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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 17:33:18

Stock market looks at objective data? It was almost too stupid to respond to, but I couldn’t resist.


Well let's see; it is still below the Oct 18 high. It has resulted from a 91% increase in stock buy backs (because companies can't find reasonable returns in their own industries), hedge funds and institutional money have gotten out of equities, and it happened with little to no volume. Yep, its a bear market rally, and if it can't break its 200 dmav its a dead duck.

Glad to see that Gail has stated that we have reached Peak. Wonder where she got that idea from?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 18:22:08

You are no better making market predictions than you are paying off bets shorty.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 22:12:10

Q1 EPS now expected to decline by -2.7%. Was -0.8% two weeks ago and +3.0% on Dec. 31

8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 22:31:44

shortonoil wrote:
Stock market looks at objective data? It was almost too stupid to respond to, but I couldn’t resist.


Well let's see; it is still below the Oct 18 high. It has resulted from a 91% increase in stock buy backs

Spewing the same NONSENSE repeatedly doesn't make it more true. Of course, that never stopped you re ETP.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 22:52:05

S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year


Can’t be true because Outcaster says so
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 08:34:33

S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year


Can’t be true because Outcaster says so


Using a brain the size of a pencil eraser is likely to produce erroneous results.

$50 trillion is nothing compared to the $250 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Do the Chinese take Green Stamps, and Cheerios box top coupons? Let's hope so, or we are flat assed busted broke!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 08:38:41

Only in the minds of the willingly ignorant can it be fathomed that this huge private and public debt is not dragging down the Economies and setting them up for a huge collapse. Organic natural growth is not happening and will not happen ever again. For utilizing poor EROEI fuels will not allow it. But of course, it is all just Economics so presumably we can just print baby print. haha. Mana from the sky
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 09:04:48

onlooker wrote:Only in the minds of the willingly ignorant can it be fathomed that this huge private and public debt is not dragging down the Economies and setting them up for a huge collapse. Organic natural growth is not happening and will not happen ever again. For utilizing poor EROEI fuels will not allow it. But of course, it is all just Economics so presumably we can just print baby print. haha. Mana from the sky

You are ignoring that for every debt out there there is someone that holds it as an asset, account receivable. They anticipate repayment plus the profit of the interest payments. Yes the debtors have committed themselves to increased effort to pay it back and earn the interest due but in most corporate and private cases that is a reasonable assumption plus is often backed by the collateral that was purchased with the loan. What you should be worried about instead of total debt level is the proportion of debt that is unsound because it was used on activities that can't produce a return on investment such as government welfare programs or credit card holders living a lifestyle well beyond their prospects for repayment.
Fortunately that bad debt is still a manageable portion of the total. That does not mean it is not a problem and we do need to rein in Federal government spending to get more of it focused on real need and activities that return value for the money spent. So yes rebuild the highways but no stop studding shrimp running on treadmills. :)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 09:16:49

I appreciate your moderate reasoned replies V. However, I think where the more doomers on this board differ from the more optimistic is in how much and how soon peak oil will really bite. Because when it does, do not expect a return on investment or repayment. For the Economy will be too stalled and weak for that too happen. And the humongous Debt levels will evaporate but so will asset prices and disposable income. A reset will occur but with everybody much poorer. We can scarcely right now envision the sweeping changes this circumstance will force. But I think it is not hyperbole to anticipate that Capitalism as we now know it will give way to something else.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 09:43:17

I’m starting to think they can keep this charade going until the 2020 election. Trump won’t let things crash on his watch. They had 7 rate hikes under Trump so far, so guess what? They can lower them 7 times too. Cutting rates to zero and QE4,5,6.....

$1500+ gold and $20+ silver will be the floor when this happens.

May even see DOW 30K. The market loves cheap money.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 09:58:58

Silver Shortage! U.S. Mint Sold Out Of 2019 and 2018 Silver Eagles and Temporarily Stops Sales

Are people waking up?


Ps- I contributed heavily into this shortage :P
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 11:13:41

Organic natural growth is not happening and will not happen ever again. For utilizing poor EROEI fuels will not allow it. But of course, it is all just Economics so presumably we can just print baby print. haha.


We have been maintaining the economy by cannibalizing existing assets for some time. Pumping reserves that can't be replaced is the most obvious example. Once the easy to reach assets have been picked things will get a lot more difficult. Converting used cell phones into oil production is not going to be very efficient. The energy differential must be made up someplace, and it looks like all fossil fuels are now on the back side of the curve. And of course, the CBs will keep printing; until the credit markets collapse.

OilPrice.com is back to promoting the Permian, with their "there is a drilling frenzy" going on. The only problem with that interpretation of reality is that rig count has been going down for the last year. It is down by almost 50% since 2014. Of course, this may be a totally different kind of "frenzy" that we have not previously seen. Constantly trying to extract oil out of a brick could do that to someone?
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... e-oil-rigs
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 11:23:48

U.S. Mint Sells Out Of American Eagle Coins, 6M Sold YTD
(Kitco News) - The silver market is seeing a turn in fortunes as demand for physical bullion picks up, with the U.S. Mint selling out of 2018 and 2019 American Eagle silver coins.

The mint issued a statement late Thursday saying they had run out of last year’s and this year’s dated one-ounce coins. “Market fluctuations have resulted in a temporary sellout of 2018 and 2019 silver bullion. Production at the Mint’s West Point facility continues and when sales resume, silver bullion will be offered under allocation,” the mint said.

Year to date the U.S. Mint has sold more than six million coins, the best start since 2017. The surge in sales comes after a dismal 2018 which saw the lowest coin sales in 11.

According to some analysts, silver is attracting renewed investor attention as both precious metals and base metals trade near multi-month highs.


https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-02-2...-Sold-YTD.html
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 12:30:38

Armageddon wrote:S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year


Can’t be true because Outcaster says so


Go right ahead. Post all the quotes where I said global debt isn't larger than X or isn't a problem. (Hint: I don't think you'll find any, if you quote me in context).

Me saying we're not about to have a global economic catastrophe just because a recession is likely is a FAR different thing than claiming debt isn't real.

Reading comprehension is a thing.

So are citations, though you refuse to use them almost all the time. Imagine that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 12:32:50

shortonoil wrote:
S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year


Can’t be true because Outcaster says so


Using a brain the size of a pencil eraser is likely to produce erroneous results.

$50 trillion is nothing compared to the $250 trillion in unfunded liabilities. Do the Chinese take Green Stamps, and Cheerios box top coupons? Let's hope so, or we are flat assed busted broke!


Speaking of tiny brains, go ahead and show where I said the debt isn't real.

If you had the intelligence of a house cat, you'd know the difference between that, and whether it means short term economic catastrophe. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 12:50:39

Armageddon wrote:According to some analysts, silver is attracting renewed investor attention as both precious metals and base metals trade near multi-month highs.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-02-2...-Sold-YTD.html


But notice how when you search on "silver shortage", the hits are overwhelmingly for (drum roll please), outfits who SELL SILVER. Imagine that!

Sure, people are buying PM's, and the price of gold is up recently. The price might continue to go up if people are worried about inflation, doom, etc. That's how supply and demand works. Same as it ever was.

However, if you want me to believe that, objectively, the world is running out of usable silver for industry, collectors, hoarders, etc. -- find me several CREDIBLE citations from mainstream news sources.

Since you quoted kitco news, at least we know that you are capable of using a citation, so that's a start. 8)

How about something that seems to dig into some actual data?

http://sprott.com/media/1834/the-silver ... y-2018.pdf

Note (appendix 1, page 79) that there has been a net deficit in silver re demand exceeding supply since at least 2008, and yet, somehow the price hasn't skyrocketed over the past decade, so there's that.

Also note that on the overall scale of 40,000 tons, the amount of annual deficit isn't exactly huge.

In fact, though volatile, the price has been roughly flat in the past decade, and in a primary downtrend since the big spike early this decade.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/histor ... year-chart
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:04:20

Price manipulation and suppression. They wont be able to keep the prices down much longer. Industrial demand is growing and once personal demand takes off, so will the price.

Silver is vital for industrial purposes. I think we’ll easily see $20 by the end of 2019....minimum
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:10:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:S&P Warns Global Sovereign Debt Will Top $50 Trillion This Year


Can’t be true because Outcaster says so


Go right ahead. Post all the quotes where I said global debt isn't larger than X or isn't a problem. (Hint: I don't think you'll find any, if you quote me in context).

Me saying we're not about to have a global economic catastrophe just because a recession is likely is a FAR different thing than claiming debt isn't real.

Reading comprehension is a thing.

So are citations, though you refuse to use them almost all the time. Imagine that. :roll:




We’ll be entering this recession with historic low interest rates, historic high gov’t, household, corporate and student loan debt. New and existing homes declining and auto sales tanking. And with skyrocketing gov’t deficits.

We are entering uncharted waters this time around. We’ll be at 0% interst rates before they even recognize we are in a recession since it takes roughly 6-8 months to admit it (2 quarters of negative GDP plus time to digest the numbers).
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:19:31

Armageddon wrote:
We are entering uncharted waters this time around. We’ll be at 0% interst rates before they even recognize we are in a recession since it takes roughly 6-8 months to admit it (2 quarters of negative GDP plus time to digest the numbers).

Well, looking at the Fed statements instead of your fantasies of doom, all we know is that they'll look at the data and decide on interest rate policy, instead of continuing to draw down the balance sheet on a schedule.

As a voter and a taxpayer, I think that's a good thing.

As is usual in economics in the real world, we don't know what's going to happen. (Of course, delusional people who wrongly claim doom is right around the corner frequently for several decades will claim THEY know. And so will investment advisors who get paid for their "advice", regardless of their track record. Doesn't make any of that valid.)

But by all means, keep predicting doom. Then, some day when the zombies are gnawing on you, you can proudly proclaim, "See! I was right all the time!!!". Assuming you can stop screaming long enough. But hey, it's always good to have dreams.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Feb 2019, 13:52:49

Pumping reserves that can't be replaced is the most obvious example.


Once again the top 50 US companies have replaced reserves year on year for the past 5 years at an average rate of ~150% according to the Ernst & Young evaluation which is conducted each year. You keep making this statement and you are corrected each and every time. But somehow it doesn’t stop you from continuing to put forth an unsupported opinion which is clearly false according to data.

OilPrice.com is back to promoting the Permian, with their "there is a drilling frenzy" going on. The only problem with that interpretation of reality is that rig count has been going down for the last year. It is down by almost 50% since 2014. 


The rig count dropped along with price of oil in 2014, but it has recovered substantially since then. Rotary rig count in February 2019 was higher than the same time 2018.
O,n a finer scale the Permian rig count reached it’s high in 2018 a full month after the SP&500 had started its fall in early October. That offset is expected given it takes time to finish wells and demob rigs for stacking or redeployment elsewhere. Similarily the S&P recovered in January but the rig count has not yet recovered simply because it takes time for companies to respond. They want to be confident prices will remain high for a few months and it requires them to sign rig contracts, mobilize rigs and erect the derrick, something that can easily result in at least a months lead time. So your rig count analysis is just incorrect.
Here is the rig count compared to the S&P 500 which demonstrates the relationship

Image

Image
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