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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Pops » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:06:30

shortonoil wrote:Your really should have taken a look at the link that was provided.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
Then you wouldn't be sounding like an A-hole. The again, maybe that is unavoidable?

Why don't you point out the relevant data for energy consumed in refining from that table to back up your claim
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:15:16

Apologies for the size of the graph, but it's current as of the end of 2018.

DJIA over the last 10 years: https://www.macrotrends.net/assets/images/large/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years.png

What crash?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby marmico » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 14:20:29

Your scam is a scam.


It took you 4+ years to ascertain that the ETP Bozo is a bozo. The ETP Bozo's model says that it takes 106 times as much energy to boil a gallon of oil in a still in 2019 than it did in 1901. What a retard!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 16:57:29

Why don't you point out the relevant data for energy consumed in refining from that table to back up your claim


http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

Lord, you are dumber than a box of rocks! It's right there in the first line. It says "Domestic Production". What were you looking for; the zest on your nose, or the one on your butt?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 17:12:56

Lord, you are dumber than a box of rocks! It's right there in the first line. It says "Domestic Production". What were you looking for; the zest on your nose, or the one on your butt?


I'm afraid you are the idiot here, or simply illiterate. What Pop's asked was:

Why don't you point out the relevant data for energy consumed in refining from that table to back up your claim


so either you have to explain how the "energy consumed in refining" is expressed in terms of "Domestic Production" or basically admit your complete illiteracy or ignorance or both.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Pops » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 17:38:03

Yeah, what he said!
LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 20:05:52

Yeah, what he said!
LOL


December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The Shale age is over, which is no big loss because it never made any money to begin with.


https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 20:13:03

PS.

If Shale Peaks the US Peaks, and the world Peaks.
That's BAD.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 12:30:08

The American shale story will hit decline. I just don't know if it is now. How much of the figures you've cited, shortonoil, are due to economic conditions where debt is the primary motivation for behavior? That is to say, debt as part of an economy which is greater than energy as the sole driver. Even if it were that important, in order for energy to actually take on that role the economy itself would have to be rational. I don't think the economy is rational.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 16:52:45

shortonoil wrote:
Yeah, what he said!
LOL


December 2018,
US shale production 8.03 mb/d.
Legacy decline 17.8% per year (89% first 60 months)
Yearly decline 8.03 mb/d * 0.178 = 1.43 mb/d
New production per operating rig 679 barrels per day
Rigs required to compensate for decline = 1.43 mb/d/ 679 = 2106 rigs
There are now less than 900 rigs running in the shale patch

Shale can not overcome its 1.43 mb/d legacy decline with less than 2,106 rigs. The Shale age is over, which is no big loss because it never made any money to begin with.


https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm


And yet, US oil production continues to increase over time (despite your incorrect denial, attempting at cherry picking). And yet oil companies continue to make huge profits, despite the constant ETPer claims they can't make any money.

It's easy to claim the world is flat. It's much harder to be credible, when the data pointing out that it's clearly roughly spherical is pointed out.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:08:03

Two thirds of tight shale companies can't pay their bills, much like the rest of America.
Tight Shale Producers in the US are Broke

Figure 1. Only 33% of tight oil companies had positive cash flow in Q3 2018. Pure Permian players Diamondback, Parsley, Concho & Pioneer had negative cash flow. Apache, Continental, Marathon, EOG, Oxy, Devon & Conoco had positive cash flow. Source: SEC 10-Q filings, Yahoo Finance and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Image

How is your debt?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:19:32

KaiserJeep wrote:Apologies for the size of the graph, but it's current as of the end of 2018.

DJIA over the last 10 years: https://www.macrotrends.net/assets/images/large/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years.png

What crash?

There was no crash. There was a pullback. The S&P 500 was down about 4.5% in 2018, including dividends paid. (I use the S&P 500 instead of the Dow, since it's a broader index, but they both tell similar tales).

For the doomers, they like to pretend anything negative is "doom" or "a crash", or certainly evidence for "collapse", etc. Even perfectly normal fluctuations. And then they wonder why their endless wrong predictions of imminent doom aren't taken seriously by anyone but other fast crash doomers.

I was surprised to read the other day that for the past 94 years (presumably for as long as there have been good records), that there were only four times that the US markets were down two or more years in a row. That although the market is down in one year a LOT (right around a third of the time), not so much for multi-year corrections, even in (often short) recessions. For this reason, there are apparently a lot of bullish stock market calls for 2019 by the pundits -- they're simply playing the odds.

Now, of course, it's not hard to predict the response by the fast crash doomers since this is (always) "the big one". :roll:

...

I think the article I saw was on CNBC, but the substance of this is similar:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... ar-BBRF69b
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:24:22

pstarr wrote:Two thirds of tight shale companies can't pay their bills, much like the rest of America.

And yet, despite your denial, Americans are paying their bills just fine. In fact, the consumer debt to GDP ratio looks fantastic, as a decreasing trend for almost ten years now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

Consider the source ("Truth Report" or not). A long time wrong oil doomer isn't credible. I can't even see the page of your link due to the plastered ad/signup nonsense over it -- desperately seeking revenue apparently.

And for the umpteenth time, cash flow isn't profit or loss. Not that I'd expect you to ever absorb new information.

And for the umpteenth time, if oil is so unprofitable, why are the majors seeing near record profits recently?

...

Let me guess. Permadoom and constant bad calls trumps everything. :roll:
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:30:26, edited 2 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:27:57

There was no crash in 2007 either, right? Can't happen here. It's always happy times for Happy People. :)

The thing is though, the ones who complain the most, rail against reality . . . will be hurt the most just like last time. Except 2007 event was only a warmup, the consequence of peak conventional oil. $147/barrel oil crushed the world economy. This time peak $0 oil will finish us off.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:30:47

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Two thirds of tight shale companies can't pay their bills, much like the rest of America.

And yet, despite your denial, Americans are paying their bills just fine. In fact, the consumer debt to GDP ratio looks fantastic, as a decreasing trend for almost ten years now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp


Consider the source. A long time wrong oil doomer isn't credible. I can't even see the page of your link due to the plastered ad/signup nonsense over it -- desperately seeking revenue apparently.

And for the umpteenth time, cash flow isn't profit or loss. Not that I'd expect you to ever absorb new information.

"American's are paying their bill just fine"

You mean retired white guys who troll the peak oil web site for oil industry pin money are comfortable? Is that what you mean?

Well the rest of the world is not so lucky :x And I am sure you will get the last word in, as you have plenty of time to troll.
Last edited by pstarr on Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:32:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:31:38

Two thirds of tight shale companies can't pay their bills, much like the rest of America.


its a complete load of Berman BS as I pointed out on another thread sometime ago. He is comparing Net Free Cash Flow as reported in annual reports, 10K's etc and then comparing it to CAPEX. His measure includes non-cash accounting items with cash items, it is only the cash items that are relevant in this context. As I have asked many times here do you include the depreciation of your house and vehicles or other property in your annual home budget or is your budget a balance of how much you earn after tax versus how much you spend? If you make $100K/year in salary pay $20K in taxes and have a house and car that is only one year old (hence have depreciated in value significantly) are you in a situation where you don't have any money to spend or instead in a situation where you have $80 K of disposable income? I've shown previously that most of these companies are effectively living in their actual cash flow (measured as revenue minus costs). Oil companies purposefully look to spend almost all of the money they generate each year in order to grow (which satisfies their investors). That means if they project revenues minus costs of say $100 MM and dividend payments of $20 MM then their budget is set at $80 MM or less.

As I have said a number of times all this information is available through the SEC or company press releases associated with their filings. Easy enough for anyone to check the numbers if they wish.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:46:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:Two thirds of tight shale companies can't pay their bills, much like the rest of America.

And yet, despite your denial, Americans are paying their bills just fine. In fact, the consumer debt to GDP ratio looks fantastic, as a decreasing trend for almost ten years now.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ebt-to-gdp

Consider the source ("Truth Report" or not). A long time wrong oil doomer isn't credible. I can't even see the page of your link due to the plastered ad/signup nonsense over it -- desperately seeking revenue apparently.

Who the f#ck are you. Art Berman is an oil professional, 30 years in the business.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And for the umpteenth time, cash flow isn't profit or loss. Not that I'd expect you to ever absorb new information.

Have you any idea what you are talking about? Cash is income. Capex is expenditures. If income is less than expenditure, then only loans bad loans are keeping the company afloat. But that is the story of USA and the rest of the world. Do you know what debt is?>

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And for the umpteenth time, if oil is so unprofitable, why are the majors seeing near record profits recently?

...

Let me guess. Permadoom and constant bad calls trumps everything. :roll:

OPEC is past peak. Europe is past peak. China and the rest of Asia is past peak. North Slope is past peak. North Sea is past peak. Russia is now past peak. GOM of past peak.

Wanna debate facts?
Last edited by pstarr on Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:50:56, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:48:18

pstarr wrote:You mean retired white guys who troll the peak oil web site for oil industry pin money are comfortable? Is that what you mean?

Well the rest of the world is not so lucky :x And I am sure you will get the last word in, as you have plenty of time to troll.

So in your mind, the figures the Fed, etc. reports about things like consumer debt only include retired white guys? :roll: :razz: :lol:

But I know, when the data doesn't conform to the imaginings of fast crash doomers, it's all due to a variety of CONSPIRICIES.

And of course, the name calling right on schedule. Disciple of shorty that you are.

...

But by all means, feel free to demonstrate in a credible way that I have more to do with the oil industry than owning some oil stocks through mutual funds, and buying gasoline as a retail consumer. :idea: (For some odd reason, the oil industry doesn't seem to care enough about that to contact me, much less pay me for posts!) :shock:

It's pretty sad that your various claims are so consistent in recent years: total nonsense.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:50:23

pstarr wrote:Wanna debate facts?

Clue in just a bit to reality, and be SURE and get back to us. Until then, dance with SL all you want. I see that I can safely go back to ignoring you, as I do 90+% of the time. Occasionally I look, hoping you've become sane, but not so far.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 08 Jan 2019, 17:56:45

The last stock market crash, the one that ushered in the World's Greatest Recession the Arab Spring, the death of the PIIGS economies and the near collapse of the American economic system, was not caused by a few bad loans in Cincinatti or the Inland Empire, contrary to what the MSM wants you to believe.

Likewise the current economic malaise and crashing stock market has nothing to do with the phony trade war with China or a few minor tariffs. That is exactly what the MSM wants you to believe. The ongoing world economic crash is a consquence of years and years of expensive oil. Brent was $80 and for nearly a decade. That crushed the world's economies again. $70 oil destroys economies. $40 oil is a sad consequence.
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