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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 24 May 2017, 12:55:11

Ibon wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/22/scientists-say-the-rate-of-sea-level-rise-has-nearly-tripled-since-1990/?utm_term=.d35497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990



Damn, do I have to sell now my Florida properties? I think it's getting close.

ummm, better sooner than later Ibon. Not just SLR but big economic downturn looms ahead :)
As we talked about, one bad hurricane could tilt the RE into panic or least wariness mode on the part of public and pertinent players in the RE market
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 24 May 2017, 14:31:23

The above article postulates unprecedented SLR. It is an outlier article on the alarmist side, which is why that silly rag The Washington Post bothered to publish it. It will not likely stand up to peer review, and has not yet.

Even if you accepted the higher bound given in that article for SLR - 5.9 inches per decade - that is only about +43 inches change remaining this century, and plenty of time to relocate people, buildings, and farmlands. I estimate that on Nantucket my Grandkids will walk about 1/2 mile to the beach then, when the figure is 3/4 mile today. A few multi million dollar beach homes are lost there each decade anyways. That is less impact to the owners of such homes than on the opposite side of the island where the beach is building up and getting wider. Those folks are seeing property values plummet as they get further from the water, and storm insurance doesn't help them.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 May 2017, 15:18:17

Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 24 May 2017, 15:35:49

dohboi wrote:Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092


It's time for a variety of reasons, some personal but this SLR issue is definitely playing a role. Down town Fort Lauderdale is putting in high density residences and growing. Managing the short term rentals from a far is a head ache at times. The earnings are less, the taxation way up, I hate to feed the parasites.

What to do with the proceeds? Still don't have a plan
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 May 2017, 21:07:23

It's of course much easier to coach from the sidelines. Things are always a whole lot more complicated when you're in the middle of the game. Hope it all works out for the best for you and yours.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 25 May 2017, 07:54:50

dohboi wrote:It's of course much easier to coach from the sidelines. Things are always a whole lot more complicated when you're in the middle of the game. Hope it all works out for the best for you and yours.


Yes that is true and in there is also this desire to divest ourselves down to a much simpler equation. I don't even pretend anymore to have any handle on markets and trends and timing. At this point my wife and I just want to reduce complexity in our lives and sell of assets to achieve this.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 May 2017, 11:00:32

Ibon wrote:
dohboi wrote:Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092


It's time for a variety of reasons, some personal but this SLR issue is definitely playing a role. Down town Fort Lauderdale is putting in high density residences and growing. Managing the short term rentals from a far is a head ache at times. The earnings are less, the taxation way up, I hate to feed the parasites.

What to do with the proceeds? Still don't have a plan


We have a 4 unit brownstone in center city Philadelphia. SLR is not a concern. Urban unrest is. Until last year we lived in the building and that made it convienient to manage it. It works wonders when you see the delinquent every day, you can encourage compliance in subtle ways and confront when necessary.

Now that we have moved onto the boat we have a building manager who is supposed to do everything. A moderate success. The Wife now nags him rather than me, which is wonderful. He is somewhat less responsive than I which is a bit troubling.

But we are in a wonderful neighborhood and typically have young medical professionals who are not interested in screwing up their credit. Location, location, location.

But prices are up now and we have a lot of real store contact us to sell the house. My take is that the upper brackets are Leary of the market and are seeking real estate as a alternative investment. Which is to say, where do you out the proceeds?

Perhaps you just. It a different place in a different local and different neighborhood?

It it's a funny thing, clearly you don't really NEED the money, although it's nice to have. So it shows how rich you are. And how silly the riches endless pursuit of more money is. Congrats, you have a good problem.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 May 2017, 13:32:48

"The Wife now nags him rather than me"

Now that is a success!! :-D :-D

Parts of Phili will, in fact, flood, even with three feet of slr. Here's the NOAA tool for expected effect of slr on the US: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/ ... dAccretion
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 May 2017, 22:23:31

Y 3' of SLR I'll be long dead.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 May 2017, 00:54:08

Maybe. I certainly don't wish you dead any time soon.

But just to point out...Richard Alley, perhaps the world's top glaciologist, who is near 60, when asked if he thought that Thwaites would collapse into the sea before he died, said he could no longer rule that out.

So I guess the real question is...do you feel lucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A732Cuuo2tI

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/ ... s-3-meters

But yeah, the highest probability is that other GW (or economic or nuclear...) mayhem will more likely have devastating effects on oldsters like us than slr will, except for those quite near sea level.

"A relatively small amount of melting over a few decades...will inexorably lead to the destabilization of the entire ice sheet and the rise of global sea levels by as much as 3 meters."
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 26 May 2017, 07:13:39

This is a bit off topic but you guys talking about events out living your life span got me to thinking. When you consider SLR and the suite of consequences approaching our modern civilization you run these scenarios in your mind and project into the future imaging outcomes. And then you realize your only going to be around a few more decades at most. I feel this regret that I wont be around to see where we end up. The scientific curiosity is where the regret comes from, not that I wish to live for centuries. In some ways pondering this only leads to a certain frustration, the reverse of what I felt as a kid that I would never be able to actually be in a primordial swamp full of dinosaurs!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 26 May 2017, 07:38:15

I am sure this is what many scientists must be feeling now. A mix of intellectual fascination along with sheer dread knowing the full magnitude of what is coming. Some like Professor Paul Ehrlich (Population Bomb) who is about 85 years old now, know they will certainly miss the fireworks. So, you can imagine the ambiguous nature of their feelings
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 May 2017, 08:24:26

No need to imagine it, perfectly aware of it first hand.

And, if you look through your kids and grandkids eyes you can see some of what they face. So my genes will experience this dubious future. Little messengers from me going forth.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 May 2017, 09:08:26

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 May 2017, 15:05:51

At least for now, global sea level rise continues it's multi decade pattern of reverting to the trend of 3+ mm of rise per year.

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/ ... level.html

The little plateau in the slr graph over the last year or so must have something to do with El Nino, though I can't quite figure how or what. Any ideas out there?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 29 May 2017, 16:20:08

dohboi wrote:At least for now, global sea level rise continues it's multi decade pattern of reverting to the trend of 3+ mm of rise per year.

https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/ ... level.html

The little plateau in the slr graph over the last year or so must have something to do with El Nino, though I can't quite figure how or what. Any ideas out there?


When El Nino caused a lot of rain and snow far inland in 1997-98 it took three years for all that moisture to make its way to the sea so there was a pause IIRC.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 30 May 2017, 07:32:56

Thanks, sub. That occurred to me just after I wrote it, but I wondered if anyone else would see it.

I guess all that extra sea surface warmth really kicks the hydrological cycle into overdrive!

I note that the extra water vapor in the atmosphere in the mean time (before it rains out) is a (mostly) positive feedback that makes el nino years even hotter than they would be without that feedback.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Azothius » Tue 30 May 2017, 14:10:23

The Ghost of Climate-Change Future
As record-breaking high tides overwhelm Hawaii, people are getting a preview of what life will be like in the decades to come.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/05/the-ghost-of-climate-change-future/528471/

The water is everywhere.

For the second time in a month, Hawaii’s coastlines have been swamped by epic tides. The phenomenon, known as a king tide, is actually a convergence of a few different factors: high lunar tides, rising sea levels associated with last year’s strong El Niño and climate change, swirling pockets of ocean eddies, and a robust south swell—that is, big waves rolling onto south-facing shores.

King tides happen routinely in the Hawaiian Islands—a few times a year, usually—but this year’s batch have been particularly extreme. Data from federal tide stations around Hawaii show that water levels have been up to six inches above predicted tidal heights since early last year. In April, levels peaked at more than nine inches above predicted tides and broke the record high for any water level around Hawaii since 1905. Scientists say the record is likely to be broken again in 2017.

Several Honolulu roadways have been submerged. Beaches have been washed out. Beachfront hotels have canceled shorefront entertainment and readied generators. Property owners living near the coasts were told to move electronics and other valuables up to the second floor of their houses and park their cars elsewhere. People photographed fish swimming down the streets. And all around the islands, small mountains of sand have been deposited in parking lots and other strange places—spots the waves should never reach.

For the people of Hawaii, alarm bells are ringing. King tides like this aren’t just a historic anomaly; they’re a sign of what’s to come. “Within a few decades this will be the new normal,” said Chip Fletcher, associate dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at the University of Hawaiʻi, in a university statement. “Hawaii should consider this a practice run, and reevaluate policies and development practices accordingly.”
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 17 Aug 2017, 10:51:13

A heads-up for Ibon ...

Florida Flood Risk Study Identifies Priorities for Property Buyouts

A study of flood damage in Florida by scientists at UC Santa Cruz and the Nature Conservancy proposes prioritizing property buyouts based on flood risk, ecological value, and socioeconomic conditions. Forecasters say an above-normal hurricane season is likely in the Atlantic Ocean this year, while a rising sea level is making Florida increasingly vulnerable to dangerous flooding.

The study shows the location of more than 15,000 repetitive loss properties in Florida which, collectively, filed more than 40,000 claims against the National Flood Insurance Program between 1978 and 2011 (more than 1,200 claims per year, on average). As of March 2016, the National Flood Insurance Program, which is up for reauthorization in 2017, owed the U.S. Treasury $23 billion.

"This study identified properties and surrounding land in Florida where buyouts can reduce future flood risk to socially vulnerable communities and simultaneously promote the restoration of the floodplain to a more natural condition," said lead author Juliano Calil. "We identified almost 150 properties in Miami-Dade County alone that are located in areas where these objectives are very well aligned."

Juliano Calil et al, Aligning Natural Resource Conservation, Flood Hazard Mitigation, and Social Vulnerability Remediation in Florida, Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics (2017). DOI: 10.15351/2373-8456.1074

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https://www.researchgate.net/figure/319 ... -and-TNC's
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 19 Aug 2017, 10:58:55

Nice link and article, vox, but that map seems a bit...optimistic, perhaps?

Meanwhile:
Federal Flood Insurance Rebuilds Homes Over and Over, Trapping Residents in Flood-Prone Areas

"The National Flood Insurance Program was designed to help Americans recover from flood disasters, but it can also unintentionally trap homeowners who would prefer to move somewhere safer," the NRDC said on its website. "Instead of moving out of harm’s way, many policyholders find themselves rebuilding their homes again and again."

https://weather.com/amp/science/environ ... apped.html
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