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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 11:23:46

......
Last edited by Yoshua on Fri 24 Jan 2020, 11:37:04, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 11:36:03

I know that there's no science behind technical charts. They just draw straight lines through price tops.

Although I do think that the price tells something. I think that the economy is a form of EROI calculation that takes in all of the energy in the system into calculation.

No, I don't have a model or a theory behind me...and I even know how to begin. I just settle with technical charts.

Anyway...the central banks money printing hasen't yet managed to violate the falling trendline of resistance in the WTI price chart.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 12:10:13

Its now obvious why the price of oil is collapsing totally right now....

North Ghawar is experiencing a massive increase in decline rate. Its the first component of my Oil Apocalypse thesis. The other, the devastating deteriorating quality of oil is happening in the Shale "oil" and Tarsands crap and even in the ME.

In other words,

KSA and Canada are on the brink of TOTAL COLLAPSE because North Ghawar can no longer fund tarsands. Look at Suncor stock tank as we speak.

Alberta just announced MASSIVE cuts in healthcare are imminent.

Boeing stock is collapsing because North Ghawar is collapsing.

My thesis predicted 2023 as the trigger from North Ghawar. It is obviously way ahead of schedule.
Cog's a sack of crap.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 12:42:45

Image

Anyway...the central banks money printing hasen't yet managed to violate the falling trendline of resistance in the WTI price chart.


If there is an economic system with $1 in it, and one apple, apples are worth $1. If there is $2 in the system apples are worth $2. You still only have one apple. Central bank printing won't change the resistance line. There is still only one apple. Your resistance line is only showing the relative value of oil from some previous point. Depletion will make sure that always goes down. Central bank printing only moves the resistance line up and down. It doesn't change its slope. When the apple has been eaten, there are zero apples regardless of how many dollars are in the system.

Technology does not put any more oil into the ground. It only allows us to extract what is there faster. Dumping money into the system will not put any more oil into the ground either. It will only allow us to extract what remains faster. Mother Nature only gave us one apple. Your resistance line is only showing how fast we are eating it.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 12:45:31

Yoshua wrote:Although I do think that the price tells something.


That's the thing. You can't start with a price and work back to a single cause and effect. Price is a function of many factors. Even in the old days of the peak oil movement there was an acknowledgment of above and below-ground factors. That was to try to move beyond the simplicity of interpreting any upward movement of oil as a function of geological depletion. It's just not that simple. The arab oil embargo periods were two good examples of ABOVE ground factors. The oil was there. We just didn't have access to it. So you're not really offering anything useful in a peak oil discussion to say something as vague and wishy-washy as "I think the price tells us something." (cue scary music).

The big problem with ETP (since I know you're hinting at ETP in your post) is that it attempted to take a low-price situation and explain it away not as a glut but rather as a lack of economic ROI. And that didn't make sense because the data clearly indicated a glut condition by virtue of the fracking boom. ETP flew in the face of the facts because its function was to keep the few remaining peak oil doomers believing in "apocalypse nigh".

And that sort of warped self-serving doomer-analysis has become par for the course with the discussions here. People such as yourself offer up doomerism with little more than a "gut-feeling" or "hunch" or some improvised conspiracy theory (based on little more than suggested motives) to back it up. Hey, you're welcome to look at the world however you like. Just don't expect others to agree without mounting a compelling argument.

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 16:18:06

Your resistance line is only showing the relative value of oil from some previous point. Depletion will make sure that always goes down.


try teaching that on the Bizarro planet....here on Earth if supply decreases then price increases for similar demand. That is something that is proven time and again. The opposite is some ridiculous construct not based on economic theory or logical thinking.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 16:28:06

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned


Straight from: The HALL of Intellectual MIDGETS

Still working on your IQ test that can't produce negative results?

Welch - slang for Welsh - "A Celtic language spoken in Wales".

He had a dictionary until he ran out of toilet paper.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 16:30:53

shortonoil wrote:
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned


Straight from: The HALL of Intellectual MIDGETS

Still working on your IQ test that can't produce negative results?

Welch - slang for Welsh - "A Celtic language spoken in Wales".

He had a dictionary until he ran out of toilet paper.


:lol: :lol:
The Economy is not so rosy as the MSM paints it. http://www.shadowstats.com/
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 16:55:05

shortonoil wrote:
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned


Straight from: The HALL of Intellectual MIDGETS

Still working on your IQ test that can't produce negative results?

Welch - slang for Welsh - "A Celtic language spoken in Wales".

He had a dictionary until he ran out of toilet paper.

If you post the same 5 year old level drivel on multiple threads, does that make it more valuable? :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 17:01:15

shortonoil wrote:Technology does not put any more oil into the ground. It only allows us to extract what is there faster. Dumping money into the system will not put any more oil into the ground either. It will only allow us to extract what remains faster. Mother Nature only gave us one apple. Your resistance line is only showing how fast we are eating it.

Too bad your track record re predictions is basically zero percent accurate.

Otherwise, people might believe your game of arbitrarily picking a segment of a graph and drawing a line on it AFTER the fact, and then claiming you can make future predictions had any meaning.

But in the real world, this is the internet, and your terrible track record can be verified.

Not that you'd act like an adult and admit it, any more than you'd pay the bet you lost. 8)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 24 Jan 2020, 22:20:48

shortonoil wrote:
HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned


Straight from: The HALL of Intellectual MIDGETS

Still working on your IQ test that can't produce negative results?

Welch - slang for Welsh - "A Celtic language spoken in Wales".

He had a dictionary until he ran out of toilet paper.


The sig has been there for how many months now? A year? More? Pay up on your bet or tolerate carrying the shame of my sig line--FOREVER(FOREVER--forever---forever---forever). There is no other way out. If you respond to my sig enough that I'm continuing to see it embedded in other people's responses (since you're on ignore) I'm going to start flagging your posts. Consider this a formal warning! You're polluting every thread on this board with this hostility.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 06:24:06

Despite CB's money printing the WTI price has been falling since 2008.

Copper has been falling too.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPDd1ZjWAAA ... name=large

The commodity index has been falling as well.

The central banks money printing has allowed the debt to keep rising though. The credit/debt has keep the zombie companies alive. Banks NPL's have been bailed out by CB's. Nations have been bailed out.

Without the CB's there would have been a cascade of defaults. Demand for oil and commodities would have plunged. Prices would have collapsed.

The charts would have looked very different.

The CB's are today part of the economy. They are supporting the economy. But still oil and commodity prices are falling. There's only so much they can do.

It's all shown in the charts.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 08:58:28

The central banks will no longer be able to game the system when the debt formation rate exceeds the currency in circulation. At its present rate that will occur in early 2022 at $62 trillion per year. It appears China will be the first to implode. Europe and North America will follow close behind.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 10:28:39

The St Louis Fed financial stress index fell to minus 1.6 for the week ending January 17, it said this week — the lowest reading since the index was created at the end of 1993.


https://amp.ft.com/content/e6130e4c-3ec ... ssion=true
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 10:42:42

The virus outbreak in China gives the USA considerable leverage to conclude our US/China trade deal and send the stock market even higher. I look forward to 30k Dow and beyond.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 11:45:22

The St Louis Fed financial stress index fell to minus 1.6 for the week ending January 17, it said this week — the lowest reading since the index was created at the end of 1993.


They appear to be putting an awful lot of weight onto China's virus. The virus has not really done much to date, so one has to wonder what is really going on. 1,400 "confirmed" cases and 41 fatalities in over 10 days among a population of 1.3 billion is hardly the new Bubonic Plague. This is looking like a bad case of the flu where the very old, and already sick succumb. Is something else going on in China? The fact that this happened next to China's Bio-Level 4 lab appears to be awfully convenient. 300 million dead hogs, shuttered steel mills, and collapsing auto production would be enough to make the rather unscrupulous CCP try something to deflect the crash. Of course, US Intelligence Services aren't beyond bombing their own cities, and blaming it on Castro to push an agenda. Thank goodness JFK stopped that!

This could be as simple as slowing China's capital outflow during their Lunar New Year. China's massively over indebted, rickety old economy could be in worse shape than we have so far even begun to imagine. It will be an interesting week, or so.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 11:59:32

They appear to be putting an awful lot of weight onto China's virus. The virus has not really done much to date, so one has to wonder what is really going on.


the market responds to risk and rumor. If there is a chance of something affecting share prices in the near future the market will respond either by buying shares or selling them. This happens because so many are worried about getting caught holding the bag if it turns out the worst/best possible scenario actually happens. When more information becomes available the market will settle down. There is always a tendency for it to get oversold/overbought when potential Black Swans like this are a possibility.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 12:47:16

The WHO hasn't yet even declared this an epidemic, and the Chinese are shutting down the country. Someone's got their wires crossed. The media seems to be pushing it, but let's face it; the last few years has shown that they aren't the sharpest bunch of tacks in the box. They are still looking under their beds for a Russian!

Something is going on in China. Their banking system is coming apart, their steel mills have shut down, their auto production is falling off a cliff, and their primary source of protein to feed 1.3 billion just died. The world has $300 trillion in debt that it can not repay, and may not even be able to continue servicing, and the oil age is ending. The central banks are on a printing marathon in a completely futile attempt to keep the wheels turning. This will start somewhere, and the over indebted, capital mal-distribution specialist in China are a very likely place for it to start. And then first and foremost, the CCP will do anything to hold on to their power.

Maybe this is only a paranoid population with a bad head cold? Maybe it is a lot more. The next couple of weeks will be enlightening!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 14:19:19

After the GFC in '08 the Federal Reserve has been buying up Treasury bonds to keep it all afloat. Nothing to see here. Move along. The organization that creates money from thin air is buying fake money from the future. All is well. Continue your shopping sprees.

Haha , https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-is ... 1571218200
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 25 Jan 2020, 15:25:43

that article is dated October 2019. Hardly relevant right now.
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