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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 07:58:30

Central banks have been buying nearly 20% of the world's gold supply, approaching the highest levels since the Nixon era, compared with being net sellers from 1971 through 2010: Bloomberg Intelligence's


What do they know?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 08:11:53

German Industrial Production Crashes By Most In A Decade


Worldwide depression is on the way. Central banks have cut rates to zero and even below zero and are printing massive money and it’s not helping.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 09:18:09

Worldwide depression is on the way. Central banks have cut rates to zero and even below zero and are printing massive money and it’s not helping


Debt expansion is no longer resulting in GDP increases. For the world economy during 2018 it required $6.60 in additional debt to generate $1 in increased GDP. In 2019 it will have required $19.37, and in 2020 it will require $135. The central banks are pushing on a string. This situation is growing exponentially right along with the debt.

Debt growth is following petroleum depletion almost perfectly. The Etp function is a measure of petroleum depletion. By 2022 the debt formation rate (which destroys the currency in circulation) will be equal to the world's total stock of currency. Petroleum's leverage in the economy on the way down is following the same leverage path that it provided on the way up. Over $300 trillion in debt will implode as a result of the liquidity shortages. The ensuing monetary paralysis will shut down the petroleum industry, and the oil age will be over; right on schedule!

Pelsoi is saying that Trump is destroying civilization? What a brain dead twerp! The political system will be completely useless to alleviate the coming disaster. A complete reshuffling of the world's geopolitical structure is now cast in stone.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 09:49:24

Armageddon wrote:Central banks have been buying nearly 20% of the world's gold supply, approaching the highest levels since the Nixon era, compared with being net sellers from 1971 through 2010: Bloomberg Intelligence's


What do they know?


If you are implying they know what you know, and you know what you know from Alex Jones, then they know what they know from Alex Jones as well?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 10:21:58

For the world economy during 2018 it required $6.60 in additional debt to generate $1 in increased GDP. In 2019 it will have required $19.37, and in 2020 it will require $135.


BS. The nonfinancial credit to GDP ratio in 2018 at market exchange rates was 235% or $2.35 per $1 of GDP. The credit to GDP ratio was slightly lower at 217% per PPP exchange rates.

https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/f1.1

Fix your debt chart or STFU.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 10:57:05

The nonfinancial credit to GDP ratio in 2018 at market exchange rates was 235% or $2.35 per $1 of GDP. The credit to GDP ratio was slightly lower at 217% per PPP exchange rates.


Debt is rated as either government, private or the sum of both. Non-financial is irrelevant; kind of like you.


Worldwide depression is on the way. Central banks have cut rates to zero and even below zero and are printing massive money and it’s not helping


Debt expansion is no longer resulting in GDP increases. For the world economy during 2018 it required $6.60 in additional debt to generate $1 in increased GDP. In 2019 it will have required $19.37, and in 2020 it will require $135. The central banks are pushing on a string. This situation is growing exponentially right along with the debt.

Debt growth is following petroleum depletion almost perfectly. The Etp function is a measure of petroleum depletion. By 2022 the debt formation rate (which destroys the currency in circulation) will be equal to the world's total stock of currency. Petroleum's leverage in the economy on the way down is following the same leverage path that it provided on the way up. Over $400 trillion in debt will implode as a result of the liquidity shortages. The ensuing monetary paralysis will shut down the petroleum industry, and the oil age will be over; right on schedule!

Pelsoi is saying that Trump is destroying civilization? What a brain dead twerp! The political system will be completely useless to alleviate the coming disaster. A complete reshuffling of the world's geopolitical structure is now cast in stone.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 11:05:16

Armageddon wrote:Farce... they WILL NOT tell you that TODAY there are LESS people actually working/in the work force than during the last meltdown.. 100% PROPAGANDA...

Gregory Manorino

RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGT. Because the official government stats prepared by economists with good data instead of bozo guesswork based on wanting doom don't matter. Only paranoia and empty claims of conspiracy matter.

If science worked as well as perma-doomer predictions, we'd still be living in caves. :idea:

If you've been wrong for a decade to a decade and a half (depending on which quotes folks are digging up on you from this site), why not try outright desperation when your clown uniform is glowing brightly?

And I see that you're following the usual pattern of terrific, explicit citations. But I see there is a youtube perma-doomer clown with a similar sounding name (which you can't spell, similar to your usual level of "research") , so yeah, that's right up your alley.

I see this idiot has 1252 youtube videos, based on a quick search. If he says "fake data" many, many, times, does that automatically make it true? :o

Just as credible as "Twitter" for a citation. :roll:

....

MEANWHILE in the real world, instead, the market is UN-crashing again today, with much stronger than expected US job numbers.

Of course, in your mind, that cannot possibly be true because the doom-o-sphere has been wrongly predicting doom for QUITE A FEW DECADES. :!: :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 11:52:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I see this idiot has 1252 youtube videos, based on a quick search. If he says "fake data" many, many, times, does that automatically make it true? :o


Oh SNAP!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 13:11:54

MEANWHILE in the real world, instead, the market is UN-crashing again today, with much stronger than expected US job numbers.


The market looks like it is up by some $160 billion a month that the FED is pumping into it. The job numbers improved because the strike at GM is over, and 44,000 people went back to work. The Canadian jobs numbers look like a depression is in the works; and it is.

Blatant stupidity is just like oil; there is no substitute for it.

Of course, in your mind, that cannot possibly be true because the doom-o-sphere has been wrongly predicting doom for QUITE A FEW DECADES.


How do you figure that they were wrong? Reserves are not being replaced, the shale miracle is dying, and the world is buried in irrevocable debt. The only thing keeping the economic heart beat going is massive injections of stimulants that are killing the patient. Your bullshit meter has been pegged at max for QUITE A FEW DECADES.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 13:22:36

Technical charts using reference points prior to QE are obviously useless.

The S&P 500 is doing a parabola after the start of QE in 2008.

At some point a parabola will move back in time though.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 14:04:18

Oil Jumps After OPEC Agrees To 500,000 bpd Production Cut
The group of more than 20 producers agreed to an extra 500,000 barrels per day in cuts for the first quarter of 2020, taking the total to 1.7 million bpd, or 1.7% of global demand, in hopes of boosting sagging oil prices in an environment where Saudi Arabia has been increasingly vocal in accusing cartel members and other producers of not sticking to pre-agreed quota levels.


OPEC can't make it on $50 oil; obviously! This cut is after more than 5 mb/d have been pulled off the market from Venezuela, and Iran. The world's economy is already in taters, and can not afford higher priced oil. OPEC can not continue with the present price structure; their cost of production is ever going up as their old tired fields deplete out. The Saudi are blowing it out their butt; demand, which is already weak, will decline if the price is increased. The ME is now trying to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller, and the central banks can no longer support a dying economy by conjuring up more debt. The JIG is almost up, and war is the last resort of the incompetent.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil-ju ... uction-cut
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 14:14:30

Fed balance sheet expansion since September: $306 billion


We haven’t seen anything yet
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 14:55:01

Armageddon wrote:We haven’t seen anything yet



Wake me when real doom arrives.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 15:22:45

shortonoil wrote:
MEANWHILE in the real world, instead, the market is UN-crashing again today, with much stronger than expected US job numbers.


The market looks like it is up by some $160 billion a month that the FED is pumping into it. The job numbers improved because the strike at GM is over, and 44,000 people went back to work. The Canadian jobs numbers look like a depression is in the works; and it is.

Blatant stupidity is just like oil; there is no substitute for it.

Of course, in your mind, that cannot possibly be true because the doom-o-sphere has been wrongly predicting doom for QUITE A FEW DECADES.


How do you figure that they were wrong? Reserves are not being replaced, the shale miracle is dying, and the world is buried in irrevocable debt. The only thing keeping the economic heart beat going is massive injections of stimulants that are killing the patient. Your bullshit meter has been pegged at max for QUITE A FEW DECADES.

Our deniers do not want to see beyond the next quaterly report or that pumped up GDP. And they believe because Doom has been kept at bay at least for some for a few decades, it will always be so. Here is a sobering wake up call. Or if they like they may have a little longer to sleep. :P
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 16:25:42

Armageddon wrote:Fed balance sheet expansion since September: $306 billion

We haven’t seen anything yet


Always with the cherry picking. Always with the silly predictions of doom.

OTOH, the Fed balance sheet is down roughly $420 billion over the past 5 years. Down about $380 billion over the last two years.

And of course, ignore how that rise has greatly flattened out over the past month, re only up about $27 billion over the past month.

Since you claim this is a new QE, then the balance sheet should expand greatly, by at least over a $trillion over the previous peak of over $4.5 trillion.

So, when it expands about $1.5 trillion MORE, be SURE and get back to us, and tell us how you were actually right about ONE THING. :roll: Because at least then it would definitely be a QE, though not anything remotely approaching doom in itself (except in your head, no doubt).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 16:30:47

onlooker wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
MEANWHILE in the real world, instead, the market is UN-crashing again today, with much stronger than expected US job numbers.


The market looks like it is up by some $160 billion a month that the FED is pumping into it. The job numbers improved because the strike at GM is over, and 44,000 people went back to work. The Canadian jobs numbers look like a depression is in the works; and it is.

Blatant stupidity is just like oil; there is no substitute for it.

Of course, in your mind, that cannot possibly be true because the doom-o-sphere has been wrongly predicting doom for QUITE A FEW DECADES.


How do you figure that they were wrong? Reserves are not being replaced, the shale miracle is dying, and the world is buried in irrevocable debt. The only thing keeping the economic heart beat going is massive injections of stimulants that are killing the patient. Your bullshit meter has been pegged at max for QUITE A FEW DECADES.

Our deniers do not want to see beyond the next quaterly report or that pumped up GDP. And they believe because Doom has been kept at bay at least for some for a few decades, it will always be so. Here is a sobering wake up call. Or if they like they may have a little longer to sleep. :P
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/you-won ... 5571bc846d?

So the "deniers" are those who go with credible sources and who have been basically right re no doom for several decades. :roll: OK. then.

I'd rather be a"denier" by your insane standards and deal with reality than in the always wrong but loudly braying camp of insta-doom but with very few (undistorted) facts any day, month, year, or decade. But congrats on all your imagined "success". Donkeys would be so proud of you. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 19:35:38

Fed balance sheet expansion since September: $306 billion


We haven’t seen anything yet


OH yesterday (singing a little off key), way, way back then there was a QT. Supposed some bastard child of QE. Mother Hobbit, a.k.a J. Yellen was saying that QE could be turned off with stoke of a key (or something to that effect). The FED has pumped $1.2 trillion into the Repo market to keep it running since it blew up earlier this year.

Now of course, the FED doesn't control all the world's banking system, because the BIS does, But, all together someone is going to have to dump $48 trillion into the system this coming year to keep it running. The central banks will have to buy the entire G7 equity market to prevent a bad case of hyperinflation, and a few odds and ends beside. It looks like the stock market has already figured out that there is only one way to go in 2020. 2021, well that is the train wreck photo. The one with the bridge out, and it is falling straight at you. Wonder if the guy that took the picture made it. CLO, Leveraged Loans, and BBB won't make it to the ground. The credit market explosion will start the whole unwind of all the world's debt. Bye, bye fiat.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 Dec 2019, 21:32:10

shortonoil wrote:Blatant stupidity is just like oil; there is no substitute for it.


So...that covers the competency of the etp author, throw in that person being a welsher and we're talking about a real sleazeball then!!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 02:34:19

Weekly GDP Nowcast: nyfed.org/GDPnowcast
Q4 2019 → 0.6%
Q1 2020 → 0.7%


Record govt and consumer debt and can’t even get 1%. Unreal
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 02:47:12

November Heavy Duty Truck Orders Resume Collapse, Down 39% To Weakest Since 2015


The collapse in heavy duty trucking is getting tougher to blame on difficult YOY comps and is more and more looking like the symptom of a real manufacturing recession in the U.S.


https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/nov ... akest-2015
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