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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 06:04:50

dohboi wrote:Ibon, you might want to consider these words of robertscribbler on the prospects for sea level rise effects on the Florida coast over the next decade plus, as you consider the timing for unloading your property there:
6-12 inches through 2030 as most likely scenario depending on location, rate of Gulf Stream slowdown, and rate of glacial melt in Antarctica (and, unfortunately, there are some low but concerning outside risks for more over this time-frame)


So, about a half to a full inch per year for the next dozen years or so (less in the beginning, more toward the end).

Less easy to predict is the year that panic will set in and all low lying coastal property values go to near zero, or worse. When what had been seen as valuable assets suddenly become seen as dangerous liabilities, chaos is likely to ensue.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/19/ ... ast-coast/

(In the comments section--rs is not a scientist, but is one of the best informed non-scientist I know of on these kinds of matters.)


I was recently at a restaurant in South Florida and couldn't help overhearing the folks at the neighboring table. They represent your typical uneducated south floridian. I am quoting a lady who said..... "You know that global warming thingy, well, 5 years ago the drain on the street would sometimes flood with water coming out but now we see fish coming up out of the drain. Can you believe that"?

I was amused but also paid close attention. Also everyone twittering pics of water on the street with this recent full moon high tide. What I am observing is not so much the physical event as the collective's reaction and more and more acceptance of SLR. That has to be the leading indicator in reference to valuing coastal properties.

I also recently talked to another real estate agent who confirmed to me that as recently as 3 years ago prospective buyers rarely brought up climate change and SLR as a concern when considering buying coastal properties but today she is hearing this more and more.

A full moon high tide, referred to as a king tide, when it happens on a sunny day with minimal surf and calm seas, causing streets to flood, is quite poignant actually. You cant blame this on a storm or hurricane or strong winds. I think this creates more concern than a damaging storm surge from a hurricane where folks can always conclude it was just a freak storm.

Having said all that, you might be surprised when I inform you guys we took the home off the market and are waiting to sell for another year or two. A number of reasons that I don't want to get into right now. We'll see. I am not overly concerned on the short term and we are 3.5 miles inland.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 08:20:15

Thanks for the ground truthing...interesting points.

And hey, it's your property. Such decisions always involve more than just one consideration.

And as I said, the really (relatively) fast slr won't come till toward the end of that period.

But it does sound like the rumblings are beginning to swell, and more tides that clearly swamp areas that did not used to be underwater from mere tides will really tell people that this is real.

Maybe we should sent KJ down there to wade around in those tides for a while and see what he thinks!! He'll probably say that the water is just a hypothesis. :lol: :lol:
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kuidaskassikaeb » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 21:00:49

Image

Anyway since these are nice and smooth I took the slopes to see how fast the predictions were. I took the fastest rise, cause.

Anyway
1900-2000 2mm/yr
2000 4mm/yr
2015 6mm/yr
2050 12mm/yr
2085 17mm/yr

2085 was about when the sea level rise was predicted to be 1 meter.

What needs to be said though is that people will experience sea level rise as horizontal movement. A typical ground slope might be 1% or 2%. 2% is the about the slope of a rain gutter. For that kind of slope even in 2015 6mm of sea level rise translates to 2 feet horizontally for a 1% slope and 1 foot horizontally for a 2% slope. That is pretty hard to miss.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 22 Oct 2016, 22:28:29

kuidaskassikaeb wrote:
What needs to be said though is that people will experience sea level rise as horizontal movement. A typical ground slope might be 1% or 2%. 2% is the about the slope of a rain gutter. For that kind of slope even in 2015 6mm of sea level rise translates to 2 feet horizontally for a 1% slope and 1 foot horizontally for a 2% slope. That is pretty hard to miss.

What you are missing here is the great variability of coastal geography. Many areas have very narrow beaches with bed rock cliffs or hills just behind them. A sea level rise there will wash out the beach but do nothing for any land just a few yards inland. The opposite is true for the extensive deltas of the world which are some of our most productive farm land and heavily populated areas of the world. Think of Egypt, Bangladesh, Mississippi Etc. that have been placed by river water coming into contact with the sea and having miles of land that is barely above sea level. Let the sea rise just a couple of meters and the whole of each delta will be under water for centuries while the rivers struggle to deposit another layer of silt to build up the land. And let us not talk about Florida which has it's highest point just 75 feet above the present sea level.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 05:49:37

Good point about coastal geography, vt, especially deltas, which tend to provide a huge percentage of the food in their regions, wherever they are located.

Just a quote I just came across from a recent Hansen (et alia) paper. (Apologies if this was already brought up and discussed above). One of the key predictions of the paper:

nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years


What would several meters in 50 years look like in some of the place vt and others are talking about?

I'm trying to wrap my head around that! If 'several' can include 5, that is of course a meter per decade...and that's just the global average. In places like the US east coast, it's likely to be even more and even faster.

Hmmmm, maybe Ibon should reconsider his plan to put of the sale of his property, after all!! 8O

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 09:51:49

dohboi wrote:Good point about coastal geography, vt, especially deltas, which tend to provide a huge percentage of the food in their regions, wherever they are located.

Just a quote I just came across from a recent Hansen (et alia) paper. (Apologies if this was already brought up and discussed above). One of the key predictions of the paper:

nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50–150 years


What would several meters in 50 years look like in some of the place vt and others are talking about?

I'm trying to wrap my head around that! If 'several' can include 5, that is of course a meter per decade...and that's just the global average. In places like the US east coast, it's likely to be even more and even faster.

Hmmmm, maybe Ibon should reconsider his plan to put of the sale of his property, after all!! 8O

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/


This is where our efforts to control large rivers comes back to bite us. Both the Mississippi and Nile have control structures that limt or even eliminate silt deposition in the delta.
I see frequent statements about Bangledesh dissapearing, but if they let silt deposits in the delta continue the region will rise at the same rate as sea level rises.
Louisiana and Egypt have lost that safety system, the coast of the former is eroding rapidly and without fresh annual silt the Nile delta is sinking, not rising.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 23 Oct 2016, 10:13:26

Yes, there are lots of threats to those delta areas. I believe slr is already a problem in Bangladesh as well as in Pakistan, with hundreds of thousands of people having to leave their coastal homes every year for good.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 25 Oct 2016, 16:43:29

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/25/ ... st-africa/

“We Have Nowhere to Go” — Sea Level Rise is Devouring the Coast of West Africa
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 26 Oct 2016, 10:34:56

Sandy's Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea's Inevitable Path

As people in towns like Toms River rushed to rebuild, they did not retreat from the coast. Instead, at the waterfront, so much—houses, businesses and sand dunes—is coming back bigger, stronger and taller than ever before.
...
Sandy's storm surge broke through the barrier island in the town of Manatoloking, next to Toms River, allowing the bay to rise 4 feet in an hour. But FEMA did not include such a scenario in its model.
...
...even without storm surges there will be daily tidal inundation on Jersey Shore waterfront properties within decades.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2510 ... s-christie
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 26 Oct 2016, 11:59:24

dohboi wrote:Sandy's Lessons Lost: Jersey Shore Rebuilds in Sea's Inevitable Path

As people in towns like Toms River rushed to rebuild, they did not retreat from the coast. Instead, at the waterfront, so much—houses, businesses and sand dunes—is coming back bigger, stronger and taller than ever before.
...
Sandy's storm surge broke through the barrier island in the town of Manatoloking, next to Toms River, allowing the bay to rise 4 feet in an hour. But FEMA did not include such a scenario in its model.
...
...even without storm surges there will be daily tidal inundation on Jersey Shore waterfront properties within decades.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2510 ... s-christie


I saw this everywhere in Florida when I was just there. Massive building along the New River in downtown Fort Lauderdale which is just a couple miles inland from the sea. Where does the surge first enter but along this river. My properties are across the street from this river 3.5 miles inland.......just a little bit longer...... I always loved walking on the knifes edge and tempting fate...... I hope it doesn't bite me this time!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 26 Oct 2016, 19:28:58

My father in law had a lifetime of great realestate investing. But his last investment really bit him in the rear end.

Don't trust to luck to hold...bitch goddess and all that...

At least you're not building out like these other idiots.

Even after seeing so much evidence of the March of Folly that is human history discussed on this and other forums, things like what you just described and the stuff in NJ continue to gobsmack me. How can we be so utterly shortsighted and feckless?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 26 Oct 2016, 20:23:48

More on abrupt sea level rise here:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/26/ ... /#comments

Half a Kilometer of Ice Gone in Just 7 Years — West Antarctica’s Smith Glacier Points To Nightmare Melt Scenario
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 08:18:15

dohboi wrote:Even after seeing so much evidence of the March of Folly that is human history discussed on this and other forums, things like what you just described and the stuff in NJ continue to gobsmack me. How can we be so utterly shortsighted and feckless?



Dohboi,

It's because humanity, collectively, is only very marginally smarter than the great apes. Sure we have learned a trick or two that has allowed us to build technology. But we, as the apes, are still largely ruled by the amegdela, the snake brain. Instinct that drives us to be wary todays predator and let tomorrow tend for itself.

I wish it were not so, but this does adequately answer your question. So it's my working hypothesis.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 27 Oct 2016, 08:23:49

I think that's true. But I think current society makes us collectively even dumber. We are driven by narrow definitions of short-term self interest that often prevent us from seeing any kind of larger picture. Our values are all bass ackward.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 09:40:11

http://www.sciencealert.com/we-ve-been- ... scientists

We've been underestimating sea level rise this whole time, say scientists

Things just got even worse.


A new study suggests that we’ve underestimated the amount of sea level rise that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century, finding that historical records have miscalculated the increase by as much as 5 to 28 percent in certain areas.

By applying the original sea level measurements to a new climate model, researchers found that sea level estimates were based on certain areas that were not indicative of the increases on the globe as a whole, and we’re only now seeing the real picture.

The researchers, from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of Hawai’i at Manoa, say that it’s now "highly unlikely" that the global average sea level rose less than 14 centimetres (5.5 inches) during the 20th century, and the most likely amount was closer to 17 cm (6.7 inches).


Here's a link to the academic paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 2/abstract
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 10:06:25

dohboi wrote:http://www.sciencealert.com/we-ve-been-underestimating-sea-level-rise-this-whole-time-say-scientists

We've been underestimating sea level rise this whole time, say scientists

Things just got even worse.


SHXT. I gotta put through a call immediately to my realtor in florida to get that house back on the market fast :)

Just joking.....but I am watching..... I think next year once we get all the loose ends tightened and make it look real pretty then we will sell.

I do get a sense that public sentiment is accelerating as fast as the physical SLR.... it really might be expedient to sell sooner rather than later.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 15:17:54

get out as soon as you can Ibon
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 02 Nov 2016, 15:35:34

Ocean View, right at your door step, in a matter of decades, perhaps. Who knows.
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Re: THE Oceans & Seas Thread pt 3

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 22:56:29

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... -flooding/

The Greater New York City Region Must Plan for "Permanent Flooding"


Without more protection, one foot of sea level rise could inundate nearly 60 square miles of the tristate area as soon as 2050
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Re: THE Oceans & Seas Thread pt 3

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 20 Jan 2017, 03:20:23

Study of past warming signals major sea level rise ahead

http://science.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/1 ... ce.aai8464
.. The findings in the journal Science show that ocean surface temperatures during the Earth's last warm period, some 125,000 years ago, were remarkably similar to today.

But what concerns scientists is that sea level back then was 20-30 feet (six to nine meters) above what it is today...
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