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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 May 2021, 22:32:29

Commodity prices over last year...
Lumber: +265%
WTI Crude: +210%
Gasoline: +182%
Brent Crude +163%
Heating Oil: +107%
Corn: +84%
Copper: +83%
Soybeans: +72%
Silver: +65%
Sugar: +59%
Cotton: +54%
Platinum: +52%
Natural Gas: +43%
Palladium: +32%
Wheat: +19%
Coffee: +13%
Gold: +3%


Yeah, there’s no inflation. Keep printing baby
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Pops » Sun 02 May 2021, 07:37:28

Good list, that's the reason I say I have no idea what to do.

Because I'm getting a little long in the tooth I've worked hard the last few years to put money in the bank. I've been reasonably successful. Now, money in the bank is either:
a) deflating away in a puff of green smoke and I should spend it on tangibles ASAP
or
b) Cash is King because Uncle Sugar will defend it to the end! Markets are in a mega-bubble blown by a decade of government viagra— including commodities now fluffed by the pandemic that contorted supply/demand creating temporary scarcity, not to mention trump tariffs, plus trump tax giveaway, plus overstimulated consumers that have created meta-bubbles everywhere because at 0 interest who cares?.

Options are:
1) Bunker up! (always my #1, LOL)
b) Break out the Jiffy-Pop
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 02 May 2021, 08:40:09

I was reading a financial analysis that there is simply too much excess cash in circulation in the hands of the wealthy with no real place to put it where it can appreciate. Which explains why Bitcoin and altcoins are going through the roof. Which kind of for me foretells some big crash ahead. But who knows when.

It's strange because my farm workers are still stretching their dollars able to feed themselves for $15 a week and yet you have these reams and reams of excess cash floating around. It is almost like the dollar functions as 2 currencies, one for the poor and one for the very wealthy. I keep marveling at how here in Panama the US$ can still buy you so much more than it does in the US. Something doesn't make sense.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Pops » Mon 03 May 2021, 07:52:02

That makes sense, Ibon. It is what one would expect when trickle-up has reached it's desired goal.

Regular people pay rent, buy clothes and food: it's what makes the world go round. The rich can only eat so much, so they invest.

What happens when there isn't any place to put money to work? The worth of money, just like the worth of unneeded employees falls to zero.

Image

And a longer view

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 May 2021, 11:31:11

Ford cuts production at two German plants due to chip shortage


Just wait until you see the silver shortages. Everything you use on a daily basis requires silver and all new green technology requires it too. Running a 300 million oz deficit these past several years. Buckle up son
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 May 2021, 17:49:59

Armageddon wrote:Ford cuts production at two German plants due to chip shortage


Just wait until you see the silver shortages. Everything you use on a daily basis requires silver and all new green technology requires it too. Running a 300 million oz deficit these past several years. Buckle up son

And yet, as typical for you, no citations, much less CREDIBLE citations.

If you're citing the folks who sell silver (as I strongly suspect), good luck not getting taken for a ride.

For example:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/437393 ... emand-data

(I'll just point out how re the graph for exhibit one, both the above ground silver supply (MUCH of which can be recycled, if the price gets high enough) AND the annual world silver mine production have increased 4 to 5 fold over the past 70ish years -- the opposite of the idea that we're "running out of silver".


But I know... you'll only believe what you want to hear, no matter how bad your track record is over time, re your claims of constant hyperinflation, market "collapses", and on and on.

As usual, I'll go with real world numbers, economic logic, etc. instead of arm waving and histrionics from the always-fast-crash-doomers.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 03 May 2021, 18:21:44

Armageddon wrote:Ford cuts production at two German plants due to chip shortage


Just wait until you see the silver shortages. Everything you use on a daily basis requires silver and all new green technology requires it too. Running a 300 million oz deficit these past several years. Buckle up son


In the case of precious metals such as silver and gold, there is plenty of this material in existence that isn't earmarked for manufacturing purposes. It may cost more to purchase it, but we are certainly not in danger of running out anytime soon. I'd worry more about metals such as copper that people generally don't purchase as an investment. A recent article https://www.northernminer.com/news/gold ... 0in%202024 suggested that a serious effort to electrify the world economy and build out renewable energy sources would increase the demand for copper by 600 to 900 percent by 2030. I think it would be extremely challenging, perhaps impossible, for the mining industry to ramp up copper production that much.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 May 2021, 18:44:02

yellowcanoe wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Ford cuts production at two German plants due to chip shortage


Just wait until you see the silver shortages. Everything you use on a daily basis requires silver and all new green technology requires it too. Running a 300 million oz deficit these past several years. Buckle up son


In the case of precious metals such as silver and gold, there is plenty of this material in existence that isn't earmarked for manufacturing purposes. It may cost more to purchase it, but we are certainly not in danger of running out anytime soon. I'd worry more about metals such as copper that people generally don't purchase as an investment. A recent article https://www.northernminer.com/news/gold ... 0in%202024 suggested that a serious effort to electrify the world economy and build out renewable energy sources would increase the demand for copper by 600 to 900 percent by 2030. I think it would be extremely challenging, perhaps impossible, for the mining industry to ramp up copper production that much.

Well, I do some google searching, and I see estimates ranging from much less than 100% demand in copper growth by 2030 up to a doubling of copper demand by 2030.

About an order of magitude less than your uncited article claims.

I certainly think copper prices could increase as the green buildout proceeds, but that doesn't mean economic disaster. I own some Freeport McMoran (bought at MUCH lower prices) as a hedge against such a copper rise, and recently I saw copper at $4.50 a pound, which was near record highs, but for the past 15 years it's only about a third above the average price of around $3 a pound -- during which time EV's and green energy haven't been exactly a secret.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1476/copper ... chart-data

And if the price gets high enough, more recycling will be more of a thing, and trying to use substitutes will be much more strongly motivated.

Every economic challenge isn't doom and every worst case scenario isn't credible.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 May 2021, 18:52:10

My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world. I’ll take his word. He said we have been using nearly 1 billion ounces per year and only producing 700 million for the past several years. He said production is declining and demand is skyrocketing and says this trend will continue with all this new green initiative.


So yeah, let’s listen to our moron resident PO deniers to educate us about silver too.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby diemos » Mon 03 May 2021, 19:04:05

Armageddon wrote:My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world.


LOL.

Someone who has no reason to talk their book. /sarc
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 May 2021, 19:09:14

diemos wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world.


LOL.

Someone who has no reason to talk their book. /sarc



No, this is somebody who knows the industries numbers.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 03 May 2021, 20:06:55

diemos wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world.


LOL.

Someone who has no reason to talk their book. /sarc


LOL indeed. This is someone who slobbers over every word Alex Jones spews, and fell for oil carnival barkers without for a second thinking for himself.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 03 May 2021, 20:15:50

How can anybody take a PO denier serious? I know I can’t.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 May 2021, 23:56:15

diemos wrote:
Armageddon wrote:My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world.


LOL.

Someone who has no reason to talk their book. /sarc

And someone he doesn't name. And someone he doesn't cite. And given his track record, we have no reason at all to believe his claim.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 May 2021, 00:04:41

Armageddon wrote:How can anybody take a PO denier serious? I know I can’t.

And we should take YOU seriously, why, exactly? For poor (or often no) citations? For a terrible track record re your predictions for 15 years? For lacking the education to use "seriously" instead of "serious" in a sentence? (which was taught in elementary school when I grew up).

And HOW MANY DECADES must the claims of fast crash peak oil doom be proven dead WRONG, again and again, until the standard fast crash peak oil doomers should NOT be taken seriously in that delusional mind of yours?

The credible data now points to "peak oil" being likely peak DEMAND as EV's replace ICE's in coming decades -- NOT quickly running out of oil.

But of course you should know that by now, given how much time you spend here spewing stories of insta-doom economics based on cherry picking what you want to believe.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 05 May 2021, 08:18:16

Says the guy who says there’s no inflation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 07 May 2021, 19:45:57

Starvinglion is banned? Not good
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 08 May 2021, 19:05:07

Armageddon wrote:My source is the owner of one of the largest silver mines in the world. I’ll take his word. He said we have been using nearly 1 billion ounces per year and only producing 700 million for the past several years. He said production is declining and demand is skyrocketing and says this trend will continue with all this new green initiative.


So yeah, let’s listen to our moron resident PO deniers to educate us about silver too.

Speaking of morons, given your track record and accuracy re short term predictions of doom: :lol: :lol: :lol:

So you just steadfastly refuse to use ANY credible, CITED sources? Is this because your claims are, re your TRACK RECORD, pure BS?

Surely you can do better than THAT. :?:


Actually, given it's you, probably not, but come on, show us SOMETHING besides the usual completely credibility free, empty rhetoric and empty name calling, worthy of only a five year old.

Or is all you have PURE BS, as I suspect?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 08 May 2021, 19:08:29

Armageddon wrote:Says the guy who says there’s no inflation.


In the real world (not your empty mind, of course), inflation isn't high on a YOY basis until it actually IS, over a period of at least a couple of quarters.

Because, for many good reasons, the Fed is FAR more credible than you are, no matter how much you whine.

But of course, let's pretend you haven't been dead wrong re your claims for a good 15 years because you don't want us to remember that, and you might call us names. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 21

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 08 May 2021, 19:10:30

Armageddon wrote:Starvinglion is banned? Not good

Or maybe that's a hint of your future, given the lack of veracity of his claims and how often he resorted to childish insults vs. facts, logic, or CREDIBLE citations. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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