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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 13:26:19

The markets started to crash last year when the central banks implemented their tightening policy.


you suggested timing is all wrong.

The Fed, Bank of Canada and Bank of England all began tightening in late 2017, not in late 2018. Markets rose throughout most of 2018 until October where there was a major correction. That correction was overtaken by February this year and the market has continued to rise since (i.e. temporary correction which is normal). The impact from tightening is quite obvious in the Fed balance. When the market corrected in October they were well past halfway in reducing the money supply. You can't even argue that the correction was due to overtightening given that the market has continued to rise in 2019 before the Fed ceased it's tightening policy later in the year.

Image


Interest rates have to go down as the debt goes up, or the economy couldn't service the existing debt. 


Not currently. US debt payments make up about 8% of the 2020 budget at current interest rates. They do not have to go lower and even if they went higher it would not be a problem.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 15:48:56

Car Sales Dip 3.5% in October, Domestic Down 5.2%

Fourth-quarter retail sales and GDP are off to a rocky start.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 16:10:31

Meanwhile, in the non-fast crash doomer world:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a milestone on Monday, joining the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite at record levels, as investor sentiment was lifted by strong earnings, a rebound in economic data and a potential U.S.-China trade deal.

(Red font mine, to emphasize that unlike the doomer pundits around here like to claim, there is both positive and negative economic news, and thus the view to reality is likely best perceived with a somewhat balanced viewpoint.) :idea:

But for sure, it doesn't exactly sound like economic armageddon to me. :roll: Which is pretty consistent with the economic news over 95% of the time, if one isn't constantly cherry-picking for only the scariest FUD they can find. :shock:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 16:25:49

The greedy gloat once again,, unconcerned as to how predictable they are.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 16:54:07

DESPITE TERRIBLE ECONOMIC NEWS- STOCKS HIT NEW RECORDS..

3 more bad rounds of terrible economic news

Durable good orders falling off a cliff
Factory activity falling off a cliff
Business spending falling off a cliff

Trump calling for more rate cuts today.

You can’t make this stuff up


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LjhkPCFaLvU
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 18:45:49

US Hotel Industry Contracts The Most Since The Financial Crisis


We are in free fall
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 18:58:47

"This is the third consecutive quarter of declining earnings but a lot can be papered over if there is enough liquidity. Indeed, fire up the share buy-back machine"

Ex FED insider on Twitter
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 20:40:47

No worries here, folks.

- GDPNow cut to 1% while median CPI is at 3%.
- Fed just printed $260B in 2 months.
- 3 rate cuts in 3 months. (Cog said none lol)
- The entire Treasury curve now below inflation.
- CBs easing worldwide.
- $15+T of neg yielding bonds.

Hard to not be a gold bull these days.


$258 billion of Fed money printing in just two months! Six months of QT reversed. But the repo trolls assured me the first blip was only temporary. Now Powell promises $60 billion per month through Q2 2020. He is already running more than 2x that pace.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 07:37:06

"You have record levels of liquidity flowing into the stock market. There is simply no way stocks can not go up under such tremendous support. We don't know how far Powell is going to push this."
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 10:29:48

Indeed, fire up the share buy-back machine"


Share buybacks are an interesting phenomena. J.P. Morgan is planning on huge buybacks this coming year. A bank that is investing its profits into buying back its own stock rather than loans, or Treasury paper is certainly interesting. Over the last 200 years share buybacks where very uncommon for operating companies, it is now the primary means for companies to spend their capital. The economy has gotten so bad that there is now nothing worth investing in that has a profitable rate of return. Boeing would rather invest in its own stock than planes that can fly, and MacDonalds would rather invest in its own stock than hamburgers. The ending of the oil age, and the end of the modern industrial economy it powers is a certainty in the very near future. What route the modern industrial economy will take to de-evolve back into the dark ages isn't!

We don't know how far Powell is going to push this.


The central banks must replace the currency that the debt formation process is destroying. Money is a number on a credit/ debit ledger sheet. Debt is a debit. That is now $48 trillion a year. It is almost half of the world's GDP. By 2025 it will be close to its entire GDP. Declines in interest rates, return on capital, and the velocity of money will follow the debt formation process. We know the minimum that Powell must go; how far the credit markets can support it we don't, but with one of the largest banks in the world now more interested in buying its own stock back than making loans it can't be very far.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 12:05:11

US Services Sector Slump Hits 3-Year Lows, Worst Jobs Cuts Since 2009 | Zero Hedge
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 13:52:23

While Armageddon continues to cherry pick only negative economic news, and uses "great" sources like "- twitter" with no actual link, etc., in the real world:

1). Articles I read talk about strong earnings being one of the thing driving the market to new highs (not crashing, re the subject of the thread).

For example:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeikleb ... f19a95c038

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/28/stock-m ... eason.html

2). Or, there's a strong ISM service managers index for October.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/october ... imate.html

The Institute for Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, reported Tuesday that its service index grew to 54.7% last month, up from 52.6% in September. Any reading above 50 signals growth.

Measures of sales, new orders and employment all rebounded from the previous month.

The service sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, has been expanding for 117 straight months, according to the survey-based ISM index.


But of course, when the prophecy spread with religious fervor is all doom all the time, balanced reporting (or even a SHRED of balance or honesty) is out the window, as that's not the agenda. :roll:

....

Certainly there are plenty of mixed signals, and we could well have a recession. However, the empty endless rhetoric of rapid, intense doom is, as usual, wildly overblown by the usual suspects in this thread.

For people who like to deal with economic reality, the US stock markets hitting new highs is a hint that the news isn't all bad. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 15:22:47

Video related to the actual thread topic:

Triple highs on wall-street

Better luck next time, Armageddon.

Image

Image
Last edited by asg70 on Tue 05 Nov 2019, 15:31:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 15:28:03

Goldman CEO Solomon Says Negative Rates Are A 'Failed Experiment'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldm ... experiment

Confessions of a confusion central banker!!

Given the strength in the economy, arguing for more Fed rate cuts might be difficult, Solomon said. "When you look at the economic data, I’d be surprised if rates push lower from here based on the current set of economic data we have."


Not one word about the exploding debt in the US, or the world. If you can't "dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit." I really, really hope these guys don't actually run the world! Then again, maybe there is something they aren't telling us: maybe the Martians have landed, and they are peeing gasoline.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 16:49:06

1). Articles I read talk about strong earnings being one of the thing driving the market to new highs (not crashing, re the subject of the thread).


$43 trillion in funny money injections into the world economy had absolutely nothing to do with it? OK. Depending, on how 2019 world GDP comes in, the leverage on that $43 trillion came in at 8.4 :1 against. Debt creation divided by increased GDP. Step to the end of the line, everything is ok. nothing to see here. The Stock Market is Up!

The stock market went up 13%, and earnings went up 0.001% on GAP. This economy is getting crazier by the day. How long can a completely dysfunctional economy continue to operate?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 17:03:00

OK, lets think about certain news from Europe:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/arch ... sting-turn
If *that* have materialized, eg Deutsche Bank have gone belly up, we will get very fast spreading troubles indeed.
Possibly global but at the minimum affecting entire Anglo-Saxon world.

I would really suggest for OS to consider fast crash scenario more favorably.
It may not happen, but there are precedences (like Soviet collapse to name a recent one) and if it does, it would change life even of rather wealthy boomers and X-ers who are placing too much of faith in "all hells will break loose but only after my death" scenario.

On the other hand Short should not sniff coming collapse in any piece of bad news and an odd $5 per barrel unexpected oil price fluctuation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 19:58:54

Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate for 4Q growth moves down to 1.0% from 1.1% last #EverythingIsAwesome as Jay Powell sprints to inject sufficient liquidity to offset deteriorating fundamentals. And folks, it could work. Fed just getting started.


Ex FED insider on Twitter
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 21:26:42

This is a very odd stock market crash. I seem to be making a lot of money lately. Perhaps doomers are posting from an alternate universe where the stock market has crashed and somehow a dimensional hole has opened and their posts come through to the universe where the stock market is at record highs.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 05 Nov 2019, 21:56:33

Dalio: US will have to raise taxes in coming years

National debt, pensions, and health-care liabilities
will have to result in higher taxes.

They "will either be paid by higher taxes
or they'll be defaulted on,"

Total federal debt has surged to $23T or ~103% of GDP


Oh you think? Hey Dalio, just wait until tax receipts plummet. And BTW, they own printing presses. They can print whatever they want. Ok, carry on Dalio.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Wed 06 Nov 2019, 11:15:54

"WILLIAMS SAYS FED WOULD ADDRESS NEXT RECESSION BY CUTTING INTEREST RATES TO ZERO AND USING COMMUNICATION AND ASSET PURCHASES"

They are already doing it.
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