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Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby sparky » Sun 02 Sep 2012, 20:29:37

.
I knew of this formation for yonks ,
it was well known as being unusable by conventionnal drilling ,
digging was once considered , but didn't make any economic sense
Russia had plenty of oil without having to go to the hassle of accessing this one
interestingly the shtokman giant actic gas field has been put on ice ( pun)
development costs are too high ,
the French company Total , joint developer of the project is deeply unhappywith this
they will probably come back with a cheaper proposal based on a forecast of less sea ice

It probably will not work , the gas market is all over the place
bad time to sink a few dozen of billions bucks
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 23 Jan 2014, 13:12:21

Time for an update! Test drilling has begun!

Shell, Gazprom Neft Eye Siberia’s Bazhenov as Next Bakken
A joint venture between Shell and Russia’s Gazprom Neft has begun drilling in a Siberian shale formation that is believed to hold one of the world’s largest shale oil deposits.

The joint venture, Salym Petroleum Development (SPD), is eying the Bazhenov shale as a play potentially similar to the highly prolific Bakken shale in the US.

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 23 Jan 2014, 13:20:21

From what I've read this play has the potential to make the Bakken look like an oil stain on your driveway. Or not. I suspect it will take at least several hundred wells and quit a few years to figure out which.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Rock

Unread postby lasseter » Sun 26 Jan 2014, 06:23:08

This will go the way of the caspian basin. Anyone remember the Caspian, the saviour of the world? It made a lot of money for the companies involved before the truth came out and the stocks crashed. But by then they had their profits and could walk away.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 13:48:53

People like to point out that up until the present time the USA has been the most successful at developing shale oil because of our private mineral rights and the economic incentive this supplies for private companies to seek it out.

What they are failing to perceive IMO is that Saudi Arabia and Russia, the two countries with the same general production rates as the USA of total petroleum supply, have an advantage of their own. In Saudi Arabia every mineral belongs to the Monarchy and if the king says drill HERE then you drill HERE and any oil you find is his first and Aramaco's second. In Russia the situation was nearly that simple under the USSR where the Politburo said to drill got drilled and the oil that was discovered was property of the state. It is a little more complicated under the current system but in practice not really that different from the USSR days. Now the state says you may drill HERE but not THERE and you get to keep some of the profit if you find oil and sell it, but you take the risk now where before the risk was all the states risk. Either way both countries are perfectly capable of the authorities designating shale drilling and fracking being a priority oil supply system and investing in drilling/fracking/producing and then selling the resulting oil. What is also true is that with all the bankruptcies in the American Fracking companies from the glut period now ending there are a lot of people with know how that would be willing and able to sell their knowledge and even skills to the Russians and even the Saudi's to help kick off their fracking development programs.

If the Bazhenov Shale is as good as some estimates it will be able to offset depletion of the conventional sources of oil in Russia for a decade or more, just like the USA shale industry is doing here.

Russia looks to shale. Russia is starting to look at its shale potential, and large reserves are thought to be located in the Bazhenov shale in Western Siberia. In fact, it is thought to be the largest shale formation in the world. Up until now, Russia has relied on conventional sources, but Russian companies are starting to move into shale. “The Bazhenov is a huge prize,” says Alexei Vashkevich, Gazprom Neft’s exploration director, according to the WSJ. Output from Russia’s shale is not expected before the mid-2020s, but it could be crucial to offsetting declines from mature oil fields.


LINK
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 15:48:49

Ironically, melting permafrost would be a huge barrier to long term development in this region.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby dissident » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 16:16:59

Funny how Americans assume that they are the only ones with a clue about hydraulic fracturing. That's the exceptionalistan thinking for you. As if America has a monopoly on human intelligence. Fracking has been researched in Russia from the academic level to the company field level for decades.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.10 ... 011-4579-3

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... x/abstract

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/743 ... eload=true

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.10 ... 012050/pdf

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1608.08001

http://www.gruppofrattura.it/pdf/rivist ... art_12.pdf

http://mtt.ipmnet.ru/en/Issues.php?y=2010&n=6&p=844

Gazprom is already engaged in fracking:

http://www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/1117675/

PS. The permafrost melts every summer as far as field operations are concerned.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sun 31 Dec 2017, 14:13:05

That article from Gazprom had some pretty interesting info.
IP of almost 1,400 bo from a 20 stage frac on an initial well bodes very well for future development.
Using closable sleeves was particularly noteworthy as only Crescent Point has utilized them, AFIK.
About 2 years back, Bazenhov had at least 4 horizontal wells being drilled with no multistage fracturing planned at that time.
The primary purpose was to test actual conditions regarding operational challenges and obtaining formation data along the way.

There should be no doubt that, despite a great deal of heterogeneity - especially faulting - throughout the vastness of the Bazenhov, it WILL be successfully developed, probably sooner rather than later.

On a somewhat related note, the $27 billion that the Russians invested in developing LNG infrastructure on Yamal - an absolutely stunning achievement, all the more so as sanctions hampered the project - is GREATLY threatened by future US LNG.
This, like the Australian Gladstone projects, cost WAY more than proposed US LNG operations.

Numbers ... Yamal - $27 billion, 16 million tonnes per year (mpta)
Gladstone (all 3 companies) - $60 billion, 26 mpta
Telurian's project - $16 billion, 27 mpta in incremental (modular) stages
Newest proposal by Delfin and Golar - $4/5 billion, 13 mpta using FLNGs

The rapid development in technology in the hydrocarbon world is not only at a dizzying pace, it is accelerating.

The doomers and Ra/Zephyr worshipers aside, serious students of these matters would be well advised that - 5 years out - we will be in a different world.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 16:33:57

coffeeguyzz wrote:That article from Gazprom had some pretty interesting info.
IP of almost 1,400 bo from a 20 stage frac on an initial well bodes very well for future development.
Using closable sleeves was particularly noteworthy as only Crescent Point has utilized them, AFIK.
About 2 years back, Bazenhov had at least 4 horizontal wells being drilled with no multistage fracturing planned at that time.
The primary purpose was to test actual conditions regarding operational challenges and obtaining formation data along the way.

There should be no doubt that, despite a great deal of heterogeneity - especially faulting - throughout the vastness of the Bazenhov, it WILL be successfully developed, probably sooner rather than later.

On a somewhat related note, the $27 billion that the Russians invested in developing LNG infrastructure on Yamal - an absolutely stunning achievement, all the more so as sanctions hampered the project - is GREATLY threatened by future US LNG.
This, like the Australian Gladstone projects, cost WAY more than proposed US LNG operations.

Numbers ... Yamal - $27 billion, 16 million tonnes per year (mpta)
Gladstone (all 3 companies) - $60 billion, 26 mpta
Telurian's project - $16 billion, 27 mpta in incremental (modular) stages
Newest proposal by Delfin and Golar - $4/5 billion, 13 mpta using FLNGs

The rapid development in technology in the hydrocarbon world is not only at a dizzying pace, it is accelerating.

The doomers and Ra/Zephyr worshipers aside, serious students of these matters would be well advised that - 5 years out - we will be in a different world.


How much oil and condensates do you think Bazahnov will ultimately yield and how long can it offset depletion in conventional fields in Siberia and European Russia?
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Mon 01 Jan 2018, 22:37:30

Sub
Your question just prompted me to go to the absolute best - overall - source of data on these matters, the EIA site.
Just downloaded and speed read the 74 page pdf on the Bazenhov that, released in 2015, used research from earlier years.
Somewhat dated, in other words.

Still, they pegged 75 billion barrel TRR.
TOC content in the center area is 10% which is exceptionally high.
I have no idea regarding future recoveries, but the clay content might prove problematic.
However, there are numerous alternatives to water based frac'ing (supercritical gas being only one), so the Russians may very well surprise to the upside in future development.

There is NO doubt that there is a vast resource there.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 08:31:23

coffeeguyzz wrote:Sub
Your question just prompted me to go to the absolute best - overall - source of data on these matters, the EIA site.
Just downloaded and speed read the 74 page pdf on the Bazenhov that, released in 2015, used research from earlier years.
Somewhat dated, in other words.

Still, they pegged 75 billion barrel TRR.
TOC content in the center area is 10% which is exceptionally high.
I have no idea regarding future recoveries, but the clay content might prove problematic.
However, there are numerous alternatives to water based frac'ing (supercritical gas being only one), so the Russians may very well surprise to the upside in future development.

There is NO doubt that there is a vast resource there.


I remember reading years ago that the USSR pioneered using artillery shell sized atomic bombs to frack gas formations in Siberia. Something about the massive heat shock crystallizing and shattering the clay? I dunno, but it seems like clay has answers even if it is a complicating factor.

The key number of 75 Billion is interesting, that is IIRC about a third of the Gahwar field in Arabia and that field alone has made the kingdom extremely wealthy for many decades.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 12:03:08

I remember reading years ago that the USSR pioneered using artillery shell sized atomic bombs to frack gas formations in Siberia. Something about the massive heat shock crystallizing and shattering the clay? I dunno, but it seems like clay has answers even if it is a complicating factor.


I don't think using atomic weapons would make a difference. One of the problems is the intense heat generated. I was involved in one of the early fire floods in a heavy oil test project. Cores taken after the flood had passed revealed sandstones that were completely altered to what looked more like igneous rocks. With high heat even if it penetrated a small distance from the well bore before dissapating there would be a considerable reduction in permeability. Also, the mechanical response to increased differential stress of certain rocks with high clay content is to deform plastically not brittlely meaning fractures aren't always created. There is still a lot of work being done on this in places like the Centre for Tectonophysics Research at Texas A&M (interesting side point is John Handin, who the founder of the Centre also was chiefly responsible for the Shell Research centre where he collaborated extensively with M.K. Hubbert, at the time Hubbert, Handin and Griggs were leaders in the field of rock mechanics).
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 10:31:36

KHANTY-MANSIISK, Russia, March 1 (Reuters) - Russia’s Gazprom Neft expects to start commercial production from Bazhenov formation, the world’s largest shale oil resource, in 2025 provided it can reduce lifting costs from current estimates for the project, company officials said.

The International Energy Agency describes Bazhenov as the world’s largest source rock, a bed of ancient organic matter dating back to the Jurassic period which has given rise to most of the crude oil pumped from the fields of West Siberia.

Production of such oil is more costly than the extraction of the oil from conventional reservoirs.

“We understand that this is a very serious technological challenge,” Alexei Vashkevich, head of geological exploration and resource base development at Gazprom Neft, told reporters.

For the project to be viable, lifting costs needed to fall to 8,500 roubles ($151) per tonne, Vashkevich said, without disclosing current estimates.

Kirill Strizhnev, who oversees the Bazhenov project for Gazprom Neft, said commercial production might start in 2025.

Gazprom Neft, which estimates that it can potentially extract 400 million tonnes of oil equivalent (8 million barrels per day) from Bazhenov, currently produces 150 tonnes per day from the formation.

The company initially planned to tap Bazhenov jointly with Shell but the international major withdrew from the project in 2014 following international sanctions against Russia for its role in Ukrainian crisis.

$1 = 56.2600 roubles Reporting by Oksana Kobzeva Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin Editing by Edmund Blair


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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 11:10:19

Tanada wrote:
Production of such oil is more costly than the extraction of the oil from conventional reservoirs.

“We understand that this is a very serious technological challenge,” Alexei Vashkevich, head of geological exploration and resource base development at Gazprom Neft, told reporters.

For the project to be viable, lifting costs needed to fall to 8,500 roubles ($151) per tonne, Vashkevich said, without disclosing current estimates.

...

$1 = 56.2600 roubles Reporting by Oksana Kobzeva Writing by Vladimir Soldatkin Editing by Edmund Blair


Reuters

So call it $3ish per ton, in what they want lifting costs to be.

But why shouldn't that vary (wildly) depending on the estimated price of oil?

So if oil is $40ish a barrel, it's probably not going to happen for that formation, regardless.

But if oil is, say, $120 a barrel and the trend is up, due to continued global economic growth, then they wouldn't gladly pay, say $5 (or even $10) per ton to lift instead of $3? I don't believe it, unless other projected costs changed dramatically.

It seems to me that unless they state such figures in context of an estimated price of oil, they don't mean much.

As a layman who is not in the oil business (but who does invest in oil stocks for the long run), what am I missing?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 14:09:39

We understand that this is a very serious technological challenge


Well, then why haven't they consulted the Failed Physicists of Wall Street...OR

The "Smartest Guys in the Room" at Google.

Answer: They're frauds. You know, Internet Scams Rulz!
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 17:18:20

The Russians have a demonstrated history of unparalleled innovation coupled with extreme determination when circumstances warrant.

Should they continue to overcome operational and technical hurdles in developing the Baz, that will unleash an enormous amount of oil onto the global stage.
Furthermore, should this anticipated evolution spread, other areas, notably - but not exclusively EasternEurope - will adopt and implement these extractive procedures.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 19:09:55

StarvingLion wrote:
We understand that this is a very serious technological challenge


Well, then why haven't they consulted the Failed Physicists of Wall Street...OR

The "Smartest Guys in the Room" at Google.

Answer: They're frauds. You know, Internet Scams Rulz!

If you didn't call basically everything that doesn't point to imminent doom a "fraud", then you just might have a wee bit of credibillity. As it is, not so much, IMO.

They are disclosing that their plans and chances of success are highly speculative. Do you even know what "fraud" really means?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 21:33:42

coffeeguyzz wrote:The Russians have a demonstrated history of unparalleled innovation coupled with extreme determination when circumstances warrant.

Should they continue to overcome operational and technical hurdles in developing the Baz, that will unleash an enormous amount of oil onto the global stage.
Furthermore, should this anticipated evolution spread, other areas, notably - but not exclusively EasternEurope - will adopt and implement these extractive procedures.


More mindless hype from coffeegrinds...

Here is the truth: Not self-financing.

"To make Bazhenov work, Gazprom Neft is also banking on tax concessions and partial financing from the government, which have yet to be forthcoming—and may not appear in the near future either."
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby StarvingLion » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 21:36:02

StarvingLion wrote:
coffeeguyzz wrote:The Russians have a demonstrated history of unparalleled innovation coupled with extreme determination when circumstances warrant.

Should they continue to overcome operational and technical hurdles in developing the Baz, that will unleash an enormous amount of oil onto the global stage.
Furthermore, should this anticipated evolution spread, other areas, notably - but not exclusively EasternEurope - will adopt and implement these extractive procedures.


More mindless hype from coffeegrinds...

Here is the truth: Not self-financing...and probably never will be. The big manufacturing based coal burners will own this because oil states like Russia, Saudi and Scamerica cannot finance it.

"To make Bazhenov work, Gazprom Neft is also banking on tax concessions and partial financing from the government, which have yet to be forthcoming—and may not appear in the near future either."
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Re: Siberia's Cornucopia Bazhenov Shale

Unread postby dissident » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 19:07:51

https://youtu.be/K9Rk6qE2TFo

Gazprom-Neft has started drilling work to exploit the Bazhenov "shale". The video describes a fracking operation similar to the Bakken where the payzone is a thin 10-50 meter layer. So this is fracking with optimal contact horizontal drilling.
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