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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 04 Oct 2016, 21:15:20

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 184443.htm

Historical records may underestimate global sea level rise

...our best historical sea level records tend to be located where past sea level rise was most likely less than the true global average...
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 14:27:20

@ d......is the global average from 2015 available somewhere?
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 14:44:02

dohboi wrote:KJ, YOU know nothing about ME, so kindly STFU.


tHaNk YoU! :) :) :) :lol: :lol: :lol:


No, I don't know the personal steps you have taken to minimize your Fossil Fuel consumption. I know what I did, and I published my lifestyle changes in these forum pages more than once.

You have not done so. You have never even acknowledged your own responsibility as a consumer. You can select green alternatives. You can reduce personal consumption. Yet all you ever do is blame the "richest corporations" for the things you do.

I have told you before that energy securities are mostly owned by elderly folks as part of their "blue chip" retirement mix. In fact if you have any form of a retirement account managed by a 3rd party, you probably have a major chunk of your own money in energy corporate securities.

In other words, you have been attacking yourself.

So please share with us (in general terms) what you have done to preserve the planet. Because I think you haven't done anything at all, and that is what eats at your conscience.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 06 Oct 2016, 01:03:30

KJ: I've shared plenty enough already. It's not my problem that you aren't paying attention, and I owe you no explanation for anything anyways.

Have a nice day! :-D :-D

kiwichick--I'll see if I can track something down, but others should pitch in if they have it at their finger tips. In any case, individual years don't tell you much since there can be quite a bit of variation in the such short term data, as I understand it.

ETA: The following link seems to indicate that the last reading in 2014 was 75.8 mm and the last in 2015 was 85.5, so that would be just short of a ten mm rise for 2015, much more than the long term average of about 3.4 mm/yr, but others should double check. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 00:14:39

My calculations show:

May 2011 54
May 2016 86

5 yrs 32mm = 6mm

So, about double the rate from 1995-2010, which was about 3mm.

So, say it doubles again in maybe the following decade, then it is 12mm/yr.

You can easily get to a meter by 2100 OR multiple meters. That is not good.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 07:32:50

dohboi wrote:KJ: I've shared plenty enough already. It's not my problem that you aren't paying attention, and I owe you no explanation for anything anyways.

Have a nice day! :-D :-D

kiwichick--I'll see if I can track something down, but others should pitch in if they have it at their finger tips. In any case, individual years don't tell you much since there can be quite a bit of variation in the such short term data, as I understand it.

ETA: The following link seems to indicate that the last reading in 2014 was 75.8 mm and the last in 2015 was 85.5, so that would be just short of a ten mm rise for 2015, much more than the long term average of about 3.4 mm/yr, but others should double check. http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/


Nope, you can't blow me off again. I scanned your posts last time you made your empty claim about lifestyle changes, and you haven't shared anything since. Which means that you are the rankest of hypocrites, unwilling to change anything which might possibly help the planet, while blaming others for the choices you make, and refusing to even acknowledge your own role in the destruction of the ecology.

I knew this, I didn't even have to ask. But I wanted everyone else that you interact with here to understand that you don't act in accordance with your claimed opinions, and all you do is blame others.

Now they know.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 11:36:51

I'll just say this to this a$$hole: I score 'less than one earth' on www.myfootprint.org

How are others doing on that one?
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 11:39:20

And congratulations, KJ--you are now the only person on my 'ignore' list.

Have a nice life. :-D
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 16:45:05

I count coup on the doughboy!
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 20:47:48

If rise really has doubled to 6mm per annum that adds up to roughly an inch every four years. Not exactly a tsunami, but about two feet of rise between now and the 2101.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 22:23:21

The question, T, is what is the doubling time.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 23:09:10

@ d..........+1
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 06:43:21

dohboi wrote:The question, T, is what is the doubling time.


If we accept the 1 meter per decade limit as being reasonable (historical examples range from 300mm to 600mm per decade maximums) then the most we can get will be 100mm per year and much lower amounts are increasingly more likely as you approach the current rate.

100mm is just under 4 inches, 60mm is 1.7 inches and the most likely result of 30mm is just over 1 inch, 1.18 inches.

This is not to down play sea level rise, but the historical limit when there were massive ice sheets in Europe, Asia, North America and even South America was 60mm. It seems incredibly unlikely to me that with just the remnant ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica left to melt the rate would exceed the 30mm rate. Taking that as a likely limit then you can double to 12mm and double again to 24mm per year, but it is extraordinarily unlikely you could double after that to 48mm per year.

So here is a scenario for you,
2000-2009 rise 3mm per annum.
2010-2019 rise 6mm per annum.
2020-2029 rise 24mm per annum (West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse scenario)

The WAIS is expected to contribute 5000mm of average sea level rise. How long does that take at 24mm per annum? 208 years. Okay you say, but we have geological examples of as much as 60mm per annum! Well if you insist, how long does it take for 5000mm rise at a rate of 60mm per year? 83 years. Yes for my worst case scenario of 100mm per year it only take 50 years.

I dunno about the rest of you reading this, but on a human time scale 50 years is a very long time, long enough to be born, mature, have children, have those children mature, and have grandchildren born without rushing any of the marriages.
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Re: Sea Level Rise

Unread postby diemos » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 09:37:03

meh.

Sea level rise is the effect that concerns me the least. When it arrives we will just move inland.

There will be much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth from those who loose their ocean side property but for humanity as a whole it will be a nothing burger.

I'm far more concerned about a collapse of the ocean food chain due to acidification and crop failure and famine due to disrupted weather patterns.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 17:37:29

One meter per decade for 50 years would cause unimaginable disasters and the collapse of global civilization.

Add to that the juice up mega storms with winds driving ever greater surges, and you are really drawing an apocalyptic picture for the hundreds of millions who live within a few meters of sea level. And as they flee the coasts, their numbers will overwhelm the communities of those of us who live further inland.

But if you all prefer to downplay the severity of such a scenario, knock yourselves out.

The standard you folks seem to be using is basically Hollywood apocalyptic film where the whole world comes apart in a day or two (or is saved from same instant fate by a cadre of brave men plus the obligatory smurfette :-D ).

I guess by that standard, you really don't have anything much to worry about at all!! Lucky you!!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 19:19:05

dohboi wrote:One meter per decade for 50 years would cause unimaginable disasters and the collapse of global civilization.

Add to that the juice up mega storms with winds driving ever greater surges, and you are really drawing an apocalyptic picture for the hundreds of millions who live within a few meters of sea level. And as they flee the coasts, their numbers will overwhelm the communities of those of us who live further inland.

But if you all prefer to downplay the severity of such a scenario, knock yourselves out.

The standard you folks seem to be using is basically Hollywood apocalyptic film where the whole world comes apart in a day or two (or is saved from same instant fate by a cadre of brave men plus the obligatory smurfette :-D ).

I guess by that standard, you really don't have anything much to worry about at all!! Lucky you!!


Did you actually read anything I posted/ Sure does not seem like you did. In the paleoclimate record the maximum sea level rise rate was 60mm per year for short periods during the Meltwater 1A period which had an average rate of 30mm per year. That was with the Laurentide ice sheet on North America and the equivalents in Asia and Europe all retreating at very great speeds. Those periods with 60mm per year are likely to have been when the ice dam broke creating the western Scablands in Idaho and Washington State and pouring into the North Atlantic. The other was when the ice dam in Hudson's Bay collapsed releasing the other large freshwater lake into the North Atlantic and stalling the Thermohaline Circulation.

1 Meter per decade is a truly catastrophic never before seen in the geological record rate of sea level rise/ ice melting. I meter per decade for 50 years is 15 feet, more or less, not 1000. There are lots of possible causes of civilization collapsing, but a meager 100 mm per year is unlikely to be one of them.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 21:48:52

@ t ............really???..............like to quote that to people living in Bangladesh , for example, or millions living in other Asian countries including China

not to mention the infrastructure in developed countries which will be overwhelmed or will need to be moved

we are increasing GHG's at 30 times faster than ever before in the geological record of this planet......it would seem , therefore logical that sea level rise could also increase far faster than ever before

if all the ice melts sea levels will rise by at least 60 metres
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 00:11:29

Thanks, k. T really does seem to be talking out of his hat here.

I'll just mention a few cities and regions that will be under water with a five meter sea level rise, in no particular order.

• Shanghai, largest city in China and (by 'city proper') in the world; 34 million in the metro area; elevation 4 meters; nearly $2Trillion in assets would be threatened with just a .5 m slr.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai --and most of the province of Jiangsu to its north with some 80 million people in it.

• Newark/New York and environs--we saw how even with current sea levels, one cat 1 (by wind speed) hurricane put the entire metro region out of commission.

• Miami, elevation 2 meters; 5+ million people; $3.5 Trillion in assets threatened with just .5 meter slr. (not to mention Miami Beach, elevation 1.2 meters, and much of the rest of coastal Florida and beyond).

• New Orleans and most of southern Louisiana

• Bangkok, metro pop ~15 million, elevation 1.5 meters. $Trillion + in assets at risk with just .5 meter slr.

• Kolkata (formerly Calcutta), 3rd largest metropolitan area in India; over 14 million; the entire seaward side of the city would be under water with just a 2meter slr: http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-e ... els-2014-4
• Dhaka and much of southern Bangladesh
• Tianjin and environs
• Ho Chi Minh City and the entire southern peninsula of Vietnam
• Guangzhou and environs
• Much of Mumbai (formerly Bombay)
• Much of Karachi and the coast of Pakistan from their to the Indian border and beyond
...
http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/

Note that these are important regional and international cities and center of trade.

I could go on and on, but most will get the point that a five meter slr will be enormously disruptive by itself to global civilization and devastating to many important countries and regions.

But when you add on top of slr the ever increasing intensity of storms, it should be obvious to anyone not insisting on welding rose colored glasses onto their faces that bau will not be able to function in a world 5 meters of slr + other crushing effects of GW.

In general, nearly half of the global population now lives within about 60 miles of a coast. This half of humanity will be more and more directly effected by slr, or by neighbors moving away from slr, and/or by increasingly intense storms coming in from the over heated and newly elevated seas with storm surges driving ever higher and ever further inland.

Further:

"two-thirds of world's largest cities — cities with more than five million people — are at least partially in these low areas."
"Roughly one in 10 persons in the world lives in this low-elevation coastal zone" http://www.npr.org/templates/story/stor ... Id=9162438
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 07:35:00

There is a high probability that these zones will be substantially depopulated due to other events prior to that much SLR.

SLR is a problem because of all the pollution that will be washed into the oceans.

We have some understanding of the rate of sea level progression, the worst effects are some time off.

However the pillars that hold sustain our population are wobbly and grow more so daily as the population increases. Look back at The Limits to Growth projections and you will that as soon as one trend line collapses they all follow in short order. That is the effect of the interconnectedness.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 08:25:13

kiwichick wrote:@ t ............really???..............like to quote that to people living in Bangladesh , for example, or millions living in other Asian countries including China

not to mention the infrastructure in developed countries which will be overwhelmed or will need to be moved

we are increasing GHG's at 30 times faster than ever before in the geological record of this planet......it would seem , therefore logical that sea level rise could also increase far faster than ever before

if all the ice melts sea levels will rise by at least 60 metres


Yes really! You are behaving as if this is a tsunami event that will over night overwhelm the local population. It is a long slow grind, even at the greatest plausible melting rate. At the most likely melting rate it will still require a century, possibly longer, for a 10 meter sea level rise. Beyond that several centuries for the entire 60-75 meters of global ice melt driven plus thermal expansion of sea level.

Reality is not a Hollywood movie. Even if humans manage to flip the climate over into hothouse state as I fear we will what does that mean for the ice caps and sea level rise?

It means the Arctic ocean becomes mostly sea ice free year around, as does the ocean surrounding Antarctica. Next the ice shelves and ice tongues around the Arctic and Antarctica break up and collapse into sea ice and melt. Neither of those effects has a large impact on sea level, both categories of ice are already floating and displacing the same volume of water they will be when liquefied.

Next the remaining mountain glaciers will melt and redistribute their ice back into the hydro-logical cycle. Though most glaciers are relatively small compared to the large ice sheets near the poles all of them together add up to about half a meter of sea level rise.

Next is thermal expansion, current estimates are because of the massive heat capacity of the worlds oceans we will get about 10-20 cm per century of sea level rise from thermal expansion.

That leaves just the three massive ice sheets, Greenland, West Antarctica and East Antarctica. When the ice shelves and tongues break up and melt that removes the buttress effect and allows the land portions of the ice mass to accelerate for a period of time. We observed this effect in 2002-2004 when the Larsen B ice shelf disintegrated. The mountain glaciers that had been feeding into Larsen B underwent a period of rapid thinning as they had unrestricted access to the sea level termination zones. They loss about 25 percent of their mass as they thinned, then they resumed normal progression like they had before the ice shelf formed.

Newer deep Chanel mapping has revealed that in different locations such as Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica and Petermann Glacier in Greenland there is a deep canyon that permits warmer sub surface water to intrude and erode the base of the ice cliffs. This will have the effect of causing the ice front to calve rapidly whenever the height above water exceeds 100 meters. Counteracting this rapid retreat effect; these melt pathways pass through relatively narrow canyons. As a result the icebergs formed by the retreat will form a melange field. You can picture this as a million objects trying to get through a funnel, in effect they collide with one another and block the exit into the open ocean. As a result the effect limits the rate at which the ice can melt, the mass of bergs act to insulate the calving front from the warm water intrusion. In effect the melange acts like an ice tongue. Under hothouse earth conditions the ice melts from above and the melt water drains off of the ice sheet through Moulin channels and that water flows under the ice sheet to the deep canyons where it also acts to counter the warm water intrusions.

As a result of all these factors the ice melt proceeds at a rapid but not Hollywood special effects level speed. An elderly person can easily outpace the needed retreat rate from the coast, and because of the replacement time needed for infrastructure newer infrastructure can be built up slope from the shore long before the existing infrastructure becomes useless and swamped.

Yes sea level rise is a bad thing. Yes sea level rise will cause population displacement and loss of existing infrastructure. Yes storm activity like storm surge and things like salt water intrusion into fresh water sources will be damaging effects.

However, even in the maximum plausible scientific projections the sea level rise will not be a severe overnight threat to civilization or coastal cities. Infrastructure from commercial buildings, docks, houses, pretty much anything you care to name has a limited lifespan because of modern construction methods. The same was true of the ancient world. We think of the Great Wall of China and the Pyramids in Egypt and Mexico and the Pantheon in Rome because they were built of stone and so they have survived millennia. However the very vast majority of structures in all of these ancient cultures were built of wood and mud and adobe blocks. In the UK you find castles of stone, but the villages of mud daub plaster housing have long since decayed back into their basic elements and been recycled through the ecosystem.

As sea level rise encroaches people will move. It may be expensive and inconvenient, but it is not a disaster. On the other side of the coin people could take steps right now to retreat to levels of 2 or 3 meters greater altitude. Then a decade from now they can retreat another meter above mean sea level, and so on. By doing it sensibly structures can be demolished or moved and roads rebuilt in better locations.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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