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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 21 Nov 2019, 16:06:07

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Called rate cuts when you and the stooges called rate hikes

Called more QE when you and the stooges said no

Called for declining GDP when you and the stooges said no


Looks like I’m kicking your asses

The delusion is strong in this one. It thinks if it rants enough, that makes things true. :lol:

For example, the GDP is still advancing, but he claims it's declining. Despite being corrected MANY MANY times on this by a number of folks. Similar to how he claims every minor twitch to the downside is a "crash".

How does he keep that much inanity and incompetence in one fat head?




I don’t think you understand the difference between declining and contracting.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Thu 21 Nov 2019, 16:10:05

Minor twitch? LOL

GDP near 0
FED Funds rate near 0
Manufacturing contracting
Service contracting
Record govt debt
Record credit card debt
Record consumer debt
Record corporate debt
Record student loan debt
1.4 trillion deficit
1 trillion trade deficit

It’s time you naysayers quit lying and start being honest with the real state of the economy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby sparky » Thu 21 Nov 2019, 17:38:33

.
All this is true but as long as the US military is the enforcer of securing the world trade routes
the Greenback will rule the roost and be the world trading money

of course a bit of a shake down of various countries is now needed to flog weapon sales or put their hands deeper in their pocket
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 21 Nov 2019, 19:21:32

Since the Great Recession, global debt has increased by $57 trillion, outpacing world GDP growth.

Image
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... leveraging

World debt has been following petroleum depletion for more than half a century. It is going to keep right on following it.

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Retail Apocalypse Forces Fitch To Downgrade CMBS Deals Amid Fears Of Large Losses

The retail apocalypse has been absolutely devastating; approximately 12,000 stores are expected to or have already closed in 2019. This has prompted Fitch Ratings to downgrade some classes of notes in two commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS), creating concern about significant future losses originating from their exposure to shopping malls, reported International Financing Review (IFR).

The story behind the retail industry continues to be a troubling one. 

Retailers have insurmountable debts, overexpanded with cheap money, private equity-ownership pressures, and are now facing changing consumer trends that have made e-commerce more popular than ever before.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fitch ... ypse-fears

The credit downgrading has just begun, and in an atmosphere of highly stressed credit markets over leveraged companies are likely to fold when refinancing their debt becomes too costly, or just impossible.

Does anyone know where the needed paper work for a planetary bankruptcy is filed? The fuse on the world's debt bomb has been lit.

The oil age is ending and it is hardly even being mentioned. The next, soon to arrive depression, will not be televised..
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby marmico » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 04:04:39

Yo, Bozo Bedford, formerly known as ETP Bozo. For the third time, fix your global debt chart or STFU. You can BS all you want on the vertical axis with your ETP Bozo GIGO, but you can't BS world debt on the horizontal axis.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 08:48:54

Yo, Bozo Bedford, formerly known as ETP Bozo. For the third time, fix your global debt chart or STFU. You can BS all you want on the vertical axis with your ETP Bozo GIGO, but you can't BS world debt on the horizontal axis.


This fluff brained troglodyte can't tell his x axis from his y axis, but he says that if world debt is only $250 trillion, and not $341 everything is just fine? This thing is the definition of the "Complete Disconnect". His next accomplishment will be learning how to count to 21 without pulling his pants down. If you ever do learn how to count past 10, in chronological order, after the crash, we'll send you a couple of cans of cat food...............


OECD Sees Global Growth At Decade-Low As WTO Warns Of "Doomsday Scenario"

Global growth is quickly plunging to levels not seen since the financial crisis as the risk of long-term stagnation has developed, according to the OECD's latest Economic Outlook.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dooms ... decade-low

Yea Think?

The end of the oil age is around the corner as the last of the world's useable reserves are extracted, global debt is exploding, trade is cranking to a halt, and they feed us baby pablum. In a little over two years time the world will no longer be able to service its debt load. The word "growth" will then have become an oxymoron.

Now on to, for humanity's benefit, their next regularly scheduled program of complete bullshit!

The oil age is ending and it is hardly even being mentioned. The next, soon to arrive depression, will not be televised..

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby DoomersUnite » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 11:00:56

shortonoil wrote:The end of the oil age is around the corner as the last of the world's useable reserves are extracted, global debt is exploding, trade is cranking to a halt, and they feed us baby pablum.


And you were claiming the same kind of causes for the same kind of result 15 years ago. I suppose the good news is we didn't have to listen to the pseudo science nonsense you made up just to recycle the same conclusion?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 13:04:11

And you were claiming the same kind of causes for the same kind of result 15 years ago.


15 years ago was 2004. The Etp Model, and my interest in oil depletion had not yet begun. The Model was published in 2013. If your memory is failing you that badly it may be early signs of dementia. You need a doctor, not an engineer.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 16:12:55

Armageddon wrote:Minor twitch? LOL

It’s time you naysayers quit lying and start being honest with the real state of the economy.

Sez the clown who only cherry picks doom, cites non-credible doomer sites, calls many things a "crash" which certainly aren't, etc.

I don't think you know what "honest" means.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 16:19:50

Armageddon wrote:U.S. Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again

Our relationship with China just went from bad to worse, and most Americans don’t even realize that we just witnessed one of the most critical foreign policy decisions of this century. The U.S. Senate just unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the Chinese are absolutely seething with anger. Violent protests have been rocking Hong Kong for months, and the Chinese have repeatedly accused the United States of being behind the protests. Whether that is true or not, the U.S. Senate has openly sided with the protesters by passing this bill, and there is no turning back now.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... same-again



This is bad, really bad.

You posted this proclaimation of things being "really bad" (as per usual) two days ago after the market closed.

And, as per usual, in the real world, your claims, including trying to use doom sites as credible sources is wrong.

Markets just fine and slightly up over the past two days. IN the real world of news, credible journalists calmly cite this as a negative for US - China relations, but don't run around like their hair is on fire.

If you got off the insta-doom agenda for 5 minutes and tried just analyzing things honestly like, say, an adult, maybe you'd quit embarrassing yourself so frequently.

But when you do of course, just like short, you just lie and call people names and pretend that you're always right.

Well, I'm sure you at least convince shorty and the usual suspects. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 18:16:56

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:U.S. Relations With China Were Just Destroyed, And Nothing Will Ever Be The Same Again

Our relationship with China just went from bad to worse, and most Americans don’t even realize that we just witnessed one of the most critical foreign policy decisions of this century. The U.S. Senate just unanimously passed the “Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019”, and the Chinese are absolutely seething with anger. Violent protests have been rocking Hong Kong for months, and the Chinese have repeatedly accused the United States of being behind the protests. Whether that is true or not, the U.S. Senate has openly sided with the protesters by passing this bill, and there is no turning back now.


http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... same-again



This is bad, really bad.

You posted this proclaimation of things being "really bad" (as per usual) two days ago after the market closed.

And, as per usual, in the real world, your claims, including trying to use doom sites as credible sources is wrong.

Markets just fine and slightly up over the past two days. IN the real world of news, credible journalists calmly cite this as a negative for US - China relations, but don't run around like their hair is on fire.

If you got off the insta-doom agenda for 5 minutes and tried just analyzing things honestly like, say, an adult, maybe you'd quit embarrassing yourself so frequently.

But when you do of course, just like short, you just lie and call people names and pretend that you're always right.

Well, I'm sure you at least convince shorty and the usual suspects. :roll:




Let’s wait and see if Trump signs the bill first before you claim victory.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 18:26:49

This is bad, really bad.


Total US imports from China average about $600 billion a year. If a 25% tariff was placed on all of it (which it isn't; less than half) that would cost either China, or the US, and, or both $150 billion a "year". That sum amounts to 0.07% of US GDP. The FED is spending almost that much each week to bail out the insolvent banks. The made up trade war is a sham to disguise the real situation. The dollar magnitude of it is too small to be significant. It is a manufactured crisis to push an agenda.

The real danger is, if the US and China eventually get into a real hot war. If it comes about you will have been well indoctrinated, in advance, to support it. The MIC does not stay in business by being stupid. Since dealing in instruments of horrible, indiscriminate death has a bad PR effect, constant warfare must be constantly well engineered.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 19:37:46

Just jumping into this fist fight for a round or two.

Someone on this board suggested I read “The Big Short”. I can’t recall who but thanks, great book. Not only because of the technical info about the crash but also because of the psychological insights.

Now here is a question.

Let’s say GM got in trouble and quit making autos. But they didn’t lay off any people and are still reporting a profit. So would you not ask “What the hell are they making then?”

Now ask that same question of Wall Street. They got into big trouble, had to be bailed out, they were not sent to jail, and still pretty much have the same numbers of the same people working for them. What the hell are they making? I would not expect GM to go from autos to ice cream, they are auto workers, so maybe heavy equipment or some other big appliance. Likewise I don’t expect Wall Street financiers to quit gaming the system. I just don’t understand what game they are playing. But I’m sure there is one.

And I’m sure I’ll get screwed by it.

Thoughts?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 19:59:23

Newfie wrote:Just jumping into this fist fight for a round or two.

Someone on this board suggested I read “The Big Short”. I can’t recall who but thanks, great book. Not only because of the technical info about the crash but also because of the psychological insights.

Now here is a question.

Let’s say GM got in trouble and quit making autos. But they didn’t lay off any people and are still reporting a profit. So would you not ask “What the hell are they making then?”

Now ask that same question of Wall Street. They got into big trouble, had to be bailed out, they were not sent to jail, and still pretty much have the same numbers of the same people working for them. What the hell are they making? I would not expect GM to go from autos to ice cream, they are auto workers, so maybe heavy equipment or some other big appliance. Likewise I don’t expect Wall Street financiers to quit gaming the system. I just don’t understand what game they are playing. But I’m sure there is one.

And I’m sure I’ll get screwed by it.

Thoughts?

IMO the big problem there is that they haven't fixed the system, re the systemic risk from TBTF institutions. Those companies take risks, and when the system gets into trouble (perhaps with their help), then the cost to clean it up is socialized, and you and I and the rest of the folks who pay taxes get screwed as we pay to clean it up.

In the aftermath of the 2008 crash, there were histrionics about cleaning up the TBTF institutions, but as usual with our government, nothing much happened aside some lame ineffectual legislation.

Since banks, brokers, etc. tend to be organized under one corporate entity, what they're making is lots of loans, some of them far too risky.

Once Clinton (so revered, but he made mistakes too) repealed Glass Steagall in 1999, the ability to abuse the system was there, and several institutions took it.

(Ironically Glass Steagall was passed in 1933 in reaction to the depression mess. So when they got rid of that, no one asked, "What could possibly go wrong?" -- or at least loud enough to get sufficient attention to get that stopped.

I'm no expert on this, but that much is pretty obvious, just from reading articles. What pisses me off is that they don't FIX it by breaking institutions into non TBTF entities to prevent the same issues when one or more gets into trouble next time, as will no doubt happen at a time of unusual financial stress, IMO.

It's ironic, BTW, that if Sanders and Warren were about cleaning up the TBTF mess, and not about all the other histrionics re wealth confiscation to punish the rich, I might be for them. But it's not like even if they got elected that congress would likely vote for their policies to clean up the mess. The banking lobby is extremely powerful even in the light. No telling what goes on under the table.
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Fri 22 Nov 2019, 20:05:01, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 20:04:28

While asking questions about banks/brokerages:

Here's another Wall Street question for you. Many brokers are no longer charging commissions on stock and (most) stock option trades. How in the hell are they making money? (Except for a 50 cent per option fee they don't call a commission, even if it is, I pay zero zip nada for virtually all my stock, option, ETF, etc. trading, at least for the past month. Pretty sweet, but I do NOT believe in a free lunch.)

It's not like they all folded when that happened in recent months/years. There does seem to be flurry of mergers, however. I know ONE way they make money is on account balances related to stock accounts they pay basically zero interest (just like most banks), so they can safely make money on that money in something like treasuries, or much more riskily make money in something like credit card, auto, housing, construction etc. loans. Oh, or loaning investors money if they need it for their margin accounts. They charge plenty for that. (I avoid that, just like I avoid credit card interest by not letting that situation crop up).

But it seems to me that this interest arbitrage isn't even a meaningful fraction of all the revenue they lost when commissions were still relatively high in, say, the mid 90's.

And I know computer efficiencies help as you no longer have humans making out order tickets generally, etc., but seriously, what the hell?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 21:19:09

Yeah, I don’t know what, but they are up to something.

I know we get a lot of calls to buy our house. And when I was looking at houses with my daughter a few years ago clearly all the marketing was towards absentee landlords. They were not characterizing a place as a “starter” but as a rental possibilities.

Maybe they are all building REMs (if that’s what they are called) and finding a way to work that system.

I’m pretty sure these guys are not digging ditches and pounding nails.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 21:44:44

Ray Dalio says the global economy is heading for a "great sag." The billionaire investor says the world is dealing with financial challenges on a scale not seen since the 1930s, when economies were deep in the throes of the Great Depression. cnn.it/2OAdhia
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 21:59:59

Any details?

I’m not doubting it, curious.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 22:34:35

Bridgewater Makes $1.5 Billion Options Bet on Falling Market


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1574418601
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 22 Nov 2019, 23:46:15

shortonoil wrote:
And you were claiming the same kind of causes for the same kind of result 15 years ago.


15 years ago was 2004. The Etp Model, and my interest in oil depletion had not yet begun. The Model was published in 2013. If your memory is failing you that badly it may be early signs of dementia. You need a doctor, not an engineer.


ShortOnOil Jan 25, 2005 wrote:Because I have seen an innumerable number of bad mining deposit studies over the years, I didn’t take PO as a matter of fact. I did all the research that was possible on the subject. I calculated to the best accuracy possible depletion rates of existing fields and applied PERT methodology to analogous estimates of potential field development and production. In general, I applied all the tools available to me to ascertain the probability of PO occurring in the foreseeable future. My conclusions are that PO has a very high probability of occurring in the very near future. A risk matrix of PO also gives a totally unacceptable potential for world wide disastrous consequences. Unfortunately, I find that I must agree totally with the studies done by Defeyes, Colin and Simmons.


14 years and 10 months perhaps? You apparently didn't know any more back then than you do now, even without incessant name dropping from the others famous for having gotten it wrong.

And the model wasn't published, not having made it through technical review because scientists can't stomach silly any better than us regular forum denizens years ago when we told you that spurious relationships from cherry picked data wasn't worth squat.

Losing bets and welshing after having proven exactly what I told you years ago about what a spurious relationship was, and that you should stop doing them.

Bringing down the website being the expected response to minimize laughter.

Looks like the memory problem doesn't lie with others. What are you going to do next time, just use some dice, and when you lose those bets, welsh on that as well?
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