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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 16:21:53

On January 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q42019 is 1.8 percent.


What happened to 2.3%?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby marmico » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 16:55:21

It was revised lower due to new data. The first BEA print for Q4:2019 is released January 30, 2020. Stay tuned.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 20:07:31

Armageddon wrote:On January 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q42019 is 1.8 percent.


What happened to 2.3%?


What happened to the stock market crash that you have predicted for years?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 20:09:07

shortonoil wrote:
For the umpteenth + 1 time, fix your debt chart you innumerate bozo.

Image

OH BOY!!!! A new bar chart!

For about $50 they can buy the software to convert that data into a usable function as a line graph. Of course, if they did that, a few people may be able to see what is actually happening (excluding you of course).

Speaking of innumerate bozos, if a bar graph shows X data points over time T, it contains exactly as much data as a line graph showing X data points over time T. One can choose either style. Makes no difference re substance.

Not that I'd expect better from you, since you have nothing meaningful to say, re economics. Or mathematical concepts, based on your posting history here.

What's next? A green line is "unusable" but a purple line is full of information? :roll:

Oh, for $0, with a free spreadsheet or many old spreadsheets (free or very cheap now), anyone with very minor experience or the ability to experiment a bit and follow instructions, can convert some data into MANY styles of graphs. Including both a line graph or a bar graph showing exactly the same thing.

Why in the world do you need to spend $50 on a program for that function?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Cog » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 20:23:11

Charts are great to show us, in a graphical sense, past data. They don't do dick to predict future events.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 21:32:16

Cog wrote:
Armageddon wrote:On January 17, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q42019 is 1.8 percent.


What happened to 2.3%?


What happened to the stock market crash that you have predicted for years?



I’ve been calling for DOW 30k. You aren’t going to see a crash for a while with the amount of printing, stimulus and rate cuts we’re having. The markets don’t care about data, only free money and rate cuts and Trump is begging for more....and he’ll get them
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Fri 17 Jan 2020, 23:03:04

Cog wrote:What happened to the stock market crash that you have predicted for years?


Why have a stock market crash now when you can juice the system at the expense of having an even bigger financial crisis further down the road?
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 09:59:09

Speaking of innumerate bozos, if a bar graph shows X data points over time T, it contains exactly as much data as a line graph showing X data points over time T.


Still trying to figure out what a "function" is? A function is a mathematical statement that describes a set of data. It is how all mathematical investigation works. It is considered to be a superior methodology to your Voodoo analysis approach. It was recognized, some time ago, that analysis by way of Ouija boards, and cans of dried chicken bones have their limitations. Ouija boards rarely produce a reliable correlation coefficient. Since you have made it very obvious that you are a complete mathematical illiterate, this is all likely to be rather insignificant to you. Practice on pounding the rocks together. After the debt bomb blows up, you may need that skill to keep the cannibals away.


Now, Everyone Pays The Piper: The End Of China's Economic Miracle
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... ic-miracle
In emulating the American economic raison d’etre, China has attempted to develop its unique capitalist model while ignoring that it too will soon suffer the same fate for the same reason: Unsustainable debt.


An article well worth reading. China also has a ASF epidemic that can not be stopped, and which is wiping out its primary source of protein. It also has a growing SARS epidemic. China is in serious trouble on every front.

World debt is growing exponentially. We are rapidly approaching the point of maximum debt saturation where additional debt creation will no longer be possible. Available collateral to extend the debt has almost been completely exhausted. The central banks are already using imaginary assets to back their excessive currency printing. They are assets that have no real market value. The world's debt based monetary system will collapse when no recovery from defaults for debt holders will be possible. Anyone in the market for a Boeing 737 MAX? Never flown; only crashed once! Excellent structure for breading rabbits.

Fossil fuel depletion is following the debt creation process with an almost perfect correlation. As depletion never stops advancing neither will debt formation. Here is a graph that shows petroleum depletion as the proxy for all fossil fuels. The outcome is baked into the cake. Complete debt saturation will be here in about two years when currency destruction from debt creation becomes equal to the world's entire currency in circulation.

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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 11:57:44

Armageddon wrote:I’ve been calling for DOW 30k.


Disingenuous. You entered into this thread way back when to say the market was crashing. Actually, didn't the thread start in the first place after the last correction? It was all about doomers rushing in to proclaim that correction "The big one"(TM).

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 12:05:20

So you amateurs like to attack Short. Yet, his and his groups findings coincide with measured sober well analyzed studies such as these. https://collapseofindustrialcivilizatio ... &search=Go
The EROEI undeniabily continues falling for discovery and production of oil & gas. And the debt situation is also well documented. Debt issuance as a substitute for healthy economic fundamentals and activity. And then debt becomes the instrument to dampen and reduce economic activity. But without this lending, it all comes to a halt. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. And as Short also correctly notes in the backgroud, depletion never rests. Oh but never fear we have our deniers here to assauge our concerns
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 12:34:15

Yet, his and his groups findings coincide with measured sober well analyzed studies such as these


Yeah, right.....the guy is a self-described artist, not an economist, not a political scientist. Maybe you should check out Ronald Macdonald for his views...sure to be just as measured, sober and well-analyzed. :roll:
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 12:39:26

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’ve been calling for DOW 30k.


Disingenuous. You entered into this thread way back when to say the market was crashing. Actually, didn't the thread start in the first place after the last correction? It was all about doomers rushing in to proclaim that correction "The big one"(TM).




Take away QE to infinity, several rate cuts and massive printing and where would we be?

It’s coming when their ammo runs out. That’s why Trump is begging for more cuts and has a massive stimulus package and tax cut coming.

Wake up son
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 12:56:06

onlooker wrote:So you amateurs like to attack Short. Yet, his and his groups findings coincide with measured sober well analyzed studies such as these.


Didn't you say, quite some time ago, that if oil prices disconnected long enough from the ETP chart that you would officially disavow ETP? And disavow you did. But here you are back to clinging to Short's discredited doomer narrative. You're just a doomer NPC, onlooker and all you've got to offer are links to perma-doom bloggers.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 13:06:51

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:So you amateurs like to attack Short. Yet, his and his groups findings coincide with measured sober well analyzed studies such as these.


Didn't you say, quite some time ago, that if oil prices disconnected long enough from the ETP chart that you would officially disavow ETP? And disavow you did. But here you are back to clinging to Short's discredited doomer narrative. You're just a doomer NPC, onlooker and all you've got to offer are links to perma-doom bloggers.

haha, doom is in the eye of the beholder. Realism my friend, realism 8)
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 13:36:28

onlooker wrote:doom is in the eye of the beholder.


In other words, we're living in a post-truth world. Not something I want to get behind.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 14:25:54

shortonoil wrote:
Speaking of innumerate bozos, if a bar graph shows X data points over time T, it contains exactly as much data as a line graph showing X data points over time T.


Still trying to figure out what a "function" is? A function is a mathematical statement that describes a set of data. It is how all mathematical investigation works. It is considered to be a superior methodology to your Voodoo analysis approach.

I missed where you said convert the data into a function. Unlike you, adults are capable of admitting when they made a mistake. I missed that, and my bad on that. (I was thinking "graph", not function, when I read it, thus the context of my spreadsheet comments. Which would have been clear to anyone with just a bit of awareness of math).

Since i had a lot of algabra, calculus, things like trig, analytic geometry, numerical analysis, etc., yes you moron, I know what a function is. :roll:

The PROBLEM there is that limited data points can't reliably be used to produce a smooth, useful function. I experimented with that in college, where unlike you (based on the content of the body of your posts here), I was trying to actually learn something.

So just like your MAP function and ETP doesn't predict squat, depending on the nature of the data, you may or may NOT get a useful function for helping smooth / interpolate a set of data points helpfully.

Besides, pretending like even if a "good" function were produced, it really shows meaningfully more than the charts in the example re the post that was being discussed -- re the trend, is spurious at best.

But let's not discuss substance, if you can have a chance to wave your arms and blabber like a 5 year old, right?
Last edited by Outcast_Searcher on Sat 18 Jan 2020, 14:42:16, edited 3 times in total.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 14:38:57

asg70 wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’ve been calling for DOW 30k.


Disingenuous. You entered into this thread way back when to say the market was crashing. Actually, didn't the thread start in the first place after the last correction? It was all about doomers rushing in to proclaim that correction "The big one"(TM).

Disingenuous, changing what he claims he's doing, changing the dates, changing the goals, never admitting he's wrong -- all stock in trade for him. (Like the poster child for the doom-o-sphere, now that I think about it).

And yet, he keeps claiming he's right, claims he's an economics "expert", and expects his ever-random claims to be taken seriously. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 14:50:37

asg70 wrote:
onlooker wrote:doom is in the eye of the beholder.

In other words, we're living in a post-truth world. Not something I want to get behind.

Yup. If that standard worked, ghosts would be as valuable at predicting things as science. Conspiracy theories would all be rational explanations for how things work.

The level of logic and "analysis" of the doom mantra crowd around here to justify their predictions in the face of reality is getting BEYOND absurd, if such a thing were possible. 8)

But yeah, VERY GOOD there onlooker. :roll: This way no matter WHAT your ilk predicts, by your standard, you can confidently later claim you properly predicted "doom", since doom can be any damn thing you want it to on any given day (or minute).

How USEFUL!!! How did science ever make any progress without such brilliant thinking. :?:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 18 Jan 2020, 15:26:06

Quick check on the real world vs. the usual braying about doom re this thread.

Since the usual suspects will never admit there are any good economic stats, I occasionally take a glance on CNBC re overall economic news, for a sense of balance.

https://www.cnbc.com/economy/

Despite all the "doom" claims, I see 7 for 7 positive to VERY positive stories re the economy / growth prospects/measures, re stories directly about economic prospects (vs. what might happen under certain scenarios, Fed appts, etc).

Funny how with things good manufacturing news, great housing news, retail sales news, employment news, etc, it's nothing but doom as far as the eye can see. :roll:

Here's links to some current examples, since as time goes by, the stories shown on the summary page change:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/manufac ... -2020.html

Returning to the good old days, re employers investing in growing the skills and loyalty of their employees? Re MANUFACTURING employers, no less?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/us-indu ... -2019.html

Gee, manufacturing output rising with all armageddon's endless arm waving about it?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/us-hous ... -2019.html

Given housing's correlation with the overall economic growth scenario, a 13 year high with activity increasing across the board looks great vs scary, somehow.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/the-pic ... trong.html

Amidst all the whining about vehicle sales (which were forecast to only be down very slightly for 2020, last time I checked), doomers should carefully ignore the positive indications for businesses here (strong pickup truck indicator). "Business is booming" is just something too "awful" for them to bear, re forecasts.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/us-reta ... -2019.html

Retail sales up for the third straight month? But whence the DOOM? Oh, the horror!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/16/weekly- ... laims.html

Unemployment claims dropped for the fifth straight week. Not exactly a picture of a "job collapse".

....

Overall the economic signals are very mixed, but the idea of near term collapse just isn't anywhere in sight, despite the endless false claims of the usual suspects.

As ASG would summarize so well: BAU CONTINUES APACE.

...

Now Armageddon will counter with some fast-crash site pointing to new arm waving on Youtube, or perhaps an uncited twitter post, no doubt. :roll: Thank heavens we can all rush to hide under our beds, should he unexpectedly report something worthy of actually being scared of, IN THE OVERALL ECONOMIC CONTEXT, in the real world, and all. :idea:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 12

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 19 Jan 2020, 08:26:58

Didn't you say, quite some time ago, that if oil prices disconnected long enough from the ETP chart that you would officially disavow ETP?


Ignorance appears to running rampant! The Etp Model has nothing to do with the price of oil. You are referring to the MAF (maximum affordability function). And yes, it broke when the central banks dumped $26 trillion in counterfeit money into the system, and it broke along with the pricing of every other asset class in the world. One can now buy a share of stock for a company for $500 that has never turned a profit, and never will. The system is no longer functioning, and will self destruct in the very near future.

There are now two key variables to watch: 1) the world is burning 9 barrels of oil for every 1 it finds to replace it, and 2) the debt is growing exponentially. The rest is fluff to keep the sheep preoccupied as the lights go out, people drink themselves to death in despair, and the store shelves go bare. We will soon not be able to fix anything that is broken, replace anything that has been destroyed, or have the benefit of a functioning government. The wheels are coming off modern, technological civilization. It may be a coincidence that it is all ending with the end of oil age; but most likely, it probably isn't.

For anyone who wants to disagree, fine. Go book a flight on a Boeing 737 MAX. You won't be missed.
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