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Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 09:29:48

Outcast, which is an applicable name: only four not very elucidating, spamming posts? What has come over you? Old age catching up?

Looks like you were right Arm. They are going to pump his sucker until it explodes; jawboning every inch of the way. S&P 30,000. Over the next 24 months; $100 trillion in new fiat is going to get pumped into the system. That is equal to the new debt formation that will be taking place. Apparently they don't have a Plan B; like a new currency system. That is hardly what one can call "reassuring". They don't even have a plan to save the stock market, their favorite vehicle of misinformation. The stock market is going up, and the bond market is going down. They will have completely destroyed any future value of assets by the time they are finished. No starting over again after the smoke has cleared is almost guaranteed. With a future rate of return of zero for every asset on the planet (that they can get their hands on) means if your pension doesn’t mature in the next 24 months; kiss it goodbye. Savings are going to look like confetti after the party is over.

Still betting that they can't print fast enough to produce their esteemed, and much ballyhooed hyperinflation. Inflation occurs when money is going into the system faster than when it is going out. Deflation is the compliment. Where the world is going to come up with $48 trillion in collateral "this" year to finance the destruction of $48 trillion in new debt formation is anyone's guess. Helicopter money will be their last resort.

The central banks are now pumping money down a monetary Black Hole. The more they print the more it disappears. The Good Ship Economy, the old rust bucket that She is, is taking on water through every seam, and joint. They are trying to have it sink slowly, sliding gently into the abyss. The chances are much higher that She will capsize, and go down like the Titanic.

The oil age, and the debt based monetary system are going off the cliff together, hand in hand. Almost like they were made for each other. How romantic!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 12:42:39

Yup, very true. If you think they printed a lot to save the 2008 crash, just watch this one. The repo is just the beginning.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 12:55:07

From an insider


Folks, I just finalized my October used-vehicle value analysis. Forgive me if this is unprofessional, but I need to be blunt here.

Mark my words, new-vehicle sales are f***ed going forward.



To be more specific, retail AND fleet (which is HUGELY dependent on used-vehicle values based on my research).

I would also expect a sustained spike in subprime auto loan delinquencies/defaults.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 13:35:35

From Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-01/honda-and-hyundai-stage-big-comeback-month-auto-sales-update


Automakers likely saw U.S. sales gain in October following a steep drop the previous month, even as new-vehicle prices hit record highs.
Total deliveries may have risen 2.5% from a year ago to 1.39 million, benefiting in part from one extra selling day, according to a joint estimate from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. The forecast works out to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 17.3 million vehicle sales, down about 200,000 units from a year ago.
With buyers shifting from sedans to more expensive sport utility vehicles and pickups, the average transaction price for new models is expected to top $34,000 for the first time ever, rising almost $1,300 from a year ago. Even so, intense competition is forcing automakers to lure buyers with generous incentives, which are projected to exceed $4,000 per vehicle, as the industry struggles to move record levels of old model-year inventory off dealer lots.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 14:30:13

I would also expect a sustained spike in subprime auto loan delinquencies/defaults.


We will grant you points for stating the obvious. 0% down, 0% interest, and 99 years to pay was never a winning business model. The forward selling of leases was also sure to go bad since it was Wall Street that bought them. It was only doable in the land of hyper currency creation. When a $50,000 vehicle is sold to a buyer with $10 in assets it is not going to work, unless they are Warren Buffet's grand kid. Warren just did not have that many kids!

That is putting a huge number of used cars on the market. All the dealers in my area look like parking lots at O’Hare. The best place to own land is next to a car dealer! There are now more cars leaving dealerships than coming. Most dealers don't want repos cluttering up the lot. Hot off the press, slightly shaky currency is keeping this mess afloat. A 50% reduction in used car prices would shut down half of the country's auto production. Someone could misinterpret that as a "depression". The FED cutting rates to 0% isn't going to help because the buyer is already paying 0%. When they stop repossessing autos because it is no longer economical the last leg before the systemic shutdown has arrived.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 14:46:26

"Automotive companies have announced 43,025 job cuts this year, 197% higher than the 14,489 announced through the same point last year. It is the highest total in the first ten months of the year since 2009, when 164,440 cuts were recorded."

Wards Total Vehicle Sales October (Monthly)
ACTUAL : 16.55m
PRIOR : 17.19m
SURVEY : 17.00m (Mean: 16.96m, High: 17.30m, Low: 16.70m)
Lower than all estimates.


I’m hearing what’s coming in auto is going to be historic.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 15:54:25

Automotive companies have announced 43,025 job cuts this year, 197% higher than the 14,489 announced through the same point last year. It is the highest total in the first ten months of the year since 2009, when 164,440 cuts were recorded."


and yet here we have reported:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/jobs-report-october-2019.html

October job creation comes in at 128,000, easily topping estimates even with GM auto strike

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 128,000 in October, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

There were big revisions of past numbers as well. August’s initial 168,000 payrolls addition was revised up to 219,000, while September’s jumped from 136,000 to 180,000.

The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher to 3.6% from 3.5%, still near the lowest in 50 years.

The pace of average hourly earnings picked up a bit, rising 0.1% to a year-over-year 3% gain.

Even with a decline of 42,000 in the motor vehicles and parts industry, the pace of new jobs well exceeded the estimate of 75,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The loss of jobs came due to the General Motors strike that has since been settled. That 42,000 job loss itself was less than the 50,000 or more that many economists had been anticipating.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 15:54:51

Armageddon wrote:I’m hearing what’s coming in auto is going to be historic.

Breathe easy. Sky is not falling yet.
Though in opposition to Cog and OS you need to be right only once.
Nevertheless I do not expect anything big what would frighten masses of consumers and leave maket shelves empty coming before next US election.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 16:34:51

EnergyUnlimited wrote:
Armageddon wrote:I’m hearing what’s coming in auto is going to be historic.

Breathe easy. Sky is not falling yet.
Though in opposition to Cog and OS you need to be right only once.
Nevertheless I do not expect anything big what would frighten masses of consumers and leave maket shelves empty coming before next US election.



We are just getting started.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 16:46:58

U.S. consumer comfort suffered its biggest weekly decline
in more than 8 years bloomberg.com/news/articles/… The fall led by those earning >$50,000 left measure at May low. Confidence in personal finances fell to mid-May low; those on economy fell most since July 2017.


With the DOW over 27k, it surprises me their comfort level is falling. Most idiots only look at the DOW as an economic gauge. They don’t realize GDP is plummeting and manufacturing and the service sector are contracting to name only a few.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 16:59:29

consumer confidence is still sitting much higher than it has been in years. Cherry picking weekly changes to suit your doom scenario doesn't really fool too many people.

UofM consumer confidence for past 10 years

Image
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 17:47:50

You’ll have to take it up with Bloomberg
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 18:39:33

You’ll have to take it up with Bloomberg


Bloomberg reports it without context, you conveniently turn it into a doom sandwich.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Cog » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 01:04:20

Predicting doom without a timeline is about a useless endeavor. But I understand the fast crash doomers are hesitant to pick a date since their past predictions blow up so spectacularly.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 09:45:17

Predicting doom without a timeline is about a useless endeavor. But I understand the fast crash doomers are hesitant to pick a date since their past predictions blow up so spectacularly.


Why don't you spend your time writing a book on how to rob your neighbors garden without getting your ass shot off! The anti-"doomers" are going to need it.

Goldman: Most Investors Are Focusing On Elizabeth Warren's Rising Election Prospects
:
Does Elizabeth Warren Want To Crash The Global Financial Markets?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldm ... -prospects


They appear to miss the significance of basic numbers. The central banks will have to inject into the system $48 trillion in new currency over the next year to compensate for the increased debt that will destroy $48 trillion of the old currency. That will drive interest rates down, it will drive capital returns down, and it will further squeeze the arbitrage of the credit markets. If Brier Rabbit, and Mother Theresa take the White House this economy is going down. The next Presidential election will be a reflex reaction; kind of like swatting a fly. The central banks will be running out of collateral to finance their money printing Ponzi scheme.

The Plunge In Global Shipping Container Rates Means The Economic Rebound Will Have To Wait

The global/US economy is in trouble, and more specifically, S&P500 earnings deterioration will likely end up in a recession in the next several quarters.
US major equity indexes are hitting new highs, as Treasury yields have soared this week on the idea that a 2016-style rebound in the global economy is imminent.


The people handling your pension, and savings are betting that Trump can Tweet the economy back into prosperity? Liquidity in the system is disappearing faster than the central banks can replace it; repo unraveling, the Chinese banking collapses, collapsing world trade, and the Eurodollar crunch are not strong indications that all can be repaired with a Twitter account. Picking up nickels in front of a steam roller is now what the market calls the smart way to trade?

"If we believe absurdities we will comment atrocities", Voltaire. The state of mind of this market can't get much more absurd than it is!
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yonnipun » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 12:04:45

Short , what do you think is worth investing in considering collapse? I have some land about 25 acres. What about buing topsoil from construction sites etc where it is going to be removed? I read that at current rate the topsoil is gone in 60 years and it takes about thousand years to form an inch of it. So considering this I would think it is a good idea to artificially add topsoil to my property.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 03 Nov 2019, 13:56:11

Short , what do you think is worth investing in considering collapse? I have some land about 25 acres. What about buing topsoil from construction sites etc where it is going to be removed? I read that at current rate the topsoil is gone in 60 years and it takes about thousand years to form an inch of it. So considering this I would think it is a good idea to artificially add topsoil to my property.


The world has a dire shortage of Energy, Water, and Top Soil. Owning any of the three will give you a huge advantage in the very near future.
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Yoshua » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 05:28:37

The markets started to crash last year when the central banks implemented their tightening policy.

The central banks have since then changed their policy and are now doing QE and not QE.

The markets should rise to new highs. Up to the moon.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIYTdUlW4AE ... me=900x900
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby Armageddon » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 12:47:48

US Factory Orders Slump In September, Biggest Contraction Since July 2016


About time for another rate cut lol
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Re: Stock Market Crash! (merged) Pt. 11

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 04 Nov 2019, 13:03:21

About time for another rate cut lol


Interest rates have to go down as the debt goes up, or the economy couldn't service the existing debt. It is simple math. When the central banks run out of room to cut rates, the world runs out of road for can kicking. A couple more points, and the oil age is over, and we run out of groceries. This is so predictable it is almost getting boring.
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