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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby dirtyharry » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 15:58:53

marmico wrote:Another week. Same BAU. Ho hum.

Q42019 GDP up 2.1%, the FED drained $14.5 billion of repo liquidity and banking reserves declined by $5.5 billion.

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If you believe Q4 GDP is up 2.1% ,I got the Brooklyn bridge to sell you . Read below .
The data says annualized GDP was up 4%.

Ok.

But from 12/31/2018 to 12/31/2019 federal fiscal expansion was $1.227 trillion.

That is 5.87% and that is actual inflation. That's right -- The Fed is not only lying they are knowingly and intentionally participating in a nearly 6% inflation rate right here and now, and you're taking it up the ass.

This is simple mathematics -- every dollar of deficit spending, that is, additional debt, goes directly and immediately into GDP.

You must therefore back out the growth of said debt from GDP, that is, monetary inflation, to get the actual GDP expansion rate. 4% - 5.87% is negative 1.87%, which is the definition of a recession -- that is, negative "growth."

Of course there are exactly zero people who will point this out. Why? Because if you do point it out then you're a "Debbie Downer" and, by the way, not only will you never be invited back to CNBS or other "business channels" you might spook a market sell-off if any percentage of the investing "public" was to recognize that they're being screwed, blued and tattooed by these policies.

So you won't hear that. Ever.

But it is nonetheless true.

The US Economy contracted over the last 12 months by approximately 2%.

That's an irrefutable mathematical fact.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 17:45:14

Coronavirus to Begin Destroying Global Supply Chains Within Next 3 Weeks
https://www.theepochtimes.com/coronavir ... 22875.html

We will soon have first hand experience for the perils of globalization, and JIT (just in time) inventory control.

"He suggests that it is common practice at Chinese factories to ship their three-week back stop inventory before plants begin to shut down around January 10. With Chinese factories closed and the three-week backstop inventory already shipped, safety stock is running down at assembly plants all over the world."


Expect a lot of "out of stock signs" soon at your local stores. Every factory in the world relies on parts/ stock made in China. S&P - 300. Micky Ds will be handing out Big Macs in a brown paper bag, with no ketchup. The plastic, that the bags were made of, came from China. The world will truly become a Happy Meal without the box; as the expression goes. Globalism just died from a Chinese lab's wayward pathogen. Nations will again relearn the term "self sufficiency".

Maybe it's time to turn off this bio-weapon's development business? We may not survive another China melt down. The next screw up may be airborne botulism. We are playing the game of self deification, and we are playing this deadly game without credentials. Bio weapons are by definition uncontrollable, and destroy indiscriminately. Only the gods play with that stuff!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 31 Jan 2020, 19:33:42

Coronavirus Contains "HIV Insertions", Stoking Fears Over Artificially Created Bioweapon
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -bioweapon

The theory is that China obtained the coronavirus via a Canadian research program, and started molding it into a bioweapon at the Institute of Virology in Wuhan. Politifact pointed the finger at Zero Hedge, in particular, though the story was widely shared across independent-leaning media.

The theory is that the virus, which was developed by infectious disease experts to function as a bio-weapon, originated in the Wuhan-based lab of Dr. Peng Zhou, China's preeminent researcher of bat immune systems, specifically in how their immune systems adapt to the presence of viruses like coronavirus and other destructive viruses.


Funny. What do these guys think that they make in bio-weapons labs; popcorn! It got from the lab 20 blocks away to the fish market when a "subject" ran down to buy a fish. The Chinese have the disgusting habit of using humans as test animals. If they were working on a vaccine for 2019-nCOV, the "subjects" immune system went berserk, he suddenly got very sick and blew the virus all over the market, and went home and died. The good news is that the strain is probably unstable from the insertion, and will mutate out rapidly. There are no deaths from the virus outside of China. Statistically there should be several by now.

Of course, this is no help for the fact the world's manufacturing supply system is now defunct.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 00:09:06

We are on generation 9.

There are 2,000,000+ infections in China.

Hundreds in Japan, Europe, Russia, and USA.

Only 10% need to go to the hospital.

Recovery time can last anywhere from 1 week to 3 months.

Actual mortality rate is 4%, but will double when hospitals max out.

Actual R0 is 7.

The virus can live on surfaces for 3-5 days.

Pre-pubescent children are carriers only and will not experience symptoms.

Half the adult global population will have it within 4 months.

Political campaign rallies will stop soon. Stock markets will be frozen.

We are a month away from martial law.

A vaccine will be available June 1st.

World GDP will drop 25% this year.


Twitter.


I’m not saying I agree with all that, but it’s possible given the RO number. I heard it’s a 4 right. And with a 7-10 day incubation period. You can walk around infecting people before you even know you have it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 08:33:25

A vaccine will be available June 1st.


"If wishes were horses beggers would ride"

There has been major, ongoing research into developing a vaccine for SARs for almost 20 years. So far - zip. Any attempt to produce a vaccine has so far failed. All the vaccines tested to date have produced an immune system response when the subject is exposed to the virus that usually kills the subject. This has been one tough nut to crack.

We can hope, pray, beg for a vaccine by June. Putting our hopes on one being developed in time to stop this epidemic is likely to end badly. We need to use all available known means to stop this virus. If we are granted one small miracle in the meantime that would be tremendous, but we had better realize that there is a very good chance that it isn't going to show up. If the world's economy collapses before we learn how to control the monster we have created, we will be fighting this beast with sticks and stones. It is time to put aside the money, and fight for our survival. After we do win; let's make sure that it never happens again!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 12:22:55

Here is what is happening right now:

Total ongoing Stock Market Collapse for the next 3-5 Years: DJIA will be 3000 instead of 30000
US Dollar Devaluation: Most people won't be able to afford 1 roll of toilet paper with the US Dollar.

Its guaranteed.

China has so much debt that a deflationary depression 10x worse that of USA 1929-1933 is guaranteed right this minute. The solution that wasn't tried in 1929 has already occurred in China. China has printed so much fake money vastly outstripping US Fed, ECB, etc that it owns most US Assets which are now worthless because Shale Oil is DEAD and there is nothing else.
Now its selling them to NUKE the US Dollar because they have no choice: their largest field, Daqing Oil Field, is now in a seneca cliff, the Shale "Oil" scam is toast, North Ghawar is in total collapse...etc all they want is reserve currency status even if it means all the currencies are worthless shit. The RMB will simply end up being less worthless shit than the US $.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 12:39:44

This moron almost has it almost right. The subtitle needs to altered to 'A Book about NO Hope'

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 18:09:11

Cog's so stupid he doesn't even realize that the Federal Reserve no longer controls whether the US stock market goes up or down.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS DEAD.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 19:02:15

StarvingLion wrote:Cog's so stupid he doesn't even realize that the Federal Reserve no longer controls whether the US stock market goes up or down.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS DEAD.




Rates will be at zero before the election and never be brought back up again. The FED will be irrelevant after that.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 20:27:23

Cog's so stupid he doesn't even realize that the Federal Reserve no longer controls whether the US stock market goes up or down.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS DEAD.


If there are no goods on the shelves, who cares? Wuhan alone, has over 50 Fortune 500 companies now producing nothing. The virus is growing exponentially as it moves out from the city's center. As the virus moves across China everything from electronics to pharmaceuticals will be disappearing. In a few more weeks there will be no repairing of the supply chain. The FED will be the least of our worries.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 01 Feb 2020, 20:35:13

shortonoil wrote:
Cog's so stupid he doesn't even realize that the Federal Reserve no longer controls whether the US stock market goes up or down.

THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS DEAD.


If there are no goods on the shelves, who cares? Wuhan alone, has over 50 Fortune 500 companies now producing nothing. The virus is growing exponentially as it moves out from the city's center. As the virus moves across China everything from electronics to pharmaceuticals will be disappearing. In a few more weeks there will be no repairing of the supply chain. The FED will be the least of our worries.




That’s what I fear. Our JIT globalized system will crash
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 02:07:21

Shorty forgot to log out of his other account again.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 03:06:55

Armageddon wrote:We are on generation 9.

There are 2,000,000+ infections in China.

Hundreds in Japan, Europe, Russia, and USA.

Only 10% need to go to the hospital.

Recovery time can last anywhere from 1 week to 3 months.

Actual mortality rate is 4%, but will double when hospitals max out.

Actual R0 is 7.

The virus can live on surfaces for 3-5 days.

Pre-pubescent children are carriers only and will not experience symptoms.

Half the adult global population will have it within 4 months.

Political campaign rallies will stop soon. Stock markets will be frozen.

We are a month away from martial law.

A vaccine will be available June 1st.

World GDP will drop 25% this year.


Twitter.


I’m not saying I agree with all that, but it’s possible given the RO number. I heard it’s a 4 right. And with a 7-10 day incubation period. You can walk around infecting people before you even know you have it.

Except in the real world, when you read in a credible source about it like, say, the NYT Corona Virus Update, you get COMPLETELY different data.

Too bad all you do is spout nonsense all the time -- so when an some actual serious event does come up you have zero credibility. Not that this ever stops you from lots of random, failed claims.

And as always, thanks for the fantastic reference and links, re "twitter". :roll:

If it's so wildly and easily spread, why so few cases outside China?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 09:38:33

Too bad all you do is spout nonsense all the time


Want reality? Try checking the grave yards in China, you miserable, twisted, deluded fool. In a couple of months you will be able to check them in your own locatlity. See it you can find a head stone with your own name on it.

That’s what I fear. Our JIT globalized system will crash


There are now enough confirmed cases in the West that the virus will be going exponential there over the next few days. This thing appears to be unstoppable. The virus can remain viable outside of a host for an extended period, and it has an unknown number of reservoirs. It is extremely contagious, and it has a mortality rate of about 11%. We will see the same containment attempts that China has tried. Closure of all public places, and with the same affect; zero.

With China now out of the circuit the entire global supply chain, and the JIT inventory system will collapse within months. The survivors will spend decades trying to put it back together again. Our only hope is that as a constructed RNA bio weapon it is innately unstable. It may mutate itself out of existence fairly rapidly. May, of course, is the operative word! Western cultures may also have a greater natural immunity. The death rate per case in the West is still very low. Best case scenario is we are screwed; worst case, we are dead.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 10:06:57

Shocking Footage Inside China's Newly-Constructed Hospitals, 'Like Jail Cells Where You Go To Die'
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shock ... you-go-die

If the patients die from coronavirus, state-owned Global Times said, "victims should be cremated close by and immediately. Burials or transfer of the bodies not allowed. Funerals not allowed to avoid the spread of the virus: National Health Commission."


Truly scary! Even the dead bodies are highly contagious. This sounds more like Ebola than pneumonia. Apparently the Chinese are better at building bio-weapons than toasters. Wonder how the new 5G is going to work out; after 6 months of use, your right leg falls off.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 12:26:52

US imports collapse 8.7%.


Imagine what it’s going to be in the coming months.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 13:50:04

11 trillion dollars of negative yielding bonds globally.


Never seen before in history. And yet the morons on here call these times BAU.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 13:58:37

Tomorrow will be interesting when China's system starts to open again after the New Year Holiday.

They seem to be putting a brave face on the problems and like Rock...123 the propaganda is to expect a quick bounce back. However, to me, this feels a lot more serious than Sars, so I don't think the stock market during that outbreak is necessarily the best model to look at for the Wuhan (2019-nCov) virus's impact on the economy.

BBC wrote:China is to pump a net 150 billion yuan ($22bn; £16.3bn) into its economy on Monday to help protect it from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

China's central bank said the move would ensure there was enough liquidity in the banking system and help provide a stable currency market.

The virus has so far infected more than 14,000 people and claimed 305 lives - all but one inside China.

The money will be deployed when China's markets reopen on Monday.

It comes after a holiday to mark the Lunar New Year was extended in the hope of reducing the spread of the virus.

Financial regulators in the country have said they believe the impact on China's already slowing economy will be "short term".

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51347497
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 15:29:08

There are now enough confirmed cases in the West that the virus will be going exponential there over the next few days. This thing appears to be unstoppable. The virus can remain viable outside of a host for an extended period, and it has an unknown number of reservoirs. It is extremely contagious, and it has a mortality rate of about 11%. We will see the same containment attempts that China has tried. Closure of all public places, and with the same affect; zero.


If by the West you mean everywhere but Asia then there are 49 cases in 11 countries or an average of 4 cases per country which hardly suggest it will somehow now go exponential. As an example in Canada of the 4 cases, all are now at home recovering. In the US the 8 cases are generally widely dispersed, one in Boston, one in Chicago, one in Tempe, one in Santa Clara, one in Seattle, and 2 in Los Angeles. Pretty far apart and all under quarantine and several were not sick enough to be hospitalized and instead are quarantined at home. But I’m sure you will come up with an article from a doomer site that claims there are millions of cases being hidden by the corrupt governments of the world.
Oh and 14 637 total confirmed, deaths are 305 which means the mortality rate is 2%, not 11%. But given your proclivity to screw up the simplest of math problems I'm not surprised. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 02 Feb 2020, 15:40:48

Tomorrow will be interesting when China's system starts to open again after the New Year Holiday.


Chinese manufactures dump their surplus inventory before the New Year begins. Usually about two weeks worth. So they are starting off with nothing. If it takes another two weeks before production begins again, every factory in the world is going to be running short of parts, and supplies. SARS required several months before it began to burn itself out. Unless this strain is somehow radically different, and there is zero reason to suspect that it is, we will see world wide critical supply lines broken every where by the 1'st of March. The unknown, and as yet unrecognized consequences from the shutdown could easily exceed the parts shortage problem. Getting production lines to run smoothly again after a shutdown is always a significant problem. In this situation where key personnel could be sick, or dead would only make it that much more difficult. A rapid restart is certainly not baked into the cake. Echoes of this disaster will be reflected in the economy for years; at best.
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