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SOS from Zhitomyr

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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 11:15:05

I'm just reminding you that famine is not prevented by an exportable surplus. More than a few thousands of people have starved to death in this world while their nation grew more than enough food to feed them and still have some to sell abroad.

Economics are not 'a' concern. It is THE concern. IF they can double again the price the good wife is paying for flour, without doubling her wages, AND not have food riots, they can fill the shelves and become a regular, bountiful market economy. If that fails, either as a result of civil food protests over price, or civil war with the East, or a failure in the privatization methods to keep the farmlands managed by people who know what the heck they are doing, then famine is not only possible, its likely. Even while Ukraine continues to export huge amounts of grain.

nb: Ukraine's grain exports are substantially below Russia's; and amount to about a fifth of what the US exports; just to give some scale... Varies from year to year, I found some charts that were about a 1/4 and some that were about an 1/8, and several in between.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 12:19:14

AgentR11 wrote:I'm just reminding you that famine is not prevented by an exportable surplus. More than a few thousands of people have starved to death in this world while their nation grew more than enough food to feed them and still have some to sell abroad.


Of course. Virtually all famines are caused by human mismanagement. I'm just back from a trip to Ireland where the famous potato famine was allowed to occur while rich British landowners in Ireland continued to export huge quantities of food to England. Same deal in Ukraine, where the early 20th century Ukraine famine was caused by Russian communists destroying the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the name of building socialism. These past famines are a big part of the reason that Ireland wants England out of their affairs, and Ukraine wants Russia out of their affairs.

AgentR11 wrote:Economics are not 'a' concern. It is THE concern. IF they can double again the price the good wife is paying for flour, without doubling her wages, AND not have food riots, they can fill the shelves and become a regular, bountiful market economy. If that fails, either as a result of civil food protests over price, or civil war with the East, or a failure in the privatization methods to keep the farmlands managed by people who know what the heck they are doing, then famine is not only possible, its likely. Even while Ukraine continues to export huge amounts of grain.


Famine is not likely in Ukraine. All they have to do is follow the example of Poland, their neighboring country, where the change from being part of the Russian block to being part of the western economic block has resulted in dramatic economic growth and much greater personal wealth.

The Ukrainians have chosen to turn towards the west. Lets hope they succeed. 8)
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 15:20:16

Ireland had massive food surpluses during the potato famine. The wealthy exported them and left the peasants to starve.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 16:52:43

Quinny wrote:Ireland had massive food surpluses during the potato famine. The wealthy exported them and left the peasants to starve.


You're right. That's an interesting free trade and globalism example, there. BRITISH landlords owned that land. They shipped Ireland's produce to Britain and the Irish literally starved to death.

America took the Irish in. Obama is part Irish.

This is why Russia would be wise to be careful about China. If they go from gas to Chiense-controlled food production in Russia, then it's just colonialism, food prices will skyrocket in Russia.

It's happened here in the US, even as big as we are and the #1 economy, it hits me with those bacon and pork costs at the supermarket. *That's all because of China.* China even bought Smithfield Ham, our largest pork producer. We've got produce in California that's labeled just for China alone. China has even affected that drought in California, they're sucking so much produce and hay out of there for export and using up water.

China has a billion + people that eat a lot of pork, that's probably why poor Garna has to pay so much for pork too.

Ukraine will do best hooked up with the EU -- not China -- just keep those Chinese out, that's nothing but colonialism. EU has done well though for Poland, and Czech Republic, and Romania, and Estonia and all of them, the numbers show that clearly.

You are right Quinn that there are risks to free trade deals and globalism, you've really got to watch it or else you turn into a colony and worse off than before. *That won't happen with Ukraine though*, not with EU anyway, just look at Poland and the others and they've done well so it'll be okay.

But China? If Ukraine made big deals with China? That will not go well, and it won't go well for Russia either. Just too many Chinese, that are going to want too much, it will suck you dry and never end and the Chinese like too much control too.

(I'll be glad if China does more in Russia, and give us some breathing space, holy cow we cannot service a billion Chinese that want to live like us -- we don't have enough food, or resources, so fine let Russia help out and let China tell them what to do :lol: )
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 17:13:38

Plantagenet wrote:I'm just back from a trip to Ireland where the famous potato famine was allowed to occur while rich British landowners in Ireland continued to export huge quantities of food to England. Same deal in Ukraine, where the early 20th century Ukraine famine was caused by Russian communists destroying the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the name of building socialism. These past famines are a big part of the reason that Ireland wants England out of their affairs, and Ukraine wants Russia out of their affairs.


(I just repeated to Quinn what you just said, I should read all before posting :lol: )

Plant, Garna is worried about another "holdomor."

The potato famine is actually an example of colonialism (free trade) gone wrong. And, I guess Holdomor was what, the communist reorganizing of farms? That happened in China too with Mao (as you know), big disaster.

There will be a transition disruption in Ukraine now, and probably Russia won't help matters throwing on some sanctions too for spite.

But free markets really are best at sorting things out the quickest, *as long as it's not a colonialism situation* with produce just getting *extracted*. If it's *fair trade* with jobs coming in too, not just food leaving.

So, does Garna have anything to worry about with the EU?

I'm just thinking not, because we have all these other east euro examples and I've already looked at the numbers and living standards and Europe has brought them all up to about the same or better than Putin lifted Russians up.

If there wasn't famine in Poland, I don't see it happening with Ukraine. Am I right or wrong on this?

If I were Russian or Ukrainian I'd be more worried about the Chinese. Chinese are never going to build a factory in Ukraine, rather, they will sell TO Ukraine. And extract raw goods, which do not employ so many and isn't equal in job quality and economic input.

Whereas Europeans will build factories in Ukraine, and support Ukrainian manufacturers. EU has done it with Poland. Swedish IKEA has factories in Poland, just one example.

I think Ukraine will do well with the EU. They've got low labor cost, people ready to work, its president committed to making a good investment climate -- all that brings in Western investment. (the Chinese don't really invest, so much, they *extract*)

Lastly, it's not all about money -- as the new president has said, Ukraine wants to be European and it's a civilization thing and rule of law and democracy and anti-corruption thing, and "leaving our soviet past behind us." They are *choosing* our way of life, it's what they want and they have that right and we ought to welcome them to the family.

And US needs to do a big food aid package during this transition, if that's required. I'm hoping and assuming the state department is on top of it and would respond quickly if there's a problem, like real hunger in Ukraine. Send big food aid, and with the trade deals things will sort out for the better in a couple years.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 17:32:27

[quote="Plantagenet]Image
Ukrainian painting[/quote]

These Ukrainians are fascinating people.

It's new blood for Europe, and the West, reminding us of our own ideals and what we're supposed to be about. Just as Poland has emerged as a leader, Europe needs these new optimistic democracies.

And it's not bullsh*t, they've actually inspired a lot of people around the world, all the way to Japan and even in China people were posting "when will we have freedom too, like the Ukrainians."

I know it sounds corny, but Ukraine's got a lot of people on their side around the world -- and all the Russian propaganda and right sector nonsense and nazi talk didn't squash that.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 18:07:24

GASMON wrote:
It's new blood for Europe, and the West.


Just what we don't need.

I voted UKIP recently (UK independence party), I agree with Cameron on Europe, Europe (The EU leadership) is getting nasty, we need out.


Ah, you're feeling about east euros the way I do about latin america and China sucking all our jobs out, so I get you Gas.

Well I've always acknowledged that, that the EU isn't really so sure about taking more in, but I do think long term this 40 million people breadbasket -- a cornerstone of the USSR -- is a good addition to Europe.

This may not be the right thread for it, but could you post some more about how europe is "getting nasty?"

I know the UK has always been dubious of the EU, from the start, but it's worse lately so what are the specifics?

Good luck to the Ukraine, though don't come here (UK), we are full and our own kind can't get jobs.


UK may be doing something wrong, policy wise. Overall, immigrants (if you bring in the RIGHT kind, and maybe your opinions differ but from what I see muslims are good immigrants if they're educated which is what the US attracts, whereas Canada and Europe have just let anyone in and that was a mistake. And Poles are good immigrants, Ukrainians are too. They *add* new blood and vitality and are a net plus, and build the economy up.

A Polish or Ukrianian immigrant that's working *adds* to your economy. Do they sit around on welfare in the UK? US just doesn't have any probs with our foreign immigrants, other than some latinos, but a Pole or Ukrainian or Russian or muslim? They get out there and work. Again, about the muslims, Europe and Canada has just let anyone in and that was the problem but in the US I've never met a muslim immigrant that wasn't a hard worker and they're not off the boat from the back bush, they're educated good people.

I don't trust the Yanks either (government that is) - sell their own mother for a barrel of oil.


Gas, that's Russia.

Russia has the state owned energy corp and plays games, not us.

American based energy corps just sell the darn oil and gas, same as the British ones do, we're no different from you. We'd never turn anyone's gas off, same as you wouldn't. We're the good guys.

Anyhow I'm getting worried now. Is the "special relationship" really done with? Have we lost Britain? Gas you're sounding xenophobic, and then Quinn is so anti-American, wtf is going on in the UK.

And you somehow think the US is more evil about oil and gas than Russia is? American corps are in business to do business, not shut anyone's gas off over politics.

Anyways I like you Gas, always have, I won't tangle with you. You can tell me I'm an ass and I'll shut up. :lol:

I know that UK has problems, but be careful about going too xenophobic -- that doesn't lead anywhere. You just need the right kind of immigrants. Like in the US, we have guys like an Elon Musk immigrating from South Africa and single-handedly remaking the aerospace industry.

Immigrants have *energy* like that, a place gets stale without them, and that goes for old jaded disillusioned Europe too -- they need this new Ukrainian blood.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 21:32:47

Plantagenet wrote:Famine is not likely in Ukraine. All they have to do is follow the example of Poland,


Poland was not in the middle of a civil war with both sides shooting at each other in tanks.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 00:28:35

If somebody said about Israel/Jews what 6 says about China/Chinese they would be denounced as racists. But some races peoples are special. It's in the Bible.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 12:36:27

Agent - Yep. I doubt few people who starve do so because of a lack of food. They do so because of a lack of food they can afford to acquire.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby americandream » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 15:10:45

Our predicament, even that of the global elite, is directly as a consequence of the culture that evolved within the then material conditions (the onset of the British Empire). Historic conditions were such that England was the venue for the emergence of this global culture which, with the aid of the Empire, spread rapidly as it took root. The rise of Reason and science helped speed the process along with the more utilitarian developments in Christianity. The result being that the globalisation process holds us all captives...the Chinese, the fuedal overlords in the fuedal Islamic kingdom, the Europeans, the former communists...all of us. No amount of petty nationalism of the kind exhibited by six can slow this process down. It is relentless and immovable, as far as the human hand goes. Only material conditions such as the state of the planet and its resources will halt this juggernaut. Therefore getting hot under the collar at the goings on in say Ukraine or Iraq (which is understandable as we are all emotional beings) will matter not a bit...the art is to cultivate enough objectivity to be able to stand back and try to think clearly.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 16:32:49

There is a difference between objectivity and boring disinterest.

I don't really want to divert the thread from its core, but, "The result being that the globalisation process holds us all captives"....rankles.. We are captives of the need to eat and breed. They existed before money, money came about to make that necessity easier to manage. Globalization, for all its inequities, has taken this ease of management to its pinnacle of efficiency.

Yes, there are losers and winners, but they are losers and winners in the process of wage/value normalization, ideally, Bob in NYC should be able to work a day and be able to acquire a 50 lb bag of rice, a few gallons of gasoline, or some booze and meat to charm his potential breeding partner. Tanaka-san in Tokyo should be able to work a day and be able to acquire the same; Sanjay of New Dehli also similar; and yes, even Boris and Natasha should do as well. For all its twists and clumsiness, globalization has drawn these all closer to parity; though its obviousness is sometimes difficult to discern because exchange rates between countries have some degree of non-market force applied to them.

Globalization is not the source of our needs, nor is it a chain, rather it allows for 7+ billion of us all to not die, for most to have some measure of comfort and peace in their lives, and for all but a few particular low skilled labor classes in developed nations, presents itself as a continuation of comfort or an improvement in comfort for most.

But do not misplace the chain of captivity. A human must eat and drink, or must die.

To the good wife of Ukraine, its immediate effects may be more than a little painful, in particular, her food costs half of what it should cost; but long term her options for gaining the means to acquire sufficient food calories should expand and become less arbitrary and more honest.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby americandream » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 16:41:19

@ Gas

I am inclined to agree that the derailment of capitalism will be swift and sudden. I watch the Chinese however as I suspect that initial rumblings will be felt in beginnings of the failure of their factory placement in the grander scheme of things. Conditions will then rapidly take a turn for the worse.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 29 Jun 2014, 16:50:52

GarnaZhinkaYa wrote:I work in Privat Bank office. In half a year my wages decreased from 5,000 hrn to 2,700. That was janitor's fee not long ago! Also communal services 70% went up as well as food cost. Even baker's flour has risen from 2 to 5 hrn fo 1 kg in 2 months! They don't sell more than 10 kg of sugar to a person! And pork costs about 85 hrn in supermarket stores (but there is more lard than meat in it) or 100 and more if you buy from private trader in the market. And for sure the last one would give 0.3-0.5 kg light weight. It is hard to find even greengrocery for all private grocers prefer to make their winter storage than sell their production. I've got a small kitchen garden. It is of much help. But my hubby's already hates eating cabbages and cucumbers every day. All in all we won't starve till winter. It is just frightful to think about cold season beginning. With such prices we will work just for water supply and heating.
All Ukrainian officials sent their families abroad. Just common Ukrainians suffer privations. I fear to think how many people would die of famine. It will be another Holodomor. This time our own leaders carry it on. They will reduce Ukrainian population to the wealthy minimum and make appearance of prospering country ready to become EU member.


Garna, welcome aboard! Hope you enjoy your visit and post more information on how things are where you live and work.
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