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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:53:28

Of course, this may be a totally different kind of "frenzy" that we have not previously seen.
Yep, the frenzy to short the market, cook the books, run for the hills and collect unemployment checks :lol: :lol:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 15:06:57

The rig count dropped along with price of oil in 2014, but it has recovered substantially since then. Rotary rig count in February 2019 was higher than the same time 2018.


Image

Try getting your trifocals adjusted grandpa. There is no drilling frenzy going on here. Unless we are talking about the new, improved, adjusted interpretation of "frenzy". In 2014 the rig count was about 1,600. Your version is like having an old hound dog named Lively, Excited, or Bouncy!

Of course, this may be a totally different kind of "frenzy" that we have not previously seen.


Yep, the frenzy to short the market, cook the books, run for the hills and collect unemployment checks


Frenzied Book Cookers are getting ever more popular in the oil biz. Shale wouldn't even exist without them.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 16:52:33

shortonoil wrote:
rockdoc wrote:The rig count dropped along with price of oil in 2014, but it has recovered substantially since then. Rotary rig count in February 2019 was higher than the same time 2018.


Image

Try getting your trifocals adjusted grandpa. There is no drilling frenzy going on here. Unless we are talking about the new, improved, adjusted interpretation of "frenzy". In 2014 the rig count was about 1,600. Your version is like having an old hound dog named Lively, Excited, or Bouncy!

He won't apologize for lying. With all his claims as an oil insider, one would expect some grace from rockdoc and maybe he would ask for forgiveness for deceiving readers with his CV and lies.

But forget that. rockdoc doesn't care that you call him out as as a liar and a cheater. He is paid enough as an oil company retiree/intern for all that to roll of his ducky back. These are hard times for the old timers. Wish he had gotten on the shale gravy train, but that is too late.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 19:33:02

Try getting your trifocals adjusted grandpa. There is no drilling frenzy going on here. Unless we are talking about the new, improved, adjusted interpretation of "frenzy". In 2014 the rig count was about 1,600. Your version is like having an old hound dog named Lively, Excited, or Bouncy!
 

Good Lord. You post a plot from End December 2017 to Feb 2017 and you are using that to refute my comment that the rotary rig count in February 2019 was higher than the same time in 2018? What kind of moron are you…apparently the very ignorant kind. :roll:

It might help if you got your facts straight although it is pretty apparent you don't like to let facts get in the way of a good BS story.

According to Baker Hughes the Rotary Rig count in the Permian Basin at it’s peak in 2014 was ~560 and at its peak in late 2018 it was 493. Perhaps you need to go to the Baker Hughes site as they are the ones who amalgamate the rig use data.

Image

Hmm....looks like the rotary rig count in the Permian in 2014 was almost half of what you claim. Go figure. :roll:

He won't apologize for lying. With all his claims as an oil insider, one would expect some grace from rockdoc and maybe he would ask for forgiveness for deceiving readers with his CV and lies.

But forget that. rockdoc doesn't care that you call him out as as a liar and a cheater. He is paid enough as an oil company retiree/intern for all that to roll of his ducky back. These are hard times for the old timers. Wish he had gotten on the shale gravy train, but that is too l


I see that your required time out didn’t improve your intelligence or interest in seeking out facts. I guess it would make sense for me to say “hey I got it wrong” if indeed I did. I’ve shown the actual data and I am as right as rain according to the guys who count the rigs. But you aren’t interested in what is correct, you simply want to play cheerleader for Short which you have been doing on the ETP and EROEI basis since God was in short pants. Knock yourself out, it is doing wonders for your reputation. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 24 Feb 2019, 17:00:20

Warren Buffet seems to be saying all is well here. Hmm, time to sell?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 52944.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 00:25:32

onlooker wrote:Warren Buffet seems to be saying all is well here. Hmm, time to sell?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-b ... 52944.html

Unlike clowns like you, Buffett has a great 6+ decade track record. When he talks, many smart people listen -- for a reason. OTOH, realize Buffett is a long term thinker, advising planning for decades, and sticking to a course.

The timeframe he is repeatedly talking about in the article is OVER SEVEN DECADES. You can go back and read an annual Berkshire Hathaway from Buffett for decades, and they'll have an overall consistent tone and message -- in both good times and bad. (Again, he's not focusing on the short term).

Not knee jerk reactions to many pieces of news a month, and yelling "fire". And ending up with a horrible track record like say, zerohedge.

So your "commentary" makes me think two things:

1). Any excuse to say what you apparently ALWAYS say: "Time to sell". What a surprise. :roll:

2). Given the tone and context of the article, your reaction makes me wonder if your thinking is much different than, say, that of an earthworm, when it comes to economics and planning for the future, if that's all you can learn from Warren Buffett.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 04:53:33

This must be one of the strangest crashes I have experienced in 40 years of investing. Doesn't your stock portfolio value normally go down in a stock market crash? Assuming you aren't shorting stocks. Maybe stock market crashes work differently in the doomer world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 09:25:06

Warren Buffet seems to be saying all is well here. Hmm, time to sell?


The world has definitely reached Peak, so as you asked previously what happens now? Does civilization fade into oblivion, or does it melt down like an ice cube on a hot Death Valley highway. There is no way that world production can compensate in 2019 for a 3.8 mb/d decline in existing production. Buffet and his ilke must be aware of the situation, a blind bat could see it in the dark. Obviously Buffet is lying through his teeth; Berkshire Hathaway lost $25 billion in 2018. The money mongers will be out to extract every last nickle from Joe Six that they can get their grubby little hands on. Knowing how this is going to unravel will be essential for the survival of the individual.

The energy equations give us a reasonable estimate of the coming decline rate, but they do not give us any idea of how the monetary system is going to react? We know that there is a massive debt load that can not be serviced except by CB funny money creation, and we know that the return on capital is going to continue downward. 93% of all asset classes in 2018 generated negative returns. So in a world that is now running in reverse how does one cope? Of course getting completely out of debt will be an obvious requirement, at least in the short term. The longer term will be much more challenging. Sitting around waiting for the supply chains to break, and the store shelves to go bare won't be not much of a strategy!

Identifying and acquiring a skill set that can continue to function in a deteriorating world is going to be essential, but very difficult to find. Some will luck out, and stubble into it, most won't. With everything around us failing, from government structures to corporations massive debt loads there will no longer be any safety in the status quo. That will leave the unimaginative, and unskilled at the mercy of the vultures! Those that are feathered and those that aren't.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 09:44:47

"Obviously Buffet is lying through his teeth; Berkshire Hathaway lost $25 billion in 2018. The money mongers will be out to extract every last nickle from Joe Six that they can get their grubby little hands on. " So, our friends on this site want to think that Buffet is the benevolent market guru, haha. He is a wealthy insider and he will set up any potential followers for the slaughter
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 09:51:31

How much has he made back in the 2019 rally? Don't be selective with the truth here onlooker. Makes you look as dishonest as shorty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 15:59:57

onlooker wrote:
shortonoil wrote:"Obviously Buffet is lying through his teeth; Berkshire Hathaway lost $25 billion in 2018. The money mongers will be out to extract every last nickle from Joe Six that they can get their grubby little hands on. " So, our friends on this site want to think that Buffet is the benevolent market guru, haha. He is a wealthy insider and he will set up any potential followers for the slaughter

And yet, when I look at the 2018 Annual Report, I see over $4 billion in earnings reported for 2018.

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2018ar/2018ar.pdf

I see you have no credible citations. Just trying to quote shorty, and screwing up the quote function.
So I fixed that for you, above. :idea:

Looking for real world data, I see they lost $25 billion for 4Q of 2018, but a profit for 2018 of over $4 billion, as I pointed out above.

By all means, it makes sense to take one event out of context, not admit it, and pretend that's part of some overall sign of doom. Sure. Par for the course. zerobrains would be proud.

https://247wallst.com/investing/2019/02 ... ue-metric/

So as usual, short is either:

a). Distorting things.
b). Has no idea what he's talking about.
c). Just making stuff up.

Given the quality of his overall economic reporting, and the babbling screed above, I'm pretty sure it's a combination of all three. Congrats. :roll:

You and shorty make quite a pair. Ready for the clown car.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 18:39:03

shortonoil wrote:...what happens now?


If it's peak, then oil prices go up, not down the way you keep predicting.
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ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 19:03:38

shortonoil wrote:
...what happens now?


1) Gasoline and diesel fuels modestly increase in cost. Formerly unprofitable wells begin producing again because of the higher pricing for crude oil.

2) The prices of just about everything slowly creep up. From another viewpoint, the currency is inflating.

3) Life continues much as it has for as long as you and your Grandfather have been alive and will continue as long as your Grandkids are alive.

4) The one difference: we can talk about the oil peak in the past.

What, you were expecting collapse?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 17:08:11

Wholesale Inventories Post Biggest Gain in 5 Years: Another Sign of Slowing Economy @SchiffGold

New home sales plunge
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 17:26:21

Armageddon wrote:Wholesale Inventories Post Biggest Gain in 5 Years: Another Sign of Slowing Economy @SchiffGold

New home sales plunge

I mentioned earlier how one of the industrial inventory marketers, construction lumber, is building. On the ground here in Northwest timber country, you see the buildup on the ground. It is not cyclical
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 18:07:30

I still think that Trump isn’t going to let things crash on his watch. They will lower rates to 0 and announce QE4. Kick the can down the road until after the election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 18:26:14

Armageddon wrote:I still think that Trump isn’t going to let things crash on his watch. They will lower rates to 0 and announce QE4. Kick the can down the road until after the election.

Good luck with that :-D I just don't see that moron having any real influence one way or another. He's obsessed with other things, like his wig, the wall and the like.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 18:35:30

The Fed isn't lowering rates. But keep on dreaming doomers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 18:39:50

Cog wrote:The Fed isn't lowering rates. But keep on dreaming doomers.

says guns and ammo guy.

I remember other idiots assuring we doomers back in 2006 that there was no chance of a recession or anything nasty like that. Who knew the world's worst and Final Depression since the Great Depression was about to come down? Me.

Can't happen here lol
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 19:25:16

Recessions are a normal part of the capitalist system. An end of the world Mad Max scenario you guys go on about is not. I've yet to see any cornies here argue that a recession is impossible. But there are no signs of one right now. If a recession occurs, it won't be the end of the world. I've lived through several of them already.
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