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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 11:47:41

October's ISM manufacturing index is 48.3, a worse-than-expected contraction
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 12:04:53

Seeking Alpha has their own recession indicator that they use for predicting a coming recession so that ETF’ s could be sold that would be particularly hurt in a down market and money could be moved int treasury bond ETFs. They use data including: 10 yr Treasury yield, 3-yr Treasury yield, S&P 500, Continued claims seasonally adjusted, All employees (Total private industries), new houses for sale, new houses sold in order to arrive ast serveral indicators.

From the plots you can see that neither of their key measurements are signaling a recession in the ensuing future. Based on where their two indicators are now if everything went completely south tomorrow there is at list a half year until a recession would appear.

Image

The market is definitely getting tired with lots of worries amongst investors meaning we are definitely closer to a recession than we were a year ago. One tell is that on up days in a market with lots of confidence trade volumes should be very high for ETF’s that track the S&P but lately what seems to be the case is that trade volumes have been benign on up days and fairly strong on down days which indicates traders are generally worried about getting caught (i.e. they are anticipating a major correction if not a recession and their trading patterns demonstrate it).
To my mind, this is all signaling a coming recessions/major correction but not something that is going to happen tomorrow or the next day. And the indicators are not signaling complete failure, more like the average previous recession.

In other words, there is still an opportunity to make money in this market.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 12:33:49

rockdoc123 wrote:Seeking Alpha has their own recession indicator that they use for predicting a coming recession so that ETF’ s could be sold that would be particularly hurt in a down market and money could be moved int treasury bond ETFs. They use data including: 10 yr Treasury yield, 3-yr Treasury yield, S&P 500, Continued claims seasonally adjusted, All employees (Total private industries), new houses for sale, new houses sold in order to arrive ast serveral indicators.

IOW, they're using a variety of indicators to try to actually learn something about the economy and what might happen. Not pump some preconceived agenda with religious fervor.

No question which works better, re making money, over the long haul. It's way too damn hard to try to make profits speculating on the short run -- illustrated by the 80+% of the time efficient stock index funds beat actively traded stock funds, especially over meaningfully long time frames.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 12:47:07

Armageddon wrote:Bank runs in China have started. It will spread to Europe soon, then to the US.

Things are coming a part and it’s happening fast. Riots and protests in over 25 countries currently too.

Is this more of you claiming you're not predicting the market will go down? :lol:

Meanwhile, in the real world, instead of pretending one rural bank run in China implies global economic collapse real soon now, overall China banking and profits seem just fine if one bothers to consult the news:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bank ... SKBN1X913I

Of course, balanced perspective or economic reality are NOT part of your agenda, which you demonstrate over and over re the quality and slant of your incessant cherry picking and proclaiming doom.

You know, zerohedge isn't exactly credible re predicting economic disaster -- including via chinese bank runs -- again, if you bother to check with google. But of course, if objectivity would mask FUD spreading, why would you bother with that? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 12:56:17

Armageddon wrote:Long way to go? Not at this rate.

Yes, because nothing EVER changes re the US or global economy. :lol:

You should consult a 9 year old re your economic fear mongering. Your credibility could only improve.

I had pointed out the big picture re the FED balance sheet on the Fed Repo thread, to correct Shorty's nonsense, re Fed "printing" $44 trillion a year. :roll: (Because pretending the Fed overnight loans aren't loans when spreading FUD is SO much fun.) :idea:

Maybe you should read that thread and get a bit educumated. Of course, why would you want to do that?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 13:00:06

Armageddon wrote:I think you are not comprehending a market crash with economic crash. I have stated numerous times that I wish the title of this thread was ‘economic crash’. I don’t give two fucks about the stock market. My wife has several million in a Vanguard fund that is all S&P, so I hope it doesn’t crash.....but it’s going to unfortunately. We’ve went over this several times.


I love how you guys are obsessed with me. And this thing is just getting started.


So why don't you start an economic crash thread and spam that all the time? Too taxing for you? The more you prevaricate and make excuses, the more silly you demonstrate your antics to be.

Not that I'd expect maturity to be in your repertoire.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 13:32:26

You can tell the cornies are starting to panic. They start the personal attacks. It’s going to start getting very interesting very soon. Let’s see how they handle it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 14:59:18

In case you missed it: Fed Balance Sheet jumped above $4tn this week as Fed has restart QE (which must not be named).


The NY Fed lowered its Q4 GDP forecast today to just .8%


With the amount of money they are printing, several more rate cuts and massive QE, they can probably keep it about 0% for a little while longer. But im hearing the Auto and housing industry is free falling. Those are 2 HUGE factors in the economy. When those tank, it’s goodnight.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 15:33:40

Well Armageddon is on a doomer rant so the Dow must be up again. Oh yeah. LOL
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 15:59:18

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I think you are not comprehending a market crash with economic crash. I have stated numerous times that I wish the title of this thread was ‘economic crash’. I don’t give two fucks about the stock market. My wife has several million in a Vanguard fund that is all S&P, so I hope it doesn’t crash.....but it’s going to unfortunately. We’ve went over this several times.


I love how you guys are obsessed with me. And this thing is just getting started.


So why don't you start an economic crash thread and spam that all the time? Too taxing for you? The more you prevaricate and make excuses, the more silly you demonstrate your antics to be.

Not that I'd expect maturity to be in your repertoire.



This thread is doing just fine.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 16:04:39

Wards Total Vehicle Sales October (Monthly)
ACTUAL : 16.55m
PRIOR : 17.19m
SURVEY : 17.00m (Mean: 16.96m, High: 17.30m, Low: 16.70m)
Lower than all estimates.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 16:44:12

Armageddon wrote:This thread is doing just fine.


Of course it is. Because the mods let you spam it with a dozen back to back posts a day.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 16:45:51

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:This thread is doing just fine.


Of course it is. Because the mods let you spam it with a dozen back to back posts a day.



Maybe they enjoy facts and the truth?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 16:51:30

Back to the actual thread topic:

Dow at 27347 today…getting close to all time high
S&P at 3067 yesterday…all time high
Nasdaq in record territory

The Dow could soon join other benchmarks at a record as strong November seasonality kicks in

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both trade in record territory in the past week, and the Dow could be just days away from its own new high.

The Dow’s record high is 27,398, and it was trading within a half percent of its high.

Earnings results have been adequate enough to stoke a rally, and the market could move higher at what is normally a good time of year for stocks as long as trade talks move toward a deal.

Industrials and other cyclicals are the best performers in November.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 17:36:50

US Manufacturing Contracts For 3rd Straight Month As Production, Imports Plummet

ISM:
Production fell to 46.2 lowest reading since April 2009
Imports fell to 45.3, lowest reading since May 2009

ZH
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Cog » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 01:42:00

Zerohedge. The go to site for doomers and their failed predictions of stock market crashes.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 02:03:09

Moderators.....When you split this thread into a new one (it is over 25 pages) could you please rename it as something like "Economic Boom or Doom?".

This will save Rock and OS from constantly :oops: pointing out that the discussion is more about the broader economy rather than the Stock Market price, which is something that that more pessimistic posters also say :lol: This seems to be one point where all the posters are in agreement!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby marmico » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 05:30:57

No economic doom in Q3 2019 in either the EA19 or the EU28.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents ... 59ac91f44e
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby Sys1 » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 06:13:34

While stock market were fine back in the 30's in Deutschland Weimar's republic, people were in misery and finally voted for Hitler.
I'm not sure that a stock market crash will occur, even when oil production will collapse.
They will print monkey money like never before, mainstream medias belonging to banks will explain us how great our economy is and people will wait in line for army's soup.
More and more people are poor workers, slaves of Uber style economy. 20 years ago, people could have quite easily a full time job with enough money to grow childrens, go on hollidays, buy a house and so on.
Now, we have a new generation of smartphones zombies unable to find a job and endembted to the eye before even having a job, thanks to the astronomic prices of university.
We are in the middle of the decline (or collapse), it's just that a curtain of illusions is played on stock markets and mainstream medias in order to prevent riots or social unrests.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 10

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 09:17:52

Sys1 wrote:Now, we have a new generation of smartphones zombies unable to find a job...

Or even come back home without Google navigation.
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