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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 18 Sep 2022, 20:39:40

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:To get back on topic :) The markets in New York open at 9:30 tomorrow. Does anyone want to place a bet or guess of where it will land by closing time on Friday. Lets use the S&P500 as the bench mark. It closed last Friday at 3873.33 down from just under 4100 the Friday before.
My Bearish guess is about 3680.


I'm rootin' for 3000. Go S&P500! At least then we'll have an almost crash to talk about, after 24 parts and years of pretending, we'll FINALLY have something to talk about,market crash wise.

Well come Friday we will see who has the best grasp of the facts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Sep 2022, 21:20:45

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:To get back on topic :) The markets in New York open at 9:30 tomorrow. Does anyone want to place a bet or guess of where it will land by closing time on Friday. Lets use the S&P500 as the bench mark. It closed last Friday at 3873.33 down from just under 4100 the Friday before.
My Bearish guess is about 3680.


I'm rootin' for 3000. Go S&P500! At least then we'll have an almost crash to talk about, after 24 parts and years of pretending, we'll FINALLY have something to talk about,market crash wise.

Well come Friday we will see who has the best grasp of the facts.


There are no facts in the future. But I'll root for S&P500 being 3000 regardless!!
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 18 Sep 2022, 21:25:11

AdamB wrote:
Armageddon wrote:
AdamB wrote:I fit in with many crowds, including science deniers, government institutions, Qanon nutters and Happy Mcpeaksters, academia, hill billys and gun nuts, eggheaded scientists across 3 scientific fields, both American political parties and so on and so forth.

Spoken like a true left wing loon liberal.


Being a card carrying independent, I find your thoughts on the matter as entertaining as your thoughts on evolution.



Let me know when you find that transitional fossil showing a specie changing kinds
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 18 Sep 2022, 22:19:03

Armageddon wrote:Let me know when you find that transitional fossil showing a specie changing kinds


Not quite sure what you mean. According to what you SAID, well, it's in my sig line. According to you, dem whales iz big!
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 19 Sep 2022, 10:00:13

AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:To get back on topic :) The markets in New York open at 9:30 tomorrow. Does anyone want to place a bet or guess of where it will land by closing time on Friday. Lets use the S&P500 as the bench mark. It closed last Friday at 3873.33 down from just under 4100 the Friday before.
My Bearish guess is about 3680.


I'm rootin' for 3000. Go S&P500! At least then we'll have an almost crash to talk about, after 24 parts and years of pretending, we'll FINALLY have something to talk about,market crash wise.

Well come Friday we will see who has the best grasp of the facts.


There are no facts in the future. But I'll root for S&P500 being 3000 regardless!!

The facts are present but will undoubtedly change in the future but in one week not much.
I placed my estimate on the facts as they are and the likely outcome for the week not some dramatic change I dream of that is ,while not impossible, highly unlikely.
Open this morning +30 minutes S&P down 0.23% to 3864
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 24

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Sep 2022, 17:22:56

vtsnowedin wrote:
AdamB wrote:There are no facts in the future. But I'll root for S&P500 being 3000 regardless!!

The facts are present but will undoubtedly change in the future but in one week not much.

Gravity maybe existing tomorrow has nothing to do with your presumption of facts today in the markets translating to a fact in the future. Although I'd say the odds are high that the markets will exist come Friday.
I placed my estimate on the facts as they are and the likely outcome for the week not some dramatic change I dream of that is ,while not impossible, highly unlikely.
Open this morning +30 minutes S&P down 0.23% to 3864.
Facts as they aren't today aren't the issue. Facts in the future are. In the meantime, 864 to go down and we can finally talk about a stock market crash!

I will be so relieved to not have to make fun of the boneheads claiming market crashes every week while ignoring the length of this thread documenting otherwise. Finally the clock will get a reset.
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 19 Sep 2022, 20:11:16

Well not going your way today. S&P closed up 0.69% at 3899.89.
The vaccine makers must of had some negative news as they dragged me negative for the day. I consider that my portfolio rebalancing itself as the down turns in that sector where I am over weight get moved to gains in other sectors. Be nice if was a net gain but in these times that is a lot to ask.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 19 Sep 2022, 21:58:58

vtsnowedin wrote:Well not going your way today. S&P closed up 0.69% at 3899.89.


Well crap! Could really use the topic to happen so the "what halfwit started this thread and then kept it going for 15 years without a crash in sight" stunt stops working.

vtsnowedin wrote: The vaccine makers must of had some negative news as they dragged me negative for the day. I consider that my portfolio rebalancing itself as the down turns in that sector where I am over weight get moved to gains in other sectors. Be nice if was a net gain but in these times that is a lot to ask.


So you don't day trade but you pay...a bunch of attention during the day? Or just some at the beginning and end?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 20 Sep 2022, 08:28:51

AdamB wrote:
So you don't day trade but you pay...a bunch of attention during the day? Or just some at the beginning and end?

I don't day trade at all. I tend to buy in a couple of times a month when cash arrives from my retirement accounts. I have cashed out profits at times to make major purchases but that has been about one every six months. Of course I sell losers to minimize taxes when doing that.
During this recent decline from last November I have sold nothing so have realized no loss from it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 20 Sep 2022, 08:34:58

Like many hobbies I have had over the years I first became very interested almost to the point of obsession and kept the screen open constantly and refreshed as needed. This works well enough while you are learning the fundamentals and some of the details. Then it goes to a stage where there is nothing new and I turn my time back to other things and only go to it as needed so I'm down to a couple of checks per day just to monitor it or reinvest any dividends that show up. Perhaps I'll get down to once a month in time.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby Tuike » Tue 20 Sep 2022, 15:46:18

In this evening's tv news, there was speculation about U.S. interest rate rise tomorrow. When U.S. rises rates, money spigot is tightened in developing countries, causing shortage in basic neccesites. There are over 10,000 energy and food related riots all over the world since last November! 8O
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 20 Sep 2022, 18:07:17

Tuike wrote:In this evening's tv news, there was speculation about U.S. interest rate rise tomorrow. When U.S. rises rates, money spigot is tightened in developing countries, causing shortage in basic neccesites. There are over 10,000 energy and food related riots all over the world since last November! 8O

That is interesting and something I had not considered before.
Off hand I would not think rates here in the USA would have that dramatic effect on local conditions in the third world.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 04:44:00

vtsnowedin wrote:Like many hobbies I have had over the years I first became very interested almost to the point of obsession and kept the screen open constantly and refreshed as needed. This works well enough while you are learning the fundamentals and some of the details. Then it goes to a stage where there is nothing new and I turn my time back to other things and only go to it as needed so I'm down to a couple of checks per day just to monitor it or reinvest any dividends that show up. Perhaps I'll get down to once a month in time.

I'm like that too. I keep my screen open all session. I also leave it up after the market closes, for a while. I like to strategize about what to do next. I sort the data by all kinds of metrics. I look for where I am weak. I look for what is undercapitalized. I look at my watch lists, wondering if that one thing is cheap enough now. I look up new stocks. I think staying curious is important. I don't know how many times a stock has done a one time thing and I've been there to catch it. It doesn't happen that often, but it does happen often enough that the reward I get for doing it is enough to keep me interested in watching more of the time than not.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 10:51:45

evilgenius wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Like many hobbies I have had over the years I first became very interested almost to the point of obsession and kept the screen open constantly and refreshed as needed. This works well enough while you are learning the fundamentals and some of the details. Then it goes to a stage where there is nothing new and I turn my time back to other things and only go to it as needed so I'm down to a couple of checks per day just to monitor it or reinvest any dividends that show up. Perhaps I'll get down to once a month in time.

I'm like that too. I keep my screen open all session. I also leave it up after the market closes, for a while. I like to strategize about what to do next. I sort the data by all kinds of metrics. I look for where I am weak. I look for what is undercapitalized. I look at my watch lists, wondering if that one thing is cheap enough now. I look up new stocks. I think staying curious is important. I don't know how many times a stock has done a one time thing and I've been there to catch it. It doesn't happen that often, but it does happen often enough that the reward I get for doing it is enough to keep me interested in watching more of the time than not.


So would you say that you are almost a day trader type? Or just a "want to be informed daily" type, which strikes me as different, always watching not to trade so much as to be bleeding edge when you do pull the trigger to invest?
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 14:17:31

Will the FED pivot at 25k Dow? Or will they let it fall to 20k?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 14:49:13

Armageddon wrote:Will the FED pivot at 25k Dow? Or will they let it fall to 20k?


Whenever, I'll bet they can't do it as well as Chubby could.

Image
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 19:39:56

Armageddon wrote:Will the FED pivot at 25k Dow? Or will they let it fall to 20k?


Inflation is a worse danger then a stock market collapse. Biden’s idiotic policies have produced record levels of inflation, and Inflation will progressively wipe out the wealth of the middle class if the FED doesn’t stop it, whereas a stock market collapse is really just a buying opportunity to pick up some good stocks really really cheap.

Cheers!
Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to f#@% things up---Barack Obama
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 22:49:06

I don't think the Fed can push it down to 20K unless they manage a big enough recession to make corporate profit margins low enough to justify it.
One thing they don't seem to realize is that raising rates is by itself inflationary as it increase the cost of borrowed money which much of society depends on on several levels from house mortgages to car loans and credit card balances.
If they want to fight inflation they need to really increase the supply of domestically produced energy which in turn would reduce the price of everything from food to airline tickets. That and government over spending were the real causes of inflation and until they fix the real cause all their other attempts will only make things worse.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 23:07:18

vtsnowedin wrote: That and government over spending were the real causes of inflation and until they fix the real cause all their other attempts will only make things worse.


US government annual deficit in billion $ from right after Obama recovered America from Bush's recession:

2010 $1,294
2011 $1,300
2012 $1,077
2013 $680
2014 $485
2015 $442
2016 $585
2017 $665
2018 $779
2019 $984
2020 $3,132
2021 $2,772

Overspending is right. Obama did an outstanding job of keeping the deficit low, then Trump came along and screwed the pooch more and more every year until the attempted coup, and Joe is apparently fighting back and bringing it back down again. He has a long way to go to recover from The Greatest Recession Since The Great Depression though. The good news is he learned from someone who had already done it, and he has already started to fix the huge deficit Trump decided to create. And for the record, the deficit for 2022 looks to be WAY lower than 2021, by like a trillion dollars or more. Lets hear it for an administration working the problem like Obama did! Go Joe with more fiscally responsible government!! :)
What does a science denier look like?

Armageddon » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 10:47:28
whales are a perfect example as to why evolution is wrong. Nothing can evolve into something that enormous. There is no explanation for it getting that big. end of discussion
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 25

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 22 Sep 2022, 23:20:39

HA HA.
Both 2020 and 2021 are Biden years and even if they get it down to the "projected "1.0 trillion for 2022 that will be higher then Trump's worst year fighting Covid.
It is like He blew his budget buying a Mercedes last year but this year he's going to park it and drive a Ford. You (we) are still paying for the Mercedes.
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