[Graeme]

Shale oil and gas 'will make US self-sufficient'

BP forecasts that growth in shale oil and gas will make the US self-sufficient by 2030 – but UK will still need Gulf supplies.

Growth in shale oil and gas supplies will make the US virtually self-sufficient in energy by 2030, according to a BP report published on Wednesday.

In a development with enormous geopolitical implications, the country's dependence on oil imports from potentially volatile countries in the Middle East and elsewhere would disappear, BP said, although Britain and western Europe would still need Gulf supplies.

BP's latest energy outlook forecasts a growth in unconventional energy sources, "including US shale oil and gas, Canadian oil sands and Brazilian deepwater, plus a gradual decline in demand, that would see [North America] become almost totally energy self-sufficient" in two decades.

BP's chief executive, Bob Dudley, said: "Our report challenges some long-held beliefs. Significant changes in US supply-and-demand prospects, for example, highlight the likelihood that import dependence in what is today's largest energy importer will decline substantially."

guardian

[ralfy]

Given a major drop in demand, a country will certainly be self-sufficient.

[Pops]

Let's see, considering the forecast that oil available for export will be about zero by 2040, I guess a forecast that everyone will be "self-sufficient" by then makes sense?





But I'm sure that isn't the idea you hoped to convey.

[NoWorries]

This truly is a deus ex machina.

Looks as though our energy problems have been solved!

[dorlomin]

Richard Wachman is City editor for the Observer

So its a finance bod covering energy. Just churnalism of a BP press release on its world energy outlook.

World primary energy consumption is projected to grow by 1.6% p.a.
over the period 2010 to 2030, adding 39% to global consumption by
2030. The growth rate declines, from 2.5% p.a. over the past decade,
to 2.0% p.a. over the next decade, and 1.3% p.a. from 2020 to 2030.

Link

Predicting 105 barrels of oil equivelent in liquids for 2030.

Oil is expected to be the slowest-growing fuel over the next 20 years.
Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquids) nonetheless is
likely to rise by 16 Mb/d, exceeding 103 Mb/d by 2030.

Page 26 is the one for people wanting to visualize where those liquids will come from.

Non OPEC conventional flat, OPEC going up, big rise in OPEC NGLs, US shale oil seems to be slotted for about 3 mbd.

d, while Saudi output expands by nearly 3
Mb/d. Saudi Arabia is assumed to add new capacity as and when
required to maintain a cushion of spare capacity.

Hmmm, paint me cynical.

[Fishman]

Excellent post Pops. Their data may be correct, with the US "self sufficient". Its the context of the data that counts.