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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 12:20:45

Tanada wrote:
As sea level rise encroaches people will move. It may be expensive and inconvenient, but it is not a disaster. On the other side of the coin people could take steps right now to retreat to levels of 2 or 3 meters greater altitude. Then a decade from now they can retreat another meter above mean sea level, and so on. By doing it sensibly structures can be demolished or moved and roads rebuilt in better locations.


Let's assume we would have accelerated rising seas combined with a population with continued interest in coastal living. I thought of an interesting adaptation. Taking an example from the adaptation to tropical areas with frequest typhoons. In the Philippines for example rural coastal villages built dwellings raised on stilts of mangrove timber , split bamboo floors, mangroves for the framing and thatch palm for the roofs. This building style is a result of thousands of years of adaptation where rebuilding after wind and flooding destroyed villages. Your structure was practically disposable and replaced in a matter of weeks. mangrove framing was salvaged and renewable bamboo and palm thatch was replaced.

A modern application of this would be modular structures raised on columns, foundations, walls and roofs all designed with easily dismantled modular pods that can be transported inland when needed. This could be easily scaled up to relocate thousands or hundreds of thousands without a huge loss of resources as you would recycle the pods.

This is just an example of the possible resilience we could see in humans adapting to a dynamic system change of accelerated sea level rise.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 12:51:26

Yes, Nipa Huts (or Bahay Kubo or Kamalig). I grew up around them and with a nipa hut playhouse.

But these constructions didn't save folks in the Philippines from the 40 foot surge of Haiyan.

We are dealing with ever more powerful storms and storm surges, and there is no knowing exactly how high the next mega-storm's surge will be.

People here seem to be focusing on the relatively innocuous sounding millimeters per year average predicted increase in sealevel rise. It is true that if that was the only thing going on (and if many governments and business weren't in total or partial denial of the threat of these steady rises to their people and infrastructure), that we could in fact perhaps plan a steady withdrawal from coastal areas and that some of this might happen 'naturally' as people saw the water coming. (Of course, people on island nations would have...fewer options than would those living on mainlands.)

But nothing happens in isolation. The only nation doing anything like adequate planning for this is the Netherlands. And of course even mentioning GW is verboten among officials of the state of Florida. So the idea that anything planned is going to happen is pretty much nil.

But on top of such rampant incompetence is the fact that slr is going to be much faster and higher in some locations. And even more importantly (how many times to I have to repeat this?) it is an added factor that will make coastal storms more deadly and unpredictable.

OK, I'll let somebody else carry on the good fight here. If you haven't heard me articulating the blindingly obvious by now, you are trying hard not to listen, and not interested in trying to get across to such types.

I think we can agree that there are many threats both from GW and from other areas that are going to put many lives and civilization itself in jeopardy int he coming years and decades. None of us has a perfect crystal ball to know which will hit first and strongest. But let's try not to over-simplify the situation wrt any particular threat, in either direction.

(By the way, I still know all the Tagalog words to the folk song about Nipa Huts "Bahay Kubo" 55 years after learning it as a 4 year old!)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 18:00:55

as sea levels rise the infrastructure will become uninsurable.....peoples homes will become worthless

i'd say that's definitely going to be "inconvenient"
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 08:05:31

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 09:28:04

Ibon and Tanada, trying to talk Doomies down from seeing Doom everywhere is simply futile.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 04:36:14

For those not allergic to science, even when it isn't stroking your own pet theories:

WaPo has a new article on GIS melt and slr: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... d7de56a51b

Greenland is melting from above and from below — and scientists say they’re connected

...there appears to be a crucial interaction between ice melting on an ice sheet’s surface, forming into pools and lakes, and ice falling directly into the ocean where glaciers, extending out from the ice sheet’s center, terminate in often extremely deep waters. But precisely how they work together — and how much they could speed Greenland’s melt — is only beginning to reveal itself...

...[surface lake] drainage has what they often refer to as a lubricating effect on the bottom of the ice sheet, helping it slide toward the sea. But Greenland’s future should include many more of these kinds of lakes..
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 07:56:08

Ibon wrote:
Let's assume we would have accelerated rising seas combined with a population with continued interest in coastal living. I thought of an interesting adaptation. Taking an example from the adaptation to tropical areas with frequest typhoons. In the Philippines for example rural coastal villages built dwellings raised on stilts of mangrove timber , split bamboo floors, mangroves for the framing and thatch palm for the roofs. This building style is a result of thousands of years of adaptation where rebuilding after wind and flooding destroyed villages. Your structure was practically disposable and replaced in a matter of weeks. mangrove framing was salvaged and renewable bamboo and palm thatch was replaced.

A modern application of this would be modular structures raised on columns, foundations, walls and roofs all designed with easily dismantled modular pods that can be transported inland when needed. This could be easily scaled up to relocate thousands or hundreds of thousands without a huge loss of resources as you would recycle the pods.

This is just an example of the possible resilience we could see in humans adapting to a dynamic system change of accelerated sea level rise.


Good idea. I suggest that each pod come with a diving board that can swivel out from the roof along with bolted on deck chairs

Good to know that low lying cities like Venice, Miami, Barcelona, New York etc have to be abandoned the refugees can easily be housed in mobile homes on stilts in new pod cities
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 09:52:55

Naw, not a problem. No need to move em. By then resource depletion, resistant infections, lack of water and civil discord through civil war will have killed off enough to have spare upland housing.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 10:39:17

dohboi wrote:For those not allergic to science, even when it isn't stroking your own pet theories:

WaPo has a new article on GIS melt and slr: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... d7de56a51b

Greenland is melting from above and from below — and scientists say they’re connected

...there appears to be a crucial interaction between ice melting on an ice sheet’s surface, forming into pools and lakes, and ice falling directly into the ocean where glaciers, extending out from the ice sheet’s center, terminate in often extremely deep waters. But precisely how they work together — and how much they could speed Greenland’s melt — is only beginning to reveal itself...

...[surface lake] drainage has what they often refer to as a lubricating effect on the bottom of the ice sheet, helping it slide toward the sea. But Greenland’s future should include many more of these kinds of lakes..
.


Maybe one day the misnomer of this country will become accurate. Verdant green pastures.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 13:36:26

No, more likely they'll be stripmined into an utter wasteland. :cry:
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 15:19:49

dohboi wrote:No, more likely they'll be stripmined into an utter wasteland. :cry:


Wait a minute, I though climate change was an extinction event. Whose going to stripmine Greenland?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 19:52:02

white males don't ya know
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 20:08:44

Newfie wrote:white males don't ya know


Indeed, those white dudes are the source of all evil!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kuidaskassikaeb » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 08:33:38

Question

Do all topics lead back to the white persecution complex?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Oct 2016, 15:52:37

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 15 Oct 2016, 15:23:08

https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/sta ... wsrc%5Etfw

The number of coastal flooding days has multiplied [about fourfold] in the last decades in South Florida
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 13:25:28

Ibon, you might want to consider these words of robertscribbler on the prospects for sea level rise effects on the Florida coast over the next decade plus, as you consider the timing for unloading your property there:
6-12 inches through 2030 as most likely scenario depending on location, rate of Gulf Stream slowdown, and rate of glacial melt in Antarctica (and, unfortunately, there are some low but concerning outside risks for more over this time-frame)


So, about a half to a full inch per year for the next dozen years or so (less in the beginning, more toward the end).

Less easy to predict is the year that panic will set in and all low lying coastal property values go to near zero, or worse. When what had been seen as valuable assets suddenly become seen as dangerous liabilities, chaos is likely to ensue.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/19/ ... ast-coast/

(In the comments section--rs is not a scientist, but is one of the best informed non-scientist I know of on these kinds of matters.)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 14:29:55

dohboi wrote:Ibon, you might want to consider these words of robertscribbler on the prospects for sea level rise effects on the Florida coast over the next decade plus, as you consider the timing for unloading your property there:
6-12 inches through 2030 as most likely scenario depending on location, rate of Gulf Stream slowdown, and rate of glacial melt in Antarctica (and, unfortunately, there are some low but concerning outside risks for more over this time-frame)


So, about a half to a full inch per year for the next dozen years or so (less in the beginning, more toward the end).

Less easy to predict is the year that panic will set in and all low lying coastal property values go to near zero, or worse. When what had been seen as valuable assets suddenly become seen as dangerous liabilities, chaos is likely to ensue.

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/19/ ... ast-coast/

(In the comments section--rs is not a scientist, but is one of the best informed non-scientist I know of on these kinds of matters.)


If that earlier estimate of 6mm per year the last two years is the decade trend then you are already talking about an inch every four years. With 13 years until 2030 that would be a minimum over 3 inches of rise without any accelleration at all. I think ultimately it depends on things like the collapse of the Larsen C ice shelf in the Antarctic and how much further sea terminating glaciers in Greenland retreat.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 20 Oct 2016, 14:51:17

For a while, anyway, the rates of slr are likely to be higher than the global averages because of anticipated shifts in ocean currents.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 21 Oct 2016, 04:55:12

AGU released their fall meeting videos in anticipation of this years fall meeting on YouTube. Here is the one about slr.

https://youtu.be/AqyTJkQecnY
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