. that we try to act like adults here, re the spirit of the COC, would also be a good thing.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 14:30:12

Outcast

I didn’t go back to see who started the poo storm, just reacted to what was in my face. If I start going back where do I stop?

The reason I’m so public with my adminstions is so that all folks can see where we draw the line and act accordingly.

So, yes, if someone else is behaving in a similar manner they should clean up their act.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 15:09:04

Armageddon wrote:This is normal? Companies, governments and households increased their combined debt load by 50 percent in the 10 years following the financial crisis, S&P Global Ratings said Tuesday.

OK, so I searched and think I found what you are referring to (once again).

https://www.spglobal.com/_assets/docume ... ar2019.pdf

I see that as usual, your comment isn't AT ALL balanced.

No mention, for example, that the first summary highlight is this:

Crisis. The next global downturn is unlikely to be as severe as 2008-2009 given that contagion risk from higher government and Chinese corporate leverage is limited (see section 1).

So that completely contradicts your constant claims of sure and swift economic doom, so you don't bother to report it.

Instead, you mention a scary (out of context) sounding statistic from page 10, per the table of contents.

And the title on that page, that gives the big picture state of things is:

Global Leverage: 12% Higher Than In 2008

But of course, 12% over a decade isn't an alarming figure, so you go with the 50% for the debt. But only looking at the debt, as doomers mindlessly love to do, doesn't consider things like asset growth, liquidity, GDP growth, etc.

Earth to doomers, GDP matters, as a context for ability to service debt.

And of course, they state this is what they are talking about:

Credit-to-GDP. The total debt of global nonfinancial
borrowers hit $178 trillion in June 2018, up 50% from
June 2008 (see table 1). This is equivalent to a 234%
debt-to-GDP ratio*, up 12% (see chart 9).


Oh, and speaking of chart 9 on page 10, it shows that the credit growth of 12% for the decade globally is skewed upward by the very high third world growth. The growth was only 9.1% for the advanced economies, but over 50% for the emerging economies. (Per Microsoft CALC).

They also point out how global household debt to GDP has fallen meaningfully, consistent with the trend in the US I pointed out in my previous post.

Households. After the crisis, the sector decreased indebtedness 9%, to 59% from 65%.

1). So how is such scaremongering / FUD spreading via grabbing a single, out of context, scary sounding stat from a report, not providing a link to the report, and not mentioning any of the key summary information that contradicts your thesis "adult" behavior?

2). If this is how you repeatedly behave (which I believe I have shown re various previous rebuttals in this thread, where I put your misleading stats into context, using citations for my sources), why should you be taken seriously on this topic?

It's not like random doomers who have been playing such games for over 4 decades don't have an absolutely abysmal track record, re the accuracy of their predictions.

...

So after looking at this, my answer to your question is, it's perfectly normal, since your figure is out of context FUD.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 15:16:43

Newfie wrote:Outcast

I didn’t go back to see who started the poo storm, just reacted to what was in my face. If I start going back where do I stop?

The reason I’m so public with my adminstions is so that all folks can see where we draw the line and act accordingly.

So, yes, if someone else is behaving in a similar manner they should clean up their act.

Thank you for the response. My response was really aimed at informing the thread readers overall, vs. you. I didn't make that at all clear, so MY BAD on that. Obviously, for the mods to try to react to context vs. what is "in your face" would be unreasonable, and subject to perfectly ordinary human bias, so IMO that would be inadvisable, so I completely understand and agree with that point.

FWIW, I don't object at all to the frequency of Armageddon's posts -- it's the blatant bias and cherry picking, tantamount, IMO, to willful misrepresentation to try to make a fast crash doomer "case". Not that this behavior by fast crash doomers generally, is anything new or unusual.

Which is fine, if not exactly adult -- I'm on that case, using facts and context and citations.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 18:55:26

Newfie wrote:ASG,
I don’t often follow this thread but came here to make a post.
Now I see your last few posts. They are not acceptable behavior by adults.
Cease!


Sure, as long as you tell Armageddon to stop flooding this thread as well.
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 19:30:45

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:ASG,
I don’t often follow this thread but came here to make a post.
Now I see your last few posts. They are not acceptable behavior by adults.
Cease!


Sure, as long as you tell Armageddon to stop flooding this thread as well.



Mommy, tell him to stop or I’ll hold my breath!!!!!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 19:46:28

Armageddon wrote:
asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:ASG,
I don’t often follow this thread but came here to make a post.
Now I see your last few posts. They are not acceptable behavior by adults.
Cease!


Sure, as long as you tell Armageddon to stop flooding this thread as well.



Mommy, tell him to stop or I’ll hold my breath!!!!!!

Keep it up, man :)
SA has peaked. OPEC has peaked. So goes the world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 21:00:14

Both stop, now.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 22:19:58

Too many weirdos on here. I’ll probably move on. Good luck to the rest.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby marmico » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 05:11:55

Bye, bye.

EA19 January 2019 industrial production up 1.4%.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 35e6e6f46b

EA19 January 2019 volume of retail trade up 1.3%.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 2ceb425466

The US nonfinancial credit to GDP ratio has been flat as a pancake for 10 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QUSCAM770A
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 09:01:28

FWIW, I don't object at all to the frequency of Armageddon's posts -- it's the blatant bias and cherry picking, tantamount, IMO, to willful misrepresentation to try to make a fast crash doomer "case". Not that this behavior by fast crash doomers generally, is anything new or unusual.


Armageddon has not made one comment that can not be found in the Wall Street Journal. So what exactly is your problem? Out side of the fact that you are an intentional, disingenuous, obstructionists. That is a problem for the rest of us, but mostly we just ignore you, and your 50 page dissertations that read like the mutterings of a heat prostrated iguana. You should give Armageddon some credit, he apparently attempts to at least try to translate your hieroglyphics, and constant blabbering.

Speaking of, if Syria attacks Israel we will be somewhere near that place; Armageddon that is.
Syria's upgraded Russian ground to air defense system is up and running.

In other news; as the world's economy creaks to a halt as the oil age comes to an end:

Europe’s leading economic policy makers have officially thrown in the towel

Last week, the European Central Bank admitted economic conditions are so dire that it already has to reverse its monetary policy.


https://www.sovereignman.com/internatio ... tes-24689/

The energy delivery from fossil fuels as fallen so low that the world's economies can no longer even afford 0% interest rates, and that is when the CB are printing the money! Petroleum production must now receive 21% of its energy from other sources to remain operational. As that number grows the point will soon be reached when the system will no longer be able to supply it, and it will break down. Armageddon's recommendation is to secure what ever remaining assets that one may have before the coming tsunami of cascading defaults sweeps across the world

The other option is to buy GE stock, and use the certificates later as toilet paper. Welcome to the end of the oil age!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 10:17:55

shortonoil wrote:
The energy delivery from fossil fuels as fallen so low that the world's economies can no longer even afford 0% interest rates, and that is when the CB are printing the money! Petroleum production must now receive 21% of its energy from other sources to remain operational. As that number grows the point will soon be reached when the system will no longer be able to supply it, and it will break down. Armageddon's recommendation is to secure what ever remaining assets that one may have before the coming tsunami of cascading defaults sweeps across the world

The other option is to buy GE stock, and use the certificates later as toilet paper. Welcome to the end of the oil age!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

Meanwhile back in the real world the USA thirty year bond is at 3.025% and there is plenty of oil at $58.56 a barrel that contain as many BTUs per gallon as they ever have. And based on profit projections GE stock is up 0.30 to $10.30 a share.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 10:34:26

The new CEO is determined to turn GE around and so far his efforts are being rewarded with higher stock prices from their abysmal lows. I don't own a lot of GE but enough to enjoy the small turn around so far. I'll be underwater in that stock for quite a while but I can wait.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 12:37:35

The new CEO is determined to turn GE around and so far his efforts are being rewarded with higher stock prices from their abysmal lows.


One thing for sure this new CEO is not Jack Welsh. When I worked for GE, and Jack that company had $69 billion in free cash. It now has zero. They financially engineered it right into the ground along with most other US's companies. These companies are dead men walking, but it's probably too complicated for you to figure out what busted flat broke means. If you can figure it out take a look at the US corporate bond market. Most of it is just above junk!

And based on profit projections GE stock is up 0.30 to $10.30 a share.


That is quit an improvement from the $87 when I owned the stock. Idiots.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 13:57:21

GE invested in a lot of ventures in which they had zero experience and expertise. When those ventures failed, the management doubled down on trying to make them profitable. Stupid. Don't go outside your expertise just because you are an American icon. But if anyone can rescue GE its the current CEO.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 17:03:49

US commercial debt is now equal to 46% of GDP. A lot of that debt was accumulated by companies for the purpose of buying their own stock back. After the next blimp in the market they will be holding a lot of assets that no one will want. Stranded. The problem is that the companies who bought their own stock financed it with loans where it was assumed that the stock dividends would cover the interest cost. They are now trying to borrow the money to pay the dividends. The 2020 crash is going to make 2008 look like a church picnic.

To reiterate, this will be a recession from which the world will never recover. There is not enough extractable supply of petroleum remaining to pay for the recovery cost of the next downturn (recession). The world is short 96 Gb. Mother nature is simply not making enough of the stuff? Email your complaint to the Dept. of the Interior, Washington, DC.

Image

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/commer ... nger-zone/
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 17:28:29

After the next blimp in the market they will be holding a lot of assets that no one will want. Stranded. The problem is that the companies who bought their own stock financed it with loans where it was assumed that the stock dividends would cover the interest cost. They are now trying to borrow the money to pay the dividends. The 2020 crash is going to make 2008 look like a church picnic.


Do you actually understand how a stock buyback works? Apparently not. The companies purchase their own shares as it is seen to be a more effective method of increasing shareholder value at a given point than say investing in a particular industry. In the case of low oil and gas prices where there are limited opportunities to invest with big returns it can make more sense to take the capital and buy back shares. The company doesn't own those shares for any length of time (hence they don't receive dividends themselves, they just pay out less), they are taken off the market and simply disappear. The value is created by having fewer shares which increase demand/share and alters other metrics instantaneously such as debt/share, cash flow per share etc. Hence share price rises so shareholders see an uptick in their own valuations (and corporate management generally hold lots of shares so that works for them as well). At some point in the future when the company sees lots of opportunities to spend capex in their particular business (eg oil prices rise) then they can issue more shares which results in new equity for the company that can be spent to grow the business.
As to companies taking on debt to finance buybacks, I would like to see your source for that view. Bloomberg in October of 2018 just before the large seasonal blackout period stated:

When does the music stop? I don’t know, but American companies are generating enormous free cash flow. Cash and cash equivalents are still high. We are not seeing aggressive leveraging up of balance sheets to buy back stock — most are not issuing debt to buy back stock.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 21:10:24

Armageddon wrote:Too many weirdos on here. I’ll probably move on. Good luck to the rest.

That's hysterical. Pot, meet kettle...
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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