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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 03:22:35

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 06:27:56

The commodity to equity ratio has reached a bottom.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EI4F4jdU0AA ... ame=medium
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 13:49:23

Yoshua wrote:S&P 500 earnings are down 2.4 %

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EI7DqyTWsAA ... ame=medium


Maybe you should discuss things in context.

Here, also from Factset, is a Nov. 1 look at earnings season for the S&P 500.

To date, 71% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2019. In terms of earnings, the percentage of companies reporting actual EPS above estimates (76%) is above the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 3.8% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average. In terms of sales, the percentage of companies (61%) reporting actual sales above estimates is above the 5-year average. In aggregate, companies are reporting sales that are 0.9% above estimates, which is also above the 5-year average.


The blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is 3.1%, which is above the revenue growth rate of 2.8% last week. Positive revenue surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors were responsible for the increase in the overall revenue growth rate during the week. If 3.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest revenue growth rate for the index since Q3 2016 (2.7%). Eight sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Health Care sector. Three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues, led by the Materials sector.

Looking ahead, analysts see a decline in earnings in the fourth quarter followed by 5% to 7% earnings growth for Q1 2020 and Q2 2020.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 17.2, which is above the 5-year average and above the 10-year average.

During the upcoming week, 90 S&P 500 companies (including 1 Dow 30 component) are scheduled to report results for the third quarter.


https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earn ... ber-1-2019.

That page includes your cherry picked chart, which points out that earnings have improved in 10 of 12 categories since the end of Q3, as earnings season is ongoing.

So, you cherry pick earnings season at one point when earnings season is FAR from done, and you don't disclose that. I'm not sure whether you're deliberately trying to make a false bear case or are just too ignorant to understand why the MSM doesn't report earnings until AFTER the data is all in -- so the results actually mean something. :roll:

And given how the data is mixed if one looks at the page overall IN CONTEXT, this is NOT the doom you're looking for. Not that I'd expect the usual FUD spreaders in this thread to either realize or admit that. :idea: And of course, the positive outlook for 1H 2020 would never be mentiond by the fast crash doom crowd, so I highlighted that in blue for you.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 14:18:42

We're Living In A System Of The Banks, By The Banks, & For The Banks...
Edward Griffin, author of the wildly popular book about the Federal Reserve “The Creature from Jekyll Island,” is holding a conference this weekend called “Red Pill Expo.”


They are waiting for the big collapse to come. They will personally be okay because they will have amassed hard assets. They are trying to hold all the gold, all the silver, all the real estate and all the stuff that has value. They want all the tools, factories and food supplies, but everything else, based on numbers, paper and debt, that will collapse. So, they will be able to pick up everything for pennies on the dollar.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/were- ... anks-banks

Too many connections; way way far too apart. Their collapse will be a part for their generator that was made in China. The last boat that arrived from there docked four months ago. The best they can do is to be manor lords in a feudal dark ages. Without all the trappings of modern civilization all that remains are boils, carbuncles and the plague. Their princely palaces will be cold and dark, and they will die at age 40. Fools to the very end!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 10 Nov 2019, 17:51:44

‘Sign of a recession?’: CEOs stepping down at levels not seen since 2008

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/11/sign-o ... ince-2008/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 11 Nov 2019, 10:52:08

‘Sign of a recession?’: CEOs stepping down at levels not seen since 2008


After injecting $60 billion a month into the system, and cutting rates the S&P lurched ahead 2.8%. Three more 1/4 point rate cuts will be enough to bring the whole shebang down. The credit markets will be freezing up. It is small wonder that the CFO crowd is heading for NZ.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 06:43:21

India is in a sharp economic slowdown. Electricity consumption fell by 13% last month.

https://www-bloomberg-com.cdn.ampprojec ... d-slowdown
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 07:52:31

India is in a sharp economic slowdown. Electricity consumption fell by 13% last month.


The debt will bring the whole thing down, 99.99999% assured.

We need to leave some possibility that the Martians will arrive to save us.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 17:16:53

Fact of the day

There are less people in the workforce today than in the financial crises of 2008
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 12 Nov 2019, 23:00:43

Nissan cuts profit forecast after reporting a 70% quarterly plunge reut.rs/34Z63Lj


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-niss ... SKBN1XM0XB

#globalcollapse
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 02:15:55

America's largest milk producer files for bankruptcy

https://www-cbsnews-com.cdn.ampproject. ... kruptcy%2F
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 04:00:40

U.S non financial corporate profits reached a plateau in 2012. At least debt is still growing.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJMzSJ9X0AA ... name=large
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 07:12:31

Zero growth. Chinese imports and exports have basically seen zero growth for five years.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJMfPXrUwAU ... name=small
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 08:32:05

The latest DAT Trucking Freight Barometers for October which is typically strong season
- Dry Van 50.4 w/expectations of falling into contraction in November
- Reefer 49.9 w/further pricing weakness expected
- Flatbed 47.7 & weakened further since falling into red 4 months ago

Pretty alarming
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 09:06:11

Zero growth. Chinese imports and exports have basically seen zero growth for five years.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJMfPXrUwAU ... name=small

Along with the exploding debt, it is what can be expected from a world economy dying of energy starvation. But they sure sold the dumb Yankees on the omnipotent, and ever rising miraculous assent of China. The MIC and Face Book probably provided them a hand? When the SHTF, the Americans in winter can burn their early American furniture; burning their cop sticks in a world built of concrete monstrosities may not work out as well.

The Chinese are saying that the US is holding 8,500 tonnes of gold. They only have around 2,000 tonnes, and they say that they want to catch up. The real mystery is how did J.P. Morgan fail to move Fort Knox to their vaults? The IMF is going to sell its 196 tonnes, but for some reason the Chinese are saying that they don't want to buy it? The dragon may turn out to be only a fat salamander with bad breath!

The oil age ended, and they hardly even mentioned it? The next coming depression will not be televised.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 12:00:57

Something Nasty is Coming in the Financial Markets – Rob Kirby "I believe we are probably on the eve of it in that something nasty very soon. The amount of money being created is so much bigger than what is being acknowledged. It wreaks of desperation. usawatchdog.com/something-nast…

Love Greg Hunter’s show USA watchdog. Awesome guests each week.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 13:45:05

Armageddon wrote:Fact of the day

There are less people in the workforce today than in the financial crises of 2008

If you're going to cite meaningless statistics, at least try a decent citation. With your reputation, else, skeptical folks can just do a 5 second internet search and show how you're just lying yet again.

So I spent a few seconds thinking about that claim, and decided given the current low unemployment rate and how US population keeps growing and thought "That doesn't make any sense UNLESS he'd talking about demographic shifts, and then he should say that, but he's a cherry picking FUD spreader, not citing things as usual, so there's that."

So I did a quick search and:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/191 ... ince-1990/

So, aside from the brief dip near the great recession as expected, the US labor force EVERY year since 1990.

So, what the hell are you talking about? The fact that the percentage of people in the active labor force is trending down due to people retiring (i.e. demographics)?

If so, why not say that and perhaps maintain a SHRED of credibility? Because that wouldn't sound like fast crash doom, re your constant agenda? :roll:

Oh, and I just checked re the BLS, and the labor force participation rate has flattened out over the past 5 years, apparently balanced by the improving economy (despite your constant claims of doom).

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

So what's next, claim the BLS is a bad source, vs. your use of NO source or nonsensical sources like "twitter"? (Do you suppose 12 year olds are allowed to use "twitter" as a source in their papers, even in our terrible public schools?) :lol:

Or are you unable to distinguish your delusional opinions re insta-doom from "fact"?
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 13:52:24, edited 1 time in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 13:51:40

Armageddon wrote:Something Nasty is Coming in the Financial Markets – Rob Kirby "I believe we are probably on the eve of it in that something nasty very soon. The amount of money being created is so much bigger than what is being acknowledged. It wreaks of desperation. usawatchdog.com/something-nast…

Love Greg Hunter’s show USA watchdog. Awesome guests each week.

Yeah. I want to trust the call of a guy who doesn't know wreaks from reeks. :lol:

So, a financial commentator has an OPINION. Wow. That's certainly news, especially if cherry-picked from the doom-o-sphere. :razz:

That's a hell of a lot different than meaningful news. Given your inability to make reasonable judgments or report on things like an adult, re economics, your inability to tell the difference is unsurprising.

Apparently, your self proclaimed "expertise" in economics is just as accurate a self-assessment, as your track record re your calls. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 13:56:47

Yoshua wrote:America's largest milk producer files for bankruptcy

https://www-cbsnews-com.cdn.ampproject. ... kruptcy%2F

OH MY GOD.

Some old company went bankrupt.

Let me run around for awhile, since my hair is on fire.

Or maybe I can look at the news and see that diary farmers are currently under stress.

Luckily, in the real world, supply and demand is a "thing", and I think we'll most likely survive this calamity. :shock:

In other news, you could get a life.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 14:21:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Armageddon wrote:Something Nasty is Coming in the Financial Markets – Rob Kirby "I believe we are probably on the eve of it in that something nasty very soon. The amount of money being created is so much bigger than what is being acknowledged. It wreaks of desperation. usawatchdog.com/something-nast…

Love Greg Hunter’s show USA watchdog. Awesome guests each week.

Yeah. I want to trust the call of a guy who doesn't know wreaks from reeks. :lol:

So, a financial commentator has an OPINION. Wow. That's certainly news, especially if cherry-picked from the doom-o-sphere. :razz:

That's a hell of a lot different than meaningful news. Given your inability to make reasonable judgments or report on things like an adult, re economics, your inability to tell the difference is unsurprising.

Apparently, your self proclaimed "expertise" in economics is just as accurate a self-assessment, as your track record re your calls. :roll:



I think it’s you that doesn’t know the difference between wreaks and reeks. Like wreaking havoc?


Edit: I’ll concede to this one. I think reek is correct.
Last edited by Armageddon on Wed 13 Nov 2019, 14:45:12, edited 1 time in total.
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